Global Economic Indictors: & Global Economy December 14, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Commodity Price Indexes 1-5 December 14, 2017 / & Global Economy www.
Commodity Price Indexes 650 Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS 21 19 550 Jul 17 Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) 15 450 13 11 350 9 7 250 5 3 Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. 650 Figure 2. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS 180 170 160 550 450 Volume of World Exports (5=100, sa) Sep 150 140 130 120 110 100 350 90 80 70 250 60 50 40 Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. Page 1 / December 14, 2017 / & Global Economy www.
Commodity Price Indexes Figure 3. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS INDEX & WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 135 130 Spot Price Index Sep 125 120 World Industrial Production (5=100) 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 75 70 Figure 4. S&P REVENUES & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES Q3 325 S&P Revenues (using dollars per share) 275 250 225 175 150 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 125 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau. Page 2 / December 14, 2017 / & Global Economy www.
Commodity Price Indexes 80 Figure 5. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 85 90 95 100 105 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 110 115 120 125 130 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. -18-16 -14-12 -10-8 -6-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Figure 6. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 12/8 ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. 65 55 45 35 25 15 5-5 -15-25 -35-45 Page 3 / December 14, 2017 / & Global Economy www.
Figure 7. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS & COPPER PRICES Commodity Price Indexes Copper Price** (cents per pound) 100 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ** Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Wall Street Journal. Figure 8. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (daily) 1 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) 1000 0 Source: MSCI and Commodity Research Bureau. Page 4 / December 14, 2017 / & Global Economy www.
Figure 9. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* & CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION China: Industrial Production** (yearly percent change) Commodity Price Indexes 25 20 15 10 Nov 5 1998 1999 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 ** Value added basis. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and Commodity Research Bureau. 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0.8.6.4.2.0 Figure 10. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & EXPECTED INFLATION Expected Inflation in 10-Year TIPS* Index 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Yield spread between 10-year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS. Source: Federal Reserve Board, US Treasury, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 5 / December 14, 2017 / & Global Economy www.
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