The Rockville Summit Road Map for the Future The City of Rockville, Maryland Current Economic Conditions And Future Directions Stephen S. Fuller, PhD The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University October 18, 2011
Research Objectives Map Rockville s Current and Future Economy Examine Recent Demographic Trends Analyze the City s Economic Base Identify Future Economic Directions Outline Challenges To City s Economic Future
The Tale of Two Cities The Residentially Based Economy The Business Based Economy
Residential Trends: 1990-2010 Characteristics 1990 2010 % Change Population 44,835 61,209 36.5 Households 15,660 23,686 51.3 Median Age 34.6 38.7 Average HH Size 2.86 2.58 Median HH Income $52,073 $93,859 80.2
Population Diversity and Education Characteristics 1990 2010 % Change Race/Ethnicity White 35,491 36,973 4.2 African American 3,699 5,858 58.4 Asian 4,394 12,582 186.3 Hispanic or Latino 3,863 8,781 127.3 Educational Attainment Bachelor s degree 32.8% Bachelor s degree + 58.2%
Income Growth and Market Capacity Characteristics Number HH Income HHs Moving In Since 2000 14,283 $99,551 HHs From Before 2000 9,403 $85,213 Income Differential $14,338 Gross City HH Income 2000 $1.174 billion Gross City HH Income 2010 $2.223 billion up 89.4% HH income grew twice as fast as population (36.5%)
Resident Workforce: 2010 Characteristics Number Percent Total Workers 32,820 Major Occupations Professional and Bus. Services 7,646 23.3 Education and Health Services 6,643 20.2 Government 3,761 11.5 Total* 18,050 55.0 Place of Work Rockville 22.8 Percent of jobs in city 10.8 Montgomery County 42.8 DC or Virginia 27.8 Other Maryland 6.6 *Retail, Financial Services, Hospitality, Other Services = 9,683 or 29.5%
Rockville As A Business Center, 2010 Core Sectors Define City s Economic Base Sector Number of Jobs Percent Professional and Bus. Services* 18,463 27.3 Financial Services* 6,390 9.4 Government 7,077 10.5 Subtotal 24,853 36.7 Education and Health Services 13,044 19.3 Retail Trade 4,478 6.6 Leisure and Hospitality 3,824 5.6 Subtotal 46,199 68.2 Construction 4,831 7.1 Manufacturing 2,162 3.2 *most specialized All Jobs in Rockville 67,693
Rockville s Employment Base Salary Structure, 2009 Income Range Jobs in Rockville Percent Less than $50,000 35,594 52.4 $50,000 to $74,999 12,918 19.0 $75,000 or more 19,374 28.6 Total 67,886 100.0 Jobs Held By City Residents Less than $50,000 15,612 48.5 $50,000 to $74,999 6,127 19.0 $75,000 or more 10,447 32.5 Total 32,186 100.0
Economic Forecast, 2010-2020 Metric 2020 Increase Percent Gross Regional Product $577.5 b $152.5 b 35.9 Metro Area Job Growth 4.292 m 503.1k 13.3 Replacement Job Openings 901.4k 23.8 MC Gross County Product $94.0 b $24.5 b 35.2 MC Job Growth 565,133 92,514 19.6 Prof. & Bus. Services 101,149 22,834 29.2 Health Services 65,823 14,926 29.3 Administrative Services 39,677 8,957 16.1 Subtotal* 159,932 46,717 50.5 Other Major Sectors** 141,556 41,717 45.1 *33.8% of job base projected to generate 50.5% of Montgomery County s new jobs. **retail trade, financial services, education services, leisure and hospitality services
Rockville s Job Forecasts Core Sectors, 2010-2020 Sectors Current Share Increased Share(1) Retail Trade 491 573 Financial Services 661 716 Professional Services* 5,805 6,390 Education Services 501 584 Health Services 2,064 2,406 Leisure & Hospitality 455 506 State & Local Government 1,070 1,248 Totals 11,047 12,433 (1) reflects faster growing population, higher HH incomes, growing proportion of residents working in city, trend towards centralization of non-resident serving activities due to rising transportation costs. *includes business and administrative services
Rockville s future economy will build on the synergies and interdependencies of its core and residentially supporting sectors and will be shaped by its assets and liabilities.
The Rockville Economy Government Residential Retail Health & Education Business Activities
Rockville s Assets Define Its Competitive Advantages A multi-modal transportation network that focuses a large labor market on its business centers to the benefit of potential employers A concentration of government agencies and services with synergies to professional and business services establishments A high quality workforce and residential community Easily accessible educational and health facilities Developable sites and capacity to grow Substantial investment in infrastructure and mixed-use development with supporting cultural amenities
Rockville s Liabilities Define Its Competitive Disadvantages Some liabilities are inherent and the city cannot fundamentally alter these: condition and capacity of transportation services existing land use pattern and availability of land Cost of doing business in the city Higher costs must be justified by more and/or higher levels of services or higher returns on investment
Challenges Facing Rockville Having a sufficient supply and quality of labor to support future job growth Having sufficient housing resources in number, variety of types, and range of costs both for renters and owners to house an Increasing share of the city s workforce thereby reducing the economy s dependence on commuters to fill these local jobs making the city more attractive to business location while achieving greater energy and environmental efficiencies
Issues for Discussion The city s continuing household growth, its increasing diversity and age, and its economic profile; Growth of the city s housing stock to accommodate changing demand for a wider range of housing unit sizes, styles, densities, prices and tenure choices; Increased density and mix of land uses within the city s business centers to accommodate sufficient market scale and diversity of services to achieve synergy among public and private sectors activities; Growth policies and strategies that reflect the principles of smart growth, encourage workers in the city to live in the city and achieve a fiscally favorable non-residential land use mix within the city.
Thank You Questions for me?