US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts

US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts November 2, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 5-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Federal Budget 1-4 US Federal Outlays & Receipts 5-6 US Federal Tax Receipts 7-9 Federal Government Receipts 1 US Federal Outlays 11-14 US Treasury Social Benefits Deficit Custom Duties & Merchandise Imports November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

8 6 4 2-2 -4 Figure 1. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Budget 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 - 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2-6 -8-1 -12-14 - Figure 2. 4.1 3.9 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS & RECEIPTS 3.7 (trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 Outlays (4.) 2.3 Receipts (3.3) 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1.9.9.7 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2.7 Page 1 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

12 11 Figure 3. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of total outlays*) US Federal Budget 12 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 5 * 12-month sum. 5 4 Figure 4. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEFICIT (as a percent of federal outlays*) 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2-2 * 12-month sum. Page 2 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

8 6 4 2-2 Figure 5. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Budget 8 6 4 2-2 -4-4 -6-8 -1 Total Total Excluding Net Interest Paid -6-8 -1-12 -12-14 - 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2-14 - 3 Figure 6. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT NET INTEREST PAID (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 3 25 25 2 2 1 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 1 Page 3 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Figure 7. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT (as a percent of nominal GDP) US Federal Budget -4 48 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 2-5 Q2 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 28 26 Figure 8. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES & RECEIPTS (as a percent of nominal GDP) 28 26 24 Expenditures (21.7) 24 22 Q3 22 2 2 Q2 Receipts (.5) 14 14 12 48 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 2 12 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 4 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

22 Figure 9. US Federal Outlays & Receipts 22 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of nominal GDP) 2 2 Q2 Average = 17.6 Receipts (.5) 14 14 12 48 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 2 12 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 28 26 Figure 1. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) 28 26 24 Expenditures (21.7) 24 22 Q3 22 2 2 14 14 12 48 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 2 12 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 5 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

2 14 12 1 Figure 11. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) US Federal Outlays & Receipts 2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 12 9 6 3-3 -6-9 -12 - - -21 Figure 12. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 12 9 6 3-3 -6-9 -12 - - -21 Page 6 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

1.8 1.6 Figure 13. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (trllion dollars, 12-month sum) US Federal Tax Receipts 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Individual Income Taxes (1.6) Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (1.2) Corporate Income Taxes (.3) 1.4 1.2 1. 1..8.8.6.6.4.4.2.2. 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2. * Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement. 6 Figure 14. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (as a percent of total receipts) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 Individual Income Taxes Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* Corporate Income Taxes 3 2 1 1 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 * Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement. Page 7 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

25 2 1 5-5 -1 - -2-25 25 Figure. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS (yearly percent change in 12-month sum) US Federal Tax Receipts Total Tax Receipts 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 25 2 1 5-5 -1 - -2-25 25 5-5 - Individual Income Tax Receipts 5-5 - -25 3 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2-25 3 2 1 Corporate Income Tax Receipts 2 1-1 24 2 12 8 4-4 -8 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9. -1 24 2 12 8 4-4 -8 Page 8 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 14 12 1 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 14 12 1 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 14 12 1 Figure. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. LEADING INDICATORS Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Leading Indicators (21=1) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. COINCIDENT INDICATORS Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Coincident Indicators (24=1) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS vs. LAGGING INDICATORS 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury Department and The Conference Board. US Federal Tax Receipts Federal Receipts (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Lagging Indicators (24=1) 13 125 12 1 11 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 1 1 112 19 13 1 97 94 91 88 85 82 79 76 73 7 67 13 125 12 1 11 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Page 9 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

7 Figure 17. Federal Government Receipts GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury. 2 4 35 Figure. GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: CUSTOM DUTIES (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 4 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury. Page 1 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

US Federal Outlays 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 Figure 19. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2. Total (4.) Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security (2.6) 2.8 2.4 2. 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2.8.8.4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2.4 7 Figure 2. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) 7 6 Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security 6 5 5 4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 4 Page 11 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

US Federal Outlays 99 91 83 75 67 59 51 43 Figure 21. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) 99 91 83 75 67 59 51 43 35 35 27 27 19 19 11 Health 11 Medicare Income Security Social Security 3 National Defense 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 3 38 33 28 23 Figure 22. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) 38 33 28 23 13 13 8 3 Health Medicare Income Security Social Security National Defense 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 8 3 Page 12 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

US Federal Outlays 7 5 143 131 119 17 95 83 Figure 23. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) 7 5 143 131 119 17 95 83 71 71 59 59 47 47 35 35 23 Medicare + Social Security 23 Income Security + Health National Defense 11 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury. 11 45 4 Figure 24. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (as a percent of total outlays) 45 4 35 35 3 Medicare + Social Security Income Security + Health 3 25 National Defense 25 2 2 1 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury. 1 Page 13 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

US Federal Outlays 2. Figure 25. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) 2. 1.6 Federal Government Spending in GDP (current dollars, saar) 1.6 1.2 Total Excluding Health, Medicare, Income Security, Social Security (current dollars, 12-month sum) 1.2.8.8.4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis..4 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 2.8 Figure 26. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Total (12-month sum) (4.) 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2. Federal Government Spending in GDP (saar) (1.3) 2.4 2. 1.6 1.6 1.2 Q3 1.2.8.8.4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis..4 Page 14 / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

US Treasury Social Benefits Deficit 5 145 Figure 27. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS RECEIPTS & OUTLAYS (billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale) 5 145 125 Social Security and Medicare Payments 125 85 Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts 85 65 65 45 45 25 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 25 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 1 5-5 -1 Figure 28. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS DEFICIT* (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 1 5-5 -1 * Social Security and Medicare payments less social insurance and retirement receipts. Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9. Page / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

4 35 3 Figure 29. Custom Duties & Merchandise Imports GROSS FEDERAL RECEIPTS: CUSTOM DUTIES & MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (billion dollars) Merchandise Imports (saar) Custom Duties (12-month sum) Sep 3 2 25 1 2 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 17 19 2 Source: US Treasury and US Bureau of the Census. Page / November 2, 217 / US Government Finance: Outlays and Receipts www.

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