1 Aug = 21.0 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 20.0 Bn USD Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data Sep = 21.9 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 20.6 Bn USD P P Share %YoY P P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep %MoM sa Agriculture 7.0-6.2-9.5-2.8 20.5 19.2 28.4 27.5 9.8-2.6 Fishery 1.0 15.1 10.6 19.2 2.1 10.4 11.5 24.7 2.4-6.2 Manufacturing 87.2-1.2-4.1 1.6 5.9 12.5 9.6 8.7 7.8 1.5 Agro-manufacturing Products Electronics and Optical Appliances Export Value 12.0 1.0 0.4 1.5 7.3 11.9 13.9 19.1 12.3-2.5 16.0-2.3-5.8 0.9 10.8 17.6 10.6 12.1 7.0 0.2 Electrical Appliances 5.8 3.5 1.3 5.9 9.5 4.1 3.1 7.4-2.0-1.8 Automotive 15.5 3.2 3.0 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.6-13.2 6.0 0.9 Machinery & Equipment 8.9-0.3-5.2 4.7 4.2 11.5 13.2 9.8 8.3 1.7 Petroleum Related 10.6-12.5-19.7-5.0 18.8 20.3 19.3 23.5 24.4 8.9 Total (BOP basis).0 0.1-1.9 2.1 6.8 7.9 12.5 15.8 13.4 3.3 Ex. Gold -1.6-4.7 1.6 9.2 9.8 11.2 12.7 8.9 2.4 Ex. Gold+Petroleum 0.0-2.5 2.5 8.1 8.5 10.2 11.4 7.1 1.5 related Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. 70 60 Index sa, 3mma ( =) 105 95 85 Thai Export to Major Destinations Index sa, 3mma ( =) Ex.gold 130 75 * ex. Aircraft and other manufacturing EU US Japan* Asian Export Performance MY China ASEAN5 ME ID ex.oil & Gas KR TH ex.gold TW SG CN
2 H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep P YTD No. of tourists ( 000) 32,530 16,514 8,250 7,766 9,194 8,130 8,777 3,133 2,556 26,101 %YoY 8.9 11.5 12.9 0.0 2.1 8.3 6.4 8.7 5.7 5.4 %QoQsa, %MoMsa - - 1.9-11.2 12.6 5.3 0.7 0.4-1.1 - Index sa ( = ) 300 250 200 150 50 Total China (share 27%) Malaysia (share 11%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 29%) Europe ex. Russia (share 16%) Russia (share 3%) Tourists Classified by Nationality 0 Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in
3 = Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index = = 115 130 105 Nielsen s FMCG Index sa, 3mma 95 Fuel Index, sa Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS) 85 Durable and Semi-durable Indices Semi-durable Index sa,3mma Durable Index sa, 3mma Durable Index sa = 130 * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector %YoY Private Consumption Indicators %MoM sa H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 P Aug Sep P Sep P Non-durable index 2.2 3.2 1.9 0.5-0.8-1.0 0.6-0.3 2.1 0.4 Semi-durable index 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.0 0.0-0.2-0.3 1.5-1.2-1.6 Durable index -1.2-2.4 5.6-4.5 11.1 5.7 4.9 2.1 7.4 P 5.0 P Service index 7.3 7.5 9.1 5.4 5.1 6.2 4.7 6.0 5.0 E 0.8 E (less) Net tourist spending 10.1 12.9 14.9-0.1 4.5 12.0 9.3 11.8 8.3-1.4 PCI 3.6 3.5 4.3 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.8 1.1 Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index Service Index sa, 3mma Non-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS) = 160 140 60
4 Farm Income Index = Real Income Farm Income sa Farm Income sa, 3mma Average Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma 70 P = Preliminary Data Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = 50) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Consumer Confidence Index Average 5 years = 37.1 Sep 17 Non-Agriculture = 39.3 Agriculture = 37.3 Sources: MOC, NSO, OAE, calculated by BOT
5 (%YoY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Share 2011 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep P %MoM sa Food & Beverages 19.3 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.9 6.3 3.7 4.5 0.4 Automotive 16.9 0.4 5.3-4.4-6.0-1.2 14.6 18.9 15.2 0.5 - Vehicle 10.2 1.9 6.6-2.5-5.7-3.1 7.4 11.3 8.6 0.5 - Engine 6.6-2.8 2.7-8.4-6.4 3.0 32.0 38.4 31.6 0.4 Rubbers & Plastics 10.6 0.6 4.5-3.3-2.4 2.4 9.8 11.1 8.2-3.0 IC & Semiconductors 8.0 6.1 2.5 9.6 14.5 10.1 5.6 5.5 5.0 1.2 Textiles & Apparels 5.9-7.0-8.8-5.3-3.6-2.1-6.3-4.7-10.0-1.7 Chemicals 5.8-0.2-0.1-0.4 0.5-1.7-0.1-0.1 0.7 1.6 Cement & Construction 5.0 0.3-1.2 1.9-0.9-2.3-2.9-1.1 7.0 2.0 Electrical Appliances 4.4 14.9 14.6 15.4-2.8-6.8-15.8-14.9-15.9-1.3 Petroleum 3.3 2.4-0.1 4.9-0.2 7.5 5.3 7.4 6.8-2.6 HDD 1.2-7.6-16.0 1.3 10.0 10.4 6.8 5.7 9.3 7.0 Others 19.7 1.3-0.5 3.2 3.3-4.7-1.4-2.9-0.7 0.2 MPI.0 1.6 1.9 1.3 0.3-0.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 - MPI sa % from last period.0 - - - -0.7 0.4 3.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 Capacity Utilization (SA).0 60.0 60.4 59.6 59.8 60.7 62.8 63.1 63.6 - Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011) P = Preliminary data Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT Index sa ( = ) 115 85 70 95 65 Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT Index sa ( = ) Industrial Electricity Consumption* Quantity of Imported Raw Materials Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma) MPI Classified by Export Share Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60% Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production * The latest month was estimated by the BOT
-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 6 Index sa, 3mma ( = ) 140 Bn baht 200 150 50 0-50 60 Investment in Machinery and Equipment Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Sales for Investment Sources of Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA Index sa, 3mma ( =) 105 1,000 m 2 9mma 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 95 85 % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) Investment in Construction Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) Private Investment Indicators %MoM sa H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 P Aug Sep P Sep P -8.7-7.5-10.7-9.3-7.0-3.9-5.6-5.5-5.1-0.5 Construction Materials Index -2.0-1.0-5.0-0.9-2.5-6.6 0.3 0.3 3.4 0.8 Real Imports of Capital Goods -1.8-1.0-2.1-2.8-1.3 5.2 4.4 6.0 0.6 0.7 Real Domestic Machinery Sales 4.6 6.0 3.6 2.9 0.2-2.9-2.6-3.7-2.8 E 0.4 E Car Sales for Investment -3.1 3.4-0.6-14.4 11.1 4.6 12.4 6.4 24.0 6.0 PII -0.1 0.7-0.8-1.1-0.8-0.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.6 Capacity Utilization (SA) 60.0 60.4 59.1 60.2 59.8 60.7 62.8 63.1 63.6 -
7 Aug = 17.6 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 16.9 Bn USD %YoY Share P P P P Sep = 16.5 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 15.8 Bn USD H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep %MoM sa Consumer 10.9 6.0 4.3 7.6 0.8 7.8 7.6 9.0 6.7 0.0 Raw material&intermediate 52.5-8.0-16.1 1.0 21.2 16.1 13.2 18.6 7.5-1.4 o/w Fuel 11.8-22.6-35.0-7.3 52.8 19.5 23.1 58.9-0.4-11.1 o/w Raw mat&interm ex. Fuel Import Value 40.7-2.6-8.7 3.8 13.3 15.1 10.4 9.6 10.2 1.9 Capital 26.7-2.6-5.7 0.4 7.2 13.0 8.6 4.6 10.9 11.8 Others 9.9 3.0-2.0 7.6 19.1 24.8 46.8 32.0 23.3-4.1 Total (BOP basis).0-5.1-11.3 1.3 15.9 14.2 13.0 14.3 6.5-1.1 Ex. Gold -4.6-10.6 1.6 12.9 12.3 9.5 12.5 5.3-0.9 Ex. Gold&Fuel -1.1-5.3 3.2 7.5 11.1 7.5 6.9 6.3 0.9 Index sa, 3mma ( =) 60 Import Value Index Total imports Raw materials ex. fuel* Capital goods Consumer goods Fuel 40 * Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in others in the accompanying table. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Value Quantity Price Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data
Sources: Comptroller General s Department, Fiscal Policy Office 8 Central Government Current Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 1 160 140 60 Central Government Capital Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 avg. FY-16 FY FY Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug avg. FY-16 FY FY Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Fiscal Position (Cash basis) Fiscal Position FY P Billion Baht FY P FY P Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep Revenue 2,412 2,349 550 4 697 612 186 263 (%YoY) (9.3) (-2.6) (-5.9) (3.0) (-6.9) (1.4) (1.5) (-0.4) Expenditure 1/ 2,736 2,795 925 636 641 593 165 206 (%YoY) (9.0) (2.2) (6.0) (-4.0) (-1.3) (7.5) (4.0) (-3.7) Budgetary B/L -324-446 -375-146 56 19 21 57 Non-Budgetary B/L -58 40 4-32 19 49 0 51 Cash B/L (CG) -382-406 -372-178 76 68 22 108 Net Financing 397 489 5 245 68 171 35 Treasury B/L 441 524 75 142 285 524 315 524 Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments
9 Labor Market Indicators Thousand persons sa, 3mma 27,000 Employment Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa) Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Thousand persons sa, 3mma 14,000 25,000 12,000 Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT %YoY 3 2 1 Headline inflation contribution Raw food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core (72.56%) Sep 0.86% 23,000 %YoY 3 2-17 Core inflation contribution Rent (19.62%) Food & Beverage (28.17%) Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%) 10,000 0-1 1 Sep 0.53% -2 Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT 0
10 Balance of Payments Billion USD P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep E YTD Trade Balance 36.5 20.2 9.2 7.1 8.8 6.4 10.1 3.4 5.4 25.4 Exports (f.o.b.) 214.3 104.7 54.8 54.8 56.2 56.1 61.6 21.0 21.9 173.9 %YoY 0.1-1.9 0.3 4.0 6.8 7.9 12.5 15.8 13.4 9.1 Imports (f.o.b.) 177.7 84.4 45.6 47.7 47.4 49.7 51.5 17.6 16.5 148.6 %YoY -5.1-11.3-3.2 6.1 15.9 14.2 13.0 14.3 6.5 14.3 Net Services, Income & Transfers 11.7 5.5 2.5 3.7 6.2 1.0 3.6 1.3 0.9 10.8 Current Account 48.2 25.8 11.7 10.8 15.0 7.4 13.7 4.7 6.3 36.1 Capital and Financial Account -21.0-1.1-7.8-12.1-7.0-4.1 1.0 1.3-1.0-10.1 Overall Balance 12.8 17.7 0.8-5.6 8.2 2.0 12.6 5.7 4.6 22.8 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
11 Net Financial Flows Millions of USD P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep E YTD 1. Assets -19,744-8,678-6,007-5,059-10,916-8,071-5,7-2,073-4, -24,893 TDI -13,409-7,878-3,279-2,252-3,487-4,322-2,614-1,599-1,183-10,423 - Equity -9,073-5,448-2,193-1,433-1,447-1,126-2,491-661 -588-5,063 Thai Portfolio investment -4,279 482-2,784-1,977-3,749-2,738-2,094-774 -153-8,581 - Equity security investment -1,817-82 -1,319-416 -1,756-1,888-2,106-727 -7-5,750 - Debt security investment -2,462 564-1,465-1,562-1,993-850 12-48 627-2,831 Loans 1,340 8 22 410-877 345-428 -137-79 -960 Other Investments -3,396-2,189 34-1,240-2,3-1,355-772 438-2,705-4,930 - Trade credits 797 651 243-97 -1,761 963-2,333-649 -763-3,131 2. Liabilities -1,279 7,535-1,765-7,049 3,6 3,998 6,930 3,353 3,136 14,834 FDI 3,063 4,862-4,103 2,305 2,483 1,842 1,645 495 851 5,970 - Equity 2,160-684 638 2,206 1,579 401 1,130 401 329 3,109 Foreign Portfolio investment 1,481 2,160 5,542-6,220 2,318 1,483 5,439 2,106 2,6 9,240 - Equity security investment -786-332 3,223-3,676 405 218 242-152 492 865 - Debt security investment 2,268 2,492 2,319-2,544 1,913 1,265 5,197 2,257 2,198 8,375 Loans 60 1,965-1,333-572 172 1,345 746 1,373 873 2,263 Other Investments -5,883-1,452-1,871-2,560-1,066-671 -1-621 -1,278-2,638 - Trade credits -946 598-626 -918 55 26-452 56-574 -372 Total Financial Flows (1+2) -21,023-1,143-7,772-12,108-7,010-4,072 1,023 1,2-984 -10,059 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg 30-Dec-15 22--16 12-Feb-16 7-Mar-16 28-Mar-16 22-Apr-16 18-May-16 9-Jun-16 30-Jun-16 26--16 17-Aug-16 7-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 19-Oct-16 10-Nov-16 1-Dec-16 26-Dec-16 18--17 8-Feb-17 2-Mar-17 23-Mar-17 18-Apr-17 11-May-17 1-Jun-17 22-Jun-17 14--17 7-Aug-17 29-Aug-17 19-Sep-17 10-Oct-17 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 12 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% -0.5% -1.5% -2.5% (Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD) INR JPY KRW IDR CNY EUR TWD THB SGD PHP MYR GBP Index ( = ) NEER REER USDTHB Exchange Rate Movement end of Sep compared to end of Aug 24 Oct compared to end of Sep THB Appreciation Oct (Average data until 24 Oct) % p.a. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Times 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD) Reserves/Short-term Debt Latest data 24 Oct Sep E 3.2