Global Index Briefing: All Country World MSCI November 21, 2017 Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-72-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-47-306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents All Country World MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Blue Angels Forward Earnings and Valuation 2 Earnings 3 Revenues 4 NERI & Margins Earnings Growth & Valuation 6 November 21, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World MSCI www.
Stock Price Index 0 00 Figure 1. ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI INDEX (ratio scale) 11/21 61 6 40 Local currency US$ 1 46 41 36 31 26 21 10 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 Source: MSCI. 16 1.00 Figure 2. ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index) 1.00...0.0.8 11/21.8.80.80.7 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 Source: MSCI..7 Page 1 / November 21, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World MSCI www.
600 0 00 Figure 3. Blue Angels Forward Earnings and Valuation ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION (in local currency) x16 All Country World MSCI Index 11/21/17 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* x14 11/17/17 600 0 00 40 x12 40 x x8 10 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 10 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 600 Figure 4. ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION (in US$) 600 0 All Country World MSCI Index 11/21/17 0 00 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /17 x16 00 40 x14 40 x12 x x8 10 10 0 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 0 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 2 / November 21, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World MSCI www.
Earnings 44 3 34 Figure. ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (in local currency) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 17 18 11/17 44 3 34 2 2 24 24 14 14 Forward earnings* 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. 3 34 Figure 6. ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (in US$) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 3 34 2 17 18 2 24 24 14 Forward earnings* 14 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. Page 3 / November 21, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World MSCI www.
40 42 37 Figure 7. Revenues ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in local currency) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 17 18 11/17 40 42 37 32 Forward revenues* 32 27 27 22 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 22 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. 37 Figure 8. ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in US$) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 37 32 17 18 32 27 Forward revenues* 27 22 22 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. Page 4 / November 21, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World MSCI www.
1 Figure. NERI & Margins ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 1 0 Nov 0 - - - - -1-1 -20-20 -2-30 -3 NERI Sep 0.73 Oct 1.4 Nov 1.82 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20-2 -30-3 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Figure. ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 17 18 8 8 7 Forward profit margin* (.1) 7 6 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 6 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page / November 21, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World MSCI www.
40 3 30 2 Figure 11. Earnings Growth & Valuation ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) LTEG* (14.) STEG* (.6) STRG* (.3) 40 3 30 2 20 20 1 1 0-6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. 0-30 2 20 Figure 12. ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI VALUATION Forward P/E* (16.1) 30 2 20 1 1 2. 2. 2.0 PEG Ratio*** (1.1) 2.0 1. 1. 1.0 1.0. 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 2017 2018 20. * Price divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, then weekly. ** Forward P/E relative to MSCI World forward P/E. *** Forward P/E relative to consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 6 / November 21, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World MSCI www.
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