PGCIL Power Grid Corporation of India Limited. STOCK IDEA Rating: Buy Power-Transmission & Distribution Date CMP (Rs.) Target (Rs.) Potential Upside May 14, 2015 140 181 29% BSE Sensex NSE Nifty 27,251 8,235 Scrip Code Bloomberg Reuters BSE Group BSE Code NSE Symbol PWGR IN PGRD.BO A 532898 POWERGRID Market Data Market Cap.(Rs. Cr) Equity Sh. Cap. (Rs Cr) 52 Wk High/Low Avg. Quarterly Volume Face Value (Rs.) 73,478 5,232 159/102 25,01,872 10 Shareholding Pattern st (As on 31 Mar 2015) FII DII Promoters Public & Others Total 27.55 7.94 57.9 6.61 100.00 Comparative Price Chart Robust CAPEX plan coupled with focus on execution to keep revenue on the growth path: The company incurred capital expenditure of over Rs. 22,000 crore in FY14, Rs. 17,700 in 9M FY15 and plans to invest similar amounts during each of the two years until FY17. The company's major cost is capital expenditure on setting up transmission lines, while there is hardly any operational cost. As a result it has an operating margin as high as 90%. Capitalization ratio for 9M FY15 stood at 98%, significantly higher than 80% in FY14 and 86% in FY13 reflecting management s focus on execution. On the back of robust CAPEX plans with timely execution, we expect PGCIL to register revenue growth of 17% & 18% in FY16 & FY17 respectively. Low risk business model: Tariffs are set by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) allow the company a complete pass-through of costs plus an assured return on equity of 15.5% on its completed projects with an additional 0.5% for timely completion of projects. The company has already signed power transmission agreement with majority of the projects slotted for the 12th Plan. PGCIL's low-risk business model and strong earnings visibility offer a defensive investment opportunity in current volatile environment. Quasi monopoly in industry even after opening entry for private players: Nearly 80% of the power transmission business is carried out and controlled by PGCIL, the sector was opened up to the private sector in 2011 to keep pace with the rapid expansion of generation capacity. Moreover opening up the sector for private players has not benefited them significantly because of provisions like compressed time schedule which vests discretion with the ministry to nominate PGCIL for executing projects if it is convinced that the bidding route could delay projects that are of critical nature, requiring time-bound execution. 160 150 140 1 120 110 100 May-14 Power Grid Corporation of India Limited. (PGCIL) is a Navratna company with around 70-80% market share in the transmission space with a near monopoly in inter-state transmission. The company is expected to directly benefit from the nation s ambitious plan to provide power to all of India s 1.2 billion people by 2022. With the government increasing its focus th th on under-invested T&D sector, huge investment is expected in 12 and 13 5 year plan. Around 1,07,440 & 2,57,000 Ckt Km of grid network addition is expected in 12th and 13th plan respectively. 46,100 and 52,800 MW of inter-regional transmission capacity addition is envisaged in 12th and 13th plan respectively. PGCIL has gone into top gear and exceeded CAPEX in FY15 (Rs. 17,700 in 9M FY15) while CAPEX-commissioning remained in tandem. On the back of ongoing and future CAPEX, we believe that PGCIL s medium-term earnings outlook remains robust (FY15-17E EPS CAGR: 21%). With a robust revenue model and clear visibility of earning, we believe that the company is the best play in a difficult sector where most of the companies are struggling. Aug-14 PGCIL Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Sensex Ravikant Sangepag Research Analyst ravikants@systematixshares.com Arun Gopalan VP Research & Investments arungopalan@systematixshares.com Being an early player in transmission, PGCIL enjoys an unassailable position as market leader with a 70-80% market share. Its Navratna PSU status gives it a clear advantage in raising cheaper finance. PGCIL is advantageously positioned to benefit from economies of scale in future bidding, given its strong position as the leading inter-state transmission player, together with its strong balance sheet. Valuation & Outlook: At the current price of Rs 140, the stock trades at 1.6x FY16E book value of Rs 86, which is significantly lower than historical average of 2.1x. It trades at a premium to Tata Power and NTPC, the other listed players in the power sector with an assured return model. The higher multiple is justified, given the better earning visibility, shorter gestation for project execution that results in lower locked-up capital, and the better growth prospects. We value the company at 2.1x its FY16E book value and recommend buy with a target of Rs. 181, an upside of 29% in 12 months. FY15E Sales (Rs. Cr) 15,2 16,753 EBITDA (Rs. Cr) 12,936 14,358 EBITDAM (%) 85 86 PAT (Rs. Cr) 4,497 4,722 PATM (%) 28 EPS (Rs.) 8.6 9.0 BVPS (Rs.) 65.9 74.9 P/E (x) 16.3 15.6 P/BV (x) 2.1 1.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 6.0 FY16E 19,601 16,838 86 5,875 11.2 86.1 12.5 1.6 5.1 FY17E 23,1 19,961 86 6,896 13.2 99.3 10.6 1.4 4.3 Particulars FY14
The Story in Charts Stores & Advances Vs CWIP Installed (Rs 000 Cr) Focus on execution visible as stores & advances are getting converted in to CWIP 40 35 25 20 15 10 5-2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 9MFY15 Const Stores & Advances CWIP Installed CAPEX Plans (Rs. 000 Cr.) Ongoing and future CAPEX plan impart revenue visibility 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 7 8 11 14 18 20 22 22 23 23 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15(E) FY16(E) FY17(E) Capitalization ratio (Capitalization/CAPEX) Increasing capitalization to boost revenue growth further. 100% 95% 98% 90% 85% 80% 75% 79% 86% 80% 70% 65% 60% 61% 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 9MFY15
India has always been a powerdeficient country with skewed investment allocation in favor of generation instead of equal split with T&D Industry Overview Although, the Indian power sector is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world and energy availability has increased by around 36% in the past 5 years, India has always been a powerdeficient country. The demand for power is huge in India and supply of power has not been able to meet its demand. Despite doubling of the installed generation capacity between FY13 and FY12, for most Indian states power deficit and blackouts are still common. One of the key reasons for this has been the skewed investment allocation in favor of generation instead of equal split with T&D. There is significant distance between power generation/ surplus centers like eastern & north-eastern regions and power consumption/deficit centers like southern region. The northern grid failure followed by a cascade impact and subsequent collapse of the Eastern and North Eastern power grids in 2012 was one of the biggest ever power failure in Indian history. In a vehement manner, it has established the need to earmark a greater investment towards T&D CAPEX and to create more robust transmission infrastructure backbone. Power distribution in India needs sweeping reforms if it is to bring back the country to a high growth trajectory and meet its goal of expanding access to electricity to all by 2019. Today, India s annual per capita power sector consumption at around 800 kwh is among the lowest levels in the world. In the 12th five year plan, the government has made an effort to correct this anomaly by increasing the share of T&D sector in the planned capital expenditure. A strong T&D system is critical for optimal utilization of resources through effective evacuation from surplus regions and dispensation in the deficit regions. In the 12th five year plan, the government has made an effort to correct this anomaly by increasing the share of T&D sector in the planned capital expenditure for the sector. Significant CAPEX allocation has been earmarked to create evacuation infrastructure for upcoming Independent Power Producer (IPP) generation facilities, to connect renewable energy facilities and to strengthen and modernize transmission infrastructure. The announcement of formation of Infrastructure Investment Trust for financing the infrastructure projects by Finance Minister in the budget will provide the opportunities to business to grow. The promotion of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model is an effective tool to bring private-sector investments in the Infrastructure Sector. Transmission Capacity Addition (000 Ckt Km) Around 1,07,440 & 2,57,000 Ckt Km of grid network addition is expected in 12 th and 13 th plan respectively. 700 600 500 400 0 200 100 0 9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan (E) 13th Plan (E) Over 46,100 and 52,800 MW of inter-regional transmission capacity addition is expected in 12 th and 13 th plan respectively. Inter-Regional Cumulative Transmission Capacity (000 MW) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan
PGCIL is the largest power transmission utility in the country The Company owns and operates 1,13,587 Ckt Km of transmission line with capacity of about 2,19,579 MVA Company Background Power Grid Corporation of India Limited, the 'Central Transmison Utility (CTU)' of the country and a 'Navratna' Company operating under Ministry of Power, Founded in 1981, the company is engaged in power transmission business with the responsibility for planning, implementation, operation and maintenance of inter-state transmission system and operation of National & Regional Power Grids. PGCIL along with its subsidiaries has been implementing various transmission projects for generation capacity addition under central sector, Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs), Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and other projects. As on December 31, 2014, the Company owns & operates transmission network of about 1,13,587 Ckt Km of transmission lines and 188 nos. of EHVAC & HVDC substations with transformation capacity of about 2,19,579 MVA. The Company continues to wheel about 50% of total power generated in the Country. The company has established nationwide synchronous power grid, interconnecting five regional grids. As on December 31, 2014, National Grid capacity with inter-regional power transfer stands at 46,450 MW. The inter-regional power transfer capacity is envisaged to be augmented to about 72,250MW by the end of the XII Plan (2016-17). High Capacity Power Transmission Corridors (HCPTCs) offer additional potential opportunity of Rs. 66,000 Cr. Eleven High Capacity Power Transmission Corridors (HCPTCs) have been finalized to meet bulk power evacuation requirement of various Independent Power Producers (IPPs) mainly coming up in resource rich and coastal States such as Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh at an estimated cost of about Rs. 75,000 Crore (PGCIL's scope: about Rs. 66,000 Cr). Implementation of these corridors has been taken up in a phased manner matching with generation projects. An investment of about Rs. 1,00,000 Crore has been envisaged by the Company for further development of inter-state transmission systems during XII Plan which includes development of High Capacity Power Transmission Corridors (HCPTCs) apart from inter-regional links for enhancement of National Grid capacity & various system strengthening schemes. This will be used for augmenting the transmission system by about 40,000 ckm of transmission lines and about 1,00,000 MVA of transformation capacity. Diversification in consulting and telecom business to strengthen business model in longer term As a leader in the T&D industry, PGCIL is driving reforms on behalf of Government of India Huge potential lies with Smart Grid Technology as 100 planned smart cities are expected to come up in near future To shore up its revenue and create value for its stakeholders, PGCIL diversified into telecom business and is managing a pan-india Broad Band Telecom Network of about,000 kms providing back-bone connectivity to all metros, major cities & towns including remote areas of J&K & Northeastern States etc. The Company is one of the three agencies selected by Govt. of India for providing connectivity for the prestigious 'National Knowledge Network' project which aims to connect all knowledge centers across the country such as IITs, IISc, etc. on high speed connectivity. POWERGRID has been nominated as one of the implementing agencies for this project and has been entrusted with the task of development and maintenance of the NOFN network in five states, namely Andhra Pradesh (Partial), Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha. In addition, POWERGRID is offering consultancy services to various National clients & International clients, including many South Asian, African, and Middle East countries. PGCIL is playing a significant role in carrying forward the distribution reforms through undertaking RGGVY works on behalf of the Govt. of India in various parts of the country. The company has emerged as a strong player in South Asia and is playing an active role in formation of a strong SAARC grid for effective utilization of resources for mutual benefits. Presently, various electrical interconnections exist between India & Bhutan, India & Nepal and India & Bangladesh. Further, the interconnection between India & Bhutan and India & Nepal are being strengthened for substantial exchange of power across the borders. PGCIL has taken leadership initiative for development of Smart Grid technology in the country integrating all segments in power supply chain. In distribution system. PGCIL has established Smart Grid Control Centre at Puducherry with provision of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) solution and other functionalities like Outage Management System, Demand Response, Microgrid etc. are being taken up in a progressive manner. A number of such Smart Cities have been planned for other cities in the country. In Smart transmission, PGCIL has implemented Synchrophasor Technology in its Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS) Pilot Project through installation of PMUs (Phasor Measurement Units) in all 5 Regions, which facilitates better visualization and situational awareness of the grid events such as grid robustness, oscillations, angle/ voltage instability, system margin etc. as well as decision support tools. POWERGRID also acts as 'nodal point' in prestigious "India Smart Grid Task Force" Secretariat for Government's activities related to Smart Grid.
Key Risks: Delay in project execution could result in higher locked-up capital that could impact return ratios adversely. Increase in tariff-based competitive bidding (TBCB) may lead private players to bid aggressively resulting pressure on execution that if not done in timely manner may adversely impact return ratios. Delays in future transmission capacity addition may adversely impact the growth. Although current CERC regulations are applicable till FY19, the company may not be able to recover its fixed costs. Adverse changes in regulatory policy thereafter could negatively impact overall business model. Relative Valuations : Peer Companies TTM CMP M-Cap Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDAM PATM P/E P/B ROE (Rs.) (Rs. Cr.) (Rs. Cr.) (Rs. Cr.) (Rs. Cr.) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) PGCIL 140.4 73,425 15,2 12,936 4,497 84.9 29.5 16.3 2.1 12.8 NTPC 138.0 113,829 74,970 15,979 10,440 21.3 13.9 10.9 1.2 11.8 Tata Power 73.1 19,771 34,811 6,800 110 19.5 0.3 180.4 1.6 0.9 PTC 66.7 1,973 13,574 252 216 1.9 1.6 9.2 0.7 8.4
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE PROFIT & LOSS (Rs Cr) CASH FLOW (Rs Cr) Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Revenue 12,758 15,2 16,753 19,601 23,1 Cash from operating act. 10,480 13,057 8,681 14,075 17,005 Transmission expenses 872 1,113 1,173 1,372 1,573 Cash from investing act. 24,508 29,451 7,400 23,083 25,210 Employee cost 886 942 988 1,156 1,318 Cash from financing act. 13,353 19,149 172 12,078 11,335 Other operating expenses 39 240 235 235 278 Net Change in Cash (675) 2,756 1,453 3,070 3,1 EBITDA 10,961 12,936 14,358 16,838 19,961 Depreciation 3,352 3,996 4,968 5,818 7,158 RATIO ANALYSIS Other Income 571 491 529 627 740 Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E EBIT 8,180 9,431 9,919 11,646 13,543 General Interest Expenses 2,535 3,168 3,965 4,256 4,814 EPS 9.1 8.6 9.0 11.2 13.2 Profit Before Tax 5,645 6,264 5,954 7,390 8,7 BVPS 56.7 65.9 74.9 86.1 99.3 Tax 1,410 1,766 1,232 1,515 1,833 ROE 17.0% 14.8% 12.8% 13.9% 14.2% PAT 4,235 4,497 4,722 5,875 6,896 WC as % of Sales -33.8% -45.9% -48.7% -42.6% -42.4% Growth BALANCE SHEET (Rs Cr) Revenue 25.5% 19.4% 10.0% 17.0% 18.0% Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E EBITDA 29.1% 18.0% 11.0% 17.3% 18.5% Share Capital 4,6 5,232 5,232 5,232 5,232 PAT.1% 6.2% 5.0% 24.4% 17.4% Reserves & Surplus 21,610 29,228 33,950 39,825 46,721 Profitability Total Shareholder funds 26,239 34,460 39,181 45,056 51,953 EBITDA Margin 85.9% 84.9% 85.7% 85.9% 86.3% Non Current Liabilities EBIT Margin 64.1% 61.9% 59.2% 59.4% 58.6% Longterm Borrowings 63,076 76,790 77,000 88,000 98,000 PAT Margin 33.2% 29.5% 28.2%.0% 29.8% Deferred Tax Liabilities 1,959 2,443 2,443 2,443 2,443 Stability Other LT Liabilities 5,150 6,379 6,341 7,419 8,755 Debt/Equity 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 Current Liabilities Current Ratio 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 Trade Payables 3,031 5,109 4,477 5,238 6,181 Interest Coverage 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.8 Other Current Liabilities 5,798 7,061 7,072 8,274 9,764 ST Borrowings 5,112 6,380 6,320 7,395 8,726 ST Provisions 769 968 955 1,118 1,319 TOTAL LIABILITIES 111,134 139,589 143,790 164,943 187,139 Non Current Assets Net Block 61,401 73,154 90,186 107,368 123,210 CWIP 34,824 49,477 34,876 34,959 37,169 NC Investments 1,148 999 999 999 999 Current Assets Inventories 552 713 695 814 960 Sundry Debtors 1,434 1,578 1,657 1,939 2,288 Cash and Bank 1,662 4,418 5,871 8,941 12,071 ST Loans and Advances 2,268 2,208 2,462 2,880 3,399 TOTAL ASSETS 111,134 139,589 143,790 164,943 187,139
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No.: BSE: INB/F011132736 Member Code: 182 NSE: INB/F/E2311327 Member Code : 11327 MCX-SX: INB/F261132733 Member Code: 17560 PMS SEBI Reg No. : INP000002692 Depository Participant: IN-DP-CDSL-246-2004 AMFI: ARN No. 64917 Corporate Office Address: A 603-606, The Capital, BKC, Bandra (E), Mumbai, India - 400051