Sales forecasts 2013 2014 Sales and employment forecasts
Commercial sales 2012 Total turnover EUR 129 billion (excl. VAT) 13% 12% 30 % Car sales Wholesale Retail trade Grocery trade 58% Source: Statistics Finland, Turnover of Trade.
350 Commerce is the largest employer in economic life 1,000 persons Commerce 300 250 200 150 100 50 Technology Construction Transports and warehousing Information and communication Hotel and restaurant services Forest industry Foodstuffs and textile industry 0 Chemical industry 2005 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Source: Statistics Finland, Labour Force Statistics. 2011 2012 Energy, water and waste management
Persons employed by commerce in 2012 300,000 persons 15% Car sales Wholesale 54% 31% Retail trade Source: Statistics Finland, Labour Force Survey.
Sales forecasts background The volume of retail sales did not grow in January May 2013 compared to the previous year, the volume of wholesale trade decreased by approximately three per cent and the volume of car sales by almost 30 per cent. The number of companies operating in commerce remained almost unchanged in 2009 2012 (Statistics Finland, Turnover of Trade). In January April 2013, the number of companies decreased by approximately six per cent compared to the corresponding period the previous year. Economic growth ground to a halt last year and will continue to decrease by approximately one per cent this year. Next year, the economy will begin to grow at a very slow rate. The next few years will be a time of slow growth as there are no genuine demand growth factors. Private investments and construction activity will continue to decrease this year and will start to grow slowly next year. Imports and exports will develop very slowly this year, and next year s growth will amount to a few per cent at most. Export growth is not enough to win back the portions of the global market that have been lost. Inflation will slow down to slightly under two per cent this year, and next year it will stay at approximately two per cent. The purchasing power of households and the number of employed people will decrease in 2013 2014.
20 15 Consumers expectations about their own finances for the year Balance figures Forecast of one s own finances Average forecast, 2000s 10 5 0-5 Statistics Finland. 3/00 6/00 9/00 12/00 3/01 6/01 9/01 12/01 3/02 6/02 9/02 12/02 3/03 6/03 9/03 12/03 3/04 6/04 9/04 12/04 3/05 6/05 9/05 12/05 3/06 6/06 9/06 12/06 3/07 6/07 9/07 12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 3/13 6/13
Commercial forecasts of the business cycle in Finland Balance figures 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 Business cycle situation Business cycle forecasts 10,00 0,00-10,00-20,00-30,00-40,00-50,00-60,00 Source: Confederation of Finnish Industries 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 3/13 6/13
Retail sales turnover Volume index, annual average 140 130 120 Trend 2000 2008 Trend 2009 2014** Turnover 110 100 90 80 70 2000 2001 2002 2003 Statistics source: Statistics Finland Forecast: Finnish Commerce Federation 2004 2005 2006 Sales volume will decrease by one per cent this year and grow by 0.5 per cent next year. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014**
180 Retail sales employees 1,000 persons 170 160 150 140 Statistics source: Statistics Finland Forecast: Finnish Commerce Federation. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014** The number of retail sales employees will not increase this year or next year.
140 130 120 Wholesale turnover Volume index, annual average Trend 2000 2008 Trend 2009 2014** Turnover 110 100 90 80 Statistics source: Statistics Finland Forecast: Finnish Commerce Federation. 70 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Sales volume will decrease by four per cent this year and grow by two per cent next year. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014**
110 Wholesale employees 1,000 persons 100 90 80 70 Statistics source: Statistics Finland Forecast: Finnish Commerce Federation. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 This year the number of employees in wholesale will decrease by three per cent and next year it will grow by two per cent. 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014**
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 2000 Trend 2000 2008 Trend 2009 2014** Sales Statistics source: Statistics Finland Forecast: Finnish Commerce Federation. 2001 2002 2003 Car sales turnover Volume index, annual average 2004 2005 2006 Sales volume will decrease by 13 per cent this year and grow by three per cent next year. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014**
50 Car sales employees 1,000 persons 45 40 35 30 Statistics source: Statistics Finland Forecast: Finnish Commerce Federation. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 The number of employees in car sales will decrease by seven per cent this year and grow by one per cent next year. 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014**
Commercial investments 2013 2014
Commerce as an investor in the national economy Last year, the volume of investments in the economy as a whole decreased by slightly over one per cent. The decrease in investments was, however, due to a decrease in investments by households. Business investments continued to grow: The volume of industrial investments increased by 11 per cent and of commercial investments by 14 per cent. With regard to commercial investments, only the amount of ICT investments decreased, -9 per cent. Car sales investments continued to decrease for the second consecutive year. Wholesale and retail investments increased the most in construction activity. The largest investor in economic life (excluding energy supply) was the technology industry, with investments of slightly under EUR 1.8 billion, and the second largest one was commerce, over EUR 1.6 billion. With regard to vehicles and construction, commerce was the largest investor. In fixed prices, investments by industry on the whole were 12 per cent lower last year compared to 2008 and commercial investments were five per cent higher. (Source: Statistics Finland.) The Finnish Commerce Federation investment survey was carried out in June among member companies employing a minimum of 20 wage earners. The results of the survey are mainly presented as balance figures: the percentage of respondents answering negatively to a question is deducted from the percentage of respondents answering positively.
Commerce as an investor in the national economy EUR million 2012 Fixed investments total Change, % Technology industry 1764 Chemical industry 29 Commerce 1612 Forest industry 24 Information and communication 1355 Finance and insurance 15 Construction 787 Commerce 14 Forest industry 685 Technology industry 10 Administrative and support services 659 Administrative and support services 8 Chemical industry 541 Food industry 5 Food industry 368 Construction 3 Finance and insurance 325 Accommodation and restaurants 0 Accommodation and restaurants 196 Information and communication -6 Textile industry 18 Tilastokeskus. Textile industry -10 0 1000 2000-50 0 50 100 150
Change in the value of this year s investments compared with plans Balance figures 50 40 30 20 10 0 21 14-10 -20-11 -30-40 -50 Finnish Commerce Federation investment survey 2/11 2/12 2/13
Impact of demand forecasts on investments Balance figures 50 40 30 20 22 10 7 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 Finnish Commerce Federation investment survey -29 2/11 2/12 2/13
Impact of availability and costs of funding on investments Balance figures 25 15 5 4-5 -4-15 -13-25 Finnish Commerce Federation investment survey. 2/11 2/12 2/13
25 Estimate of investments in 2014 Compared to the previous year Balance figures 15 5-5 -15-4 -4-7 -25 Finnish Commerce Federation investment survey. Investments in buildings and properties Investments in machines and equipment Vehicle investments
Commercial investments 2013 2014 Investments by companies operating in commerce will be lower than originally planned this year. Almost 30 per cent of companies have decreased their investments compared to plans. Demand forecasts have had a significant impact on investments. 40 per cent have decreased their investments compared to the previous year due to demand forecasts. The availability and costs of funding have also decreased investments compared to the previous year. 16 per cent have decreased their investments compared to the previous year due to the availability and cost of funding. According to the investment survey, construction investments will not grow this year and they will decrease next year. One third of companies will, however, increase construction this year. The investments that will be made mainly concern renovations. The growth in investments in machines and equipment will clearly slow down compared to last year, and investments will decrease next year. This year, however, 38 per cent of companies are going to increase their investments in equipment. The investments mainly concern the renewal of old equipment. Investments in vehicle fleets will decrease clearly already this year, and this trend will continue next year. This year, only five per cent of companies are going to increase their investments in cars. Car investments also mainly concern the renewal of old fleet.