Labour Market Outlook Released March 2012
Factors Likely to Affect Alberta s Labour Market Global economic and financial uncertainty created by the Eurozone debt crisis Economic growth in emerging markets Pace of economic growth in the United States (US) Value of the Canadian dollar Price of oil and natural gas Household debt and its impact on consumer spending Babyboomers beginning to retire Interprovincial and international net migration
Components of Population Growth, 2006-2011 Alberta's Population Growth by Component, 2006-2011* Natural Growth Net Interprovincial Net International 50,000 Number of People 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Year *Figures for 2011 are for the first three quarters only Note: Net International includes Net Non-Permanent Residents Data Source: Statistics Canada. Prepared by: Alberta Finance, Economics, Demography and Public Finance, December 20, 2011
Working Age Population (WAP) by Age Group 30% 2001 WAP: 2,364,900 Per cent (%) of WAP 25% 20% 15% 10% 20.1% 18.9% 18.9% 16.9% 22.1% 17.9% 18.5% 17.8% 2011 WAP: 3,006,600 13.8% 12.8% 12.1% 10.2% 5% 0% 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group
Canada and Provinces Labour Force Participation Rates, 2011 Participation Rate (%) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 60.2% 68.1% Canada: 66.8% 63.7% 62.8% 65.2% 66.8% 69.3% 69.2% 73.7% 65.0% 10% 0% NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Province
Participation Rate by Age Group and Sex Labour force participation rate (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 73.1% 68.2% 2001 94.2% 92.0% 80.8% 82.6% 42.5% 25.4% 78.8% 65.8% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 73.2% 66.9% 2011 93.8% 92.6% 83.5% 80.6% 53.5% 39.2% Male Female 79.8% 67.3% 0% 15-24 years 25-44 years 45-54 years 55+ years All Ages Age Group (15+ years) 0% 15-24 years 25-44 years 45-54 years 55+ years All Ages (15+ years) Age Group
Labour Force Statistics by Economic Region, 2011 Athabasca Grande Prairie: Working Age Population: 190,600 Labour Force: 142,600 Unemployment Rate: 5.6% Jasper Banff Rocky Mountain House: Working Age Population: 71,900 Labour Force: 55,000 Unemployment Rate: 3.5% Red Deer: Working Age Population: 154,300 Labour Force: 114,600 Unemployment Rate: 5.8% Calgary: Working Age Population: 1,110,900 Labour Force: 826,400 Unemployment Rate: 5.7% Wood Buffalo Cold Lake: Working Age Population: 103,000 Labour Force: 83,200 Unemployment Rate: 5.2% Edmonton: Working Age Population: 1,000,700 Labour Force: 732,700 Unemployment Rate: 5.5% Camrose Drumheller: Working Age Population: 156,000 Labour Force: 112,300 Unemployment Rate: 4.5% Lethbridge Medicine Hat: Working Age Population: 219,200 Labour Force: 148,400 Unemployment Rate: 5.5%
Employment by Industry, 2011 Retail Trade 231.4 Health Care and Social Assistance 224.9 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 163.5 Accommodation and Food Services 130.8 Educational Services 127.4 Transportation and Warehousing 107.3 Other Services 105.1 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 100.1 Wholesale Trade Public Administration Information, Culture and Recreation 84.8 78.9 91.7 Services-Producing sector: 1,519.2 Business, Building and Other Support Services 73.2 Construction 210.8 Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 151.1 Manufacturing 141.4 Agriculture Utilities Forestry and Logging with Support Activities 3.4 16.3 51.8 Goods-Producing sector: 575.0 Number Employed (000's)
Change in Employment by Industry Change in Employment by Industry, 2010-2011 2010 (000's) 2011 (000's) % Change Total, all industries 2,016.6 2,094.1 3.8% Goods-Producing Sector 540.2 575.0 6.4% Agriculture 47.1 51.8 10.0% Forestry and Logging with Support Activities 3.4 3.4 0.0% Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 140.2 151.1 7.8% Utilities 18.4 16.3-11.4% Construction 206.5 210.8 2.1% Manufacturing 124.6 141.4 13.5% Services-Producing Sector 1,476.4 1,519.2 2.9% Wholesale Trade 74.5 91.7 23.1% Retail Trade 231.5 231.4 0.0% Transportation and Warehousing 104.9 107.3 2.3% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 105.2 100.1-4.8% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 150.9 163.5 8.3% Business, Building and Other Support Services 72.9 73.2 0.4% Educational Services 129.5 127.4-1.6% Health Care and Social Assistance 219.3 224.9 2.6% Information, Culture and Recreation 77.0 78.9 2.5% Accommodation and Food Services 125.2 130.8 4.5% Other Services 98.4 105.1 6.8% Public Administration 86.9 84.8-2.4%
Employment by Occupation, 2011 Sales and service 488.3 Trades, transport and equipment operators 389.7 Business, finance and administrative 376.1 Natural and applied sciences and related 172.8 Management 156.6 Social science, education, government and religion 156.3 Health 124.8 Unique to primary industry 112.5 Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 69.4 Art, culture, recreation and sport 47.7 Employed (000's)
Change in Employment by Occupation Change in Employment by Occupation, 2010-2011 2010 (000's) 2011 (000's) % Change Total, all occupations 2,016.6 2,094.1 3.8% Management occupations 162.5 156.6-3.6% Business, finance and administrative occupations 354.4 376.1 6.1% Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 156.5 172.8 10.4% Health occupations 122.0 124.8 2.3% Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion 157.9 156.3-1.0% Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 44.4 47.7 7.4% Sales and service occupations 478.6 488.3 2.0% Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 373.2 389.7 4.4% Occupations unique to primary industry 106.7 112.5 5.4% Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 60.4 69.4 14.9%
Historical Unemployment, 2001-2011 Unemployment is declining after reaching a recessionary high of 142,100 in 2009. Unemployment (000's) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 142.1 140.7 121.0 94.4 92.9 87.5 79.8 75.2 68.4 72.8 77.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
Canada and Provinces Unemployment Rate, 2011 14% 12% 12.7% Unemployment Rate (%) 10% 8% 6% 4% 11.3% 8.8% 9.5% 7.8% 7.8% Canada = 7.4% 5.4% 5.0% 5.5% 7.5% 2% 0% NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Province
s Unemployment Rate, 2001-2011 The unemployment rate in 2011 was 2.1 percentage points lower than its recessionary peak of 7.5% in April 2010. Unemployment Rate (%) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Unemployment rate, Alberta, 2001-2011 6.6% 6.5% 5.3% 5.5% 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
Unemployment Rate by Industry, 2011 Business, Building and Other Support Services Information, Culture and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Other Services Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration Health Care and Social Assistance Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Wholesale Trade 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 4.8% 5.7% 5.4% 6.6% Services-Producing Sector: 3.6% Construction Manufacturing Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Agriculture N/A* N/A* N/A* 2.8% 3.7% 6.4% Unemployment Rate (%) Goods-Producing Sector: 4.2% * N/A denotes data suppressed by Statistics Canada
Unemployment Rate by Occupation, 2011 Trades, transport and equipment operators 5.4% Sales and service 5.1% Unique to primary industry 4.4% Art, culture, recreation and sport 4.0% Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 3.3% Social science, education, government and religion 2.8% Business, finance and administrative 2.7% Natural and applied sciences and related 2.4% Health 1.7% Management 1.6% Unemployment Rate (%)
Average Hourly Wages, 2000-2011 Alberta s average hourly wage rate increased by 42 cents in 2011 to $25.47. Alberta has had the highest average hourly wage rate in Canada since 2006. Average Hourly Wage ($) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
Average Hourly Wage by Industry, 2011 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Information, Culture and Recreation Other Services Business, Building and Other Support Services Trade (Wholesale and Retail) Accommodation and Food Services $13.82 $19.75 $19.46 $23.96 $22.30 $22.23 $26.51 $25.83 $30.16 $32.56 $32.49 Services-Producing sector: $24.00 Utilities Forestry, Fishing, Mining and Oil and Gas Construction Manufacturing Agriculture $17.43 $25.43 $28.44 $36.20 $35.34 Goods-Producing sector: $29.65 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Average Hourly Wage ($)
Average Hourly Wage by Occupation, 2011 Management Natural and applied sciences and related $38.35 $37.42 Health Social science, education, government and religion Unique to primary industry Trades, transport and equipment operators Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities Art, culture, recreation and sport Business, finance and administrative $30.63 $30.41 $27.30 $26.47 $23.94 $23.90 $23.42 Sales and service $16.41 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Average Hourly Wage ($)
Employment, 2001-2015 From 2012 to 2015, the number of employed Albertans is expected to increase by 206,300. Employment (000's) 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 2001: 1,630,600 2008: 2,053,700 2011: 2,094,100 Forecasted 2015: 2,300,400 1000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Data Sources: Historical Data: Statistics Canada, 2011 Labour Force Survey Forecasted: Alberta Regional Occupational Demand Outlook, 2011-2015
Average Employment Growth by Industry, 2011-2015 Business, Building and Other Support Services Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Information, Culture and Recreation Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Other Services Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Public Administration Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 2.8% 2.5% 1.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% Services-Producing sector: 2.1% Utilities Construction Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction Manufacturing Agriculture 0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% 4.0% Goods-Producing sector: 2.0% Average Employment Growth (%) Data Source: Alberta Modified COPS Outlook 2011-2015, Industry Employment Outlook
Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook, 2011-2021 Shortages Overall Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook for Alberta, 2010-2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Demand (000s) 2,016 2,071 2,123 2,176 2,232 2,294 2,360 2,415 2,472 2,522 2,568 2,623 Supply (000s) 2,157 2,196 2,241 2,288 2,337 2,392 2,449 2,496 2,543 2,580 2,611 2,650 Annual Shortage* 15,814 6,397 6,997 6,746 7,279 8,638 8,100 9,909 12,419 15,145 16,834 Cumulative Shortage 15,814 22,211 29,208 35,954 43,233 51,871 59,971 69,880 82,299 97,444 114,278 * Annual shortage = (Demand [year t+1] Demand [year t]) (Supply [year t+1] Supply [year t]) Data Source: Alberta s Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook 2011-2021
Total Employment Growth by Skill Level, 2011-2015 Percentage of Total 5 Year Growth Employment Growth (%) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 18.2% 35.5% 27.5% 10.5% 8.3% 0% University Degree College or Apprenticeship Secondary School and/or Occupation- Specific Training On-the-Job Training Management Required Skill Level Data Source: Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook, 2011-2021, Occupation by Skill
Outlook, 2011-2021 Educational Attainment by Sex Proportions of Female and Male Educational Attainment, 2011 and 2021 35% Females, 2011 Males, 2011 Females, 2021 Males, 2021 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 20.3% 21.4% 16.2% 16.5% 26.5% 26.7% 21.6% 27.2% 27.7% 29.7% 30.0% 30.1% 25.5% 22.3% 32.2% 26.3% 0% Less Than High School High School College and Trade University Degree Data Source: Alberta s Occupational Supply Outlook Model Note: For more information, please refer to Alberta s Occupational Supply Outlook Model: Education and Skills 2011-2021
Assumptions Oil prices are expected to continue being elevated due to continued demand from emerging markets and a rebounding US economy. This will lead to increased oilsands production. Labour supply pressures in the oilsands sector are expected to increase. Consumer spending is expected to continue to grow owing to the historically low interest rates. Net interprovincial migration to Alberta is expected to pick up due to increasing job opportunities and higher wages. The unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline this year.
For More Information on Departmental Initiatives and Web Sites of Interest... Alberta Human Services (Labour Market Information): http://employment.alberta.ca/lmi Alberta Learning Information Service: www.alis.alberta.ca Canada-Alberta JOBS (Job Order Bank Service): www.jobbank.gc.ca Statistics Canada: www.statcan.gc.ca Alberta-Canada (Immigration Information) www.albertacanada.com