BELGIUM S TRADE RELATIONS WITH THE REPUBLIC OF INDIA State Visit to the Republic of India of Their Majesties the King and the Queen of the Belgians 5-11 NOVEMBER 2017
CONTENT 1. IMPORTANCE OF BELGIUM AND THE OTHER EU-COUNTRIES IN THE TRADE WITH INDIA 5 1.1. Exports 6 1.2. Imports 7 2. IMPORTANCE OF INDIA AND ITS NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES IN BELGIUM S FOREIGN TRADE (2016) 9 3. BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONS 13 3.1. Trade in goods 14 3.1.1 Exports 16 3.1.2 Imports 18 3.1.3 General pattern of development of the trade in goods after the first six months of 2017 20 3.2. Trade in services 23 3.2.1 Exports 24 3.2.2 Imports 25 3.2.3 General pattern of development of the trade in services after the first six months of 2017 26 4. SOME ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE ECONOMY OF INDIA 28 5. INDEX OF THE UNIT PRICE IN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 30 6. SOURCES 32
1 IMPORTANCE OF BELGIUM AND THE OTHER EU-COUNTRIES IN THE TRADE WITH INDIA 5
1. IMPORTANCE OF BELGIUM AND THE OTHER EU-COUNTRIES IN THE TRADE WITH INDIA 1.1. EXPORTS 1.2. IMPORTS Total exports of goods from the European Exports of Germany to India increased by Total imports of goods by the European Union Imports of the United Kingdom from India fell Union (EU-28) to India amounted to 0.8% in 2016, while those of France grew (EU-28) from India amounted to EUR 39.3 bil- by 7.1% in value in 2016, while those of Ger- EUR 37.7 billion in 2016. by 22.6% in value. The reason EU exports to lion in 2016. many remained relatively unchanged. Belgium represented a share of 21.5%, which India were down, was in part because of the Belgium was the 3 rd largest importer of made it the 2 nd major exporter of goods to United Kingdom. Its exports took a dive of goods from India within the EU with a share India within the EU. Germany took first place 25.3%, from EUR 5.3 billion to EUR 4.0 billion. of 11.1%. First place was occupied by the with 25.9%, while France rounded out the top United Kingdom with a share of 18.7%, while three with 11.5%. Germany settled in second place with 16.0%. While European exports (EU-28) to India While European imports (EU-28) from India were down by 1.0% in 2016, Belgian exports dropped by 0.4% in 2016, Belgian imports managed to grow by 3.9% during this period. from this particular country were up by 5.8%. As a result, our country gained market share As a result, our market share increased last in India. year. EVOLUTION OF EXPORTS TO INDIA EVOLUTION OF IMPORTS FROM INDIA IN MILLION 2015 2016 VARIATION (IN %) SHARE (IN %) 1. GERMANY 9,704.7 9,781.7 0.8 25.9 IN MILLION 2015 2016 VARIATION (IN %) SHARE (IN %) 1. UTD. KINGDOM 7,912.4 7,349.7-7.1 18.7 2. BELGIUM 7,813.3 8,117.4 3.9 21.5 2. GERMANY 6,302.8 6,300.7 0.0 16.0 3. FRANCE 3,524.2 4,321.7 22.6 11.5 TOTAL EU-28 38,112.6 37,722.4-1.0 100.0 3. BELGIUM 4,132.0 4,371.4 5.8 11.1 TOTAL EU-28 39,458.3 39,292.9-0.4 100.0 6 7
2 IMPORTANCE OF INDIA AND ITS NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES IN BELGIUM S FOREIGN TRADE (2016) 9
2. IMPORTANCE OF INDIA AND ITS NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES IN BELGIUM S FOREIGN TRADE (2016) CLIENT > BELGIAN EXPORTS SUPPLIER > BELGIAN IMPORTS India 8 th client EUR 8,117.4 million 15 th supplier EUR 4,371.4 million Afghanistan 116 th client EUR 56.0 million 180 th supplier EUR 0.3 million China 10 th client EUR 6,927.7 million 7 th supplier EUR 14,549.5 million Myanmar 135 th client EUR 25.4 million 99 th supplier EUR 61.5 million Pakistan 55 th client EUR 427.4 million 54 th supplier EUR 414.9 million Nepal 148 th client EUR 17.9 million 155 th supplier EUR 2.6 million INTEREST IN INDIA The database of the Belgian Foreign Trade Agency, which registers more than 23,000 companies, records 1,403 Belgian companies who export to India and another 2,055 companies who show an interest in this market. For more information: ICT Service; ict@abh-ace.be 10 11
3 BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONS 13
3. BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONS 3.1. TRADE IN GOODS In 2016, India ranked 8 th among Belgium s India was Belgium s 15 th supplier of VARIATION OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (IN %) main clients, before Poland and after Spain. goods in 2016. It ranked after Switzer- Total Belgian exports of goods to India amounted to EUR 8.1 billion compared to EUR 7.8 billion in 2015, a 3.9% increase. India land, but preceded Turkey. Total Belgian imports of goods from India grew by 5.8%, from EUR 4.1 billion in 2015 to 8.5% 5.8% accounted for 2.3% of total Belgian exports. EUR 4.4 billion in 2016. Approximately 1.3% of total Belgian imports came from India. -0.6% -0.5% -1.9% -1.6% 1.0% 3.9% -8.8% EVOLUTION OF BELGIUM S TRADE IN GOODS WITH INDIA IN MILLION 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20.9% Exports Imports EXPORTS 7,945.7 7,902.3 8,571.7 7,813.3 8,117.4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IMPORTS 4,239.4 4,159.6 4,092.2 4,132.0 4,371.4 TRADE BALANCE 3,706.3 3,742.7 4,479.5 3,681.3 3,746.0 EXPORTS: VARIATION IN % -0.6-0.5 8.5-8.8 3.9 IMPORTS: VARIATION IN % -20.9-1.9-1.6 1.0 5.8 Belgium s trade balance with India, which traditionally to EUR 4,479.5 million, which is the highest level of displays a surplus, amounted to EUR 3,706.3 mil- the period under review. After it had decreased to lion in 2012. Since imports dropped by a larger EUR 3,681.3 million in 2015, the trade surplus grew amount than exports in 2013, the surplus grew slightly to EUR 3,746.0 million in 2016, because the value in- to EUR 3,742.7 million. While imports kept moving crease in exports was larger than that of imports. in a negative direction in 2014, exports displayed a positive growth rate. As a result, the surplus rose Because of lower purchases of precious stones and metals, total Belgian imports of goods from India were down by 20.9% in 2012. There was no considerable change during the following two years, as imports dropped by another 1.9% and 1.6% in 2013 and 2014. Imports started to recover modestly in 2015 with a rise of 1.0%, after which the growth rate further increased to 5.8% during the past year. The evolution of Belgian exports of goods to India is traditionally influenced a great deal by a rise or decrease in exports of precious stones and metals. After they displayed a drop of 0.6% in 2012, exports fell by another 0.5% in 2013. Thanks to higher exports of the aforementioned precious stones and metals, total exports were able to record a rise of 8.5% in 2014. They were unfortunately not able to continue this positive trend because lower sales of precious stones and metals once again caused total exports to drop by 8.8% in 2015. They rebounded in 2016 by displaying a growth rate of 3.9%. 14 15
3.1. TRADE IN GOODS 3.1.1. EXPORTS In 2016, precious stones and metals took the top position in total Belgian exports of goods to India. With EUR 6,557.0 million, this group of products represented a share of 80.8% in total exports. This section was mainly composed of diamonds, whether or not worked, but not mounted or set. Exports of chemical products (main subsections: medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses and human vaccines ) amounted to EUR 392.8 million or a share of 4.8%. Machinery and equipment (main subsections: air or vacuum pumps, air or other gas compressors and fans and steam or other vapor generating boilers ) completed the top three with a share of 3.7% and exports totaling EUR 300.7 million. There were three other product groups that also accounted for a share of more than 1.0% in total Belgian exports of goods to India. These sections were: plastics: EUR 240.3 million or a share of 3.0%; base metals: EUR 153.0 million or a share of 1.9% and optical instruments: EUR 115.1 million or a share of 1.4%. BREAKDOWN OF BELGIAN EXPORTS TO INDIA BY PRINCIPAL COMMODITIES (IN %) Precious stones and metals - 80.8% 2016 4.8% - Chemical products 3.7% - Machinery and equipment 3.0% - Plastics 1.9% - Base metals 1.4% - Optical instruments 4.4% - Other product groups VARIATION OF EXPORTS TO INDIA BY PRINCIPAL COMMODITIES (IN VALUE AND QUANTITY) - 2016/2015 Value Quantity -17.7% -13.3% -9.4% Of the product groups that represented a share of more than 1.0% in total exports, the chemical products section recorded the largest percentage increase in 2016. The exported value of this group of products grew by EUR 42.2 million (+12.0%), thanks in large part to the subsections medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses and human vaccines. The 3.9% increase in total Belgian exports to India was however primarily the result of the increase in precious stones and metals (+6.6% or +EUR 405.8 million). This can be attributed to higher exports of diamonds, whether or not worked, but not mounted or set. Optical instruments (+9.4% or +EUR 9.8 million) were the only other product group from the graph above that registered a rise in exports. 6.6% 9.4% 12.0% Precious stones and metals Chemical products Machinery and equipment Plastics Base metals Optical instruments The largest percentage decrease was recorded by plastics. Because of lower exports of polymers of vinyl chloride or of other halogenated olefins, in primary forms, this particular product group was down by 17.7% (-EUR 51.8 million). The two remaining product groups that displayed a negative growth rate were machinery & equipment (-9.4% or -EUR 31.2 million) and base metals (-13.3% or -EUR 23.5 million). While the value of this last product group dropped because of lower exports of flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, the exported quantity was still up. This was because of higher exports of ferrous waste and scrap, but this only had a very limited impact on the evolution of the value. 16 17
3.1. TRADE IN GOODS 3.1.2. IMPORTS In 2016, precious stones and metals took first place in total Belgian imports of goods from India. With a total of EUR 1,812.0 million, this group of products represented a share of 41.5%. Imports of this section were primarily composed of diamonds, whether or not worked but not mounted or set. Imports of base metals (main subsection: flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel ) amounted to EUR 525.2 million or a share of 12.0%. Chemical products, which were composed primarily of medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, cyclic hydrocarbons and heterocyclic compounds with nitrogen hetero-atom(s) only, completed the top three with a share of 11.8% or EUR 514.8 million in imports. Textiles were the only other product group with a share of more than 5.0% in imports. The value of this group of products amounted to EUR 436.3 million or a share of 10.0%. VARIATION OF IMPORTS FROM INDIA BY PRINCIPAL COMMODITIES (IN VALUE AND QUANTITY) - 2016/2015 Value Quantity -0.5% -7.9% -24.2% 1.0% 36.6% 4.4% 2.9% 23.4% 3.4% 115.3% Precious stones and metals Base metals Chemical products Textiles Mineral products Machinery and equipment Vegetable products Animal products Plastics Footwear, headgear, BREAKDOWN OF BELGIAN IMPORTS FROM INDIA BY PRINCIPAL COMMODITIES (IN %) Other product groups - 8.4% Plastics - 2.0% Animal products - 2.2% Vegetable products - 2.5% Machinery and equipment - 4.8% Mineral products - 4.8% Textiles - 10.0% Chemical products - 11.8% 2016 41.5% - Precious stones and metals 12.0% - Base metals Of the ten main product groups, the mineral products section (+115.3% or +EUR 112.9 million) accounted for the largest percentage increase. The value of this product group grew from EUR 97.9 million in 2015 to EUR 210.8 million in 2016 due to higher imports of petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals. The other product groups of which imports increased, recorded a growth rate that varied from 1.0% (chemical products) to 36.6% (base metals). The rise of this last product group can be attributed in large part to higher imports of flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel. The value of precious stones and metals, Belgium s main import section from India, was down by 0.5% (-EUR 9.7 million). The imported quantity on the other hand recorded a significant increase because of higher imports of imitation jewellery. However, this particular product group only had a very limited impact on the value. Imports of animal products fell from EUR 129.3 million to EUR 98.0 million between 2015 and 2016, which is a decrease of 24.2%. The reason why the value of this particular product group was down, had to do with lower imports of crustaceans. Vegetable products (-7.9% or -EUR 9.5 million) were the only other product group from the top ten that displayed a negative growth rate. Since imports of four of the five major sections were up, total Belgian imports of goods from India grew by 5.8% in value in 2016. 18 19
3.1. TRADE IN GOODS 3.1.3. GENERAL PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRADE IN GOODS AFTER THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2017 EXPORTS IMPORTS According to the data available for 2017, Belgian exports of goods to India totaled EUR 4.4 billion after the first six months. This is 0.9% (-EUR 38.0 million) less than after the equivalent period of 2016. Precious metals and stones were still firmly in first place after the first semester of 2017 despite a drop in exports of 2.1% (-EUR 77.7 million). This group of products represented an amount of EUR 3,558.8 million, good for 81.0% of total exports. Exports of chemicals grew by 14.9% (+EUR 29.3 million) in value in 2017 (first six months), reaching EUR 226.0 million or a 5.1% share. With EUR 156.6 million, the machinery and equipment section completed the top three list of Belgium s exports of goods to India. Thanks to a 3.4% increase (+EUR 5.2 million), this group of products accounted for 3.6% of total exports. Belgian imports of goods from India amounted to EUR 2.6 billion after the first six months of 2017. This is a 13.2% (+EUR 301.4 million) increase in comparison to the same period of 2016, when imports reached a total of EUR 2.3 billion. After the first semester of 2017, imports of precious stones and metals remained in first place with 33.6% or EUR 867.5 million. Imports of this particular group of products were down by 18.4% (-EUR 195.5 million). The imported value of base metals was up by 210.2% (+EUR 390.3 million). After the first six months of 2017, this group of products represented an amount of EUR 575.9 million or 22.3% of total Belgian imports from India. Imports of chemicals rose from EUR 261.9 million after the first semester of 2016 to EUR 289.5 million after the equivalent period of this year. They were responsible for 11.2% of total imports. 20 21
3. BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONS 3.2. TRADE IN SERVICES In 2016, Belgian exports of services to India were down by 15.7% in value, decreasing from EUR 310.5 million to EUR 261.8 million. This made India the 36 th major client of Belgium after Hungary but before Greece with a share of 0.3% in total Belgian exports of services. Belgian imports of services from India represented EUR 433.0 million in 2016, a 1.9% drop when compared to the year before. India was Belgium s 26 th major supplier of services in 2016 with a share of 0.4%. It ranked before Hungary, but after Hong Kong. EVOLUTION OF BELGIUM S TRADE IN SERVICES WITH INDIA IN MILLION 2014 2015 2016 EXPORTS 245.7 310.5 261.8 IMPORTS 378.2 441.2 433.0 TRADE BALANCE -132.5-130.7-171.2 EXPORTS: VARIATION IN % -25.4 26.4-15.7 IMPORTS: VARIATION IN % -15.4 16.7-1.9 Since imports of services from India outperformed exports to this country during the period 2014-2016, Belgium s services trade balance with India was negative for our country during the entire period under review. The deficit on the services trade balance, which amounted to EUR 132.5 million in 2014, dropped slightly to EUR 130.7 million in 2015 because exports rose by a higher amount than imports. In 2016, exports dropped at a significantly faster rate than imports, which caused the deficit to once again increase to EUR 171.2 million. The negative services balance of the last three years stands in contrast to the balance of goods, which is traditionally in favour of our country. 22 23
3.2. TRADE IN SERVICES 3.2.1. EXPORTS 3.2.2. IMPORTS Other business services were the largest ex- Communication services (+9.2% or In 2016, total Belgian imports of ser- Other business services (+28.8% or port category in total Belgian exports of ser- +EUR 5.8 million) were the only other group vices from India were composed for 40.4% +EUR 38.3 million) were the only other group vices to India in 2016 with a share of 27.3% of services from the top five of which exports or EUR 175.0 million of communication ser- of services from the top five that recorded an or EUR 71.5 million. This section covers moved in a positive direction. vices. Other business services and trans- increase in imports. merchanting, operational leasing services, portation services rounded out the top three legal services, accounting, auditing, book- Exports of construction services, which with a share of 39.5% and 8.4% respec- Since the rise of the previously mentioned keeping and tax consultancy services, ad- amounted to EUR 16.6 million in 2015, re- tively. This last section covers sea transport, service groups and the other services (+1.8% vertising, market research and public opinion mained status quo this past year. air transport, space transport, rail transport, or +EUR 0.4 million) was slightly smaller than polling and waste treatment and depollu- road transport, inland waterway transport the drop in communication services (-7.8% tion. Communication services and transpor- The preceding service groups and the other and pipeline transport. or -EUR 14.9 million), transportation ser- tation services took 2 nd and 3 rd place with a services (+51.4% or +EUR 5.6 million) couldn t vices (-49.9% or -EUR 36.4 million) and travel share of 26.4% and 18.2% respectively. stop total Belgian exports to India from drop- The largest increase from a percentage view- services (-1.5% or -EUR 0.3 million), total ping by 15.7% in 2016. This was due to lower point was registered by the financial ser- Belgian imports of services from India were Of the five major sections, other business exports of transportation services (-58.4%, vices. Imports of this particular section grew down by 1.9% in 2016. services displayed the largest percentage or -EUR 66.9 million) and travel services from EUR 3.5 million in 2015 to EUR 8.2 million increase in 2016. Exports of this section (-8.4% or -EUR 3.7 million). last year, a rise of 134.3%. grew by 17.2%, from EUR 61.0 million in 2015 to EUR 71.5 million last year. BELGIAN IMPORTS FROM INDIA BY PRINCIPAL SERVICES BELGIAN EXPORTS TO INDIA BY PRINCIPAL SERVICES IN MILLION 2015 2016 VARIATION (IN %) SHARE (IN %) OTHER BUSINESS SERVICES 61.0 71.5 17.2 27.3 COMMUNICATION SERVICES 63.3 69.1 9.2 26.4 TRANSPORTATION SERVICES 114.6 47.7-58.4 18.2 TRAVEL SERVICES 44.1 40.4-8.4 15.4 CONSTRUCTION SERVICES 16.6 16.6 0.0 6.3 OTHER SERVICES 10.9 16.5 51.4 6.3 IN MILLION 2015 2016 VARIATION (IN %) SHARE (IN %) COMMUNICATION SERVICES 189.9 175.0-7.8 40.4 OTHER BUSINESS SERVICES 132.8 171.1 28.8 39.5 TRANSPORTATION SERVICES 72.9 36.5-49.9 8.4 TRAVEL SERVICES 19.9 19.6-1.5 4.5 FINANCIAL SERVICES 3.5 8.2 134.3 1.9 OTHER SERVICES 22.2 22.6 1.8 5.2 TOTAL 441.2 433.0-1.9 100.0 TOTAL 310.5 261.8-15.7 100.0 24 25
3.2. TRADE IN SERVICES 3.2.3. GENERAL PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRADE IN SERVICES AFTER THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2017 EXPORTS IMPORTS According to the data available for 2017, Belgian exports of services to India amounted to EUR 171.9 million after the first six months. This is a 10.9% increase (+EUR 16.9 million) when compared to the same period of 2016. Exports of transportation services were up by 50.9% (+EUR 10.9 million) in 2017 (first semester), reaching EUR 32.2 million or a share of 18.7% in total exports. With EUR 23.2 million, other business Belgian imports of services from India totaled EUR 220.8 million after the first six months of 2017. This is an increase of 8.0% in comparison to the same period of 2016, when imports reached a total of EUR 204.4 million. Other business services were second with EUR 81.4 million or a 36.9% share. Imports of this particular group of services were up by 4.6% (+EUR 3.6 million) after the first six months of 2017. Communication services were in first place after the first six months of 2017. This section accounted for EUR 58.1 million or 33.8% of total exports, which is a 10.4% (+EUR 5.5 million) rise in comparison to the equivalent period of 2016. services completed the list of Belgium s top three most exported services to India. Despite a drop in exports of 36.5% (-EUR 13.3 million), this section represented 13.5% of total services. After the first semester of 2017, communication services were still in first place and reached EUR 97.6 million or a 44.2% share. Imports of this section grew by 19.9% (+EUR 16.2 million). Finally, imports of transportation services rose by 35.0%, from EUR 16.5 million after the first six months of 2016 to EUR 22.3 million after the equivalent period of this year. They were responsible for 10.1% of total Belgian imports of services from India. 26 27
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE (2016 - ESTIMATES) GDP 2,256.0 billion USD GDP GROWTH 6.8% INFLATION 4.9% 4 EXPORTS OF GOODS (FOB) IMPORTS OF GOODS (FOB) TRADE BALANCE POPULATION (2017) 262.3 billion USD 381.0 billion USD -118.7 billion USD 1,281.9 million SOME INDICATORS ON THE ECONOMY OF INDIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.0% MAIN CLIENTS: IN % OF TOTAL (2016) MAIN SUPPLIERS: IN % OF TOTAL (2016) UNITED STATES 15.2 CHINA 15.7 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 11.4 SAUDI ARABIA 5.4 HONG KONG 4.6 SWITZERLAND 5.4 MAJOR EXPORTS PETROLEUM PRODUCTS PRECIOUS STONES VEHICLES MACHINERY MAJOR IMPORTS CRUDE OIL PRECIOUS STONES MACHINERY CHEMICALS Source: CIA World Factbook 28 29
INDEX The table below gives an overview of the evolution of the index of the unit price in imports and exports for Belgium (with the world). EXPORTS IMPORTS 2002 86.1 81.7 5 INDEX OF THE UNIT PRICE IN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS Thanks to this index, the general evolution of the price of goods can be analyzed. This makes it possible to see the global evolution of Belgian imports and exports in perspective by determining the part which is caused by the price evolution (and hence which part is caused by a change in quantity). The table has to be interpreted as follows: If a given product had an export value of EUR 100 in the year 2010, then this product had an average value of EUR 103.2 in 2016. The same principle goes for imports. If a particular product had an import value of EUR 100 in 2010, the same product had an import value of EUR 103.5 in 2016. 2003 85.1 80.8 2004 86.3 82.9 2005 90.9 88.6 2006 94.3 92.7 2007 96.6 93.8 2008 100.4 100.4 2009 93.8 92.0 2010 100.0 100.0 2011 106.9 108.4 2012 109.5 111.7 2013 108.7 110.7 2014 107.3 108.5 2015 106.5 107.1 2016 103.2 103.5 30 31
World Bank www.worldbank.org National Bank of Belgium www.nbb.be 6 SOURCES CIA World Factbook www.cia.gov Directorate-General Commerce, European Commission http://ec.europa.eu/trade Eurostat, European Commission http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Credendo Group www.credendogroup.com World Trade Organization www.wto.org 32 33
Publication date: OCTOBER 2017