Investor Community Presentation National Bank Financial: Prospering in a Low Return Environment Louis Vachon, Chairman, NBF Group Kym Anthony, President and CEO, NBF Group Toronto, April 6, 2005 Today s Agenda Changes in corporate structure A look at our past performance How we manage our business Risk (capital) management Client management 2 1
Changes in Corporate Structure of NBF Group Before Jean Turmel, President Financial Markets, Treasury, Investment Bank Kym Anthony, President and CEO National Bank Financial Louis Vachon, Senior Vice-President Treasury and Financial Markets Sam Reda, President and CEO Natcan Investment Management Since January 2005 Louis Vachon Chairman National Bank Financial Group and Natcan Investment Management Kym Anthony President and CEO National Bank Financial Group Sam Reda President and CEO Natcan Investment Management 3 Leveraging Our Group s Capabilities Investment Bank Principal Finance Benefits of integrated model One vision Risk dfaas culture Focus on cross-selling and revenue synergies between Treasury and NBF Retail Brokerage Derivatives 4 2
A Look at Our Past Performance During the last few years, National Bank has reduced its exposure to credit risk while taking on more market and business risk (related to capital markets and mutual funds) The strong performance of the period (yearly growth of 5.8% from Q1 2000 to Q1 2005) was a result of principally 2 events: Superior market risk management Catch-up with the rest of the industry 5 I - A Look at Our Past Perfomance Taking on More Market Risk In millions of dollars RWA credit RWA market (1) 49,000 4,000 47,000 3,500 45,000 43,000 41,000 39,000 37,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 35,000 1,000 Q3 99 Q1 00 Q3 00 Q1 01 Q3 01 Q1 02 Q3 02 Q1 03 Q3 03 Q1 04 Q3 04 Q1 05 (1) Including market risk and derivatives 6 3
I - A Look at Our Past Perfomance Steady Growth of Quarterly Revenues In millions of dollars Financial Markets Segment NBF Group 450 400 + 5.8% 350 300 + 9.8% 250 200 150 100 00 01 02 03 04 Q1 05 7 I - A Look at Our Past Perfomance Financial Markets Revenue (Rolling 12 quarters, detrended for growth) Growth Trend Volatility Acceptable volatility 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q1 00-Q4 02 Q2 00-Q1 03 Q3 00-Q2 03 Q4 00-Q3 03 Q1 01-Q4 03 Q2 01-Q1 04 Q3 01-Q2 04 Q4 01-Q3 04 Q1 02-Q4 04 Q2 02-Q1 05 8 4
I - A Look at Our Past Perfomance Revenue Growth Financial Markets Big 5 1 In billions of dollars (From Q1 2000 Q4 2004) 4.5 We re doing better than our peers 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 00 01 02 03 04 (1) Big 5 includes RBC, CIBC, TD, BMO, Scotia Before RBC business realignment 9 I - A Look at Our Past Perfomance Risk and Return of Financial Markets Segment (From Q1 2000 Q4 2004) CIBC Risk 25% 20% We re doing better than our peers TD 15% Scotia 10% BMO 5% RBC NBC 0% Return -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Before RBC business realignment 10 5
I - A Look at Our Past Perfomance Expense Ratio Financial Markets NA Big 5 Size does not matter 70% 60% 50% 57.0% 54.2% 49.8% 50.2% 60.8% 56.6% 54.8% 62.5% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Before RBC business realignment 2001 2002 2003 2004 11 How We Manage Our Business: Two Separate Components Risk (capital) management: Risk is defined as the volatility of earnings with a bias to avoid negative events Risk management is a core competency at National Bank We manage risk by: Diversification Being a niche player Being opportunistic Client management: Wealth Management Financial Markets Derivatives 12 6
Risk Management 13 II Risk Management Financial Markets Four Phase Cycle Liquidity Momentum Falling Rising Below Average Rebound Turbulence High Liquidity Market Risk Above Average Calm Speculation Source: CrossBorder Capital Comment: Level of liquidity influences duration and market risk. Change/momentum of liquidity determines credit risk Low High Low Credit Risk 14 7
II Risk Management Financial Markets Four Phase Cycle Liquidity Momentum Falling Rising Below Average Rebound Turbulence High 2002 2003 2001 Liquidity Market Risk 2004 2000 Above Average 1998 1999 Calm Speculation Source: CrossBorder Capital Comment: Level of liquidity influences duration and market risk. Change/momentum of liquidity determines credit risk Low High Low Credit Risk 15 II Risk Management Financial Markets Four Phase Cycle Liquidity Momentum Falling Rising Below Average Rebound Macro Trading FX Trading Credit Spread Products Fixed Income Fixed Income Equity Derivatives Convertibles Turbulence High Liquidity Market Risk Above Average Equity Trading Retail Brokerage Corporate Finance Corporate Lending IPO M&A Merchant Banking Calm Speculation Source: CrossBorder Capital Comment: Level of liquidity influences duration and market risk. Change/momentum of liquidity determines credit risk Low High Low Credit Risk 16 8
II Risk Management Three Different Types of Diversification Clientele base diversification: Fixed income Corporate lending & Finance Retail brokerage Equity Derivatives Commodities FX trading Alpha product (Hedge Fund) Client vs. proprietary Time diversification: Short term vs. long term investing Value investing Growth investing Geographical diversification: Nationwide strong presence: Quebec, Toronto complemented by at par contribution from Calgary and Vancouver Global (Merchant banking, hedge funds, external traders) 17 II Risk Management Successful Diversification Strategies Being a niche player Local dominance (Quebec) Global excellence Focus on high margin businesses Opportunism Early mover Innovations: Alternative asset management (Hedge Fund) External traders Pulp & Paper Absolute return investing Product differentiation Retail products Structured products 18 9
II Risk Management Risk Management Results Q4 04 Q1 05 ALM Treasury $11 13 Trading Treasury 45 54 Institutional 19 24 Total $64 $78 Investment gains Treasury $11 $5 Institutional $26 $29 Total $38 $35 19 II Risk Management Stable Income Stream In millions of dollars Trading, investment gains and ALM revenues Average (trailing 4 quarters) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 20 10
II Risk Management Beneficial Effect of Diversification Rolling 4 quarters, detrended for growth (From Q1 2000 Q4 2004) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Growth Trend WM Volatility WM Growth Trend FM Volatility FM 21 II Risk Management Variation of Revenues, Q1 2005 vs Q1 2004 In millions of dollars Total 6 Trading (6) ALM (7) Capital markets 3 Investment gains 10 Corporate banking - Other 6 (8) (6) (4) (2) - 2 4 6 8 10 12 22 11
Client Management 23 III Client Management Principal Business Units Wealth Management Retail Brokerage Correspondent Network Natcan Financial Markets Fixed Income Institutional Equities Investment Banking Corporate Banking Manufacturing Derivatives Principal Finance Merchant Banking Convertible Arbitrage Private Capital Corporate Portfolio International structured finance 24 12
III Client Management: Retail Brokerage Retail Brokerage Where we came from? Strong Quebec franchise inherited from Lévesque Beaubien Entrepreneurial culture Large number of small accounts First Marathon allowed us to set foot in Ontario and Western Canada Unique positioning in the industry Where are we going? Geographical diversification Shift to fee-based assets Better positioning with the Bank: Referral of small clients to Financial Planners Referral of client with brokerage profile to NBF Focus on larger accounts Better pricing Leveraging the relationships the Bank has with SME owners All these elements will lead to significative improvement in profitability 25 III Client Management: Retail Brokerage Retail Brokerage Bank-owned A B C Financial Strength Product and Services Very broad range of inhouse products Our way or the highway! NBF Entrepreneur Human Approach Ownership Fewer Products and Services Weaker Balance Sheet Financial Strength Products and Services Entrepreneurial / Flexible Participation in Profitability More Human to Clients and IAs Partners D F E Independent High value-add/ control from center Minimal value-add/ control from center 26 13
III Client Management: Retail Brokerage Retail Brokerage Where we came from? Strong Quebec franchise inherited from Lévesque Beaubien Entrepreneurial culture Large number of small accounts First Marathon allowed us to set foot in Ontario and Western Canada Unique positioning in the industry Where are we going? Geographical diversification Shift to fee-based assets Better positioning with the Bank: Referral of small clients to Financial Planners Referral of client with brokerage profile to NBF Focus on larger accounts Better pricing Leveraging the relationships the Bank has with SME owners All these elements will lead to significative improvement in profitability 27 III Client Management: Retail Brokerage AUM Retail Brokerage In billions of dollars Growing the business 50 45 40 38.1 41.5 43.2 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 29.8 30.4 32.3 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 28 14
III Client Management: Retail Brokerage AUM Retail Brokerage Outside Quebec Geographical diversification 40% 35% 33% 33% 30% 27% 29% 25% 22% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 29 III Client Management: Retail Brokerage Retail Brokerage Fee-Based Revenues (As a % of total revenue) Shift to fee-based assets 31% 29% 27% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 30 15
III Client Management: Retail Brokerage Average Gross Revenue Per Equity Trade Better pricing $210 $205 $206 $200 $195 $190 $185 $180 $181 $175 $170 $165 2004 Q1 2005 31 III Client Management: Retail Brokerage Pre-Tax Income Margin Improvement in profitability 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 32 16
III Client Management: Correspondent Network Correspondent Network Where we came from? Inherited from the First Marathon merger AUM was $16 billion in 2000, now $44 billion in 2004 Market leader in third-party clearing Where are we going? Continue to be the leader in this market: clearing for 1/3 of IDA Clearing for 725 investment advisors and back office of over 1,700 investment advisors Leveraging the distribution capacities of Corrnet Corrnet does business with 50% of the independant investment advisors Development of new products, larger amount of institutions we deal with Increase participation in new issues Leveraging of technological investments Lowers costs Improves efficiency 33 III Client Management: Correspondent Network, where are we going AUM Correspondent Network In billions of dollars Continuing leadership 50 44 40 40 30 20 16 21 25 30 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 34 17
III Client Management: Correspondent Network, where are we going AUM Retail Brokerage and Corrnet In billions of dollars Correspondent Network Retail Combined force 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 57 51 46 25 21 16 30 30 32 87 82 68 44 40 30 38 42 43 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 35 III Client Management: Correspondent Network, where are we going Number of Firm Clients Business development 95 90 88 87 87 90 85 80 79 75 70 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 36 18
III Client Management: Fixed Income Fixed Income Where we came from? Fixed income has always been an important component of National Bank Leading position in municipal and provincial bonds One of the largest and diversified inventories of bonds Large distribution network Where are we going? Bank s credit upgrade is having positive impact Increasing market share in provinces and corporate bonds Increase our presence as leads and co-leads Development of: Fixed income derivatives Structured products Securitization (both in-house and for 3rd parties) Execution of the strategies 37 III Client Management: Fixed Income, where are we going NBF Market Share How close are we to the objective of being in top 4? Federal Bonds Provincial Bonds Municipal Bonds Corporate Bonds 337% 108% 65% 3rd 1st 67% 7th 7th 2004 38 19
III Client Management: Institutional Equity Institutional Equity and Research Where we came from? The merger has put us in a much better position: Market share is now constantly in the top 6 Quality of research a strength Where are we going? Continue to have a strong presence in the market Continue to have top quality research in selected field where we think we can be a player Continue expansion and diversification of number of institutional clients we do business with 39 III Client Management: Institutional Equity Block Trading Market Share How close are we to the objective of being in top 4? Strong presence in the market 90% 80% 76.8% 70% 66.5% 60% 50% 40% 30% 6th 53.5% 7th 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 Q1 40 20
III Client Management: Institutional Equity Number of Top Ranked Analysts Top quality research 18 16 16 14 12 10 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 Q1 2005 41 III Client Management: Investment Banking Investment Banking National Bank Financial has made important strides in being recognized as a top investment firm in the market. In 2004, two major deals (Jean Coutu and Couche-Tard) have demonstrated that. Where we came from? Regional player Mostly seen as a 2 nd tier player by the majors Not enough expertise to undertake large deals Trend has been reversed Hiring of top quality people Where are we going? Alternative to the Big 5 Foreign firms have left Canada Independent firms don t have the distribution network Continue to expand outside of Quebec Continue to leverage the Bank s relation with Quebec Inc. Leverage our unique distribution network Continue to be a major player in the Income Trust industry Continue to pursue larger deals Expanding our scope in M&A 42 21
III Client Management: Investment Banking % of Deals as Lead or Co-Lead Improved credibility and leveraging our capabilities 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 43 III Client Management: Investment Banking Investment Banking Market Share How close are we to the objective of being in top 4? Increasing market share 80% 79% 78.8% 78% 5th 77% 76% 75% 76.1% 6th 74% 2003 2004 44 22
III Client Management: Investment Banking % of Client Shared With the Bank 35.0% Increasing integration with Corporate Banking 30.0% 28% 27% 29% 25.0% 23% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 45 III Client Management: Corporate Banking Corporate Banking Where we came from? Merger with investment banking group had a major impact We have been more selective in managing our risks (volumes have gone down from $5.9 billion to $2.8 billion) Improved capacity of syndication in Canada and the US Where are we going? Look for growth in selected fields Continue to aggressively manage our portfolio Acquisition finance important and growing 46 23
III Client Management: Derivatives Derivatives The role of NBF Group is to design and provide innovative products that are well suited to respond to the needs of our retail clients, both our own and 3rd parties Where are we going? Canada s population is growing older and that s even more true in Quebec Older people tend to be more risk averse Transposition of corporate risk management culture to retail clients Offer to clients that combine the three following elements: Relative return, Absolute return and Derivatives NBF Group has a unique position in the market with: Strong manufacturing capabilities Absolute return Relative return Derivatives Large distribution network Expertise in developing such products (Multimanaged GIC, Blue Chips GIC, etc.) 47 III Client Management: Derivatives Derivatives Value Chain: The Bank is well positioned to profit in all steps of the value chain Creation Structuring Manufacturing -Absolute return -Relative return Distribution -Retail banking -Retail NBF -Correspondent Network -Institutional clients -3rd party Retail 48 24
...So What About Those «Unusual Items»? We look at total revenues, not by type nor individual business line results Principal finance is integral part of diversification Helps us develop partnerships Gives us more reach Better understanding of trends No overexposure to one specific type of activity In search of inverted correlated activities with assymetrical payoffs Important to have all components in constructing portfolio 49 Key Takeaways NBF has made major strides to be recognized as a top-tier investment firm Portfolio of businesses geared to deliver results in most but not all economic environments Better coordination with the Bank will improve cross-selling Major strategic initiatives will improve Retail division profitability NBF Group is and will continue to be a core business to National Bank 50 25
Q&A Louis Vachon, Chairman, NBF Group Kym Anthony, President and CEO, NBF Group Toronto, April 6, 2005 51 Investor Relations: 514-394-0296 www.nbc.ca/investorrelations investorrelations@nbc.ca CAUTION REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS From time to time, makes written and oral forward-looking statements, included in this Investor Presentation, in other filings with Canadian regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, in reports to shareholders, in press releases and in other communications. All such statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include, among others, statements with respect to the economy, market changes, the achievement of strategic objectives, certain risks as well as statements with respect to our beliefs, plans, expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions. These forward-looking statements are typically identified by the words may, could, should, would, suspect, outlook, believe, anticipate, estimate, expect, intend, plan, and words and expressions of similar import. By their very nature, such forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific. There is significant risk that express or implied projections contained in such statements will not materialize or will not be accurate. A number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed in the forward-looking statements. Such differences may be caused by factors, many of which are beyond the Bank s control, which include, but are not limited to, changes in Canadian and/or global economic and financial conditions (particularly fluctuations in interest rates, currencies and other financial instruments), liquidity, market trends, regulatory developments and competition in geographic areas where the Bank operates, technological changes, consolidation in the Canadian financial services sector, the possible impact on our businesses of international conflicts and other developments including those relating to the war on terrorism and the Bank s anticipation of and success in managing the risks implied by the foregoing. The Bank cautions that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Investors and others who base themselves on the Bank s forward-looking statements should carefully consider the above factors as well as the uncertainties they represent and the risk they entail. The Bank therefore cautions readers not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The Bank does not undertake to update any forwardlooking statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by or on behalf of the Bank. 52 26