Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends December 1, 16 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-36 jabbott@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Earnings & Revenue Growth 1 Revenues & Earnings 2 S&P Revenues 3 S&P Operating Earnings 4-6 S&P Dividend Yield 7 S&P Dividends 8 S&P Write-Offs 9 December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
1 1 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8-1 -1 Figure 1. S&P EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH* (yearly percent change) S&P Earnings & Revenue Growth Latest data thru 11/28/16 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 Q4 1 1 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8-1 -1 * Yearly growth rates capped at +1% and -1% due to extreme values. ** Industry analysts consensus expected earnings growth. Figure 2. S&P REVENUES PER SHARE GROWTH (yearly percent change) Latest data thru 11/28/16 1 1 - - -1-1 - - - - -2 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18-2 Page 1 / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
Revenues & Earnings 12 1 Figure 3. S&P REVENUES PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL (dollars) 11/17 12 1 1 1 11 11 1 9 Revenues Per Share Forward Revenues* Revenues** (4Q sum) 1 9 9 9 8 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 8 * Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus revenues estimates. ** Actual 4Q sum from Standard & Poor s Corporation. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s Corporation. 1 1 Figure 4. S&P EARNINGS & REVENUES Revenues (trailing 4-quarter sum) Earnings* (trailing 4-quarter sum) 12 1 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 4 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 * Operating earnings. Page 2 / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
S&P Revenues 31 29 Figure. S&P REVENUES (dollars per share) 31 29 27 27 2 2 23 23 21 21 19 19 17 17 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor s. Figure 6. S&P REVENUES* (yearly percent change) 1 1 - - -1-1 - - - -2 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 - -2 * Using dollars per share. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 3 / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
S&P Operating Earnings 3 3 Figure 7. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS (dollars per share) 3 3 2 2 Total (31.2) 1 1 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 6 Figure 8. S&P OPERATING EPS (yearly percent change) Capped at 6 4 Total (4.1) 4 - - -4-4 -6-6 -8 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. -8 Page 4 / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
S&P Operating Earnings 3 Figure 9. S&P AGGREGATE NET INCOME (billion dollars) 3 1 1-1 Operating (249.7) Reported (221.) -1 - - -3 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18-3 3 3 Figure 1. S&P OPERATING EPS: THOMSON REUTERS vs. S&P MEASURES (dollars per share) 3 3 2 Thomson (31.23) S&P (28.89) 2 1 1-9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. - Page / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
14 Figure 11. S&P Operating Earnings S&P TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS THOMSON VS. S&P 14 1 1 1 Thomson (117.32) S&P (11.62) 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 Source: Standard & Poor s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 12. S&P TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS THOMSON VS. S&P 1 Dollar Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPS Thomson less S&P 1-4 3 3 2 1 - -1 Percent Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPS Thomson divided by S&P 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 Source: Standard & Poors and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. - 4 3 3 2 1 - -1 Page 6 / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
Figure 13. S&P Dividend Yield TREASURY BILL YIELD VS S&P DIVIDEND YIELD (percent) Three-Month Treasury Bill Yield S&P Dividend Yield* 1 1 46 48 2 4 6 8 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 * S&P four-quarter trailing dividends per share divided by quarterly closing value of the S&P index. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Figure 14. S&P DIVIDEND YIELD (trailing 4-quarter sum) 4 4 3 3 Invested in 197 (2.2) Invested in 198 (33.) Invested in 199 (13.6) Invested in (3.3) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 7 / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
8.2 6.2 4.2 Figure. S&P Dividends S&P DIVIDENDS & RETAINED EARNINGS PER SHARE (dollars, trailing 4-quarter sum, ratio scale) 8.2 6.2 4.2.2.2 Dividends Retained Earnings*.2 46 48 2 4 6 8 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18.2 * Reported earnings minus dividends per share. 1 8 Figure 16. S&P DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIOS* (percent) S&P S&P Industrials 1 8 6 4 6 4 1 9 9 S&P COMPANIES PAYING A DIVIDEND (percent of total) 1 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 46 48 2 4 6 8 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 6 7 * Four-quarter trailing dividends per share divided by four-quarter trailing reported earnings. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and FactSet. Page 8 / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
3 3 Figure 17. S&P Write-Offs S&P OPERATING & REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (S&P data) (dollars, quarterly) 3 3 2 2 1 1 - -1 Operating (S&P data) (28.9) Reported (S&P data) (2.6) - -1 - - - -2 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 - -2 4 3 3 2 1 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 1-1 Figure 18. S&P WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE* (dollars) 4-Quarter Sum Actual x 4 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 4 3 3 2 1 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 1-1 * S&P Operating less S&P reported earnings per share. Page 9 / December 1, 16 / Market Briefing: S&P Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends www.
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