5/2/25 Finance and Administration Roundtable The Washington Area Economy: Repositioning for Renewed Growth Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor George Mason University May 2, 25 The Washington Metropolitan Area from The International Space Station, January 2, 23 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/2/25 The District of Columbia and Washington Metropolitan Area Economies in 244 (population and employment in millions, GSP/GRP in billions of 29 $s) Metric 24 % 244 % Change Population: DC.66.76 5. Metro Area 5.988. 7.75 9.8 28.8 Employment: DC.752.965 28.4 Metro Area 3.93 24.3 4.33 22.4 39.4 GSP/GRP: DC $6. $9.6 8.6 Metro Area $444.5 23.8 $,28. 8.6 3.2 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
5/2/25 The First 2 Years Population and Federal Employment Growth In the Washington Area, 8-2 Years DC Metro Area Federal Employees 8 8,44 63,653* 3** 86 75,8 4,25* 2,99** 87 3,7 23,8* 6,222** 9 278,78 378,65* 2,834** 93 486,869 672,98 68,5** 94 663,9 967,985 33,645** 95 792,234,452,349 24,77** 992 597,35 4,27,8 355,3 2 572,552 4,843,28 326,23 2 67, 5,64,46 38,2 *DC, Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George s, **in DC only Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
5/2/25 Thousands 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 68 Population Growth by Decade Washington MSA 9-2 3 2 35 527 6 84 274 745 7 795 s s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s 7s 8s 9s s Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis s 3 25 Population in the Washington MSA By Sub-State Area, 9-2 Northern VA 2 5 Suburban MD 5 D.C. Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5/2/25 Growth in Jobs, 98-2 s 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 99 District of Columbia 394 Suburban yland 83 Northern Virginia Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 Changing Job Patterns in the Washington Metro Area, 95 2 (Percent Share of Total) 4 3 2 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
5/2/25 $ Billions 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Federal Spending By Type, Washington Metro Area, 984-2 Wages & Salaries Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report Share of Washington Area Economy 97-2 5% 45% Northern Virginia 4% 35% Suburban MD 3% 25% D.C. 2% 5% % GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
5/2/25 2 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 2. % Other Federal.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries.% Procurement 9.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis From the Recession to the Federal Sequester and Shutdown GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
5/2/25 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 28-Feb 2 Feb 2-25 -49-34 -24-23 - -2-8 - -7-5 (s) Total -8 Total 224-8 -6-4 -2 2 4 6 8 4 3 3 8 28 43 5 62 The GRP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Aug 28-ch 25 (in 24 $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 8,3 - $29,44,64, + 223,7 + $22,75,, 2 + 42,4 - $6,868,964, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product $6,2 per job contribution to GRP 2 $99,3 per job contribution to GRP GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
5/2/25 Summary of Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 2-23 Federal Procurement Outlays declined $3.3 billion or 6.% between FY 2 and FY 23. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 2, losing 2,8 jobs or 5.6%. Federal payroll declined by $2.4 billion or 5.7% between FY 2 and FY 24 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. 25 2 5 5-5 - -5-2 Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 3 29 2 2 22 23 24 Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun 28 25 22-5 Total: 36.2 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
5/2/25 25 2 5 5-5 - -5-2 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 3 29 2 2 22 23 24 Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun 28 25 22-5 Total: 79.2 (s) 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.. - Average Wage and Job Change Washington Metro Area 2/2-/24 Job Change (left axis) $94.2 44. Professional & Business Services 48.6 $5.4 Education & Health Services 23 Wage (right axis) 58. $24. Leisure & Hospitality (s of 23 $s $ $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $ $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/2/25 (s of 23 $s) 72. Average Wages in the Washington Metro Area, 2-23 7. 68. 66. 64. 63. 63. 63.9 65.5 66.2 67. 68.2 67.8 69.5 7.6 69.8 69.3 68.3 62. 6. 58. 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s of 23 $s) 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 Average Wage, Washington Metro Area 99 99 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 Region D.C. Virginia yland Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/2/25 The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Jurisdiction Median HH Income 23* Change from 29* District (DC) $67,575 $2,99 Frederick Cty 84,38 - $5,856 Montgomery Cty 98,326 - $4,552 Prince George s Cty 72,52 - $4,6 Arlington County 2,5 - $,675 Fairfax County,79 - $249 Loudoun County 6,768 - $7,283 Prince Wm County 95,268 - $2,234 Alexandria City 86,775 $2,985 Total Metro Area $9,49 - $2,287 Source: U.S. Census, ACS -Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 23 dollars 6.% 5.% 4.% 5 Largest Metro Area Job kets GRP Percent Change: 22 23 Washington -.8% 3.% 2.%.%.% -.% -2.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
5/2/25 (s) 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% % % % 5 Largest Job kets Job Change: 23 24 Washington +.6% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.%.5%.%.5%.% 5 Largest Job kets Job Change: 24 25 Washington +.6% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
5/2/25 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 22-25 Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year 8 2 2 22 23 24 28 25 22 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 24 25 Washington MSA -2-2 - 2 (s) Total = 5,7 3 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. 5 6 3 3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5/2/25 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 25 Washington MSA - 2 (s) Total = 7,5 2 4 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. 7 (s) Annual Data 6 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 -4 28 25 22 Annual Job Change District of Columbia, 22-25 Annual Month over Year 2 2 22 23 24 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
5/2/25 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 24 25 District of Columbia - 2 (s) Total,6 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. 6 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 25 District of Columbia - (s) Total 7 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
5/2/25 (s) Annual Data 6 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 -4 28 25 22 Annual Job Change Suburban yland, 22-25 Annual Month over Year 2 2 22 23 24 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 24 25 Suburban yland - - (s) Total 9,2 2 3 4 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. 5 6 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
5/2/25 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 25 Suburban yland (s) Total, 2 2 3 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. (s) Annual Data 6 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 28 25 22 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 22-25 Annual Month over Year 2 2 22 23 24 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
5/2/25 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 24 25 Northern Virginia -2 - - 2 (s) Total 6,2 3 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. 6 6 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 25 Northern Virginia - - (s) Total 6,3 3 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
5/2/25 2 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 28-25 8 6 4 2 7.3 DC 5.5 U.S. 4.6 SMD 4.7 MSA 4. - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) 7. % 6. 5. 4. 3. 2... 5 Largest Job kets Ranked by Unemployment Rate ch 25 US 5.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
5/2/25 Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: 24-29 Washington Metropolitan Area and U.S. Economic Growth 22-29 (annual percent real change) Year U.S. WMSA 23 2.2 -.8 24 2.4.7 25 2.8.4 26 2.7.9 27 2.7 2.4 28 2.4 2.9 29 2.7 3.2 Sources: IHS Economics, Inc. April 25 ; GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
5/2/25 % 4 2-2 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 27 25 29 (Annual % Change) Washington U.S. -4 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 25 % 6 5 4 3 2 - -2 Economic Outlook (GRP), 27-29 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) SM NV MSA DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 25 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
5/2/25 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) 22 23 24* 25 26 27 28 29 D.C. 9.2 3. 6.5 7.9 9.. 2.7.7 Sub. MD 4. 6.. 2.5 7. 2. 6.9 5.8 No. VA 26.4 8.9.3 5.6 22.8 26.7 9. 7.9 REGION 39.6 28. 8.9 36. 48.9 58. 48.6 45.4 Average Annual Change 99-2 = 35,98 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 25) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Principal Sources of Job and GRP Growth in the Washington Area, 24-29 (in thousands) Growth Job % of Total Average Value Sectors Change Job Change Added per Job* Prof. & Bus. Ser. 4.4 48.3 $57,969 Construction 48.8 2.5 $,992 Education/Health 28.7 2. $72,62 Hospitality Services 27..4 $5, State and Local 2.2 8.5 $8,736 Sub-Total 239.2.8 $9,749 Overall Total 236.9. $54,3 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 24$s GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
5/2/25 Job and GRP Gains and Losses for the Washington Area s Other Sectors, 24-29 (in thousands) Job % of Total Average Value Change Job Change Added per Job* Federal Gov t - 22.3-9.4 $85,84 Retail Trade.5.2 $64,478 Other Services 2.6. $86,5 Financial Services -.. $62,922 Information Services 2..9 $4,37 Manufacturing.. $249,934 Transportation 8.8 3.7 $23,5 Wholesale Trade 6.2 2.6 $25,783 Sub-Totals - 2.3 -.9 $97,8 Overall Total 236.9. $54,3 Sources: IHS Economics, Inc.; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 24 $s 29 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 7.6% Other Federal 8.4% Fed Wages & Salaries 7.3% Total Federal 28.8% Procurement 3.% Local Serving Activities 38.2% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
5/2/25 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25