ATTRAZIONE E LOCALIZZAZIONE DI INVESTIMENTI INTERNAZIONALI: QUALI TENDENZE NEL MONDO? STRATEGIE PER CRESCERE: LA COMPETIZIONE IN EUROPA PER ATTRARRE INVESTIMENTI ESTERI E LE PRIORITÀ PER UNA POLITICA DI ATTRAZIONE INTERNAZIONALE IN TRENTINO andrea.goldstein@oecd.org
FDI inflows since 1997 US$ billion Source: OECD
FDI inflows up across all major economic groupings 51% Source: UNCTAD
Letterbox-company Economics 4
FDI outflows since 1997 US$ billion Source: OECD
Shares in global FDI outflows, by group of economies, 2000 2011 Source: UNCTAD
M&A vs. greenfield FDI since 2007 (Billions of dollars) Source: UNCTAD
Sectoral distribution of FDI projects (Billions of dollars and per cent) Source: UNCTAD
Perception of the global investment climate, 2012 2014 (Percentage of WIPS survey responses) Source: UNCTAD
Projections for 2013 and 2014 FDI to level off at $1.6 trillion in 2012, rising to $1.8 trillion in 2013 and $1.9 trillion in 2014, barring any macroeconomic shocks Source: UNCTAD
Private equity firms
Shifting Wealth Emerging markets the place to be Favorable costs; rising productivity Generally young populations Slowly shifting to reliance on domestic demand Competitive multinational companies Rich countries Slower growth Battered financial sectors Fiscal austerity Poor demographics 13
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The rise of emerging multinationals 15
Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) SWFs as FDI actors roughly $5 trillion in assets under management cumulative FDI of only $125 billion to date of which 75% in industrial countries Significant future potential long-term and strategically oriented investment outlook large scale holdings well placed to invest in productive activities and infrastructure
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Major obstacles for investors (% of respondents) Source: Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency 18
A medium-term attractiveness strategy Improve the fundamentals for addressing old challenges: Economic and political stability Physical and institutional infrastructure Business environment and investment climate Broaden the views for benefiting from FDI: Embed FDI policy in the national/regional development strategy Emphasize quantity and quality, economic and social impacts Adopt sound strategies for grasping new opportunities: Industrial relocation due to rising production costs elsewhere Targeting: key industries lead firms piloting projects 19
Competitiveness Analysis and Investment Policy SECTOR/INDUSTRY ANALYSIS DETERMINANTS OF COMPETITIVENESS APPROPRIATE ROLE FOR GOVERNMENT Industry trends Market trends Price trends Competition and ownership policy Links to national/global supply chains Technological trends Global policy trends (WTO, EU-US FTA) Price Factors Factor costs Input costs Finance availability/cost Transaction costs Productivity Factors o Skills o Innovation o Management o Infrastructure Taxes and customs duties Investment law Non-tariff barriers Utilities service Regulatory barriers Market structure Competition policy Factor market rigidities Price controls/subsidies Product quality standards Risk 20
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Actions information to foreign firms to help them: Incorporate a business in the U.S. Understand basic U.S. tax and legal concepts Learn about incentives available to businesses in the U.S. Connect with U.S. state, city, or regional economic development offices to learn about investment opportunities Apply for a business-related visa 22
Ombudsman functions 23
Pro-active outreach 24