Press Information Contact details: Catherine Cheung PRO Marketing Services Co. Ltd. Tel: +852 2851 1482/9466 4743 E: catherine@propublicity.com www.propublicity.com for press release/ charts download HONG KONG PEOPLE ABANDON THEIR UPBEAT OUTLOOK From the world s greatest optimists to the biggest pessimists as they face 2009 s uncertainties, yet most employees remain confident that their own jobs are secure HONG KONG, December 31, 2008 The Hong Kong public who topped the list as the most confident people on earth in terms of their expectations for 2008 are now among the gloomiest concerning 2009, according to a recent worldwide survey by leading marketinformation company TNS and Gallup International, conducted between October & December 2008 with 45,700 respondents in 46 countries and regions. The sentiment of local people has been severely dented by the global financial crisis that erupted during mid-2008. Only 17% of the 1,013 Hong Kong citizens surveyed via online panels during November 2008 think that 2009 will be better than last year. This is fewer than the 27% of global respondents who have similar views. Most local citizens (67%) expect this year will be worse for them than last year, which is almost double the global figure of 35%. At the same time only 5% of Hong Kong people feel the city will become more prosperous in 2009, and 13% say that unemployment will decline. This is in stark contrast to a similar survey conducted by the same two organisations 12 months earlier. At that time, 71% of Hong Kongers were looking forward to better lives in 2008, compared with 38% of people globally. Hong Kong Outlook for 2009 and compared to previous years 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Better year Better economic prosperity Unemployment to decrease Unemployment is the biggest concern Concern that unemployment will increase is having a major effect on the outlook of local people. An overwhelming majority (84%) of respondents expect the number of unemployed to increase either a lot or slightly, whereas just 13% think unemployment will decrease.
TNS Gallup International End of Year Poll Page 2 of 5 However, those who work either full or part time (67% of the total) are relatively optimistic about their own job security. Some 65% of this group believe their jobs will be secure in 2009, and just 35% of them say there is a chance they might join the ranks of the unemployed in the next 12 months. This reflects a global trend to some degree: only 27% of working respondents worldwide are concerned they will lose their own jobs, even though 63% think unemployment is set to rise. If they were to lose their present job, only 20% of the Hong Kong respondents believe they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly; while 72% fear it would take them longer than usual. This compares with worldwide figures of 31% and 54%, respectively. All in all, the survey reveals that the expectations of Hong Kong residents have fallen to their lowest level since the year 2000. Their pessimism about the coming 12 months is equalled only by the people of Iceland, a country that is generally accepted to have been hit hardest by the crisis so far. Top Pessimists 2009 will be worse than 2008 Hong Kong 67% Iceland 67% Singapore 63% Ireland 61% Greece 60% Croatia 56% Serbia 53% United Kingdom 52% Netherland 52% Ukraine 52% Most Mainland city residents remain confident As we enter 2009, the world s leading optimists are the people of UN-administered Kosovo, 60% of whom are looking forward to a brighter New Year. Interestingly, even though the global economic slowdown is already affecting some sectors, the residents of major Mainland Chinese cities are in second place of the world s top optimists; with more than half (53%) anticipate that 2009 will be sunnier for them. Top Optimists 2009 will be better than 2008 Kosovo 60% China (Main cities) 53% Australia 49% Lebanon 48% Colombia 48% New Zealand 44% Russia 42% India 42% Bahrain 41% Macedonia 40%
TNS Gallup International End of Year Poll Page 3 of 5 Commenting on the survey results, Mr. Thomas Isaac, Director Research Services of TNS Hong Kong and Singapore, says they reflect the bearish views being expressed by many of the city s most respected business organizations. The November 2008 issue of the Hang Seng Bank's authoritative Hong Kong Economic Monitor forecasts that the city s exports will increase by a modest 3.5% during 2009, and that GDP will grow by only around 2%. Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to climb further to 5% by the middle of the year," he notes. Media reports of these types of forecasts, the financial difficulties of several major local retailers, falling property prices, and corporate layoffs have made local people realise that the global economic turmoil is having an impact on Hong Kong. Just as this crisis has had a swift and severe effect on the global business community, it has also dashed the optimism of local citizens equally quickly. Yet, if employees feel confident that their jobs remain secure, that may mean the general mood will improve during the coming months, he adds. Notes to Editors Hong Kong outlook for 2000-2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1: So far as you are 1 Better 60 53 30 32 76 70 56 74 71 17 concerned, do you think that 2 Same 12 26 17 29 16 18 34 21 24 16 the next 12 months will be 3 Worse 14 19 50 37 6 9 10 5 5 67 better, or worse than the last? 4 Don't know/no response 14 3 3 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 100 101 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Q2: Compared with this year, in your opinion, will the year ahead be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same? 1 Economic prosperity 52 21 9 9 35 27 31 54 58 5 2 Remain the same 31 63 43 54 59 64 60 41 34 16 3 Economic difficulty 10 14 47 36 5 7 9 5 8 79 4 Don t know/no response 7 2 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 101 100 100 100 100 100 100 Q3: In the next 12 months do you expect the number of unemployed in Hong Kong to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall 1&2 Increase 32 33 66 44 23 25 23 20 19 84 3 Remain the same 27 28 12 25 23 27 25 21 25 3 4&5 Decrease 35 37 21 30 54 47 52 59 56 13 6 Don t know/no response 6 2 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 slightly or fall a lot? 100 100 100 100 100 101 100 100 100 100
TNS Gallup International End of Year Poll Page 4 of 5 Q. In the next 12 months do you expect the number of unemployed in your country to...? Country/Region Increase a lot + increase slightly Remain the same Fall slightly + fall a lot Don't know / no response India 57% 24% 16% 3% Pakistan 57% 13% 14% 16% Japan 65% 11% 9% 15% Indonesia 68% 20% 11% 1% Australia 70% 8% 20% 2% Korea 72% 18% 5% 5% New Zealand 74% 10% 15% 1% Philippines 76% 13% 11% China 78% 8% 12% 2% Singapore 78% 4% 18% Hong Kong 84% 3% 13% Global 66% 15% 14% 5% Q. Do you think your present job is safe, or there's a chance you may become unemployed? Country/Region Present Job Safe Chance of unemployment Don't know/no Response Japan 30% 22% 48% Korea 53% 29% 18% Philippines 55% 45% Pakistan 62% 19% 19% India 62% 31% 7% Hong Kong 65% 35% China 68% 29% 3% Singapore 70% 30% Indonesia 71% 19% 10% New Zealand 79% 18% 3% Australia 81% 17% 2% Global 63% 27% 10% About TNS Gallup International End of Year Poll The Gallup International (GIA) End of Year Poll measures world opinion on economic prosperity for 2009. Conducted in 47 countries, fieldwork was carried out between October and December 2008. A representative sample of 11,783 adults aged 15 to 64 were interviewed in 11 Asia Pacific countries: Australia (n=648), Hong Kong (n=1013), India (n=1,063), Indonesia (n=500), Japan (n=1,200), Korea (n=1,515), New Zealand (n=1,050), Pakistan (n=2,027), Philippines (n=1,000), Singapore (n=1,015), China (n=752). The interviews were conducted face to face, by telephone using CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) and online using TNS 6 th dimension access panels. Publication of the results in Hong Kong is free provided that acknowledgement is made to TNS and Gallup International.
TNS Gallup International End of Year Poll Page 5 of 5 Gallup International Gallup International Association is registered in Zurich, Switzerland as a not-for-profit verein (association). George H Gallup and his European colleagues established it in 1947. Gallup International has member agencies in more than 65 countries across the world, conducting opinion and market research in over 100 countries. About TNS TNS is a global market information and insight group. Its strategic goal is to be recognised as the global leader in delivering value-added information and insights that help its clients make more effective business decisions. TNS delivers innovative thinking and excellent service across a network of 80 countries. Working in partnership with clients, TNS provides high-quality information, analysis and insight that improve understanding of consumer behaviour. TNS is the world s leading provider of customised services, combining sector knowledge with expertise in the areas of Product Development & Innovation, Brand & Communications, Stakeholder Management and Retail & Shopper. TNS is a major supplier of consumer panel, media intelligence and audience measurement services. TNS is the sixth sense of business. www.tns-global.com.hk About the Kantar Group A wholly-owned subsidiary of WPP Group plc, the Kantar Group is one of the world's largest research, insight and consultancy networks. By uniting the diverse talents of more than 20 specialist companies including TNS, which it recently acquired it aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and actionable insights for the global business community. The Group s 26,500 employees work across 80 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at each and every point of the consumer cycle. Its services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies. For further information, please visit www.kantargrouptns.com