QUEBEC ONTARIO September 5, 14 The labour market stands still in August highlights Statistics Canada reports that Quebec added a lacklustre 4,1 jobs in August. 4,1 Employment trends in Quebec and Ontario have contrasted since last December 7, The unemployment dropped below 8.%, to 7.7%, because of a decline in the labour force (-14, people), its lowest point since last April. In Ontario, August s loss of 7,9 jobs followed a sizable rise in July. 4,5 4, 3,95 Quebec (left) Ontario (right) 6,95 6,9 6,85 6,8 6,75 The unemployment still ticked down one percentage point to 7.4%, where it was last April. 3,9 6,7 6, 3,85 12 13 14 6,6 comments In August, Quebec posted its fourth straight month of near stagnation following a disappointing start to the year. All in all, it has lost 21, jobs since December 13. Since December 12, it has added only 17,1 jobs. Two sectors stood out last month: education (+23,7) and construction (+1,). Two others took hits: manufacturing (-19,5) and warehousing (-14,). Manufacturing employment has lost, workers since the year began. In August, fulltime employment is down somewhat (-1,8), in favour of part-time, which rose (+5,8). August was negative for Ontario after July s big surge (+39,5), which made up for June s 33,9-job tumble. Over the last three months, it has lost 2,3 jobs: a very tough summer. However, since the start of the year, Ontario has added 55,6 jobs to the ranks of its workers. Last month, three sectors managed to do well: public administration (+17,), accommodation and food services (+11,), and business management (+1,7). The biggest losses came in education (-27,3) and trade (-19,). Note that full-time employment advanced by 18,1 last month, while parttime employment lost ground (-26,1). Implications: While the Quebec and Ontario labour markets are showing few signs of acceleration in August, North America s economy has, for its part, tended to firm up in the last few months. Before we jump to the conclusion that employment will show a sustained rise in Quebec and Ontario this fall, we will have to wait and see if businesses opt to boost productivity again or focus on hiring. It would be surprising if they all chose the same option, suggesting that employment could advance gradually in both provinces through the end of 14. Expectations for 15 are more optimistic. Joëlle Noreau Senior Economist François Dupuis 418-835-245 or 1 866 835-8444, ext. 245 Vice-President and Chief Economist E-mail: desjardins.economics@desjardins.com Hélène Bégin Benoit P. Durocher Francis Généreux Joëlle Noreau Senior Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist Note to readers: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. Important: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accu or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document's authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright 14, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.
REFERENCE TABLES OF LABOUR MARKET September 5, 14 Variation by sector - August 14 GAINING Sectors Balance LOSING Sectors Balance 1 month 1 year 1 month 1 year CANADA Construction 24, -26,3 Trade -26,5-1,8 Prof. and scient. services 21,3 33,9 Transportation and warehousing -14,7 29, Public administration,5 47,5 Fin., insurance and real estate -13,5-15,8 Accomodation and food services 6,9 8, Manufacturing -11, -29,6 QUEBEC Educational services 23,7 8,7 Manufacturing -19,5-11,8 Construction 1, -17,3 Transportation and warehousing -14, 8, Trade 7,9 13, Accomodation and food services -9, 18,8 Health care 7,5 -,8 Others services -4, -7,9 ONTARIO Public administration 17, 12,7 Educational services -27,3 21,9 Accomodation and food services 11, 4, Trade -19, 2, Bus., build. and other supp. serv. 1,7-12,7 Transportation and warehousing -15,1-19,7 Fin., insurance and real estate 9,7 3, Manufacturing -5,8 -, Source: LFS, Statistics Canada Labour Market August NUMBER OF JOB CREATION 14 EMPLOYEES in numbers August Last Last Since Last Last year Seasonally adjusted data 14 month 3 months december year in % Canada 17,851, -11, 21,3 83,5 81,3.5% TOTAL JOBS Quebec 4,24,5 4,1 9,5-21,,.5% Ontario 6,932, -7,9-2,3 55,6 14,.2% Canada 3,676, 14, 26,3 53,7 75,9 2.1% PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES Quebec 893,3 27,5-4,8 17,7 27,8 3.2% Ontario 1,367, -1,7 37, 25,1 21,1 1.6% Canada 11,4,8-111,8-78, -56,6-3,6.% PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYEES Quebec 2,574,6-35,5 13,6-5,1-35, -1.3% Ontario 4,496, -42,8-67,8-9, 9,7.2% Canada 2,754,7 86,9 73,3 86,5 9,1.3% SELF-EMPLOYED Quebec 556,6 12,1 7 11, 27,5 5.2% Ontario 1,69, 45,6 28,5 39,5-16,9-1.6%
Reference Tables of Labour Market September 5, 14 www.desjardins.com/economics Labour Market - Recent trends Seasonally adjusted data Labour Variation Unemploy- Employment Job creation in last: Force over Participation Employment ment in numbers 1 month 3 months 12 months Numbers 1 month Canada 13.8 17,77,1,5 25,5 25,1 19,133,3 57,7 66.6% 61.9% 7.1% 13.9 17,775,1 5, 26,7 213, 19,1,5-32,8 66.4% 61.8% 6.9% 13.1 17,786,8 11,7 81, 215, 19,118, 17,7 66.4% 61.8% 7.% 13.11 17,811,9 25,1 41,8 183,6 19,138,1 19,9 66.4% 61.8% 6.9% 13.12 17,767,9-44, -7, 99, 19,151, 13,3 66.4% 61.6% 7.2% 14.1 17,797,3 29, 1,5 145,9 19,13,5 -,9 66.3% 61.6% 7.% 14.2 17,79,3-7, -21,6 94,7 19,133, 2,9 66.2% 61.6% 7.% 14.3 17,833, 42,9,3 19, 19,158,6 25, 66.2% 61.7% 6.9% 14.4 17,84,3-28,9 7, 149, 19,133, -25,6 66.1% 61.5% 6.9% 14.5 17,83,1 25,8 39,8 85,5 19,173,9,9 66.1% 61.5% 7.% 14.6 17,8,7-9, -12,5 72,3 19,19, 16,3 66.1% 61.4% 7.1% 14.7 17,862, 41,7 58,1 156,8 19,214,9 24,7 66.1% 61.4% 7.% 14.8 17,851, -11, 21,3 81,3 19,194,1 -,8 66.% 61.3% 7.% Quebec 13.8 4,4,3-35, 4, 4,348,5-7,9.9% 59.8% 7.9% 13.9 4,18,9 14,6-13,5 12,8 4,348, -3.9% 6.% 7.6% 13.1 4,46,5 27,6 42, 28, 4,375,9 27,7.2% 6.3% 7.5% 13.11 4,61,6 15,1 57,3 24,9 4,379,1 3,.3% 6.5% 7.3% 13.12 4,45,5-16,1 26,6 3,9 4,384, 4,9.3% 6.3% 7.7% 14.1 4,58, 12,7 11,7 1, 4,384,9 9.3% 6.4% 7.5% 14.2 4,32,7-25,5-28,9-2,6 4,375,3-9,6.1% 6.% 7.8% 14.3 4,47,8 15,1 2,3 31, 4,379,1 3,8.1% 6.2% 7.6% 14.4 4,15,8-32, -42, -4,8 4,347, -31,7.6% 59.7% 7.6% 14.5 4,15, -8-17,7-24,7 4,3,9 17,5.8% 59.6% 8.% 14.6 4,18,5 3,5-29,3-13,9 4,374,9 1,.9% 59.6% 8.1% 14.7 4,, 1,9 4,6 16,3 4,375,6 7.8% 59.6% 8.1% 14.8 4,24,5 4,1 9,5, 4,361,6-14,.6% 59.6% 7.7% Ontario 13.8 6,918, 38, 23,1 153,8 7,478,6 31,9 66.6% 61.7% 7.5% 13.9 6,98, -1, 17,9 116,9 7,452,7-25,9 66.3% 61.5% 7.3% 13.1 6,898,8-9,6 18,8 13,6 7,451, -1,5 66.3% 61.3% 7.4% 13.11 6,97,1 8,3-11,3 84,5 7,454,1 2,9 66.2% 61.4% 7.3% 13.12 6,876,8-3,3-31,6,5 7,466,3 12, 66.3% 61.% 7.9% 14.1 6,882,8 6, -16, 53,8 7,438, -28,1 66.% 61.% 7.5% 14.2 6,888,9 6,1-18, 28,7 7,448,7 1,5 66.% 61.% 7.5% 14.3 6,92,3 13, 25,5 6,5 7,449,7 1,.9% 61.1% 7.3% 14.4 6,919,9 17,6 37,1 73,5 7,475,5 25,8 66.1% 61.2% 7.4% 14.5 6,934,7 14,8 45,8 39, 7,483,6 8,1 66.1% 61.2% 7.3% 14.6 6,9,8-33,9-1,5 1,3 7,463, -,.8% 6.9% 7.5% 14.7 6,9,3 39,5, 6,3 7,5,3 36,9 66.1% 61.2% 7.5% 14.8 6,932, -7,9-2,3 14, 7,486, -14,3.9% 61.1% 7.4% 2
Reference Tables of Labour Market September 5, 14 www.desjardins.com/economics Other Labour Market Indicators SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Last publication Same month Month Level -1 MONTH -3 MONTHS -6 MONTHS -1 YEAR CANADA Average weekly wages ($) June 1,49.35 1,39.36 1,34.34 1,49.7 1,26.81 Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector June 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.3 QUEBEC Average weekly wages ($) June 951.61 946.91 951.57 962.14 948.63 Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector June 3.1 3.3 3. 3.2 3.1 ONTARIO Average weekly wages ($) June 1,79.51 1,7.27 1,62.71 1,78.59 1,59. Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector June 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.1 Annual Data Annual average 8 9 1 11 12 13 CANADA TOTAL JOBS 17,87, 16,813,1 17,41, 17,36, 17,57,7 17,731, JOB CREATION 281,8-274,3 227,9 2, 1,5 223,5 Job growth (%) 1.7% -1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1.2% 1.3% 6.1% 8.3% 8.% 7.5% 7.2% 7.1% QUEBEC TOTAL JOBS 3,88, 3,848, 3,915,1 3,953,6 3,984, 4,32, JOB CREATION 46,3-32, 66,7 38,5 3,8 47,8 Job growth (%) 1.2% -.8% 1.7% 1.%.8% 1.2% 7.2% 8.5% 8.% 7.8% 7.8% 7.6% ONTARIO TOTAL JOBS 6,666,3 6,52, 6,61, 6,731,3 6,783,8 6,879, JOB CREATION 12, -1,3 18, 121,3 52,5 95,6 Job growth (%) 1.6% -2.5% 1.7% 1.8%.8% 1.4% 6.5% 9.% 8.7% 7.8% 7.8% 7.5% 3
Reference Tables of Labour Market September 5, 14 www.desjardins.com/economics QUEBEC / ONTARIO Level of employment CANADA / QUEBEC / ONTARIO Rate 7, 4,1 1 1 6,8 4, Canada Ontario Quebec 6,6 3,9 9 9 6, 3,8 8 8 6, 3,7 6, 3,6 7 7 5,8 Quebec (rigth) Ontario (left) 3,5 6 6 5,6 3, 5, 3,3 5 5 CANADA / QUEBEC / ONTARIO Participation Rate CANADA / QUEBEC / ONTARIO Employment Rate 7 7 69 Canada Ontario Quebec 69 63 63 68 68 62 62 67 67 61 61 66 66 6 6 59 59 58 Canada Ontario Quebec 58 57 57 UNITED STATES / CANADA / QUEBEC / ONTARIO Employment Index CANADA Evolution of employment Feb. 1 = 1 121 United States Quebec Feb. 1 = 1 121 1 1 1 1 118 Ontario Canada 118 8 8 115 115 6 6 112 112 19 19 - - 16 16 - -6 - -6 13 13-8 -8 1 1-1 -1-1 -1 97 97-1 -1 QUEBEC Evolution of employment ONTARIO Evolution of employment 5 3 1-1 - -3-5 -5 3 1-1 - -3 - -5 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 1-1 -1 - - -3-3 - - -5-5 -6-6 -7-7 -8-8 4
Reference Tables of Labour Market September 5, 14 www.desjardins.com/economics SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA LABOUR MARKET BY PROVINCE August PREVIOUS MONTHS Monthly averages Employment 14 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 3 months 6 months 12 months In the last year CANADA JOBS 17,851, 17,862, 17,8,7 17,83,1 17,84,3 17,844,833 17,833,683 17,81,95 17,77,1 CREATION -11, 41,7-9, 25,8-28,9 7,1 1,183 6,775 81,3 7.% 7.% 7.1% 7.% 6.9% 7.% 7.% 7.%.5%* Newfoundland JOBS 224,1 226, 221,5 224, 228,5 223,933 226,83 229,442 232, CREATION -2,1 4,7-2,9-4,1-3,3-1 -1, -8-7,9 13.5% 12.4% 12.5% 12.7% 12.1% 12.8% 12.5% 11.9% -3.4%* Prince Edward JOBS 74,5 74,3 74, 73,5 72,9 74,333 73,917 73,992 74, Island CREATION 1 7 6-1, 333-33 42 5 1.% 9.4% 9.8% 12.2% 11.7% 9.7% 1.8% 11.1%.7%* Nova Scotia JOBS 447, 443,1 447, 447,1 448, 445,7 446, 448,867 456, CREATION 3,9-3,9-1 -1,3 1,1-33 -617-75 -9, 8.8% 9.4% 8.7% 8.9% 8.9% 9.% 9.% 9.% -2.%* New Brunswick JOBS 353, 349, 352,8 35,1 35,9 351,733 352,83 352,125 349,7 CREATION 3,6-3, 2,7-8 -5, 967-17 275 3,3 8.7% 1.% 9.6% 1.2% 1.5% 9.4% 9.8% 9.9%.9%* Quebec JOBS 4,24,5 4,, 4,18,5 4,15, 4,15,8 4,21,133 4,23,667 4,33,783 4,4,3 CREATION 4,1 1,9 3,5-8 -32, 3,167-1,367 1,683, 7.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.% 7.6% 8.% 7.9% 7.7%.5%* Ontario JOBS 6,932, 6,9,3 6,9,8 6,934,7 6,919,9 6,924,5 6,921,733 6,97,767 6,918, CREATION -7,9 39,5-33,9 14,8 17,6-767 7,25 1,167 14, 7.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.4% 7.4%.2%* Manitoba JOBS 632,6 633,8 632,1 628,3 627, 632,833 63,583 631,142 631, CREATION -1, 1,7 3,8 9-1,9 1,433 117 1, 5.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.6% 5.5%.2%* Saskatchewan JOBS 566,7 566,5 5, 563,1 561,3 5,733 563,317 56,192 558,6 CREATION 2,5 9 1,8 3, 1, 1,467 675 8,1 4.2% 3.2% 3.9% 3.7% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 1.5%* Alberta JOBS 2,269, 2,282,6 2,284,1 2,274,7 2,258,3 2,278,633 2,271,683 2,257,5 2,231, CREATION -13, -1,5 9, 16, -2,9-1,833 1,183 3,15 37,8 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 1.7%* British JOBS 2,327,6 2,325,8 2,325,8 2,319,1 2,321, 2,326, 2,324, 2,316,175 2,314, Columbia CREATION 1,8 6,7-1,9-3,7 2,833 3,533 1,1 13, Source: Statistics Canada, Labour force Survey 6.1% 5.9% 6.2% 6.1% 5.8% 6.1% 6.% 6.3%.6%* * Change in employment in the last year 5