Markedssyn Kristian Tunaal Aksjestrateg September/oktober 2017
Sammendrag Sykliske indikatorer fortsette å holde seg høye det gjelder alle store økonomiske områder Forventningene er at oljeprisen og lange renter skal opp i løpet av 2017. Foreløpig er dette bak skjema både rente og oljepris Oljepris vil bety mye for sektorvekting på Oslo Børs bl.a. gjennom valutakurs 2
OSEBX: Prising 3
Global overview: Cyclical recovery strengthening Our global MacroScore, which tracks the cyclical development in the largest economies in the world in addition to Norway and Sweden, rose by 0.02 points to 0.40 in April. This is the highest level for the index since 2006. The level appear to be consistent with the recent improvement in global stocks sov. bond yields. The rebound is driven by a marked improvement in the corporate sector, which has been cyclically underperforming since late 2014. Note: A positive score is consistent with economic growth above trend, while a negative score is consistent with economic growth below trend. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: DNB Markets Global activity: DNB MacroScore Weighted Index 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Global activity: DNB MacroScore Weighted Index, by sector -2.0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: DNB Markets Households Corporates
Optimisme i næringslivet 65.0 ISM Business sentiment (manufacturing) 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 ISM USA HSBC PMI China Markit PMI Euroland 35.0 01/09/2014 01/09/2015 01/09/2016 01/09/2017 5
01/12/1981 01/08/1982 01/04/1983 01/12/1983 01/08/1984 01/04/1985 01/12/1985 01/08/1986 01/04/1987 01/12/1987 01/08/1988 01/04/1989 01/12/1989 01/08/1990 01/04/1991 01/12/1991 01/08/1992 01/04/1993 01/12/1993 01/08/1994 01/04/1995 01/12/1995 01/08/1996 01/04/1997 01/12/1997 01/08/1998 01/04/1999 01/12/1999 01/08/2000 01/04/2001 01/12/2001 01/08/2002 01/04/2003 01/12/2003 01/08/2004 01/04/2005 01/12/2005 01/08/2006 01/04/2007 01/12/2007 01/08/2008 01/04/2009 01/12/2009 01/08/2010 01/04/2011 01/12/2011 01/08/2012 01/04/2013 01/12/2013 01/08/2014 01/04/2015 01/12/2015 01/08/2016 01/04/2017 Rente vs. inflasjon Real 10 Year Yield Based on Core CPI US 10.0 Real 10 Year Yield Based on Core CPI US 8.0 30 per. Mov. Avg. (Real 10 Year Yield Based on Core CPI US) 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0 6
Quantative Tapering: ECB fortsetter, men trapper ned QE Bank of Japan fortsetter (omtrent som før) FED trekker inn likviditet antatt ca. ca. USD 1,500 Bn => fordelt over 3-5 år => gjenstand for løpende vurdering => ca. 11% av M2 / 10% av BNP => Lange obligasjoner sannsynligvis mest påvirket FED holder nærmere 30% av amerikansk statsgjeld.hva skjer når den kjøperen faller bort? 7
01/03/1992 01/02/1993 01/01/1994 01/12/1994 01/11/1995 01/10/1996 01/09/1997 01/08/1998 01/07/1999 01/06/2000 01/05/2001 01/04/2002 01/03/2003 01/02/2004 01/01/2005 01/12/2005 01/11/2006 01/10/2007 01/09/2008 01/08/2009 01/07/2010 01/06/2011 01/05/2012 01/04/2013 01/03/2014 01/02/2015 01/01/2016 01/12/2016 Viktige trender: Rente Fed Funds Rate (%) 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 S&P 500 vs. Fed Funds Rate FEDL01 Index SPX Index S&P 500 2,500 2,000 1,500 3.0 2.0 1.0 1,000 500 - - 8
01/12/1992 01/08/1993 01/04/1994 01/12/1994 01/08/1995 01/04/1996 01/12/1996 01/08/1997 01/04/1998 01/12/1998 01/08/1999 01/04/2000 01/12/2000 01/08/2001 01/04/2002 01/12/2002 01/08/2003 01/04/2004 01/12/2004 01/08/2005 01/04/2006 01/12/2006 01/08/2007 01/04/2008 01/12/2008 01/08/2009 01/04/2010 01/12/2010 01/08/2011 01/04/2012 01/12/2012 01/08/2013 01/04/2014 01/12/2014 01/08/2015 01/04/2016 01/12/2016 Verdensøkonomien: Vekst i volumer World Trade Volume Index 3.00 World Trade Volume Index 2.00 World Trade Volume Index (%m/m) 1.00 - -1.00-2.00-3.00 9
01/03/1997 01/03/1998 01/03/1999 01/03/2000 01/03/2001 01/03/2002 01/03/2003 01/03/2004 01/03/2005 01/03/2006 01/03/2007 01/03/2008 01/03/2009 01/03/2010 01/03/2011 01/03/2012 01/03/2013 01/03/2014 01/03/2015 01/03/2016 01/09/1997 01/09/1998 01/09/1999 01/09/2000 01/09/2001 01/09/2002 01/09/2003 01/09/2004 01/09/2005 01/09/2006 01/09/2007 01/09/2008 01/09/2009 01/09/2010 01/09/2011 01/09/2012 01/09/2013 01/09/2014 01/09/2015 01/09/2016 Olje: Etterspørsel Mn bbl/d 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 Global demand 14.0 % 12.0 % 10.0 % 8.0 % 6.0 % 4.0 % 2.0 % China's part world oil consumption 40.0 0.0 % 10
Olje: Tilbud 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 8,800 8,600 8,400 8,200 8,000 7,800 US Oil Production (Mn bbl/d) US Total Oil Prod US Shale Oil Prod 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 11
Net number of companies S&P 500: Revenue growth 400 S&P 500: Revenue growth y/y 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-100 -200 Source: factset
S&P 500: Margin growth 200 S&P 500: EBIT Margin y/y 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-50 -100 Source: factset
S&P 500: EBIT growth vs. Index return 8.0% S&P 500: Quarterly return 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017-2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 200 S&P 500: EBIT y/y 150 100 50 - Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017-50 -100 Source: factset
Anbefalinger: Norway Royal Salmon Veidekke BW LPG
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