Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX December 15, 17 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-56 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Germany s DAX Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Earnings Growth & Valuation 4 December 15, 17 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
Stock Price Index 1 1 Figure 1. DAX INDEX* 12/15 1 1 8 8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 -day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. 1 Figure 2. DAX INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION x14 1 1 DAX Index 12/15/17 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 12/7/17 1 x 8 8 x6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / December 15, 17 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
Earnings 115 85 Figure 3. DAX INDEX OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 17 18 19 115 85 7 7 55 55 4 4 25 25 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. Figure 4. DAX INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* Nov - - - - - -4 NERI Sep -7.69 Oct -5.37 Nov -4.72 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - -4 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 2 / December 15, 17 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
17 Figure 5. DAX INDEX REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins 17 18 19 17 15 15 1 1 1 1 9 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 9 7 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. 8. 7.5 Figure 6. DAX INDEX PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 8. 7.5 7. 7. 6.5 19 6.5 6. 17 18 6. 5.5 5.5 5. 5. 4.5 4. Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (6.2) 4.5 4. 3.5 3.5 3. 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 3. * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / December 15, 17 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
8 7 6 Figure 7. DAX INDEX LTEG VS STEG (percent) Earnings Growth & Valuation LTEG* (11.) STEG* (.) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4-1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - * STEG: 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected growth. LTEG: 5-year consensus expected growth. Monthly data through 5, weekly thereafter. 35 25 Figure 8. DAX INDEX VALUATION Forward P/E* (13.3) 35 25 15 15 5 3. 2.5 2. Relative P/E** (.8) PEG Ratio*** (1.2) 5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1.5 1..5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1..5 * Price divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. ** Forward P/E relative to MSCI World forward P/E. *** Forward P/E relative to consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Page 4 / December 15, 17 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
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