INDUSTRY OIL & GAS CMP (as on 30 May 2017) Rs 738 Target Price Rs 720 Nifty 9,625 Sensex 31,159 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BPCL IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,446 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,067/16,510 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,703 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 770/450 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 12.2 17.4 51.3 Relative (%) 3.8 0.5 34.7 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 54.93 FIs & Local MFs 6.34 FPIs 22.13 Public & Others 16.60 Source : BSE Satish Mishra satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7334 Deepak Kolhe deepak.kolhe@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7316 Kochi is the next trigger BPCL reported an EBITDA of Rs 22.1bn in 4QFY17, led by a decline in GRM, lower sales volumes and higher employee cost. PAT came in at Rs 18.4bn. Results are not comparable, owing to inventory/forex impacts. The last three years have been excellent for OMCs. The fall in crude prices led to a complete change in the fortunes of the sector, driven by (1) Strong global GRMs (robust demand, lower product prices, delay in new refineries), (2) Petchem margins are above their 5-year avg, (3) Higher profits in marketing, owing to strong volumes/margins, (4) Healing of the B/S (low oil subsidy, interest cost fell 50-60% in the last 3 years) and (5) Inventory gains. These factors have led OMCs to report the highest-ever PAT in FY17. Fundamentals remain positive for BPCL, owing to its superior refining assets, rising capacity of Kochi refinery, and a possible upside in marketing margins. However, the stock has moved up by ~50% over the last 12 months, and we see no immediate trigger. There will also be further deferment in value unlocking of upstream assets in the prevailing RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 30 MAY 2017 Bharat Petroleum Corporation NEUTRAL scenario of weak gas prices. Our SOTP target is Rs 720 (5.5x FY19E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.5x EV/e for marketing, Rs 62/sh from upstream and Rs 82/sh from other investments). Maintain NEUTRAL. Highlights of the quarter Reported GRM was USD 6.0/bbl (-3/-11% YoY/QoQ). Crude throughput was 6.0 mmt (-5/+2% YoY/QoQ). Product inventory gains were Rs 4.0bn (vs loss of Rs 9.9bn in 4QFY16, and gain of Rs 6.7bn in 3QFY17). Forex loss was Rs 3.3bn vs. losses of Rs 2.0bn YoY and Rs 1.5bn QoQ. Clarity awaited on E&P assets: (1) Mozambique: FID is expected in 1QCY18 and (2) Brazil: Appraisal of assets is underway. Near-term outlook: GST has caused uncertainty in the oil sector. This overhang will continue, unless the government addresses these concerns. Apart from GST, we see no major concern for IOC till the crude price remains below USD 65/bbl. Inventory impact and provisions may shock quarterly results. Financial Summary (Standalone) (Rs bn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Net Sales 570.4 435.5 31.0 535.4 6.5 1,884.0 2,022.1 2,127.0 2,224.8 EBITDA 22.1 33.7 (34.4) 33.2 (33.3) 110.2 108.3 128.0 147.6 PAT 18.4 21.2 (13.0) 22.7 (18.9) 70.4 80.4 76.6 88.3 Diluted EPS (Rs) 14.0 16.1 (13.0) 17.3 (18.9) 53.7 61.3 58.5 67.3 P/E (x) 13.7 12.0 12.6 11.0 EV / EBITDA (x) 9.6 10.6 8.8 7.7 RoE (%) 28.3 28.2 24.3 24.6 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Higher employee cost is owing to higher provisioning for pay revision Quarterly results are not comparable, owing to inventory and forex impact Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Rs bn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%) Net Sales 570.36 435.55 31.0 535.43 6.5 Material Expenses 164.39 115.83 41.9 174.41 (5.7) Trading 340.37 243.97 39.5 289.53 17.6 Employee Expenses 14.37 8.20 75.3 6.82 110.7 Other Operating Expenses 29.11 33.85 (14.0) 31.50 (7.6) EBITDA 22.12 33.70 (34.4) 33.16 (33.3) Depreciation 5.24 4.30 21.9 4.84 8.3 EBIT 16.88 29.40 (42.6) 28.33 (40.4) Other Income (Including EO Items) 6.62 4.43 49.4 5.51 20.2 Interest Cost 1.48 2.41 (38.7) 1.35 9.4 PBT 22.03 31.43 (29.9) 32.49 (32.2) Tax 3.62 10.27 (64.8) 9.77 (63.0) RPAT 18.42 21.16 (13.0) 22.72 (18.9) EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - - - APAT 18.42 21.16 (13.0) 22.72 (18.9) EPS 14.0 16.1 (13.0) 17.3 (18.9) Margin Analysis 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (bps) 3QFY17 QoQ (bps) Raw Material as % of Net Sales 28.8 26.6 223 32.6 (375) Trading as % of Net Sales 59.7 56.0 366 54.1 560 Employee Expenses as % of Net Sales 2.5 1.9 64 1.3 125 Other Operating Expenses as % of Net Sales 5.1 7.8 (267) 5.9 (78) EBITDA Margin (%) 3.9 7.7 (386) 6.2 (232) Net Profit Margin (%) 3.2 4.9 (163) 4.2 (101) Tax Rate (%) 16.4 32.7 (1,627) 30.1 (1,366) Key Quarterly Data Physical Performance 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%) Total Refinery Throughput (mnt) 6.0 6.2 (3.2) 6.8 (11.2) Average Refinery GRM (US$/bbl) 6.0 6.3 (4.6) 5.9 1.9 Domestic Sales (mnt) 9.3 9.8 (5.3) 9.8 (5.1) Export Sales (mnt) 0.8 0.5 50.0 0.8 8.0 Net Under/(Over) Recovery (Rs bn) - (0.5) (100.0) - - Exchange Gain/(Loss) (Rs bn) 3.3 (2.0) (1.5) Inventory Gain/(Loss) (Rs bn) 4.0 (9.9) 6.7 (39.5) Debt (Rs bn) 232 160 45.0 163 42.3 Page 2
Kochi capacity will be expanded to 15.5 mtpa in FY18 from 9.5 currently Benefits of GRM expansion in Kochi will be visible in FY19 We expect diesel margins to increase 5% annually in FY17/18E Lower gross UR will lead to no net UR and lower debt Assumptions FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E REFINING BUSINESS Throughput (mnt) 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.4 24.1 25.4 28.3 30.7 GRM (US$/bbl) 3.2 5.0 4.3 3.6 6.6 5.3 5.5 6.4 MARKETING BUSINESS Total Sales (mnt) 31.1 33.3 34.0 34.4 36.5 37.7 39.3 41.1 YoY Gr (%) 6.4 6.9 2.1 1.3 6.1 3.1 4.4 4.6 Diesel Volume (mn T) 16.3 18.0 18.3 18.4 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.8 Diesel Volume Gr (%) 13.2 10.3 11.3 0.3 5.4 2.0 2.5 2.5 Petrol Volume Gr (%) 6.1 7.0 8.4 11.1 12.4 6.7 9.0 9.0 Diesel Margin (Rs/l) 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.54 1.62 1.70 1.78 MACRO INR-US$ 47.9 54.5 60.5 61.2 65.5 66.5 66.0 66.0 Crude Price (US$/bbl) 114.5 110.0 107.8 90.5 47.6 50.0 55.0 55.0 Total Sector UR (Rs bn) 1,385 1,610 1,399 723 276 237 295 283 BPCL Gross UR (Rs bn) 326 390 345 161 58 50 62 60 BPCL Net UR (Rs bn) 0.1 2.5 5.1 4.9 - - - - Change in FY18 estimates factoring the commissioning of the delayed coker unit at Kochi in 2HFY18 Change In Estimates (Rs bn) FY18 Old FY18 New % Ch Net Sales 2,138.04 2,127.04 (0.5) EBIDTA 131.37 128.03 (2.5) APAT 78.95 76.65 (2.9) AEPS (Rs/sh) 60.2 58.5 (2.9) Source: HDFC sec Inst Research (Rs bn) FY19 New FY19 New % Ch Net Sales 2,223.85 2,224.80 0.0 EBIDTA 147.09 147.59 0.3 APAT 88.02 88.28 0.3 AEPS (Rs/sh) 67.1 67.3 0.3 Page 3
Consortium of BPCL, IOC and Oil India has purchased stake in Russian fields of Vankor (24% stake) and Taas Yuryakh (30% stake). Total consideration was USD 3.1bn. We are not yet factoring this transaction in our valuation and are awaiting further details Peer Valuations Mcap (Rs bn) CMP (Rs/sh) Valuation (Based on FY19E) Business EBITDA (Rs bn) Multiple Value (Rs bn) Value (Rs/sh)* Valuation basis Standalone Refining 60.39 5.5 332 253 EV/EBIDTA on FY19E Marketing 80.92 6.5 526 401 EV/EBIDTA on FY19E Pipelines 6.28 9.0 57 43 EV/EBIDTA on FY19E Standalone net Debt (160) (122) As on Mar-18E Standalone Equity Value 755 576 E & P Mozambique 0.80 128 98 20% discount to ONGC deal (10% @ $ 2.5bn) Brazil 13 10 Oil reserve of 200 mmboe @$5.0/bbl E&P EV 107 E&P Debt (59) (45) E&P Equity Value 62 Investments Traded investments 0.8 80 49 20% discount to CMP Numaligarh Refinery (NRL) 1.5 50 24 1.5x NRL's net-worth as of Mar-16P, BPCL's stake 61.65% Other non traded investments 1.0 13 10 1x BV Investments Equity Value 82 Value per share 720, * Valuation is based on 1.312 bn shares (net of treasury shares) Reco. TP (Rs/sh ) EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E Reliance Industries 4,419 1,359 NEU 1,375 96.7 111.5 126.3 14.1 12.2 10.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 11.6 11.9 12.2 ONGC 2,293 179 BUY 228 14.2 15.3 16.8 12.6 11.7 10.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 Indian Oil Corp 1,988 420 BUY 470 40.3 40.4 43.1 10.4 10.4 9.7 2.0 1.8 1.6 20.3 18.2 17.5 BPCL 1,067 738 NEU 720 61.3 58.5 67.3 12.0 12.6 11.0 3.3 2.9 2.5 28.2 24.3 24.6 Gail India 686 405 BUY 440 22.5 28.9 30.0 18.0 14.0 13.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 10.4 12.3 11.9 HPCL 563 554 NEU 580 54.6 51.8 50.0 10.1 10.7 11.1 2.8 2.5 2.3 28.7 24.6 21.5 Petronet LNG 328 438 BUY 485 22.7 25.9 30.2 19.2 16.9 14.5 4.1 3.4 2.9 23.2 22.1 21.9 OIL India 252 315 NEU 370 26.0 25.8 25.8 12.1 12.2 12.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 9.2 8.8 8.5 Indraprastha Gas 148 1,060 BUY 1,230 40.8 45.3 50.6 26.0 23.4 20.9 5.1 4.4 3.8 21.0 20.0 19.3 Page 4
Standalone Income Statement (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Net Revenues 2,380.87 1,884.05 2,022.11 2,127.04 2,224.80 Growth % (8.5) (20.9) 7.3 5.2 4.6 Raw Material 989.38 618.41 621.33 848.89 921.88 Trading 1,170.52 1,008.29 1,142.20 988.98 983.78 Employee Cost 20.86 27.58 34.29 37.04 40.00 Other Expenses 116.97 119.52 115.99 124.11 131.55 EBITDA 83.15 110.25 108.29 128.03 147.59 EBITDA growth % 2.6 32.6 (1.8) 18.2 15.3 EBITDA Margin % 3.5 5.9 5.4 6.0 6.6 Depreciation 25.16 18.45 18.91 24.92 27.65 EBIT 57.99 91.80 89.38 103.11 119.94 Other Income (Including EO Items) 22.00 17.76 26.01 15.64 15.94 Interest Cost 5.83 5.65 4.96 7.35 7.58 PBT 74.16 103.91 110.43 111.40 128.31 Taxes 23.31 33.35 30.03 34.75 40.02 RPAT 50.85 70.56 80.39 76.65 88.28 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 3.48 0.13 - - - APAT 47.36 70.43 80.39 76.65 88.28 Growth % 16.7 48.7 14.1 (4.7) 15.2 EPS 36.1 53.7 61.3 58.5 67.3 Standalone Balance Sheet (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 7.23 6.56 13.11 13.11 13.11 Reserves 217.44 266.67 283.57 321.20 369.04 Total Shareholders Funds 224.67 273.23 296.68 334.31 382.15 Long-term Debt 117.37 135.67 137.76 137.76 150.76 Short-term Debt 13.61 22.90 94.93 94.93 94.93 Total Debt 130.98 158.57 232.70 232.70 245.70 Net Deferred Taxes 17.08 26.22 35.02 35.02 35.02 LT Provisions & Others 11.79 12.88 14.98 14.98 14.98 Total Liabilities 384.52 470.90 579.38 617.01 677.85 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 203.15 232.07 314.37 352.87 390.22 CWIP 81.74 128.78 118.36 133.36 148.36 Investments 73.02 76.32 92.42 92.42 92.42 LT Loans and Advances 35.69 17.64 35.70 35.70 35.70 Other Non-current Assets 0.83 16.73 16.47 16.47 16.47 Total Non-current Assets 394.43 471.55 577.32 630.81 683.16 Inventories 144.58 137.93 197.98 192.31 201.15 Debtors 25.61 21.89 47.58 46.62 48.76 Cash and Cash Equivalent 64.49 72.47 54.25 72.70 78.48 Loans And Advances 7.86 0.66 0.71 0.71 0.71 Other Current Assets 60.47 49.08 42.06 17.33 14.42 Total Current Assets 303.01 282.03 342.58 329.66 343.51 Creditors 124.67 84.31 113.60 116.55 121.91 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 188.26 198.37 226.92 226.92 226.92 Total Current Liabilities 312.93 282.67 340.51 343.47 348.82 Net Current assets (9.91) (0.65) 2.07 (13.80) (5.31) Total Assets 384.52 470.90 579.38 617.01 677.85 Page 5
Standalone Cash Flow (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Reported PBT 74.16 103.91 110.43 111.40 128.31 Non-operating & EO Items (17.07) (8.07) (26.01) (15.64) (15.94) Interest Expenses 5.83 5.65 4.96 7.35 7.58 Depreciation 25.16 18.54 18.91 24.92 27.65 Working Capital Change 117.05 7.20 (20.93) 34.32 (2.72) Tax Paid (23.30) (24.90) (30.03) (34.75) (40.02) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 181.83 102.34 57.33 127.60 104.85 Capex (81.33) (90.71) (88.82) (80.00) (80.00) Free Cash Flow (FCF) 100.50 11.63 (31.49) 47.60 24.85 Investments (0.64) (3.30) (16.09) - - Non-operating Income 17.03 17.57 26.01 15.64 15.94 Others (14.15) (2.12) (0.00) - - INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (79.09) (78.56) (78.91) (64.36) (64.06) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (70.30) 20.53 74.12-13.00 Interest Expenses (5.83) (5.65) (4.96) (7.35) (7.58) FCFE 24.37 26.51 37.67 40.25 30.27 Share Capital Issuance - (0.67) 6.56 - - Dividend (14.25) (32.78) (52.71) (39.02) (40.44) Others (0.83) (1.54) (6.56) (0.00) - FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (91.21) (20.12) 16.45 (46.37) (35.02) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 11.53 3.66 (5.13) 16.87 5.78 EO Items, Others 4.84 3.50 0.90 - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 64.49 72.47 54.25 72.70 78.48 Standalone Key Ratios FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E PROFITABILITY % EBITDA Margin 3.5 5.9 5.4 6.0 6.6 EBIT Margin 2.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 5.4 APAT Margin 2.0 3.7 4.0 3.6 4.0 RoE 22.6 28.3 28.2 24.3 24.6 Core RoCE 17.3 37.9 28.6 24.1 26.0 RoCE 12.9 18.1 16.6 14.1 14.9 EFFICIENCY Tax rate % 31.4 32.1 27.2 31.2 31.2 Asset Turnover (x) 6.0 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.6 Inventory (days) 22 27 36 33.0 33.0 Debtor (days) 4 4 9 8.0 8.0 Other Current Assets (days) 6 7 10 9.3 8.9 Payables (days) 19 16 21 20.0 20.0 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 29 38 41 38.9 37.2 Cash conversion cycle (days) (16) (17) (7) (8.6) (7.3) Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 Net D/E 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 Interest Coverage 13.7 19.4 23.3 16.2 17.9 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 36.1 53.7 61.3 58.5 67.3 CEPS 55.3 67.8 75.7 77.5 88.4 DPS 12.4 17.1 33.5 24.8 25.7 BV 171.3 208.4 226.3 255.0 291.4 VALUATION P/E (x) 20.4 13.7 12.0 12.6 11.0 P/Cash EPS (x) 13.3 10.9 9.7 9.5 8.3 P/BV (x) 4.3 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 9.6 10.6 8.8 7.7 EV/Revenue (x) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 OCF/EV (%) 17.6 9.7 5.0 11.3 9.2 FCFF /EV (%) 9.7 1.1 (2.7) 4.2 2.2 FCFE/M CAP (%) 2.5 2.7 3.9 4.2 3.1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 2.3 4.5 3.4 3.5 Page 6
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY BPCL 800 700 600 500 400 TP Date CMP Reco Target 30-May-16 506 BUY 570 22-Jul-16 576 BUY 650 2-Sep-16 587 BUY 650 7-Oct-16 664 NEU 645 15-Nov-16 644 NEU 680 10-Feb-17 727 NEU 730 30-May-17 738 NEU 720 300 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 7
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