Market Briefing: US Interest Rates December 11, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-972-783 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-4-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-4-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Government Bond Yield 1 US Mortgage Rate & Bond Yield 2 US High-Yield Corporate Bond Yield & Spread 3 US Municipal Yield & Spread 4 Investment Grade 5 December 11, 217 / Market Briefing: US Interest Rates www.
18 1 Figure 1. US TREASURY 1-YEAR BOND YIELD (percent, monthly) US Government Bond Yield 18 1 14 14 12 12 1 Yield (2.35) 1 8 8 4 4 2 Nov 2 53 55 57 59 1 3 5 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Haver Analytics.. 5.5 Figure 2. US TREASURY 1-YEAR BOND YIELD (percent, daily). 5.5 5. 5. 4.5 4.5 4. Yield (2.39) 4. 2.5 2. 2.5 2. 1.5 1. 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 21 217 Source: Haver Analytics. 1.5 1. Page 1 / December 11, 217 / Market Briefing: US Interest Rates www.
.5. 5.5 5. Figure 3. US INTEREST RATES (percent) US Mortgage Rate & Bond Yield 3-Year Mortgage Rate (3.88) 1-Year Treasury Yield (2.39).5. 5.5 5. 4.5 4.5 4. 4. 2.5 2. 2.5 2. 1.5 1. 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 21 217 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1.5 1. 35 Figure 4. 3-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE MINUS 1-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD (basis points) 35 3 3 25 25 7/5 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 21 217 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 2 / December 11, 217 / Market Briefing: US Interest Rates www.
24 21 Figure 5. US High-Yield Corporate Bond Yield & Spread US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BOND COMPOSITE (percent) 24 21 18 18 15 Yield (5.78) 15 12 12 9 9 3 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 21 217 218 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 3 2 Figure. YIELD SPREAD: US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 1-YEAR TREASURY (basis points) 2 18 18 1 1 14 1 Spread (339) 14 1 8 8 4 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 21 217 218 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4 Page 3 / December 11, 217 / Market Briefing: US Interest Rates www.
Figure 7. US AAA MUNICIPAL YIELD (percent) US Municipal Yield & Spread 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 21 217 218 Source: Merrill Lynch. 1 Figure 8. US AAA MUNICIPAL BOND YIELD LESS 1-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SPREAD (basis points) 5 5-5 -5 - - - 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 21 217 218 Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. - Page 4 / December 11, 217 / Market Briefing: US Interest Rates www.
3.8 3.7 3. 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2. Investment Grade Figure 9. BOFA MERRILL LYNCH CORPORATE MASTER: EFFECTIVE YIELD 212 213 214 215 21 217 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Haver Analytics. 3.8 3.7 3. 3.4 3.3 12/8 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2. 175 Figure 1. BOFA MERRILL LYNCH CORPORATE MASTER: EFFECTIVE YIELD MINUS 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD (basis points) 175 125 125 75 12/8 75 5 5 25 212 213 214 215 21 217 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Haver Analytics. 25 Page 5 / December 11, 217 / Market Briefing: US Interest Rates www.
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