The FY 2016 R&D Budget: Review and Context

The FY 2016 R&D Budget: Review and Context Matt Hourihan March 10, 2015 for the ASEE Engineering Research Council AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1977-2016 in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 Total R&D Defense Nondefense ARRA Total $60 $40 $20 ARRA Defense ARRA Nondefense $0 Source: AAAS analyses of historical budget and appropriations data. Pre-1994 figures are NSF obligations data from the Federal Funds survey. FY 2016 is the President's request. R&D includes conduct and facilities. 2015 AAAS

R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Total Federal Industry Other Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. 2015 AAAS

Research as a Share of GDP by Funder 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Total Research Federal Research Industry Research Other Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. 2015 AAAS

R&D Change by Budget Function, 2005-2015 Percent change from FY 2005 in constant dollars Applied Energy Programs 52.7% Commerce (includes NIST) 51.3% General Science (NSF, DOE SC) 19.1% NASA Budget* -7.3% Environment Agencies -9.7% Health (includes NIH) -10.6% Agriculture -14.2% Defense Activities -20.5% Transportation -40.3% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% *NASA has changed its R&D reporting and classifications multiple times over the years. Total agency budget is shown here rather than R&D. Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other budget documents. Select DHS programs changed functions over the years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. 2015 AAAS

Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 Budget Total Outlays = $4.0 trillion outlays in billions of dollars Other Mandatory $670 Net Interest $283 Defense Discretionary $528 [Defense R&D] $77 Nondefense Discretionary $495 Medicaid $351 [Nondefense R&D] $69 Medicare $583 Social Security $938 Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. 2015 AAAS

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010 billions of constant 2015 dollars $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 Actual Base Budget Authority Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. AAAS 2015

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010 billions of constant 2015 dollars $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Sequester Baseline BCA: Original Baseline Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. AAAS 2015

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010 billions of constant 2015 dollars $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. AAAS 2015

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010 billions of constant 2015 dollars $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Sequester Baseline President's FY 2016 Budget BCA: Original Baseline Current Law Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. AAAS 2015

FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Function percent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars Commerce (includes NIST) 44.8% Applied Energy Programs Agriculture Transportation Environment Agencies Defense Activities General Science (NSF, DOE SC) Health (includes NIH) Space Justice (DHS) TOTAL -35.5% 23.3% 20.5% 17.8% 12.6% 8.1% 5.0% 2.2% 0.9% 6.4% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. 2015 AAAS

Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016 budget authority in billions of dollars Commerce, $2.1 USDA, $2.9 All Other, $6.2 NSF, $6.3 Total R&D = $145.3 billion NASA, $12.2 DOE, $12.5 DOD, $71.9 HHS (NIH), $31.0 Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. 2015 AAAS

Major Funding Priorities l l l l l l l l Advanced Manufacturing Low-carbon energy Climate research and earth observation Agricultural R&D Infrastructure R&D Antibiotic Resistance* Precision Medicine* Discovery Science: l Life sciences and neuroscience l Advanced computing l COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6% l *New for FY16

Agency Notes l NSF: Total Budget: +5.2% l Highest relative changes: SBE: +7.1%, Engineering: +6.4%; l EHR: +11.2% l New priorities: Food/Water/Energy Nexus; climate resilience $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 Trends in DOD Science & Technology in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars l Manufacturing: NNMI proposal revived, again l NIST Labs also boosted across an array of areas l EERE: Advanced Manufacturing office doubled l NSF: CEMMSS cross-agency initiative boosted $6 $4 $2 $0 ARRA Medical research Adv Tech (6.3) Applied (6.2) Basic (6.1) Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is appropriated outside RDT&E title. 2015 AAAS

Agency Notes (Cont.) l Defense S&T flat, including DARPA l 8.3% cut to basic research l Energy: Large increases, again, for renewable and efficiency technology offices, ARPA-E l DOE Science: +5.4% l Advanced Computing: +14.8% l Domestic fusion research cut 10%, ITER flat l Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs funding continues (?) l BES? $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 DOE Office of Science Budgets Budget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars Adv Sci Comp Bio Env Res High-Energy Phys Basic Energy Sci Fusion Energy Nuclear Phys Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request. 2015 AAAS

Agency Notes (Cont.) l NIH: $1 billion program increase (+3.3%) l Largest relative increases: Aging, NCATS l New priorities: Antibiotic Resistance, Precision Medicine l BRAIN Initiative contribution increases to $135 million l Success rate: 19.3% l Other agencies l Familiar contours for NASA: gains for technology office, Earth Science l USDA $$$: extramural research, intramural facilities l Climate research @ USGS, NOAA $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Figure 1: NIH Budget (Constant 2015 dollars in billions) ARRA Funding Cancer Heart Lung Blood Mental Health General Med Sci NIAID NIDDK All Other Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebolarelated fundng in FY 2015. 2015 AAAS

Looking ahead l Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve? l Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged l Debt limit, entitlement growth l Reconciliation strategy?

l 3. agency notes l R&D l STEM

Current Estimates of R&D in the FY16 Budget percent change from FY15, constant dollars NOAA NIST Transportation DOE Energy Programs Agriculture US Geological Survey DOD Other Veterans Affairs National Science Foundation DOE Science National Institutes of Health Environ Protection Agency NASA DOE Defense DOD S&T Homeland Security TOTAL -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. The above adjusts for inflation, expected at 1.6 percent. AAAS Feb. 6, 2015

mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 Thanks! http://www.aaas.org/program/ rd-budget-and-policy-program