1 Sep = 21.9 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 20.6 Bn USD %YoY Oct = 20.0 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 19.9 Bn USD Share P P P H1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct %MoM sa Agriculture 7.0-6.2 19.8 19.2 28.4 9.8 10.2-5.2 Fishery 1.0 15.1 6.5 10.4 11.5 2.4-3.6-5.4 Manufacturing 87.2-1.2 9.1 12.5 9.6 7.8 14.4 1.0 Agro-manufacturing Products 12.0 1.0 9.7 11.9 13.9 12.3 18.6 2.4 Electronics and Optical Appliances Export Value 16.0-2.3 14.2 17.6 10.6 7.0 9.9 1.8 Electrical Appliances 5.8 3.5 6.8 4.1 3.1-2.0 6.9-2.1 Automotive 15.5 3.2 2.5 2.3 2.6 6.0 25.1 7.3 Machinery & Equipment 8.9-0.3 7.8 11.5 13.2 8.3 2.2-2.1 Petroleum Related 10.6-12.5 19.6 20.3 19.3 24.4 24.9-1.1 Total (BOP basis).0 0.1 7.3 7.9 12.5 13.4 13.4-5.6 Ex. Gold - -1.6 9.5 9.8 11.2 8.9 14.1-0.2 Ex. Gold+Petroleum related - 0.0 8.3 8.5 10.2 7.1 12.7-0.1 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data 70 60 Thai Export to Major Destinations Index sa, 3mma ( =) Ex.gold 130 Index sa, 3mma ( =) 115 105 95 85 75 * ex. Aircraft and other manufacturing Asian Export Performance China EU US Japan* ASEAN5 ME ID ex.oil & Gas TH ex.gold KR TW MY SG CN
2 H1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct P YTD No. of tourists ( 000) 32,530 17,324 8,130 8,777 2,556 2,724 28,825 %YoY 8.9 4.9 8.3 6.4 5.7 20.9 6.7 %QoQsa, %MoMsa - - 5.1 1.0-0.9 1.6 - Index sa ( = ) Total 300 China (share 27%) Malaysia (share 11%) 250 Asia ex. CN MY (share 29%) Europe ex. Russia (share 16%) Russia (share 3%) 200 150 50 Tourists Classified by Nationality 0 Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in
-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 3 Index sa, 3mma ( = ) 140 60 Bn baht 200 150 50 0-50 Investment in Machinery and Equipment Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Sales for Investment Sources of Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value. Index sa, 3mma ( =) 105 1,000 m 2 9mma 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 95 85 Investment in Construction Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) % YoY Private Investment Indicators %MoM sa H1 Q2 Q3 P Sep Oct P Oct P Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -8.7-5.5-3.9-5.9-6.0-8.0 0.7 Construction Materials Index -2.0-4.5-6.6 0.0 2.4-7.1-0.8 Real Imports of Capital Goods -1.8 1.9 5.2 4.4 0.6 13.4 1.5 Real Domestic Machinery Sales 4.6-1.3-2.9 0.2 3.1-2.5-0.3 Car Sales for Investment -3.1 7.9 4.6 12.4 24.0 9.9-0.6 PII 0.0-0.6-0.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.3 Capacity Utilization (SA) 60.0 60.3 60.6 62.5 63.4 60.2 -
4 = Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index = = 140 115 130 105 Nielsen s FMCG Index sa, 3mma 95 Fuel Index, sa Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS) 85 Durable and Semi-durable Indices Semi-durable Index sa,3mma Durable Index sa, 3mma Durable Index sa = 130 * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector Private Consumption Indicators %YoY %MoM sa H1 Q2 Q3 P Sep P Oct P Oct P Non-durable index 2.2-0.9-1.0 0.7 2.2 0.4-0.6 Semi-durable index 1.7-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.9-2.6-0.1 Durable index -1.2 8.4 5.7 4.9 7.4 10.6-2.3 Service index 7.3 5.7 6.2 4.7 5.0 8.0-0.1 (less) Net tourist spending 10.1 7.8 12.0 9.3 8.3 21.3 0.6 PCI 3.6 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.9 1.4-0.6 Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index Service Index sa, 3mma Non-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS) = 160 140 60
5 Farm Income (%YoY) H1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct Index = Real Income Farm Income sa Farm Income sa, 3mma Average Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma Nominal farm income P 1.1 15.9 17.2-1.8 1.0-4.0 Agricultural production P -2.3 10.5 19.6 12.8 7.6-1.6 Agricultural price 3.6 4.9-1.9-12.9-6.1-2.4 70 P = Preliminary Data Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = 50) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Consumer Confidence Index Average 5 years = 37.1 Oct 17 Agriculture = 40.3 Non-Agriculture = 38.9 Sources: MOC, NSO, OAE, calculated by BOT
Sources: Comptroller General s Department, Fiscal Policy Office 6 Central Government Current Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 1 160 140 60 Central Government Capital Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 avg. FY-17 FY FY2018 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug avg. FY-17 FY FY2018 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Fiscal Position (Cash basis) Billion Baht FY FY P FY P FY2018 P Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Revenue 2,412 2,349 697 612 263 184 (%YoY) (9.3) (-2.6) (-6.9) (1.4) (-0.4) (21.7) Expenditure 1/ 2,736 2,795 641 593 206 425 (%YoY) (9.0) (2.2) (-1.3) (7.5) (-3.7) (-1.9) Budgetary B/L -324-446 56 19 57-241 Non-Budgetary B/L -58 40 19 49 51 25 Cash B/L (CG) -382-406 76 68 108-216 Net Financing 397 489 68 171-3 Treasury B/L 441 524 285 524 524 305 Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments
7 (%YoY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Share 2011 H1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct P %MoM sa Food & Beverages 19.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 6.5 5.0-1.3-6.0 Automotive 16.9 0.4-3.7-1.2 14.6 15.2 0.6-10.9 - Vehicle 10.2 1.9-4.5-3.1 7.4 8.6-1.6-12.3 - Engine 6.6-2.8-2.1 3.0 32.0 31.6 5.2-8.1 Rubbers & Plastics 10.6 0.6-0.2 2.4 11.0 11.8 20.3 3.2 IC & Semiconductors 8.0 6.1 12.3 10.1 5.6 5.0-0.7-1.7 Textiles & Apparels 5.9-7.0-2.9-2.1-6.0-9.1-7.8-3.5 Chemicals 5.8-0.2-0.6-1.7-0.2 0.6 7.6 1.6 Cement & Construction 5.0 0.3-1.6-2.3-2.9 7.0-4.3-4.9 Electrical Appliances 4.4 14.9-4.8-6.8-15.8-16.1-10.8 0.0 Petroleum 3.3 2.4 3.7 7.5 5.3 6.8 2.9 2.9 HDD 1.2-7.6 10.2 10.4 6.8 9.3 11.4-2.8 Others 19.7 1.3-0.7-4.7-1.5-0.9-7.2-6.5 MPI.0 1.6 0.1-0.1 4.1 4.6-0.1 - MPI sa % from last period.0 - - -0.1 2.5 0.6-4.5-4.5 Capacity Utilization (SA).0 60.0 60.3 60.6 62.5 63.4 60.2 - Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011) P = Preliminary data Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT Index sa ( = ) 115 85 70 MPI Classified by Export Share Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT Index sa ( = ) 95 65 Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60% * The latest month was estimated by the BOT Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production Industrial Electricity Consumption* Quantity of Imported Raw Materials Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
8 Sep = 16.5 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 15.8 Bn USD %YoY Oct = 18.4 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 17.6 Bn USD Share P P P H1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct %MoM sa Consumer 10.9 6.0 4.3 7.8 7.6 6.7 12.8 1.2 Raw material&intermediate 52.5-8.0 18.5 16.1 13.2 7.5 21.9 8.3 o/w Fuel 11.8-22.6 34.1 19.5 23.1-0.4 48.2 35.8 o/w Raw mat&interm ex. Fuel Import Value 40.7-2.6 14.2 15.1 10.4 10.2 13.8 0.1 Capital 26.7-2.6 10.0 13.0 8.6 10.9 3.2-3.2 Others 9.9 3.0 21.9 24.8 46.8 23.3 2.4 10.8 Total (BOP basis).0-5.1 15.0 14.2 13.0 6.5 16.6 8.4 Ex. Gold - -4.6 12.6 12.3 9.5 5.3 18.4 7.9 Ex. Gold&Fuel - -1.1 9.4 11.1 7.5 6.3 13.5 3.5 Index sa, 3mma ( =) 60 Import Value Index Total imports Raw materials ex. fuel* Capital goods Consumer goods Fuel 40 * Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in others in the accompanying table. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Value Quantity Price Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data
9 Unemployment rate (sa) Employed persons (%YoY) %YoY 3 2 1 0-1 Labor Market Indicators % H1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct 1.0 1.2 1.2 (1.1) 1.2 (1.2) 1.2 (1.3) 1.3 (1.3) -0.9-0.1 0.4-1.6-1.6-1.3 Underemployment rate 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT Headline inflation contribution Raw food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core (72.56%) -2 Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT Oct 0.86% Thousand persons sa, 3mma 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 %YoY 3 2 1 0 Employment Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa) Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS) Core inflation contribution Rent (19.62%) Food & Beverage (28.17%) Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%) Thousand persons sa, 3mma 15,000-17 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 Oct 0.58%
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 10 Balance of Payments P Billion USD P H1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct E YTD Trade Balance 36.5 15.2 6.4 10.1 5.4 1.6 27.0 Exports (f.o.b.) 214.3 112.3 56.1 61.6 21.9 20.0 194.0 %YoY 0.1 7.3 7.9 12.5 13.4 13.4 9.5 Imports (f.o.b.) 177.7 97.1 49.7 51.5 16.5 18.4 167.0 %YoY -5.1 15.0 14.2 13.0 6.5 16.6 14.5 Net Services, Income & Transfers 11.7 7.2 1.0 3.6 0.9 1.9 12.7 Current Account 48.2 22.4 7.4 13.7 6.3 3.5 39.7 Capital and Financial Account -21.0-11.1-4.1 1.0-1.0-1.6-11.7 Overall Balance 12.8 10.2 2.0 12.6 4.6 2.1 24.9
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 11 Net Financial Flows Millions of USD P P H1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct E YTD 1. Assets -19,744-18,986-8,071-5,7-4, 1,630-23,263 TDI -13,409-7,9-4,322-2,614-1,183-573 -10,996 - Equity -9,073-2,573-1,126-2,491-588 -952-6,016 Thai Portfolio investment -4,279-6,487-2,738-2,094-153 -324-8,5 - Equity security investment -1,817-3,644-1,888-2,106-7 -355-6,105 - Debt security investment -2,462-2,843-850 12 627 30-2,0 Loans 1,340-532 345-428 -79 258-702 Other Investments -3,396-4,158-1,355-772 -2,705 2,270-2,660 - Trade credits 797-798 963-2,333-763 -516-3,647 2. Liabilities -1,279 7,5 3,998 6,930 3,136-3,222 11,613 FDI 3,063 4,324 1,842 1,645 851 557 6,526 - Equity 2,160 1,9 401 1,130 329-27 3,083 Foreign Portfolio investment 1,481 3,1 1,483 5,439 2,6-858 8,382 - Equity security investment -786 623 218 242 492 297 1,162 - Debt security investment 2,268 3,178 1,265 5,197 2,198-1,155 7,220 Loans 60 1,516 1,345 746 873-2,399-136 Other Investments -5,883-1,737-671 -1-1,278-522 -3,160 - Trade credits -946 26-452 -574-371 -743 Total Financial Flows (1+2) -21,023-11,082-4,072 1,023-984 -1,591-11,650
Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg 30-Dec-15 22--16 12-Feb-16 7-Mar-16 28-Mar-16 22-Apr-16 18-May-16 9-Jun-16 30-Jun-16 26--16 17-Aug-16 7-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 19-Oct-16 10-Nov-16 1-Dec-16 26-Dec-16 18--17 8-Feb-17 2-Mar-17 23-Mar-17 18-Apr-17 11-May-17 1-Jun-17 22-Jun-17 14--17 7-Aug-17 29-Aug-17 19-Sep-17 10-Oct-17 3-Nov-17 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep-17 Oct-17 12 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% (Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD) PHP EUR GBP JPY IDR MYR SGD CNY THB TWD INR KRW Index ( = ) NEER REER USDTHB Exchange Rate Movement end of Oct compared to end of Sep 21 Nov compared to end of Oct THB Appreciation Nov (Average data until 21 Nov) % p.a. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Billion USD 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD) Reserves/Short-term Debt Latest data 21 Nov Oct 3.5