QUANTUM FUNDS ($500 INVESTMENT) Medium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY The fund pursues the objective of long-term total returns combined with capital preservation. The focus of the strategy is to target key long term trends with a broadly diversified portfolio allocating assets primarily between funds focused on global/ emerging markets equities, commodities and resources. The asset allocation includes funds that should benefit on the upside if there is a sustained period of stability in the global economy. This allocation and number of funds may change depending on prevailing market conditions. The asset diversification of the portfolio should provide a medium risk profile with average price fluctuations in order to pursue higher long term returns. COMPOSITION OF PORTFOLIO Fund 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth 1 yr Janus US Twenty +3.47% +3.90% +9.08% +14.75% Pictet water +0.5% +2.4% +7.1% +18.0% Henderson Cautious Managed +1.4% +1.0% +0.9% +6.0% Henderson Gartmore Global Focus USD +2.3% +2.6% +6.2% +10.0% Henderson Horizon Global Technology +3.4% +1.6% +6.5% +13.9% Threadneedle Absolute Return Bond -0.9% +2.0% +1.2% +1.8%
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE NOVEMBER P/L % MARKET REVIEW NOVEMBER 2014 US stocks inch higher on encouraging economic data November proved to be a better month for equity markets. However, investors will be questioning whether this momentum can be carried into the yea rend given increasing concerns around the sustainability of the global economic recovery and the outlook for global inflation. Inflation expectations are falling along with the oil price and markets are pricing in further delays to monetary policy tightening. In the case of the eurozone, they are pricing in action sooner rather than later. The MSCI World Index gained 2.9% over the month, while the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index declined by 0.4%. Commodities have been one of the weakestperforming asset classes this year and the Bloomberg-Dow Jones Commodity Index was down just over 10% (all total returns in local currency). The decision by OPEC countries not to cut production in the face of increased global supply led to a sharp decline in oil price over the final days of November. WTI oil is down 39% since its June high. OPEC producers may be attempting to squeeze U.S. shale oil producers by maintaining higher output levels, but with little indication of U.S. production being reduced, oil prices are likely to remain low for a while. For many economies, the lower oil price is a bonus as it should lead to increase levels of consumer spending and economic growth. Energy company equities have been hit by the decline in oil, but there may be wider ramifications if this causes stress in the high-yield debt market. Some estimates suggest that energy companies now account for 15-20% of all issuance in the U.S. high-yield debt markets a sizeable increase in the last few years. The danger is that any stress or collapse in these high yield debt markets could easily spread and cause corrections in other markets. Expectations of further easing by the ECB jumped in November after a very dovish speech by President Mario Draghi highlighting the need for urgency in raising inflation and inflation expectations. He also noted that any failure of the current policy could lead to altering the size, pace and composition of asset purchases. European markets rallied on these comments overlooking some weak economic data.
Japan s TOPIX made up lost ground in November after the announcement to extend the programme of qualitative and quantitative easing programme at the end of October. After November s surge the index is up 10.4%. The market s performance may seem surprising as Japan entered into a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) after the economy contracted by 1.6% on an annualised basis in the third quarter. The economy has not recovered from April consumption tax hike and core inflation remains below 1% when the effects of the take hike are taken into account. The falling oil price isn t helping Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and the yield on the two year government bond moved into negative territory for the first time. Abe deferred the second tax increase due in October 2015 by 18 months. He also took the surprise move of dissolving the Japanese Diet. Abe s party already had a ruling majority in the Diet but is hoping to consolidate his power and gain public confirmation that Abenomics is the right policy for the country. The People s Bank of China (PBoC) surprised with a rate cut after a string of weaker economic data, particularly in manufacturing. The PBoC has been undertaking targeted easing measures for some months, but this was the first official rate cut in two years and signals the authorities intention to protect some level of economic growth as the country undertakes structural reforms. PORTFOLIO CHANGES None
FUND FEATURES AND PORTFOLIO OUTLOOK Janus US Twenty The fund seeks to achieve its objective by investing primarily in a core portfolio of 20-30 common stocks of US Issuers. Strong economic data helped propel US stocks higher over the month. News was dominated by the release of the latest monthly employment report in the US. Non-farm payrolls rose by 321,000 in November, which represents the strongest monthly jobs growth for three years and saw the S & P make solid gains over the month. Hold Risk Rating 7 Carmignac Patrimoine The funds aim is to focus on capital protection, and permanently invest at least 50% of its assets in fixed income and money market instruments. Its flexible allocation aims to minimise the risk of capital fluctuation by with opportunities from rising markets when they occur. The fund underperformed its benchmark but the equity markets did add some resilience to performance. Emerging markets also managed to bolster performance whilst fixed income struggled. Hold Risk Rating 7 Pictet Water The fund seeks capital growth by investing at least two-thirds of its total assets in the shares of companies operating in the water and air sector worldwide, favouring companies operating in water supply, processing services, water technology and environmental services. Derivative techniques and instruments for efficient management may be used. The fund underperformed the MSCI World in November, with the water technology and environmental services segments the main drags on performance. There was a clear divergence among sectors in the markets as the drop in the oil price triggered selling in certain sectors. The water fund still retains some of the strongest long term investment themes available. Hold. Risk Rating 6 Henderson Cautious Managed The fund aims to provide income and long-term capital growth by investing in a combination of company shares and a range of bonds in any country. The fund will invest no more than 60% of its value in company shares. Within equity markets the strength of the US dollar assisted returns however the fixed income was a drag on performance. Hold Risk Rating 4 Henderson Gartmore Global Focus USD The Fund aims to achieve a long-term return, in excess of the long-term return that is typically achieved from global equity markets, by investing in a portfolio of company shares in any country. Global equity markets continued on their upward trend from mid-october, finishing November up 2.1%, as measured by the MSCI World index in US dollars, as the global rebound in risk appetite since mid-october proved supportive. Hold Risk Rating 7 Henderson Horizon Global Technology
Seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in a globally diversified portfolio of technology-related companies. Technology stocks generally experienced gains although some of the larger stocks experienced a period of volatility over the period and this resulted in a mixed performance over the month. Hold. Risk Rating 6 Threadneedle Absolute Return Fund The Fund invests at least two-thirds of its assets in bonds (which are similar to a loan and pay a fixed or variable interest rate) issued by companies and governments worldwide, currencies, and, when appropriate, cash. Government bond markets have been volatile. Yields have been dropping as economic data disappoints. We continue to hold bonds as a necessary diversification in the portfolio. The fund has a strong track record but the performance trend could be challenging in the short term. Hold Risk Rating 3 FUND RISK RATING GUIDE Lower Risk Higher Risk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Potentially lower returns Potentially higher returns OUTLOOK Looking at recent data shows the U.S. economy is not rocketing ahead, but is making steady progress. The mix of stronger and weaker data suggests that the U.S. economy will continue to enjoy a supportive policy environment from the Federal Reserve, even while it is boosted by a rising Dollar and a falling oil price. The timing of the Fed s first rate increase is a subject of intense speculation, but for our part we re persuaded by the analysts who see it later than most -- perhaps in the first quarter of 2016. Economic data continues to be good, but not great. The main issue affecting the financial markets right now is collapsing oil prices. An accelerating slide in oil prices has triggered broader turmoil across international financial markets that could result in a sell off of equities and corporate bonds. This is something we will be watching closely as we reach the end of 2014. The International Energy Agency cut its demand growth forecasts for 2015 recently, saying the drop in prices had so far failed to stimulate buying. Its comments sent crude prices to fresh five-and-a-half-year lows. WTI s slide below the $60-abarrel barrier has left investors increasingly worried that prices could decline much further before they stabilise, with ramifications for consumers, industry and central banks. While lower oil prices are seen being a boon for consumer spending, a broader concern is that the sharp decline from above $100 a barrel in June, may not just reflect excess supply, but rather signal less demand, suggesting the global
economy is decelerating. A demand slowdown in China combined with a weak European economy could send oil spiralling even lower. The problem is if china is slowing, it affects the rest of the world. With sluggish growth in Europe, everyone will look towards the US economy to keep its growth trajectory on course. So for now, investors are looking to see which will have the stronger impact, a slowing Chinese economy or good news coming out of the US, which should benefit from the lower energy prices. How these two opposing forces playout is impossible to say but we remain cautious and expect volatility to continue in the short term.