By: Eng. Munyaradzi C Munodawafa Chief Executive London 26 26 October 2016 ZAMBEZI RIVER AUTHORITY Presentation to the Africa PPP Conference On the Development of the Batoka Gorge Hydro-Electric Scheme on the Zambezi River
Presentation Outline The Zambezi River Authority The Batoka Gorge Hydro-Electric Scheme (BGHES) Project Implementation Plan Project Benefits Proposed modes of Project Development for the BGHES Project Market Sounding Why Invest in Batoka GHES Project Concluding Remarks
INTRODUCTION THE ZAMBEZI RIVER AUTHORITY
Brief Overview of Zambezi River Authority Zambezi River Authority was formed by Parallel legislation simultaneously passed by Acts of Parliament in Zambia and Zimbabwe on October 1987. (Acts No. 17 and 19 of 1987, respectively)
ZRA Mandate To contribute to the economic, industrial and social development of the Republics of Zambia & Zimbabwe through, obtaining the greatest possible benefit from the natural advantages offered by the waters of the Zambezi River (between Zambia & Zimbabwe) and improving and intensifying the utilisation of the waters for the production of hydropower and for any other purpose beneficial to the two countries
THE BATOKA GORGE HYDRO-ELECTRIC SCHEME
Planned Developments on the Zambezi River
Project Location ZAMBIA NAMIBIA BOTSWANA ZIMBABWE
Batoka GHES Implementation Plan Legal and Financial Transaction Advisory Services to be concluded by second Quarter of 2017 By Ernst & Young Advisory Services (Pty) Ltd, South Africa. Environmental & Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) to be concluded by First Quarter of 2017 By Environmental Resources Management, South Africa. Updating of Engineering Feasibility Studies to be concluded by First Quarter of 2017 By Studio Pietrangeli, Italy
Batoka GHES Implementation Plan (Continued) Mobilisation of funds by 1 st Quarter of 2018 Procurement of developers/contractors by Mid 2019 Construction period, 5 years Commissioning by 2022
Batoka Gorge Scheme Layout (2400 MW)
Line to Muzuma Line to Hwange Line to Chakari
Batoka GHES Project Benefits Batoka puts both nations in a stable and resilient position with regard to the following: Improved power supplies and reserves Competitive cost of electricity Security and reliability of supplies Availability of electricity for new and energy intensive investments e.g. smelters Batoka takes the renewable energy sources in electricity from 42% to 80%. There by moving the nation towards a compliance position with regard to CO2 emissions performance
Project Benefits (Continued) Batoka unlocks the Kariba Dam Reservoir functionality that could not be exploited to the full to this end. This brings about significant operational flexibility that could not be realised when Kariba is operating as Base load with significant savings on operational costs. Conjunctive operation of Batoka with Kariba and other power plants to result in significant reduction of the cost of operating the power system due to significantly lower costs of keeping system reserves and response.
Batoka GHES Project Benefits (Continued) Working towards Integrating Africa The Project will enhance Infrastructure development that links markets across countries The Project will meeting the demands of cross-border energy requirements. Batoka is a Cross-Border Project and has potential to feed into Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) through ZIZABONA and East Africa Power Interconnector. Power development along the Zambezi Basin has been recognized by SAPP as the backbone for regional transmission system stability.
BGHES DEVELOPMENT MODES
Proposed Modes of Development Commercial Structure 1 Public Ownership & Financing Public Financing and ownership model Assumes that the dam will owned by the Authority, Each Country's Utilities, ZESCO Ltd (in Zambia) and ZESA (in Zimbabwe), to own the respective north and south power plants respectively.
Proposed Modes of Development Commercial Structure 2 Public Private Partnership (PPP), Ownership & Financing assumes that the dam will be developed and owned by the Authority and; Power plants to be developed, owned and financed by a combination of the private sector and each country s utility-zesco and ZESA on the north and south banks respective.
Project Market Sounding As part of Project Preparation, Market Sounding activity was conducted to introduce the Project to the market, excite market interest and obtain feedback to facilitate market informed and suited packaging.
Market Sounding Outcomes - Construction Contractors It is believed interface risks can be covered by engaging the construction contractor(s) under one contract, and manage contractually with guarantees. The lead contractor role was the main option for most respondents, open to creating a joint venture. Both development modes are acceptable. It is believed that Project financing may be secured through local and international commercial banks. Maximising ECA finance should be a priority. Some respondents prefer an EPC + Financing structure and others a lump-sum turn-key EPC contract type for both the dam and the power plants. They indicated this method would be the quickest to reach contractual close. The total construction period estimated to be 4 5 years, depending on the development structure adopted.
Market Sounding Outcomes - Equity Investors Bankable offtake with government support will be required Sovereign, political risk guarantees/insurance required. Other products such as MIGA insurance were also considered. Majority of Equity participants preferred development mode 2 PPP structure A primary concern was the interface risks - the procurement of the Dam construction contractor should be coordinated with the Powerhouses to mitigate timing and interface risks (Project on Project Risk) Expected post-tax US$ equity returns ranging from 15% to 19%
Market Sounding Outcomes Debt Providers Most respondents would only be interested in lending to the power plants under a PPP project finance framework and do not believe the dam developments are appropriate for project financing. The preferred option is development mode 2 IPP/PPP option. This option attracts a wider debt market and brings in private financiers reducing the strain on government s balance sheet. Governments will need to stand behind commitments to payments under the PPA and government termination liabilities. Additionally, a letter of credit for electricity payments would need to be given by the off-takers. Additional finance should be raised as contingency for potential cost overruns under dam project
Market Sounding Debt Providers (Continued) Appropriate political risk insurance via a highly credible entity like MIGA, PRG or the better ECA s should be in place. Concern around interface risks - the financing and procurement of the Dam should be coordinated with the Power Plants to mitigate timing and interface risks. Another consideration is who takes on the risk that the Power Plants are ready before the Dam is ready. Borrowers should be protected in the case that the Dam is not completed in time. PPAs between Utilities and Power Plant Companies should have back to back PPAs with other regional Utilities (e.g. BPC, NamPower, ESCOM)
Market Sounding Outcomes Other Participants SAPP has number of interconnection projects they are currently working on (including ZIZABONA) and that they are also currently working on a regional demand model which should be published by the end of the year.
The CASE FOR INVESTING IN BGHES Project WHY INVEST IN BATOKA GORGE HYDRO ELECTRIC SCHEME
Why Invest in Batoka GHES Project PPP Opportunities The use of PPP Model gives an opportunity for Private-Sector investors to invest for a sound return on the investment with potential partnerships with the two Governments. Financeability High chances of successfully funding the investments at best value for money. Competitive Tension The ability to generate competitive tension in procurement of equipment, goods and services. Innovation Capacity The ability to enhance Project value through innovation in financing, design, construction and operations & maintenance
Why Invest in Batoka GHES Project (Cont d) Working relationships - creating efficient and productive working relationships between the public and private sector through introduction of private sector discipline, commercial attitudes, technology and innovations. Government debt - The process helps to reduce government debt frees up public capital, thereby relieving Government Balance sheet and creating fiscal space to spend on other government project and services. Project risk Analysis, Risk Management and Risk Transfer - examination of risks is fully done meaning that cost estimates are robust and investment decisions are based on better information.
Why Invest in Batoka GHES Project (Cont d) Injection of Private Sector expertise Project Delivery within time and budgets Development of local private sector business through joint-ventures/partnerships Ready Market for Power Backed up by Regional Connectivity and Transmission Infrastructure. There is a case for wider benefit to the public through creation of employment directly and indirectly through support industries.
Concluding Remarks The BGHES is a priority project including one of the PIDA project for Africa. Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD). NEPAD Methodology has identified BGHES as having Regional Impact in increasing Regional Energy Trade, Improve SAPP Energy Generation Mix (through green hydro-power) and improve the Zambezi River Dam Construction. BGHES Project was nominated as a NEPAD Presidential Infrastructure Champion Initiative and enjoys support at the highest levels of the participating government, with both governments having in place strong and attractive legal framework for PPP. The two Governments have requested AfDB to be funding Lead Arrangers.
Concluding Remarks (Cont d) To the investment community: construction contractors, equity and debt financiers as well as Bi-lateral and Multilateral financiers and other inventors you are welcome to follow the developments of the BGHES as we prepare the Project to the Procurement Stage. Zambezi River Authority, being the implementing agent of the BGHES, is available to be contacted and we are ready to make any clarifications on the project status and development, in consultation with the Principals (the two Contracting States) and the Utilities, ZESCO Ltd and ZESA Holdings.
THANK YOU
Questions We are happy to take any questions and clarifications on the BGHES Project