This information is provided as a resource by Saskatchewan Agriculture staff All prices are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted. Please use this information at your own risk. Monthly Hog Market Update February 9, 2012 North American daily average hog prices (carcass Iowa/Minnesota.) were steady to higher in January and should continue trending upward into spring. Average daily base Iowa hog prices in January ranged between US$80.68 and US89.11 per hundredweight (cwt), with a non-weighted monthly average of US$84.08 per cwt, up US$3.05 per cwt or 3.8 per cent from the December average of US$81.03 cwt. (Source: LMIC). The Iowa/Minnesota carcass price on Wednesday, February 8, averaged US$86.14 per cwt, which is equivalent to just over CDN$177 per ckg, before the basis. The price of Maple Leaf Signature#3 Index 100 hogs on February 8 was $158.13 per ckg, with last week s weekly pool price being $158.31 per ckg. The Canadian dollar closed Wednesday at 100.39 cents, up 1.65 cents from the monthly closing average of 98.74 cents in January. The Canadian dollar ranged from 97.13 cents to 100.34 cents in January. United States Hog Slaughter The number of hogs slaughtered under federal inspection in the U.S. for the week ending February 4, 2012 was estimated at 2.137 million head, up 3.8 per cent from 2.059 million head over the same period a year ago, but down 1.4 per cent from 2.167 million head the previous week. Table 1: United States Weekly Hog Slaughter and Pork Production Weekly Hog Slaughter Year Ago Weekly Pork Production Year Ago Week 2010/2011 2011/2012 Per cent 2010/2011 2011/2012 Per cent Ending (thousand head), week Change (million lbs.), week Change 17-Dec 2,344.3 2,349.1 0.20% 485.3 487.1 0.37% 24-Dec 1,851.4 2,156.4 16.47% 382.1 445.6 16.62% 31-Dec 1,923.7 1,961.2 1.95% 399.5 409.3 2.45% 7-Jan 2,174.5 2,064.4-5.06% 455.2 432.6-4.96% 14-Jan 2,127.1 2,217.5 4.25% 444.6 463.1 4.16% 21-Jan 2,167.7 2,216.6 2.26% 451.9 462.2 2.28% 28-Jan 2,184.6 2,167.0-0.81% 453.7 453.0-0.15% 4-Feb 2,058.8 2,137.0 3.80% 427.9 446.6 4.37% 4 Wk. Avg. 2,134.55 2,184.53 2.34% 444.5 456.2 2.63% 8 Wk. Avg. 2,104.01 2,158.65 2.60% 437.5 449.9 2.84% Source: USDA, LMIC Slaughter numbers in the U.S. over the last eight weeks averaged an estimated 2.159 million head per week, up 2.6 per cent from 2.104 million head over the same period a year ago (Table#1). U.S. hog slaughter numbers over the last four weeks averaged an estimated 2.185 million head, up 2.3 per cent from 2.135 million head over the same period in 2011.
U.S. pork production for the week ending February 4, 2012 was estimated at 446.6 million lb., up 4.4 per cent from 427.9 million lb. the same week a year ago, but down 1.4 per cent from 453.0 million lb. the previous week. U.S. pork production over the last eight weeks ending February 4, 2012, averaged an estimated 449.9 million lb. per week, up 2.8 per cent from 437.5 million lb. the same period a year ago, while pork production over the last four weeks averaged 456.2 million lb., up 2.6 per cent from 444.5 million lb. the same period a year ago (Table#1). Canadian Hog Slaughter In Canada, federal and provincial hog slaughter numbers for the week ending January 28, 2012, averaged 424,888 head, down 2.6 per cent from 436,358 head the same week a year ago, and down 3.5 per cent from 440,218 head the previous week. In Canada, federal and provincial hog slaughter numbers over the seven weeks ending January 28, 2012, averaged 400,546 head, up 1.1 per cent from 396,356 head over the same seven weeks ending January 29, 2011. Total federal and provincial hogs slaughtered in 2011 were estimated at 21.095 million head, down slightly from 21.123 million in 2010. In Western Canada, federal and provincial hog slaughter numbers for the week ending January 28, 2012, averaged 170,062 head, down 2.2 per cent from 173,942 head the same week a year ago, and down 3.2 per cent from 175,639 head the previous week. In Western Canada, federal and provincial hog slaughter numbers for the seven weeks ending January 28, 2012, averaged 163,411 head, up 3.4 per cent from 158,057 head over the same seven weeks ending January 29, 2011. Total federal and provincial hogs slaughtered in Western Canada in 2011 were estimated at 8.567 million head, up 0.6 per cent from 8.517 million head in 2010. Meat In U.S. Cold Storage The United States pork stocks in cold storage totaled 481.7 million lb. on December 31, 2011, down 2.7 per cent from 495.1 million lb. on November 30, 2011, but up 1.2 per cent from 475.8 million lb. on December 31, 2010 (Table#2). The U.S. beef stocks in cold storage totaled 451.2 million lb. on December 31, 2011, up 2.2 per cent from 441.5 million lb. on November 30, 2011, and up 1.4 per cent from 445.0 million lb. on December 31, 2010. Table 2: United States Stocks in Cold Storage (Frozen) 1,000 Pounds Commodity December 31, 2010 November 30, 2011 December 31, 2011 Pork 475,829 495,117 481,673 Beef 444,963 441,546 451,199 Chicken 802,794 651,216 629,078 Turkey 191,560 194,227 205,679 Total Combined 1,915,146 1,782,106 1,767,629 Source: NASS 2
Total U.S. poultry stocks in cold storage totaled 837.2 million lb. on December 31, 2011, down 1.3 per cent from 848.0 million lb. on November 30, 2011, and down 16.0 per cent from 996.9 million lb. on December 31, 2010. U.S. combined pork, beef, chicken and turkey stocks in cold storage totaled 1.768 billion lb. on December 31, 2011, down 0.8 per cent from 1.782 billion lb. on November 30, 2011, and down 7.7 per cent from 1.915 billion lb. on December 31, 2010. Overall reductions were primarily due to lower chicken numbers in cold storage. Pork cutout values (All prices in U.S. dollars) The pork cutout value (185 lb.) in the U.S. was overall lower in January from December. The pork cutout value in the U.S. ended the week of February 4, 2012, averaging $84.88 per cwt, up 0.9 per cent from $84.14 per cwt the previous week, but down $4.07 per cwt or 4.6 per cent from $88.95 per cwt a year ago. Hams (51 to 52 per cent lean) ended the week averaging $65.37 per cwt, up $2.18 per cwt or 3.4 per cent from $63.19 per cwt the previous week, but down 9.9 per cent from $72.54 per cwt a year ago. Loins (51 to 52 per cent lean) averaged $93.18 per cwt, down $1.19 per cwt or 1.3 per cent from $94.37 per cwt the previous week, and down $4.03 per cwt or 4.1 per cent from $97.21 per cwt a year ago. Bellies (51 to 52 per cent lean) closed the week averaging $121.90 per cwt, up $3.93 per cwt or 3.3 per cent from $117.97 per cwt the previous week, and up $3.77 per cwt or 3.2 per cent from $118.13 per cwt a year ago. The average spread between the national pork cutout value and the Iowa/Minnesota base hog price declined from December to January and is currently less than the five year average. The price-spread the last two weeks has become negative which is likely not sustainable. U.S. $/cwt. $110 $105 $100 $95 $90 $85 $80 $75 $70 Weekly Average Iowa/Minn Hog Prices And Pork Cutout Values (U.S.$/cwt.) Week Ending Iowa/Minn Pork Cutout The price spread between pork and beef and pork and chicken decreased last week. The current price spread between pork and beef is above the five-year average while the price spread between pork and chicken (breasts) continues to be below the five-year average. 3
US$/cwt. $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 Pork, Beef, and Chicken Cutout Values (US$/cwt.) Week Pork Beef Chicken The estimated average annual cutout values have increased significantly for beef and pork over the last two years while chicken values have declined. The export market has been a significant factor for achieving these higher cutout values. US$/cwt. $200.00 $180.00 $160.00 $140.00 $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 Estimated Average Annual Pork, Beef, and Chicken Cutout Values, US$/cwt. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Pork Beef Chicken Market Overview and Prices North American daily cash hog prices (Iowa/Minnesota) were higher in January from December. Prices should trend higher into spring and summer. Pork cutout values have declined in January from December, likely due to some after Christmas weakness in meat demand. The amount of pork in U.S. cold storage has decreased 2.7 per cent from November to December, but is 1.2 per cent higher, year-over-year. Combined pork, beef and poultry stocks in U.S. cold storage decreased by 1.3 per cent from November to December, and are 16.0 per cent lower, year-over-year. The large reduction of chicken in cold storage is the main reason for overall declining meat in cold storage. 4
The February-to-June 2012 lean hog futures prices have been primarily moving upward since early January, before taking a pause the last few days. Continued global economic uncertainty and ample North American hog supplies have kept lean hog futures prices from moving significantly higher. Nearby futures prices are close to current cash hog prices. Continued strong export demand will be key for strong lean hog futures prices into the spring and summer, considering the negatively surrounding the global economy. 105 U.S Lean Hog Futures (U.S. $/cwt.) February 2012 to June 2012 Settlement Prices 100 U.S.$/cwt. 95 90 85 80 Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange Month/Day 12-Feb 12-Apr 12-May 12-Jun Based on the current lean hog futures prices and the Canadian exchange rate futures, the futures market is indicating that Saskatchewan Index 100 hogs could average between $150 and $160 per ckg for the remainder of the first quarter of 2012. Hog prices could further increase to average between $165 and $175 per ckg in the second quarter of 2012. With North American pork production expected to slowly start increasing in 2012, continued strong pork demand, particularly from strong pork exports, will be key in pushing hog prices higher over the coming months into spring and summer. For more information, contact the Livestock Branch: Brad Marceniuk, PAg, BSA, MSc Livestock Economist 933-5098 Brad.Marceniuk@gov.sk.ca 5