October 28, 2016 Economic Overview Yellowstone
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE...3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS...5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE...5 WAGE TRENDS...6 COST OF LIVING INDEX...6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT...7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT...9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS... 12 EDUCATION LEVELS... 12 FAQ... 13 2
Demographic Profile In 2015, the population in Yellowstone was 157,048. Between 2005 and 2015, the region s population grew at an annual average rate of 1.3%. The region has a civilian labor force of 81,785 with a participation rate of 68.3%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in Yellowstone, 30.1% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 30.9% in the nation. The median household income in Yellowstone is $51,743 and the median house value is $186,500. Summary 1 Percent Value Yellowstone Yellowstone Demographics Population 2 157,048 1,032,949 321,418,820 Population Annual Average Growth 2 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1,943 9,285 2,590,222 Median Age 3 38.3 39.8 37.2 Under 18 Years 23.7% 22.6% 24.0% 35,040 223,563 74,181,467 18 to 24 Years 9.0% 9.6% 9.9% 13,249 94,611 30,672,088 25 to 34 Years 13.6% 12.4% 13.3% 20,067 122,864 41,063,948 35 to 44 Years 12.0% 11.4% 13.3% 17,789 112,945 41,070,606 45 to 54 Years 15.0% 15.1% 14.6% 22,223 149,832 45,006,716 55 to 64 Years 12.7% 14.0% 11.8% 18,736 138,858 36,482,729 65 to 74 Years 7.3% 8.2% 7.0% 10,742 80,742 21,713,429 75 Years, and Over 6.8% 6.7% 6.0% 10,126 66,000 18,554,555 Race: White 90.7% 89.4% 72.4% 134,228 884,961 223,553,265 Race: Black or African American 0.6% 0.4% 12.6% 935 4,027 38,929,319 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 4.0% 6.3% 0.9% 5,881 62,555 2,932,248 Race: Asian 0.6% 0.6% 4.8% 939 6,253 14,674,252 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 114 668 540,013 Race: Some Other Race 1.2% 0.6% 6.2% 1,763 5,975 19,107,368 Race: Two or More Races 2.8% 2.5% 2.9% 4,112 24,976 9,009,073 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 4.7% 2.9% 16.3% 6,955 28,565 50,477,594 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 4 68.3% 63.9% 63.5% 81,785 516,403 157,940,014 Armed Forces Labor Force 4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 241 3,411 1,025,497 Veterans, Age 18-64 4 7.9% 8.1% 5.8% 7,385 50,004 11,371,344 Median Household Income 3,4 $51,743 $46,766 $53,482 Per Capita Income 3,4 $28,918 $25,977 $28,555 Poverty Level (of all people) 4 12.5% 15.3% 15.6% 18,496 150,096 47,755,606 Households Receiving Food Stamps 4 10.8% 10.8% 13.0% 6,601 43,869 15,089,358 3
Summary 1 Percent Value Yellowstone Yellowstone Mean Commute Time (minutes) 4 19.2 18.3 25.7 Commute via Public Transportation 4 1.0% 0.8% 5.1% 742 4,004 7,157,671 Union Membership 5 13.2% 13.0% 11.1% Educational Attainment, Age 25-64 No High School Diploma 4 6.1% 6.1% 12.0% 4,900 31,983 19,939,890 High School Graduate 4 29.4% 28.2% 26.5% 23,704 148,454 44,000,387 Some College, No Degree 4 26.5% 26.1% 21.9% 21,399 137,010 36,270,359 Associate's Degree 4 7.9% 9.4% 8.7% 6,397 49,196 14,487,486 Bachelor's Degree 4 21.8% 21.3% 19.7% 17,613 111,740 32,646,533 Postgraduate Degree 4 8.2% 9.0% 11.2% 6,651 47,393 18,533,513 Housing Housing Units 4 65,103 486,782 132,741,033 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 3,4 $186,500 $187,600 $175,700 Homeowner Vacancy 4 0.7% 2.0% 2.1% 312 5,764 1,591,421 Rental Vacancy 4 5.3% 6.3% 6.9% 1,104 9,035 3,105,361 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 4 31.5% 32.3% 35.6% 19,348 131,596 41,423,632 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 4 5.3% 5.2% 9.1% 3,245 21,179 10,594,153 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 4 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1,895 12,596 4,443,768 Disconnected Youth 4,6 3.2% 3.8% 3.3% 232 1,988 572,277 Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 4 31.1% 29.8% 34.7% 10,516 62,944 24,388,185 Disabled, Age 18-64 4 10.6% 10.9% 10.2% 9,772 67,110 19,703,061 Disabled, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 4 48.1% 47.5% 41.2% 4,697 31,866 8,119,295 Foreign Born 4 1.8% 2.0% 13.1% 2,763 20,520 41,056,885 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 4 1.0% 0.9% 8.6% 1,459 8,224 25,305,202 Source: JobsEQ 1, Census 2010, unless noted otherwise 2, Census 2015, annual average growth rate since 2005 3, Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 4, ACS 2010-2014 5, 2014; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 6, Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 4
Employment Trends As of 2016Q2, total employment for Yellowstone was 86,188 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2016Q2, employment increased 1.2% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2015Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q2. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Yellowstone was 3.7% as of August 2016. The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 5.0%. One year earlier, in August 2015, the unemployment rate in Yellowstone was 3.2%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through August 2016. 5
Wage Trends The average worker in Yellowstone earned annual wages of $45,739 as of 2016Q2. Average annual wages per worker increased 4.2% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $53,084 in the nation as of 2016Q2. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2015Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q2. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 2.9% lower in Yellowstone than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power Yellowstone $45,868 97.1 $47,246 $40,935 101.6 $40,306 $54,152 100.0 $54,152 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2016Q2 The Cost of Living Index is developed by Chmura Economics & Analytics and is updated quarterly. 6
Industry Snapshot The largest sector in Yellowstone is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 13,412 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Retail Trade (11,582 workers) and Accommodation and Food Services (9,382). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Wholesale Trade (LQ = 1.64), Construction (1.41), and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (1.37). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2015Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q2. Sectors in Yellowstone with the highest average wages per worker are Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($111,111), Utilities ($95,827), and Management of Companies and Enterprises ($74,354). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Accommodation and Food Services (+1,423 jobs), Construction (+1,239), and Health Care and Social Assistance (+771). Over the next 10 years, employment in Yellowstone is projected to expand by 8,750 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +1.8% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+2,651 jobs), Retail Trade (+1,116), and Construction (+1,104). 7
Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2016q2 Change over the Last 5 Average Annual % Change in Employment 2011q2-2016q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl Yellowsto ne Approx Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11 21 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 919 $41,616 0.73 2 0.1% 1.4% 1.0% 325 11 0.1% 539 $111,111 1.37 155 7.0% -0.8% -0.4% 138 73 1.3% 22 Utilities 291 $95,827 0.62-60 -3.6% 0.4% 0.2% 73-9 -0.3% 23 Construction 6,610 $55,535 1.41 1,239 4.2% 2.1% 2.7% 1,391 1,104 1.6% 31 Manufacturing 3,688 $65,381 0.52 483 2.8% 3.1% 1.1% 850-45 -0.1% 42 Wholesale Trade 5,625 $57,800 1.64 467 1.7% 2.5% 1.4% 1,280 426 0.7% 44 Retail Trade 11,582 $30,611 1.24 758 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 3,736 1,116 0.9% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 4,324 $50,660 1.22 349 1.7% 1.9% 2.4% 1,133 85 0.2% 51 Information 1,336 $48,418 0.77-38 -0.6% -2.5% 0.6% 304-149 -1.2% 52 Finance and Insurance 2,982 $70,838 0.87-58 -0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 730 269 0.9% 53 54 55 56 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,385 $45,235 0.95 136 2.1% 1.5% 1.7% 316 79 0.6% 5,221 $64,327 0.93 553 2.3% 1.8% 2.5% 1,146 766 1.4% 594 $74,354 0.47 124 4.8% 2.9% 3.5% 130 41 0.7% 3,510 $30,278 0.63-1,653-7.4% -2.0% 2.9% 829 442 1.2% 61 Educational Services 4,761 $40,286 0.67 14 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1,038 473 1.0% 62 71 72 81 Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 13,412 $55,691 1.10 771 1.2% 1.7% 2.3% 2,793 2,651 1.8% 2,151 $18,685 1.27 163 1.6% 1.3% 2.1% 682 212 0.9% 9,382 $18,007 1.23 1,423 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3,398 784 0.8% 4,041 $29,117 1.06 292 1.5% 1.1% -0.1% 1,049 334 0.8% 92 Public Administration 3,820 $56,614 0.93 63 0.3% -0.2% -0.4% 931 86 0.2% 99 Unclassified 15 $13,319 0.09 12 40.2% 11.6% 12.6% 4 2 1.0% - All Industries 86,188 $45,739 1.00 5,197 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 21,881 8,750 1.0% Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2015Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. 8
Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in Yellowstone is Office and Administrative Support, employing 12,609 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related (10,712 workers) and Food Preparation and Serving Related (8,832). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Construction and Extraction (LQ = 1.32), Installation, Maintenance, and Repair (1.23), and Food Preparation and Serving Related (1.19). Occupation groups in Yellowstone with the highest average wages per worker are Management ($96,100), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical ($75,500), and Architecture and Engineering ($74,200). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 0.4% among Legal to 5.0% among Food Preparation and Serving Related. Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in Yellowstone is expected to be Healthcare Support with a +2.1% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Sales and Related (+1,024 jobs) and Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (+955). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Sales and Related (3,606 jobs) and Food Preparation and Serving Related (3,525). Occupation Snapshot in Yellowstone Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2016q2 2016q2 Change over the Last 5 Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2011q2-2016q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Yellowst one Montan a Montan a Current Online Job Ads 2 Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11- Management 4,861 $96,100 0.93 69 1.4% 235 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 272 1,642 421 0.8% 13-15- 17-19- 21-23- Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service 3,584 $66,200 0.85 70 2.0% 41 0.2% 0.5% 1.6% 131 844 431 1.1% 1,747 $68,200 0.74 30 1.7% 0 0.0% 1.1% 2.7% 86 278 292 1.6% 1,421 $74,200 0.98 27 1.9% 148 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 53 366 134 0.9% 560 $65,900 0.81 13 2.3% 39 1.5% 0.5% 1.1% 39 182 63 1.1% 1,309 $39,200 0.95 19 1.5% 32 0.5% 1.1% 1.5% 68 299 207 1.5% Legal 590 $73,200 0.87 3 0.4% -6-0.2% -0.2% 0.2% 16 121 57 0.9% 25- Education, Training, 3,490 $41,000 0.71 76 2.1% -54-0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 65 790 395 1.1% 9
Occupation Snapshot in Yellowstone Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2016q2 2016q2 Change over the Last 5 Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2011q2-2016q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Yellowst one Montan a Montan a Current Online Job Ads 2 Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent and Library 27-29- 31-33- 35-37- 39-41- 43-45- 47-49- Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 51- Production 53-00- Transportation and Material Moving 1,233 $38,400 0.82 27 2.2% -45-0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 47 450 40 0.3% 5,514 $75,500 1.14 48 0.9% 263 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 528 1,255 955 1.6% 2,557 $29,100 1.01 73 2.9% 103 0.8% 1.6% 2.3% 113 583 582 2.1% 1,411 $40,100 0.85 46 3.2% 24 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 56 331 98 0.7% 8,832 $22,100 1.19 438 5.0% 1,146 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 452 3,525 798 0.9% 3,045 $26,400 0.98 134 4.4% 189 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 125 722 323 1.0% 3,169 $24,500 0.92 98 3.1% 124 0.8% 1.1% 2.2% 178 940 483 1.4% 10,712 $34,400 1.19 381 3.6% 567 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 965 3,606 1,024 0.9% 12,609 $34,200 0.97 402 3.2% 470 0.8% 0.9% 1.6% 489 2,883 590 0.5% 288 $27,000 0.52 15 4.9% 21 1.5% 2.7% 1.4% 3 164 4 0.1% 5,062 $46,800 1.32 222 4.2% 798 3.5% 1.5% 2.3% 55 994 807 1.5% 4,069 $43,100 1.23 131 3.2% 529 2.8% 1.5% 1.7% 193 1,036 435 1.0% 3,477 $39,700 0.65 147 4.1% 206 1.2% 1.9% 1.6% 82 986 123 0.3% 6,648 $37,200 1.14 298 4.5% 368 1.1% 1.8% 2.3% 299 1,762 480 0.7% - All 86,188 $43,100 1.00 n/a n/a 5,197 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 4,315 23,758 8,742 1.0% Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2016Q2 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2015 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings; the listing search uses keywords that are similar to but not the equivalent of the SOC occupation definitions. Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2015Q4, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q2. Wages by 10
occupation are as of 2015 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 11
Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in Yellowstone with the highest relative concentration is Coal/Oil/Power with a location quotient of 2.41. This cluster employs 1,939 workers in the region with an average wage of $115,221. Employment in the Coal/Oil/Power cluster is projected to expand in the region about 0.4% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2015Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in Yellowstone is projected to grow 1.0% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 1.5% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 1.1% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.2% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2016Q2. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 12
FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is replacement demand? Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements retirements and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. 13