Sitka 2030 Comprehensive Plan September 6, 2016 Planning Commission Work Session on Sitka s Economy - Presentation by Sheinberg Associates
Sitka Today Sitka 2030
Sitka 2030 Comprehensive Plan www.sitkacomprehensiveplan.com Purpose, Process, Schedule NOTE: One email can reach all the full team (Barbara, Maegan, Michael and Sam) planning@cityofsitka.org
COMP PLAN PURPOSE: Path to Future. Community growth Land use Housing development Transportation and infrastructure investment Recreation Public services and facilities and more It is the Legal Basis for Zoning
COMP PLAN PROCESS: For each Topic. Packet 1. Goal(s) 2. Current Situation 3. Likely Future Situation 4. Options to Address 5. Choose Path(s) 6. Set Initiatives + Actions
Schedule April-Aug Land Use + Land Management Sept Economic Foundation Oct Housing Nov-Mar Utilities + Transportation Future Growth - R, C, I, Rec Community Services + Facilities Other Apr-May Draft plan review, refine Jun Assembly Adoption
Why Discuss the Economy?
Understanding the local economy is the foundation for Comprehensive Planning It is hard to make realistic decisions about the future without having a basic understanding of: What makes the economy tick Where opportunities lie (strengths) What challenges must be solved (weaknesses, threats) Does the borough have revenue to support community services, facilities, and infrastructure The goal of this part of tonight s meeting is to get a common understanding of the basics.
Triple Bottom Line
How Local Economies Work and Grow
Bring outside money into Sitka by having a good or service that is purchased Keeps money re-circulating locally by having a good or service bought by a Sitkan Delay it leaking out as long as you can Sharing and bartering keeps $ in town too $ $ $ $ $
Hire workers, buy supplies from Seattle, Ketchikan, online Outside Jobs Outside Income Outside Respending Sitka Income Hire workers, buy supplies from Sitka (shop locally) Sitka Jobs Sitka Respending
Strategies to Maintain and Grow the Local Economy 1. Support Local Businesses Basic 2. Maintain + Increase Money Coming into Sitka 3. More Local Businesses with Goods and Services for Purchase that Keep Money In/Recirculating Through Sitka Support or Service
5 Surprises with Economic Implications
Number of Sitkans age 65+ projected to grow 50% in 10 yrs. Per capita income is 4 th highest in Alaska, yet 20-30% Sitkans at or below poverty level. Over 1/3 of Sitka s total community income does NOT come from work. Maritime is BIG - Blue Jobs are at least 1 in 3 private sector jobs and 40% of income. 35% of Sitka workers are not Sitka residents.
Sitka Population (ADOLWD) 9,200 9,000 8,800 8,835 8,990 9,043 8,881 8,929 8,920 8,851 8,718 8,600 8,538 8,400 8,324 8,200 8,000 Note: Projections issued in June 2014 before oil prices dropped! 8,081 7,800 7,600 2015-2020
Sitka Components of Population Change, 2015-2045 Births Deaths Average Annual Net Migration Population Change Growth Rate 2015-2020 100 77-25 -2 0.0% 2020-2025 94 86-22 -14-0.2% 2025-2030 88 95-20 -27-0.3% 2030-2035 84 103-17 -36-0.4% 2035-2040 81 110-14 -43-0.5% 2040-2045 79 114-14 -49-0.6% Note: Average annual numbers are rounded to whole numbers. Source: ADOLWD, Population Projections 2015-2045, June 2014
Youth + Seniors YEAR 2015 2025 2035 Under 2,189 2,046 1,799 age 19 25% 23% 21% Over age 65 1,248 14% 1,882 21% 2,000 23% Source: ADOLWD, Population Projections 2015-2045, June 2014
Community Income
Sitka Total Personal Income: $545 Million Sources Dividends, Interest, Rent 22% Retirement (SS, earnings, Medicaid/Medicare, PFD, etc. ) Unemployment (0.2%) 12% 64% work SSI, SNAP, etc.(1%) Source: US BEA Economic Profile
Income Distribution
How many are Wealthy and how many are Not? Half of adjusted gross income (AGI) in Sitka comes from 17% of all tax filers. These 790 wealthiest tax filers earn $100,000 or more. 6% of adjusted gross income (AGI) in Sitka comes from 32% of all tax filers. These 1,500 tax filers earned less than $25,000 Next 25% of tax filers (1,140) made between $25- $50,000. These tax filers generated 14% of all AGI. Source: IRS, 2014 Income tax returns filed in zip code 99835
Income Distribution in Sitka based on Personal Income Tax Returns Filed, 2014 Adjusted gross income % of total No. of returns % of all returns TOTAL $303,677,000 100% 4,650 100% < $25,000 $17,706,000 6% 1,500 32% $25,000 under $50,000 $41,428,000 14% 1,140 25% $50,000 under $75,000 $45,412,000 15% 730 16% $75,000 under $100,000 $42,288,000 14% 490 11% $100,000 under $200,000 $88,717,000 29% 660 14% $200,000 or more $68,126,000 22% 130 3% Source: IRS 2014 Tax Returns
Average Rent (March 2016) Survey Area Contract Adjusted Kodiak Island $1,288 $1,448 Valdez-Cordova $1,189 $1,365 Juneau Borough $1,185 $1,333 Anchorage $1,135 $1,259 Sitka $979 $1,230 Matanuska Susitna $1,076 $1,224 Fairbanks North Star $1,049 $1,199 Ketchikan Gateway $990 $1,122 Kenai Peninsula $888 $1,059 Wrangell-Petersburg $700 $888 Alaska (Survey) Totals $1,100 $1,238 Source: AHFC/ADOLWD Annual Rental Survey
Poverty Indicators 32% of all tax filers had AGI of $25,000 or less, most of these folks are single 26% Sitka students qualify for free or reduced lunch 7% of Households below poverty thresholds (± 2%) 31% Households get SNAP (±13%) 27% Alaska Native Households below poverty (±12%) Sources: IRS tax returns, ADEED free and reduced lunch reports, 2010-2014 American Community Survey
(Wage +Salary) Employees
5,000 4,500 4,000 Employment (Ave Ann) by Type, 2006-2015 4,409 4,355 4,433 4,447 4,535 4,566 Private: Service Providing 3,500 3,000 2,669 2,426 2,493 2,418 2,357 2,387 Private: Goods Producing 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 999 1,004 728 767 850 558 649 665 662 686 699 710 346 385 367 363 354 340 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Governments: Local (CBS, STA, SSD) Government: State Government: Federal Source; ADOLWD, QCEW
$100,000,000 Total Wages by Type, 2006-2015 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Government: Federal Government: State Governments: Local (CBS, STA, SSD) Private: Goods Producing Private: Service Providing Source; ADOLWD, QCEW
Resident + Non-Resident In Sitka (2014): 65% locals 5% non-local Alaskans 30% non-residents For comparison, locals are: 65% in Sitka, 67% in Alaska, 64% in Ketchikan, 74% in Juneau, and 50% in Petersburg Employees Source: ADOLWD, Occupational Data
Non-Resident Workers in the Private Sector in Sitka, 2014 Industry Workers Wages Manufacturing 514 $7,447,051 Construction 155 $6,178,353 Accommodation and Food 243 $3,089,315 Transportation and Warehousing 184 $3,003,321 Health Care and Social Assistance 94 $2,964,930 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 60 $1,113,297 Retail Trade 91 $979,740 Ag, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 44 $777,321 Professional, Scientific, Technical Svs 31 $769,112 Other 31 $640,324 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 30 $513,557 Other Services 29 $329,341 Education 82 $276,015 Wholesale Trade 3 $25,866 Grand Total 1,591 $28,107,543 Source: ADOLWD, Occupational Data
Complete Picture - Workforce What is creating jobs and income in Sitka? How are those industries doing? Opportunities & Challenges
Complete Picture of Work (4600 Employees + 1300 Small Biz Owners) No. WORKERS EARNINGS Ag, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 683 12% $49,833,160 18% Local Government(s) 710 12% $36,990,758 14% Manufacturing 781 13% $34,663,919 13% Health, Social Asset, Educational Services 727 12% $33,641,531 12% 49% 57% Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014
Workforce Complete Picture 1. The Ocean (26% of all, 32% of private) 2. Health Care & (private) Education Services (12%) 3. Local Governments - CBS, STA, SCH, SSD (12%) 4. Tourism-Related (10%) (accommodations & food services (8%), arts, entertainment, recreation (2%) 5. Retail (9%) 6. Construction (5%) Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014
Blue Jobs Maritime workforce - 1,530 (26% of all) Maritime earnings - $91 Million (33% of all) Commercial fishing Seafood processing Boat building & repair Marine transportation (whale watching, 6-pak charters, etc.) Boat distributors Fishing lodges Marine surveyors, educators, engineers, scientists Harbors, marinas USCG Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014
Sitkans are Competitive Commercial Harvesters Sitka has 1.2% of Alaska s population But, in 2015 Sitkans commercial harvest was: 2.7% of all pounds that Alaskan s harvested 6.3% of all gross earnings from commercial fishing by Alaskans Sources: ADOLWD Population Estimates, Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission
Competitive Edge: People are Making Things in Sitka! The Location Quotient for Manufacturing in Sitka is very high! (4.17) & its NOT just Ocean-Related Things In Sitka: 12 larger manufacturing businesses with employees 20 small manufacturing businesses Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014
Many Health Care Services + Choices SEARCH Sitka Community Hospital Out Patient Social Assistance Nursing / Residential Care Other As a health care center, this still brings new money to Sitka, as well as preventing local leakage for health services Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014
STEAM + Educational Services + Assets + Arts/Cultural Sheldon Jackson Campus and Facilities Sitka Science Center Mt Edgecumbe UAS Whale fest Sitka Fine Arts Camp Sitka Summer Music festival Homeskillet Sitka Tlingit Community + Culture STA Environmental Research Lab Other
Tourism 9% Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014
Construction 5% workforce 30% of gross biz sales Sources: Sitka CAFR (FY2015), ADOLWD QCEW, Census Nonemployer Statistics
Commerce: Gross Sales by Sitka Businesses
Commerce Retail Trade and Construction sales drive commerce. 2015 Gross business sales: $477 Million Up over 5 years But, down 2% last year (2015) Worrisome: manufacturing dropped 29% between 2011 and 2015 (but up last year) Source: FY 15 Sitka CAFR
Local Government(S) 12% Sources: ADOLWD, QCEW (2015), US Census Nonemployer Statistics, 2014
City Fiscal Reality Does the borough have revenue to support community services, facilities, and infrastructure? CBS is down $7 M compared to 5 years ago, due to combination of increased expenses and reduced revenue $2.5 M shortfall for next fiscal year
Moving Forward (economically) Build on Assets and Competitive Advantages
Assets & Advantages (see list in packet) Natural Economic/ Infrastructure Human/ Social/ Cultural