California Travel Impacts by County, 1992-2016p May 2017 A Joint Marketing Venture of Visit California and the Governor s Office of Business Development (GO-Biz)
PREPARED BY Dean Runyan Associates, Inc. 833 SW 11 th Avenue, Suite 920 Portland, Oregon 97205 503.226.2973, Fax: 503.226.2984 for Visit California 555 Capitol Avenue, Suite 1100 Sacramento, CA 95814 916.444.4429 www.visitcalifornia.com STATE OF CALIFORNIA Edmund G. Brown, Jr., Governor GOVERNOR S OFFICE OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT (GO-BIZ) Panorea Avdis, Director for Jobs and Business Development, Office of the Governor VISIT CALIFORNIA Caroline Beteta, President & CEO Ryan Becker, Vice President of Communications Dan Mishell, Research Director
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides detailed statewide, regional and county travel impact estimates for California from 1992 to 2016. The estimates for 2016 are preliminary. The report also provides an analysis of travel-generated tax revenue and transient occupancy tax receipts for jurisdictions through the 2016 fiscal year. THE CALIFORNIA TRAVEL INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO EXPAND The California travel industry grew for the seventh consecutive year following the 2007-2009 recession. All visitation and economic impact estimates increased for the year. Spending. Total direct travel spending in California was $126.3 billion in 2016 (preliminary). This represents a 3.1 percent increase over 2015 in current dollars and a 3.2 percent increase in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Employment. Direct travel generated employment was 1,096,000 in 2016, a 3.4 percent increase over 2015. Travel-generated employment has increased at this 3.4 annual rate since 2010. Tax Revenues. Travel-generated state and local tax revenue was $10.3 billion in 2016, an increase of 3.8 percent over the preceding year. 1 Over seventy percent of these tax revenues were paid by visitors (e.g., lodging and sales taxes). The remainder were paid by travel industry employees and businesses (e.g., property and income taxes). This state and local tax revenue was equivalent to $780 per California resident household ($550 for taxes paid by visitors, $230 for taxes paid by employees and businesses.) Visitation. Visitor arrivals on domestic flights (36.9 million in 2016) increased by 7.2 percent. 2 Room demand increased by 1.8 percent for the year. 3 Origin. Six out of ten dollars spent at California visitor destinations were attributable to residents of other states and countries. However, the share of international travel in California (and the U.S.) has declined due the strength of the U.S. dollar and decreased visitation. Secondary Impacts. The re-spending of travel industry income by businesses and employees produces secondary effects. In 2016, these secondary impacts were 749,200 jobs with earnings of $46.1 billion. Total (direct and secondary) employment was 1.8 million jobs with earnings of $91.5 billion. Gross Domestic Product. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the California travel industry was $68.6 billion in 2016. This represents about two and one-half percent of the total GDP of the state. 1 Local and state tax revenue sum to $10.2 million in the table on page 7. This discrepancy is due to the rounding of the separate components in the table. 2 Department of Transportation Origin and Destination survey. Estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. 3 STR Inc. lodging report prepared for Visit California. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
County Total Employment TAX REVENUE IMPACTS OF THE CALIFORNIA TRAVEL INDUSTRY The California travel industry contributes more tax revenue to state and local governments than would be expected based on the size of the industry. Whereas the gross domestic product and employee earnings represent about two and one-half percent of the state economy, the travel industry generated 4.3 percent of tax revenue in the 2016 fiscal year. Not only are most travel industry goods and services taxed at the point of sale, but a large share of these commodities (lodging and motor fuel) are taxed at rates that are greater than the general sales tax. Furthermore, a large share of these taxes is not borne by California residents. Production & Import Taxes as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product 3 Information Construction Health Care Manufacturing Retail trade Travel All Industries 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent of Gross Domestic Product THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY BENEFITS ALL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA Although most travel spending and related economic impacts occur within California s primary metropolitan areas, the travel industry is important throughout California. In general, the counties with less total employment have a bigger share of travel-generated employment. Travel-Generated Employment as a Percent of Total Employment, 2015 18 Lowest 31 to 40 21 to 30 11 to 20 10 Highest 0% 5% 10% 15% Travel-Generated Employment 3 Most of the taxes paid by business firms to local, state and federal governments are included except income taxes. This includes property taxes, licenses and fees and the sales and excise taxes collected from consumers. See page 17 of full report. The data in this chart is for 2015. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures ii Preface iii I U.S. Travel 1 II State Travel Impacts 5 Impacts of Travel in California: A Summary 6 Recent Travel Trends in California 7 Origin 9 Gross Domestic Product of California Travel Industry 10 Direct, Secondary and Total Impacts 11 III State and Local Government Revenue 17 Industry Gross Domestic Product and Taxes 17 California Tax Structure 18 Travel Industry Tax Revenue 19 Summary 20 IV Regional Travel Impacts 25 V County Travel Impacts 41 VI Transient Occupancy Tax Receipts 117 Appendices 137 A 2016 Travel Impact Estimates 139 B Key Terms and Definitions 142 C Regional Travel Impact Model 143 D Travel Industry Accounts 144 E California Earnings & Employment by Industry Sector 155 F Industry Groups 156 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE I
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES U.S. Travel Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-2016p 2 Spending by Foreign and Resident Travelers in U.S. 2 Foreign Share of U.S. Internal Travel 3 Overseas Arrivals 3 Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies compared to U.S. Dollar 3 U.S. Travel Industry Employment 4 Components of US Travel Industry Employment 4 State Travel Impacts California Direct Travel Impacts, 2000-2016p (summary) 7 California Travel Spending in Current and Real Dollars 8 Domestic Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals at California Airports 8 Overnight Person-Trips 8 International Visitor Spending 9 Visitor Spending by Origin, 2016p 9 Overseas Arrivals at California Ports of Entry 9 Travel Spending and GDP of California Travel Industry, 2016p 10 Total Employment and Earnings, 2016p 11 Direct and Secondary Employment, 2016p 13-14 Travel Impacts, 1992-2016p (detail) 15-16 State and Local Government Revenue Production and Import Taxes as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product 17 California State and Local Government Tax Revenues 18 California Travel Industry State and Local Government Tax Revenues 19 California State and Local Tax Revenues 20 Local and State Travel-Generated Tax Revenue per Household by County 20-21 Total and Visitor-Generated Taxable Sales by County 22-23 Regional Travel Impacts Summary Tables 26-28 Detailed Tables 29-40 County Travel Impacts Summary Tables 42-55 Total and Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings 56-57 Detailed Tables 58-115 Transient Occupancy Tax Receipts California TOT Receipts, 2000-2016 Fiscal Years 117 TOT Receipts by County, 2006-2016 Fiscal Years 118-119 TOT Receipts by Jurisdiction, 2006-2016 Fiscal Years 120-136 PAGE II DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
PREFACE The purpose of this study is to document the economic significance of the travel industry in California from 1992 through 2016. These findings show the level of travel spending by those traveling to and through the state, and the impact this spending has on the economy in terms of earnings, employment and tax revenue. This study was prepared for Visit California. Special thanks are due to Dan Mishell, Research Director, Research, for his support and assistance. Dean Runyan Associates, Inc. 833 SW 11th Ave., Suite 920 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 226-2973 www.deanrunyan.com DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE III
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I. U.S. TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 1
*Note: expend expend 1 See http://www.be Output (Billions) $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 Real Current 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 PAGE 2 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
Year over Year Pct. Chg. The foreign share of U.S. internal travel declined by more than a full percent point from 2015 to 2016 (18.2 percent to 17.1 percent). This has been due to two factors. First, overseas arrivals began to show a decreasing rate of growth in the beginning of 2016 and actually declined in absolute numbers in the most recently reported months. Secondly, the value of foreign currencies has fallen relative to the U.S. dollar. This not only discourages travel to the U.S., but also means that foreigners that do travel to the U.S. have less money to spend on goods and services. Foreign Share of U.S. Internal Travel Spending Overseas Arrivals (Year over Year Percent Change) 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10 15-Jan 15-Jun 15-Dec 16-Mar 16-Aug 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies compared to U.S. Dollar Monthly Averages, Jan 2015 through Dec 2016 75 Jan 15 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Japan China Europe Canada Britain Sources: Foreign Share of U.S Internal Travel: Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounts and International Transactions. Overseas Arrivals: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, U.S. Department of Commerce. Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies: XE Corporation. (www.xrates.com) DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 3
The following two graphs show employment trends since 2000 and the composition of travel industry employment since the recession. The first graph shows that travel-generated employment recovered from the 2008-09 recession by 2013. Since then, however, there has been no significant employment growth in the industry. In recent years, the leisure and hospitality sector has accounted for almost two-thirds of all travel industry employment while air and ground transportation and related services have account for somewhat more than 20 percent. (In 2000, the leisure and hospitality sector accounted for 61 percent of all employment.) U.S. Travel Industry Employment 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounts. Components of U.S. Travel Industry Employment, 2012-2016 Transportation 22% Shopping & Other, 13% Leisure & Hospitality 65% Source: See above graph. Leisure & hospitality includes accommodations, food services, and arts, entertainment & recreation. Transportation and other includes retail and all other industries. PAGE 4 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
II. STATE TRAVEL IMPACTS DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 5
The multi-billion dollar travel industry in California is a vital part of the state and local economies. The industry is represented primarily by retail and service firms, including lodging establishments, restaurants, retail stores, gasoline service stations, and other types of businesses that sell their products and services to travelers. The money that visitors spend on various goods and services while in California produces business receipts at these firms, which in turn employ California residents and pay their wages and salaries. State and local government units benefit from travel as well. The state government collects taxes on the gross receipts of businesses operating in the state, as well as sales and use taxes levied on the sale of goods and services to travelers. Local governments also collect sales and use taxes generated from traveler purchases. IMPACTS OF TRAVEL IN CALIFORNIA: A SUMMARY Total direct travel spending in California was $126.3 billion in 2016 (preliminary). This represents a 3.1 percent increase over 2015 in current dollars and a 3.2 percent increase in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Direct travel generated employment was 1,096,000 in 2016, a 3.4 percent increase over 2015. Travel-generated employment has increased at this 3.4 annual rate since 2010. Travel-generated state and local tax revenue was $10.3 billion in 2016, an increase of 3.8 percent over the preceding year. 1 Over seventy percent of these tax revenues were paid by visitors (e.g., lodging and sales taxes). The remainder were paid by travel industry employess and businesses (e.g., property and income taxes). This state and local tax revenue was equivalent to $780 per California resident household ($550 for taxes paid by visitors, $230 for taxes paid by employees and businesses.) Visitor arrivals on domestic flights (36.9 million in 2016) increased by 7.2 percent. 2 The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the California travel industry was $68.6 billion in 2016. This represents about two and one-half percent of the total GDP of the state. The re-spending of travel industry income by businesses and employees produces secondary effects. In 2016, these secondary impacts were 749,200 jobs with earnings of $46.1 billion. Total (direct and secondary) employment was 1.8 million jobs with earnings of $91.5 billion. 1 Local and state tax revenue sum to $10.2 million in the table on page 7. This discrepancy is due to the rounding of the separate components in the table. 2 Department of Transportation Origin and Destination survey. Estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. PAGE 6 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS IN CALIFORNIA California Direct Travel Impacts, 2000-2016p Annual % Chg. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016p 15-16p 00-16p Spending ($Billions) Total (Inflation adjusted $) 101.6 106.5 106.4 122.4 126.3 3.2% 1.4% Total 81.0 92.2 100.3 122.5 126.3 3.1% 2.8% Other 9.1 8.6 7.9 10.6 11.4 7.5% 1.4% Visitor 71.9 83.6 92.4 111.9 114.9 2.7% 3.0% Non-transportation 58.6 65.8 71.8 89.1 93.1 4.5% 2.9% Transportation 13.3 17.9 20.6 22.8 21.8-4.6% 3.1% Earnings ($Billions) Earnings 24.3 28.2 30.6 41.3 45.4 9.9% 4.0% Employment (Thousands) Employment 902 911 896 1,059 1,096 3.4% 1.2% Tax Revenue ($Billions) Total 9.4 11.6 13.3 16.3 17.1 5.0% 3.8% Local 2.5 2.8 3.4 4.6 4.9 7.3% 4.5% Visitor 1.7 2.0 2.2 3.2 3.4 6.6% 4.4% Business or Employee 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 8.9% 4.6% State 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 0.8% 2.9% Visitor 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.9 3.9-1.0% 2.7% Business or Employee 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 6.0% 3.6% Federal 3.6 4.7 5.0 6.4 6.8 6.8% 4.1% Other spending includes resident air travel, travel arrangement and reservation services, and convention and trade show organizers. Non-transportation visitor spending includes accommodations, food services, retail, food stores, and arts, entertainment & recreation. Visitor transportation spending includes private auto, auto rental, other local ground transportation and one-way airfares. Earnings include wages & salaries, earned benefits and proprietor income. Employment includes all full- and part-time employment of payroll employees and proprietors. Local tax revenue includes transient occupancy taxes, sales taxes and airport passenger facility charges paid by visitors, and the property tax payments and sales tax payments attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses. State tax revenue includes sales tax payments and motor fuel tax payments of visitors, and the income tax payments and sales tax payments attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses. Federal tax revenue includes motor fuel excise taxes and airline ticket taxes, and the payroll and income taxes attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 7
Thousands of Jobs Millions Billions $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 Real Current 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p 950 900 850 800 California Travel Spending in Current & Real Dollars Domestic Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals at California Airports Travel-Generated Employment 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p Inflation-adjusted (real dollar) travel spending increased by 3.2 percent from 2015 to 2016 (preliminary), following a 4.8 percent increase the preceding year (see top graph, left). Over the past five years, real and current travel spending have had similar rates of increase. Sources: Real dollar travel spending was adjusted with a composite of price indices for the West Urban CPI, California room rates reported by STR, Inc., California gasoline prices reported by the Energy Information Administration, and airfares to California airports reported by the U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination survey. Visitor air travel on domestic flights to California destinations (36.9 million) increased by 7.2 percent in 2016. During the past three years, visitor arrivals on domestic flights have increased at 5.7 percent per year. Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, Inc. and Bureau of Transportation Statistics (U.S. Dept. of Transportation). Note: These estimates are for visitor arrivals only. They do not include return travel of California residents or connecting flights normally reported in air passenger statistics. Travel-generated employment has increased by 3.4 percent per year since 2010. Source: Dean Runyan Associates. PAGE 8 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
Millions Billions of Real 2015 US$ International Share ORIGIN $26 $24 $22 $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 International Visitor Spending Amounts in Real 2016$ Spend Share 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% The share of international travel spending in California has flattened over the past two after substantial increases in previous years. This is consistent with national trends. (See page 3.) Sources: Tourism Economics, International Trade Administration (U.S. Department of Commerce) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce). Visitor Spending by Origin, 2016p Other US $43.0 37% Int'l. $25.2 22% California $46.7 41% In 2016, about six out of every ten dollars spent at California visitor destinatons were attributable to residents of other states and countries. Sources: TNS Travels America visitor survey and sources cited for preceding graph. Overseas Arrivals at California Ports of Entry July June FY 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Overseas arrivals at California Ports of Entry increased by 11.7 percent for the year ending in June 2016. Note: 2016 calendar year data was not available at the time that this report was prepared. Sources: Office of Immigration Statistics (U.S. Department of Homeland Security). California total is sum of LA and SF Ports of Entry. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 9
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF CALIFORNIA TRAVEL INDUSTRY Gross Domestic Product (GDP, also referred to as value-added) is a measure of economic activity that reflects the market value of the labor and capital used to produce goods and services. The GDP for a particular industry within a state excludes the intermediate inputs purchased by businesses from other firms in the production process. It includes payments to individuals in the form of earnings, indirect business taxes to government, and other payments to individuals and corporations. 2 The relationship between travel spending and the GDP of the California travel industry is shown below. 3 California travel industry GDP of $68.6 billion represents approximately two and one-half percent of total California GDP. Travel Spending and Gross Domestic Product of California Travel Industry, 2016p ($ Billions) $140 2 Indirect not includ 3 The trav recreation Billions $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $57.7 Intermed. Inputs $57.7 $23.2 Other Value-Added $45.4 Earnings $23.2 $23.2 $45.4 $45.4 Spending ($126.3) GDP ($68.6) PAGE 10 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
DIRECT, SECONDARY AND TOTAL IMPACTS Travel spending in California brings money into many communities in the form of business receipts. Portions of these receipts are spent within the state for labor and supplies. Employees, in turn, spend a portion of their earnings on goods and services in the state. This re-spending of travel-related revenues creates indirect and induced impacts. To summarize: Direct impacts represent the employment and earnings attributable to travel expenditures made directly by travelers at businesses throughout the state. Indirect impacts represent the employment and earnings associated with industries that supply goods and services to the direct businesses (i.e., those that receive money directly from travelers throughout the state). Induced impacts represent the employment and earnings that result from purchases for food, housing, transportation, recreation, and other goods and services made by travel industry employees, and the employees of the indirectly affected industries. Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in California, 2016p Employment (Thousands) Earnings (Billions) Indirect 250 Induced Induced 499 $29.4 Direct $45.4 Direct 1,096 Indirect $16.6 Note: Indirect and induced impacts estimated by Dean Runyan Associates with an IMPLAN model (IMPLAN Group, LLC.). Total employment was 1,845,000. The employment multiplier for 2016is 1.68 (1,845/1,096). Total earnings were $91.5 billion. The earnings multiplier is 2.01 ($91.5/$45.4) DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 11
The impacts in this section are presented in terms of the employment and earnings of eleven major industry groups. These industry groups are similar, but not identical to the business service (or commodity) categories presented elsewhere in this report. (The specific industries that comprise these major groups are listed in Appendix D.) Direct travel impacts, such as those discussed in the first part of this section and the regional and county impacts presented elsewhere in this report are found in the following industry groups: Accommodations & Food Services Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Trade Transportation As is indicated in the following tables and graphs, the total direct employment and earnings of these four industry groups is identical to the total direct employment and earnings shown in the first part of this section. The only difference is that these industry groups represent industry groupings (firms) rather than commodity or business service groupings. The indirect and induced impacts of travel spending are found in all thirteen industry groupings shown in the following tables and graphs. To summarize the primary secondary impacts: Professional and Business Services (145,100 jobs and $10.2 billion earnings). A variety of administrative services (e.g., accounting and advertising) are utilized by travel businesses (indirect effect). Employees of these firms also purchase professional services (induced effect). Education and Health Services (106,800 jobs and $7.0 billion earnings). The secondary effects are primarily induced, such as employees of travel-related businesses use of medical services Financial Activities (87,400 jobs and $5.3 billion earnings). Both businesses and individuals make use of banking and insurance institutions. Other Services (53,800 jobs and $2.6 billion earnings). Employees of travel-related businesses purchase services from various providers, such as dry cleaners and repair shops. It should be emphasized that the estimates of indirect and induced impacts reported here apply to the entire state of California and do not necessarily reflect economic patterns for individual counties, regions or sub-regions within the state. While total economic impacts can be calculated on a county or regional level, such a detailed analysis is not included in this study. In general, geographic areas with lower levels of aggregate economic activity will have smaller secondary impacts within those same geographic boundaries. PAGE 12 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
Direct and Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending in California, 2016p Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Ent., & Rec. Trade Prof. & Bus. Services Transport Educ. & Health Services Financial Activities Other Services Manuf. & Utilities Information Public Administration Construction Nat. Resources Direct Secondary 0 200 400 600 800 Direct and Secondary Employment (000) Direct and Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in California, 2016p Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Ent., & Rec. Trade Prof. & Bus. Services Transport Educ. & Health Services Financial Activities Other Services Manuf. & Utilities Information Public Administration Construction Nat. Resources Direct Secondary 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Direct and Secondary Earnings ($Billion) See page 11 for definition of secondary employment. See table notes on page 14 and Appendix D for definitions of industry groups. The data represented by these graphs are shown in the following tables. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 13
Direct and Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending in California, 2016p (thousand jobs) Secondary Grand Industry Group Direct Indirect Induced Total Total Accommodation & Food Services 618.8 22.6 60.2 82.9 701.6 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 263.0 32.8 16.2 49.0 312.0 Retail Trade 90.2 9.2 96.0 105.1 195.3 Professional & Business Services 30.1 84.5 60.6 145.1 175.2 Transportation 93.7 17.2 15.0 32.3 126.0 Education & Health Services 1.9 104.9 106.8 106.8 Financial Activities 32.0 55.3 87.4 87.4 Other Services 10.4 43.4 53.8 53.8 Manufacturing & Utilities 14.4 15.9 30.2 30.2 Construction 6.1 13.2 19.4 19.4 Information 9.8 8.2 18.0 18.0 Public Administration 5.6 5.8 11.5 11.5 Natural Resources & Mining 3.8 4.2 7.9 7.9 All Industries 1,095.8 250.3 498.9 749.2 1,845.0 Direct and Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in California, 2016p ($Millions) Secondary Grand Industry Group Direct Indirect Induced Total Total Accommodation & Food Services 22,920 680 1,810 2,490 25,400 Professional & Business Services 2,100 5,980 4,230 10,210 12,310 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 10,310 1,330 600 1,920 12,240 Transportation 6,930 1,160 940 2,100 9,030 Retail Trade 3,170 730 5,030 5,760 8,930 Education & Health Services 70 6,930 7,000 7,000 Financial Activities 1,860 3,450 5,300 5,300 Manufacturing & Utilities 1,250 1,500 2,740 2,740 Information 1,600 1,090 2,690 2,690 Other Services 680 1,920 2,600 2,600 Construction 440 980 1,430 1,430 Public Administration 650 640 1,290 1,290 Natural Resources & Mining 220 310 520 520 All Industries 45,420 16,640 29,430 46,070 91,490 Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Implan Group, LLC. See page 11 for definitions of types of secondary employment. These industry groups are not equivalent to the categories used in the direct impact tables used in this report. See Appendix D. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Detailed direct travel impacts for 1992 through 2016p follow. PAGE 14 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
California Travel Impacts, 1992-2004 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Billion) Destination Spending 45.7 47.0 52.9 59.0 71.9 69.2 77.5 Other Travel* 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.8 9.1 8.1 8.0 Total Direct Spending 52.4 53.7 60.0 66.8 81.0 77.4 85.5 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Billion) Hotel, Motel 21.3 21.7 25.2 29.8 37.1 34.9 39.2 Private Home 8.2 8.5 9.1 9.4 10.9 11.0 12.1 Campground 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 Vacation Home 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 Day Travel 12.6 13.1 14.6 15.6 19.1 18.2 20.5 Destination Spending 45.7 47.0 52.9 59.0 71.9 69.2 77.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Billion) Accommodations 7.0 7.3 8.7 10.4 12.5 11.5 12.8 Food Service 10.2 10.6 11.8 13.8 16.6 16.9 19.0 Food Stores 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 Local Tran. & Gas 5.2 5.4 6.5 6.5 10.0 9.2 12.0 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 8.5 8.7 9.7 10.7 12.6 12.3 13.4 Retail Sales 10.1 10.4 11.6 12.7 14.8 13.9 14.4 Visitor Air Tran. 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.3 Destination Spending 45.7 47.0 52.9 59.0 71.9 69.2 77.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Billion) Accom. & Food Serv. 6.8 6.9 7.8 9.0 10.3 11.2 12.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3.2 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.4 5.8 6.4 Retail** 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 Ground Tran. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 Visitor Air Tran. 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 Other Travel* 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.8 3.7 3.3 Total Direct Earnings 16.2 16.3 18.1 20.6 24.3 25.8 27.2 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 384 392 418 429 457 462 480 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 160 164 178 187 210 206 214 Retail** 78 77 80 82 86 86 87 Ground Tran. 26 27 27 31 34 33 31 Visitor Air Tran. 31 27 28 29 30 26 23 Other Travel* 79 75 76 81 85 72 63 Total Direct Employment 758 762 806 839 902 885 898 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Billion) Local Tax Receipts 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 Visitor 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 Business or Employee 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 State Tax Receipts 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.3 3.7 Visitor 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.8 Business or Employee 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 Federal Tax Receipts 2.6 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement & reservation services, and convention & trade show organizers. **Retail includes gasoline. See table notes on page 7 for definition of taxes. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 15
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016p Total Direct Travel Spending ($Billion) Destination Spending 88.1 93.3 92.4 102.0 108.5 111.9 114.9 Other Travel* 9.0 8.9 7.9 8.5 9.9 10.6 11.4 Total Direct Spending 97.1 102.2 100.3 110.6 118.4 122.5 126.3 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Billion) Hotel, Motel 44.7 47.2 46.7 52.8 58.6 62.0 64.9 Private Home 13.4 14.3 14.7 15.6 15.9 15.9 15.9 Campground 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 Vacation Home 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 Day Travel 23.1 24.5 24.4 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.8 Destination Spending 88.1 93.3 92.4 102.0 108.5 111.9 114.9 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Billion) Accommodations 15.2 16.5 15.0 17.8 21.3 23.4 25.0 Food Service 21.0 22.6 23.9 25.5 27.3 28.7 30.3 Food Stores 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6 Local Tran. & Gas 15.7 17.7 16.4 19.4 18.5 17.2 16.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 14.1 14.3 14.3 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.0 Retail Sales 15.1 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.2 Visitor Air Tran. 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.7 Destination Spending 88.1 93.3 92.4 102.0 108.5 111.9 114.9 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Billion) Accom. & Food Serv. 14.1 15.7 15.1 16.8 19.1 20.9 22.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 7.1 7.9 7.5 8.3 9.2 9.8 10.3 Retail** 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 Ground Tran. 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 Visitor Air Tran. 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.5 Other Travel* 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.8 Total Direct Earnings 30.0 32.2 30.6 33.9 38.1 41.3 45.4 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 510 526 498 530 581 600 619 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 220 229 219 229 247 256 263 Retail** 89 88 82 84 88 89 90 Ground Tran. 32 34 31 33 36 37 38 Visitor Air Tran. 22 23 20 21 23 25 27 Other Travel* 59 58 47 47 50 53 58 Total Direct Employment 932 956 896 945 1,025 1,059 1,096 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Billion) Local Tax Receipts 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.9 Visitor 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.4 Business or Employee 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 State Tax Receipts 4.3 4.4 4.9 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.3 Visitor 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 Business or Employee 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 Federal Tax Receipts 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.1 6.0 6.4 6.8 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. California Travel Impacts, 2006-2015p *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement & reservation services, and convention & trade show organizers. **Retail includes gasoline. See table notes on page 7 for definition of taxes. PAGE 16 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
III. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE This section is concerned with the contribution of the California travel industry to state and local government finance. The first part of the report compares the travel industry to various other sectors of the state economy. The remainder provides an overview of state and local finance and the revenue contribution of the travel industry. INDUSTRY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND TAXES One way to consider the tax contributions of various sectors of the economy is to express the tax payments of businesses to government as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The bar chart and accompanying table show these tax payments (taxes on production and imports or TOPI) for major sectors of the California economy, including travel. TOPI include most of the taxes paid by the business firm to local, state and federal governments except for income taxes. This includes property taxes, licenses and fees and the sales and excise taxes collected from consumers. It is because of these later taxes that retail trade and travel have relatively high proportions of tax payments in relation to their gross domestic products. Production & Import Taxes as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product Selected California Industry Sectors, 2015 Calendar Year Information Construction Health Care Manufacturing Retail trade Travel All Industries Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Dean Runyan Associates. *TOPI denotes taxes on production and imports, less subsidies. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent of Gross Domestic Product GDP *TOPI Percent Information 204.4 3.9 1.9% Construction 92.0 1.0 1.1% Health care and social assist 153.6 2.7 1.7% Manufacturing 277.6 11.2 4.0% Retail trade 141.4 33.9 24.0% Travel 62.4 7.8 12.5% All Industries 2,481.3 149.7 6.0% DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 17
The remainder of this report will focus on the travel industry and the specific tax contributions made to state and local government in California. In addition to the taxes on production discussed in the previous section, the tax payments of travel industry employees derived from the income earned from travel industry businesses will be included. 1 The three primary sources of tax revenue generated by the travel industry are: Sales tax receipts generated by visitor spending. This includes local and state sales taxes, lodging taxes, and motor fuel taxes. Taxes paid by travel industry businesses attributable to travel generated business receipts (property and income taxes). Taxes paid by travel industry employees attributable to travel generated earnings (sales and property taxes). CALIFORNIA TAX STRUCTURE The pie chart below, adapted from the Bureau of the Census State and Local Government Finance and other data sources, shows the main categories of tax revenue in California. More than one-third of tax revenue is derived from the state income tax. Slightly less than one-third of all state and local tax revenue in the state is derived from sales or gross receipts taxes. About three-fourths of these sales and gross receipt taxes are collected by the state. Property taxes, paid primarily by homeowners and businesses to local governments, constitute one-fourth of all tax revenue. 2 California State and Local Government Tax Revenues 2015-16 Fiscal Year (Billions) Sales & Gross Receipts $74.0 31% Property $57.8 24% Income $88.9 38% License & Other $15.9 7% Sources: The 2015-16 fiscal year estimates of state and local tax revenues in California were prepared by Dean Runyan Associates from various sources, including the Bureau of the Census (State and Local Government Finance), the California State Board of Equalization, the California State Controller, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and a selection of annual financial reports for cities and counties. Sales and gross receipts taxes include the general sales tax and a variety of selective taxes, such as those on motor fuel and lodging. State tax receipts comprise more than 60 percent of all state and local tax receipts. 1 In effect, this means re-allocating some of the sales and excise payments made by other industries to the travel industry because the payments are ultimately made by consumers that earned their income in the travel industry. 2 Businesses pay 56 percent of all property taxes in California according the Tax Foundation (Fiscal Fact No. 342, November 21, 2012). PAGE 18 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
TRAVEL INDUSTRY TAX REVENUE The distribution of taxes generated by the travel industry for the 2015-16 fiscal year is shown in the following pie chart. The categories are the same as the preceding figure, with the exception that sales tax receipts are also distinguished between those that are generated by visitor spending and those that are generated by the spending of travel industry employees. California Travel Industry State and Local Government Tax Revenues 2015-16 Fiscal Year (Million) Property $1,180 12% PFC $160 2% Income $370 4% Employee Sales $1,370 13% Visitor Sales $7,010 69% Source: Dean Runyan Associates. Other travel-generated tax revenue includes the franchise tax and passenger facility charges for visitors who travel to California airports. Whereas slightly less than one-third of all state and local tax revenue in California was attributable to sales tax collections in the 2015-16 fiscal year, 82 percent of all travel industry tax revenue was attributable to sales tax receipts from visitors (69 percent) and the purchases of employees in the travel industry (13 percent). Travel industry state and local tax revenues are compared to total California state and local tax revenues in the following table. Because the travel industry generates a relatively high proportion of sales tax revenues, it is associated with proportionately more tax revenues than would be expected given the size of the industry, as measured by earnings or gross domestic product. Whereas the earnings and GDP of the travel industry are in the range of two and one-half percent of the state totals, travel industry tax revenues represent 4.3 percent of all state and local tax revenues in California. This is consistent with the initial analysis that compared different industries within the state. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 19
California State and Local Tax Revenues 2015-16 Fiscal Year ($Million) Travel Percent Total Generated Travel Sales & Gross Receipts $73,990 $8,380 11.3% Property $57,820 $1,180 2.0% License & Other $15,860 $160 1.0% Income $88,910 $370 0.4% Total $236,570 $10,090 4.3% Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Bureau of the Census, State and Local Government Finance. SUMMARY This analysis of the tax revenue generated by the California travel industry can be summarized as follows: The California travel industry contributes more tax revenue to state and local governments than would be expected based on the size of the industry. Whereas the gross domestic product and employee earnings represent about two and onehalf percent of the state economy, the travel industry generated 4.3 percent of tax revenue in the 2015 fiscal year. Over eighty percent of all travel-generated tax revenue is attributable to sales and gross receipts taxes. The travel industry share of the state total is more than 11 percent. Not only are most travel industry goods and services taxed, but a large share of these commodities (lodging and motor fuel) are taxed at rates that are greater than the general sales tax. A large share of these tax revenues are borne by visitors who reside in other states and countries. The revenue contributions of California s fifty-eight counties are detailed in the following two tables. (Note. The 2015 calendar taxable sales were the most current data available from the California State Board of Equalization at the time that this report was prepared.) PAGE 20 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
Local and State Travel-Generated Tax Revenue per Household 2016 Calendar Year Tax Revenue (Millions) Households Tax Revenue Local State Total (thousands) per Household Alameda $165.2 $165.2 $330.4 593.4 $560 Alpine $1.0 $1.0 $1.9 0.5 $4,220 Amador $4.0 $6.4 $10.4 14.4 $720 Butte $7.8 $16.1 $23.9 90.4 $260 Calaveras $4.7 $7.5 $12.3 18.8 $650 Colusa $1.0 $2.2 $3.2 7.1 $460 Contra Costa $48.5 $86.6 $135.1 404.7 $330 Del Norte $4.2 $5.7 $9.9 9.6 $1,040 El Dorado $27.1 $32.4 $59.6 72.0 $830 Fresno $41.9 $71.0 $113.0 304.1 $370 Glenn $2.1 $3.1 $5.2 9.8 $530 Humboldt $13.4 $19.2 $32.6 56.7 $580 Imperial $10.9 $18.3 $29.2 50.8 $570 Inyo $10.6 $8.6 $19.2 7.9 $2,440 Kern $31.9 $72.1 $104.0 267.7 $390 Kings $2.9 $8.9 $11.7 40.5 $290 Lake $3.7 $7.6 $11.3 26.3 $430 Lassen $1.7 $3.2 $5.0 8.9 $560 Los Angeles $1,172.3 $1,108.3 $2,280.7 3,344.3 $680 Madera $9.1 $14.0 $23.1 44.3 $520 Marin $37.4 $34.0 $71.4 106.4 $670 Mariposa $22.2 $15.0 $37.2 7.3 $5,070 Mendocino $16.4 $18.3 $34.7 34.9 $1,000 Merced $5.0 $13.1 $18.0 79.1 $230 Modoc $0.7 $1.2 $1.9 3.7 $520 Mono $32.9 $20.3 $53.3 5.7 $9,410 Monterey $114.8 $132.3 $247.1 131.6 $1,880 Napa $66.8 $55.3 $122.1 50.8 $2,400 Nevada $10.3 $15.2 $25.4 41.7 $610 Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Dean Runyan Associates. Households calculated from 2016 population and 2010 household size. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 21
Local and State Travel-Generated Tax Revenue per Household 2016 Calendar Year Tax Revenue (Millions) Households Tax Revenue Local State Total (thousands) per Household Orange $446.0 $473.9 $919.9 1,043.7 $880 Placer $31.7 $48.1 $79.7 144.1 $550 Plumas $3.1 $4.9 $8.0 8.4 $950 Riverside $221.7 $355.2 $576.9 744.1 $780 Sacramento $104.4 $152.0 $256.3 547.4 $470 San Benito $2.3 $5.0 $7.3 18.0 $400 San Bernardino $122.3 $225.9 $348.2 641.1 $540 San Diego $543.5 $653.7 $1,197.1 1,161.6 $1,030 San Francisco $723.2 $455.8 $1,179.0 373.8 $3,150 San Joaquin $18.3 $42.8 $61.1 229.5 $270 San Luis Obispo $61.7 $71.9 $133.6 106.9 $1,250 San Mateo $254.9 $197.4 $452.3 273.9 $1,650 Santa Barbara $90.0 $93.6 $183.7 149.4 $1,230 Santa Clara $210.9 $208.6 $419.6 649.1 $650 Santa Cruz $31.2 $38.7 $69.9 98.4 $710 Shasta $12.4 $20.5 $32.8 71.3 $460 Sierra $0.7 $0.7 $1.4 1.4 $1,050 Siskiyou $6.5 $9.0 $15.6 18.9 $820 Solano $18.0 $34.8 $52.8 150.7 $350 Sonoma $75.7 $82.7 $158.4 192.8 $820 Stanislaus $11.2 $30.0 $41.3 173.6 $240 Sutter $1.7 $4.8 $6.5 32.0 $200 Tehama $3.3 $6.5 $9.8 23.7 $420 Trinity $1.0 $2.0 $3.1 5.6 $540 Tulare $14.6 $23.7 $38.3 135.5 $280 Tuolumne $7.6 $9.9 $17.5 21.6 $810 Ventura $49.6 $85.0 $134.7 274.8 $490 Yolo $8.7 $17.0 $25.7 76.0 $340 Yuba $1.8 $5.0 $6.8 25.3 $270 California $4,948.4 $5,321.4 $10,269.8 13,225.8 $780 Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Dean Runyan Associates. Households calculated from 2016 population and 2010 household size. PAGE 22 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
Total and Visitor-Generated Taxable Sales 2015 Calendar Year (amounts in $Millions) Taxable Sales Total Visitor Percent Alameda 29,770 1,323 4.4% Alpine 46 9 18.5% Amador 454 52 11.3% Butte 3,109 125 4.0% Calaveras 348 51 14.8% Colusa 398 20 5.1% Contra Costa 15,670 692 4.4% Del Norte 240 46 19.3% El Dorado 2,059 253 12.3% Fresno 14,081 554 3.9% Glenn 365 25 6.9% Humboldt 1,985 158 7.9% Imperial 2,653 147 5.6% Inyo 357 69 19.4% Kern 14,322 573 4.0% Kings 1,698 73 4.3% Lake 574 68 11.8% Lassen 295 27 9.2% Los Angeles 151,034 8,616 5.7% Madera 1,521 108 7.1% Marin 5,046 273 5.4% Mariposa 197 123 62.6% Mendocino 1,378 145 10.5% Merced 2,965 92 3.1% Modoc 92 10 10.9% Mono 252 152 60.5% Monterey 6,406 1,156 18.1% Napa 3,306 486 14.7% Nevada 1,286 130 10.1% Sources: California State Board of Equalization and Dean Runyan Associates. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 23
Total and Visitor-Generated Taxable Sales 2015 Calendar Year (amounts in $Millions) Taxable Sales Total Visitor Percent Orange 61,358 3,939 6.4% Placer 8,675 406 4.7% Plumas 207 42 20.2% Riverside 32,911 3,283 10.0% Sacramento 22,043 1,310 5.9% San Benito 608 41 6.8% San Bernardino 35,339 1,953 5.5% San Diego 54,186 5,805 10.7% San Francisco 18,872 4,181 22.2% San Joaquin 10,467 330 3.2% San Luis Obispo 4,943 642 13.0% San Mateo 15,478 1,456 9.4% Santa Barbara 6,768 827 12.2% Santa Clara 41,232 1,810 4.4% Santa Cruz 3,547 325 9.2% Shasta 2,868 167 5.8% Sierra 19 6 31.2% Siskiyou 590 75 12.7% Solano 6,961 303 4.3% Sonoma 8,705 740 8.5% Stanislaus 8,172 228 2.8% Sutter 1,623 35 2.2% Tehama 780 55 7.0% Trinity 111 15 13.3% Tulare 6,275 171 2.7% Tuolumne 651 85 13.0% Ventura 13,784 736 5.3% Yolo 3,985 139 3.5% Yuba 498 38 7.6% California 633,565 44,701 7.1% Sources: California State Board of Equalization and Dean Runyan Associates. PAGE 24 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
IV. REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS SHASTA CASCADE NORTH COAST SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HIGH SIERRA CENTRAL VALLEY CENTRAL COAST DESERTS LOS ANGELES COUNTY ORANGE COUNTY INLAND EMPIRE SAN DIEGO COUNTY DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 25
2016p Region Direct Travel Impacts Spending ($Million) Earnings Employment Tax Revenue ($Million) Region Total Destination ($Million) (Thousand Jobs) Local State Total North Coast 1,092 1,057 405 14.5 38 51 89 Shasta Cascade 993 964 338 11.4 29 47 76 San Francisco Bay Area 34,487 29,944 12,983 256.9 1,615 1,326 2,942 Central Valley 6,621 6,148 2,064 74.8 172 355 527 Gold Country 4,596 3,909 1,382 40.9 133 195 328 High Sierra 2,984 2,925 915 30.6 121 113 234 Central Coast 8,300 7,985 3,008 80.5 318 388 706 Los Angeles County 26,855 22,400 10,986 203.7 1,172 1,108 2,281 Orange County 11,625 10,340 4,041 102.7 446 474 920 San Diego County 15,802 14,509 5,318 140.3 543 654 1,197 The Deserts 6,791 6,451 2,035 69.8 207 319 526 Inland Empire 6,141 5,753 1,950 69.8 154 291 445 California 126,288 * 45,424 1,096 4,948 5,321 10,270 *Sum of regional destination spending is less than state destination spending due to allocation of ground transportation. See appendix pages 139-140. Sonoma county is now included in the San Francisco Bay Area. In prior reports, Sonoma county was included in the North Coast. PAGE 26 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
Region Direct Travel Total Spending, 1994-2016p ($Million) Ave. Annual Chg. Region 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 15-16p 94-16p North Coast 603 635 672 765 803 839 958 1,004 932 982 1,011 1,054 1,092 3.7% 2.7% Shasta Cascade 560 597 614 713 768 818 925 959 904 965 972 986 993 0.7% 2.6% San Francisco Bay Area 13,529 15,624 17,759 22,399 18,880 20,409 23,551 25,202 25,861 28,898 31,999 33,348 34,487 3.4% 4.3% Central Valley 3,295 3,491 3,740 4,330 4,428 4,931 5,675 6,049 5,892 6,437 6,559 6,603 6,621 0.3% 3.2% Gold Country 2,065 2,233 2,437 3,034 3,126 3,381 3,870 3,957 3,785 4,111 4,338 4,536 4,596 1.3% 3.7% High Sierra 1,373 1,405 1,555 1,755 1,900 2,089 2,234 2,268 2,317 2,510 2,630 2,788 2,984 7.0% 3.6% Central Coast 3,767 4,243 4,690 5,445 5,415 5,767 6,522 6,712 6,540 7,291 7,816 8,071 8,300 2.8% 3.7% Los Angeles County 11,900 13,072 14,211 17,618 16,865 19,105 21,361 22,468 21,400 23,643 25,207 25,880 26,855 3.8% 3.8% Orange County 5,244 5,851 6,426 7,659 7,541 8,405 9,534 9,704 9,312 10,103 10,817 11,269 11,625 3.2% 3.7% San Diego County 5,888 6,925 8,190 9,824 9,449 10,632 11,988 12,733 12,501 13,697 14,800 15,400 15,802 2.6% 4.6% The Deserts 2,877 3,120 3,440 3,933 4,195 4,685 5,399 5,734 5,573 6,246 6,384 6,579 6,791 3.2% 4.0% Inland Empire 2,616 2,796 3,038 3,558 3,984 4,476 5,098 5,394 5,303 5,700 5,847 6,012 6,141 2.2% 4.0% California* 53.7 60.0 66.8 81.0 77.4 85.5 97.1 102.2 100.3 110.6 118.4 122.5 126.3 3.1% 4.0% *($Billions) Sonoma county is now included in the San Francisco Bay Area. In prior reports, Sonoma county was included in the North Coast. All current and previous estimates have been revised. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 27
Region Direct Travel-Generated Employment, 1994-2016p (thousands) Ave. Annual Chg. Region 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 15-16p 94-16p North Coast 13.8 13.7 13.3 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.1 12.9 13.0 14.0 14.1 14.5 2.2% 0.2% Shasta Cascade 11.0 11.0 10.4 11.4 12.5 12.2 12.9 12.5 11.0 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4-0.2% 0.2% San Francisco Bay Area 171.8 189.6 203.2 222.7 196.2 197.4 206.0 218.2 211.8 222.3 239.8 248.3 256.9 3.5% 1.8% Central Valley 59.5 59.0 59.9 60.4 64.0 63.9 66.6 67.9 63.7 67.3 72.3 73.4 74.8 1.9% 1.0% Gold Country 28.9 29.7 30.2 34.0 36.5 35.6 37.5 37.6 34.6 36.7 38.9 40.2 40.9 1.9% 1.6% High Sierra 24.4 23.3 23.6 24.2 26.8 27.4 26.7 25.5 24.5 26.2 28.5 29.5 30.6 3.7% 1.0% Central Coast 58.9 62.5 65.1 67.2 68.1 67.1 70.5 70.3 65.7 71.8 76.7 78.2 80.5 2.9% 1.4% Los Angeles County 151.3 158.9 162.6 179.3 170.3 174.7 176.3 178.7 161.2 169.5 187.8 195.3 203.7 4.3% 1.4% Orange County 73.0 76.8 80.1 86.6 87.5 90.0 94.1 94.2 86.1 88.5 95.2 99.2 102.7 3.5% 1.6% San Diego County 79.2 90.1 98.8 106.9 106.5 110.0 113.5 118.7 114.3 120.0 130.8 134.9 140.3 4.0% 2.6% The Deserts 45.5 46.5 47.4 47.4 51.4 52.4 56.2 58.4 54.7 59.5 65.1 67.2 69.8 3.8% 2.0% Inland Empire 44.9 45.3 44.4 47.9 51.3 53.3 56.7 59.2 56.0 58.9 64.9 67.7 69.8 3.1% 2.0% California 762.0 806.4 839.0 901.7 885.2 898.5 932.1 956.3 896.5 945.1 1,025.4 1,059.3 1,095.8 3.4% 1.7% Sonoma county is now included in the San Francisco Bay Area. In prior reports, Sonoma county was included in the North Coast. All current and previous estimates have been revised. PAGE 28 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES
North Coast Travel Impacts, 2000-2016p 2000 2005 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016p Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 741 865 892 941 973 1,018 1,057 Other Travel* 25 41 40 41 38 35 35 Total Direct Spending 765 906 932 982 1,011 1,054 1,092 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 334 380 378 408 429 467 500 Private Home 132 158 170 175 173 175 176 Campground 96 127 133 138 151 152 153 Vacation Home 57 65 70 71 71 72 74 Day Travel 121 135 141 148 150 152 154 Destination Spending 741 865 892 941 973 1,018 1,057 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 145 169 175 187 207 230 250 Food Service 194 229 250 259 270 289 307 Food Stores 48 59 62 64 69 72 72 Local Tran. & Gas 87 125 139 160 150 140 131 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 130 138 131 137 140 146 152 Retail Sales 135 131 127 129 130 134 137 Visitor Air Tran. 2 14 7 6 6 6 8 Destination Spending 741 865 892 941 973 1,018 1,057 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 147 184 199 211 240 261 285 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 46 54 56 61 67 65 66 Retail** 25 29 27 28 29 31 32 Ground Tran. 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 Visitor Air Tran. 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Other Travel* 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 Total Direct Earnings 233 284 297 315 354 376 405 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 7.8 8.3 7.5 7.6 8.2 8.3 8.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.2 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.4 Retail** 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Ground Tran. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total Direct Employment 13.8 14.6 12.9 13.0 14.0 14.1 14.5 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 22 25 28 29 32 35 38 Visitor 15 17 17 19 21 23 25 Business or Employee 7 8 11 10 11 12 13 State Tax Receipts 35 43 49 47 50 51 51 Visitor 27 33 38 36 38 38 37 Business or Employee 8 10 10 11 13 13 14 Total Local & State 57 68 77 76 82 86 89 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel and ground transportation impacts for travel to other California destinations, travel arrangement & reservation services, and convention & trade show organizers. **Retail includes gasoline. Local tax receipts include transient occupancy taxes, sales taxes and airport passenger facility charges paid by visitors, and the property tax payments and sales tax payments attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses. State tax receipts include sales tax payments and motor fuel tax payments of visitors, and the income tax payments and sales tax payments attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses. Sonoma county is no longer included in the North Coast region. All current and previous estimates have been revised. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 29