Global Economic Briefing: China International Reserves & Capital Flows December 15, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents PBOC Balance Sheet 3 International Reserves 4-6 December 15, 217 / China International Reserves & Capital Flows www.
PBOC Balance Sheet 6.2 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 Figure 1. PBOC ASSETS (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 6.2 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.2.7.7 Total Assets (5.5) Foreign Exchange Assets (3.3) Nongold International Reserves Held by China (IMF data) (3.1).2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: People s Bank of China and IMF..2 85 8 75 Figure 2. PBOC ASSETS (percent) Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets 85 8 75 7 7 65 65 6 55 6 55 5 5 45 45 4 35 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: People s Bank of China and IMF. 4 35 Page 3 / December 15, 217 / China International Reserves & Capital Flows www.
45 4 Figure 3. CHINA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars, nsa) International Reserves 45 4 35 35 3 3 25 2 Non-Gold International Reserves (IMF) Holdings of US Treasury Securities* 25 2 15 15 1 Oct 1 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 5 * Includes private and official accounts. Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund. 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 Figure 4. CHINA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars, yearly change) Non-Gold International Reserves (IMF) Holdings of US Treasury Securities* 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 5-5 -15-25 -35-45 -55-65 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 15 5-5 -15-25 -35-45 -55-65 * Includes private and official accounts. Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund. Page 4 / December 15, 217 / China International Reserves & Capital Flows www.
1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Figure 5. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars) Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit (12-month sum) Non-Gold International Reserves (12-month change) 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. International Reserves 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -1-11 -12-13 Figure 6. CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* (billion dollars) 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -1-11 -12-13 * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 5 / December 15, 217 / China International Reserves & Capital Flows www.
International Reserves 5 Figure 7. CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN 5.5 4 6. 3 Non-Gold International Reserves (trillion dollars, nsa) (3.1) 6.5 Yuan/US$ (inverted scale) (6.6) 7. 2 7.5 1 8. 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics. 8.5 Page 6 / December 15, 217 / China International Reserves & Capital Flows www.
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