how can we help you? WeekAHEAD Securities 7 March 2016 SA earnings season moves forward...us 4Q earnings season ends with recession AVI SOL FSR EOH SLM ARI OML Companies to watch this week VOW GR PRU LN BOSS GR CA FP South Africa AVI Ltd Sasol Ltd FirstRand Ltd EOH Holdings Ltd Sanlam Ltd African Rainbow Minerals Ltd Old Mutual PLC Abroad Volkswagen AG Prudential PLC HUGO BOSS AG Carrefour SA 941 HK China Mobile Ltd Analysts Chantal Marx Thabiso Mamathuba Contact us Relationship manager: +27 11 282 4561 Dealing desk: +27 11 282 8734 Website: www.fnbsecurities.co.za The local earnings season intensifies this week with several blue chip companies set to report numbers, we are most looking forward to: AVI (1H16): In a recent trading statement, management guided for HEPS to grow by between 10% and 12% y/y. This was tracking slightly behind full year consensus (+10%). Management noted that the Group s brands generally traded well against the current strained macro backdrop. The company cited the limitation of input cost volatility through currency hedges, disciplined cost management and selling price increases taken in 2H15 as reasons for the reasonable result. Sasol (1H16): Management guided for HEPS to decrease by between 23% and 28%. The mid-point of this range is tracking slightly ahead of full year expectations (consensus: -27%). Profitability was adversely impacted by a 47% lower average Brent crude oil price (at $47/ barrel) and the price of Sasol s chemical basket declining by 23%. This was partly offset by a 24% weaker average ZARUSD exchange rate (at R13.62). FirstRand (1H16): Full year HEPS growth is expected to slow to 8% in FY15 - inline with most consumer financial institutions. A particular focus will be the impact of endowment effects on NII growth as well as the underlying performances of the specific business units - RMB, FNB, and Wesbank. EOH (1H16): According to the management team, HEPS will increase by between 20% and 30% y/y - tracking more or less in-line with full year expectations (Bloomberg consensus: +26%). Sanlam (FY15): For the 10 months ended 31 October, normalised HEPS were up by 12% y/y, ahead of the 5% growth recorded in 1H15 and tracking ahead of full year consensus expectations (+2%). Management noted that investment return on the capital portfolio benefited from a weakening ZAR. The chances for an earnings surprise therefore exists. Old Mutual (FY15): This will be a closely watched result amid talks of a possible deconsolidation of the business in the near future. HEPS growth is expected to be very strong in ZAR terms as a weak rand will benefit from a translation point of view. The opposite will be true on a reported basis. US earnings season basically came to an end last week. So far, of the 99% of companies that have reported, 69% released earnings numbers ahead of consensus expectations, and 47% recorded revenue that beat the anticipated number. 91 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 24 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. This was the first time the index had seen three consecutive quarters of y/y declines in earnings since 2009. For 1Q16, the estimated earnings decline is -8.0%. 4Q16 numbers out of Urban Outfitters and Dollar General may generate some newsflow. Head Office: 4 Merchant Place, 1 Fredman Drive, Sandton 2196 PO Box 3359, Parklands 2121 fnbsecurities@fnb.co.za www.fnbsecurities.co.za Relationship Manager: +27 11 282 4561 Dealing Desk: +27 11 282 8734 Directors: H Mojalefa, PP Dreyer, W Myers, V Naidoo. Company Secretary: C Low FNB Securities (Pty) Ltd - a part of the FirstRand Group. An Authorised user of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and Financial Services Provider (FSP182).
European earnings season will stay busy this week with 45 Stoxx 600 companies expected to report results or release updates this week (last week: 70). Among others, VW (Germany), Prudential (UK), Hugo Boss (Germany), and Carrefour (France) are scheduled to release numbers this week. As we have previously mentioned, European companies earnings are expected to grow at their fastest rate in four years, significantly outpacing that of US companies as a weaker euro, excess liquidity, and a better economic outlook is set to support corporate profits. In the East, focus will likely be on China Mobile - the largest mobile telecommunications company in China (and the World). The company is set to release full year numbers this week with EPS growth anticipated to come in at just 4.2% y/y. Third-quarter profit missed analyst estimates amid stiffer competition, slowing subscriber growth and costs for its new high-speed network. From a local corporate action perspective, Assore, BHP Billiton and City Lodge are trading ex-dividend on Monday and Friday marks the last day to trade in Adcock Ingram, British American Tobacco and Discovery to receive their most recently declared dividends. Company Events Calendar South Africa Date Ticker Company Name Event Description Estimate ZAc 2016/03/07 PET Petmin Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 7 2016/03/07 AVI AVI Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 280.5 2016/03/07 SOL Sasol Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 1820 2016/03/07 ADE Adbee Rf Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 98.6 2016/03/08 MRF Merafe Resources Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 12.3 2016/03/08 ALH Alaris Holdings Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 1.03 2016/03/08 FSR FirstRand Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 195 2016/03/09 AIA Ascension Properties Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 46.42763828 2016/03/09 EOH EOH Holdings Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 362.9 2016/03/09 ASC Ascendis Health Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 47.5 2016/03/09 RMH RMB Holdings Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/09 SOH South Ocean Holdings Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 33.1 2016/03/09 WEZ Wesizwe Platinum Ltd FY15 Earnings Release -7.5 2016/03/10 SLM Sanlam Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 427.1 2016/03/10 AOO African & Overseas Enterprises Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 36.7 2016/03/11 ARI African Rainbow Minerals Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 173 2016/03/11 BEL Bell Equipment Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 67 2016/03/11 OML LN Old Mutual PLC FY15 Earnings Release GBP 0.178 SSA 2016/03/07 VONO NL Vono Products PLC 1Q16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 UNITYBNK NL Unity Bank PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.85 2016/03/07 OANDO NL Oando Plc FY15 Earnings Release -0.93 2016/03/07 GEO CN Geodrill Ltd 4Q15 Earnings Release -0.02 2016/03/07 PBC GN Produce Buying Co Ltd 1Q16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 PZC GN PZ Cussons Ghana Ltd 2Q16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 LKL KN Longhorn Publishers Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 PAIL KN Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 4.793 2016/03/07 CBIL KN Carbacid Investments Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 EAPC KN East African Portland Cement Co Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 1260655D TZ Mwalimu Commercial Bank PLC FY15 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 TCC TZ Tanzania Cigarette Co Ltd FY15 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 ZANACO ZL Zambia National Commercial Bank PLC 4Q15 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 LLR BG Letlole La Rona Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/07 AFS BG Afinitas Ltd FY15 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/08 ZENITHBA NL Zenith Bank PLC FY15 Earnings Release 3.213 2
2016/03/08 STERLNBA NL Sterling Bank PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.24 2016/03/08 AYRTN GN Ayrton Drug Manufacturing Ltd 2Q16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/08 SAMBA GN Samba Foods Ltd FY15 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/08 CIC KN CIC Insurance Group Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 0.46 2016/03/08 UCSP KN Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/09 KPLL KN Kenya Power & Lighting Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/09 KEGC KN Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release 2016/03/09 NICB KN NIC Bank Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 7.21 2016/03/09 SFLN BG Sefalana Holding Co Ltd 1H16 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/10 UNILEVER NL Unilever Nigeria PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.497 2016/03/10 OKOMUOIL NL Okomu Oil Palm PLC FY15 Earnings Release 2.103 2016/03/10 EQBNK KN Equity Group Holdings Ltd/Kenya FY15 Earnings Release 4.775 2016/03/10 SCBL ZL Standard Chartered Bank Zambia PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.15 2016/03/11 GUARANTY NL Guaranty Trust Bank PLC FY15 Earnings Release 3.361 2016/03/11 UCAP NL United Capital PLC FY15 Earnings Release -- 2016/03/11 BMBC KN Bamburi Cement Co Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 13.036 2016/03/11 G4S BG G4S Security Services Botswana Ltd FY15 Earnings Release -- United States 2016/03/07 URBN US Urban Outfitters Inc 4Q16 Earnings Release 0.562 2016/03/10 DHR US Danaher Corp ITC Decision Due in Instradent vs. Danaher Corp. Patent Case 2016/03/10 DG US Dollar General Corp 4Q16 Earnings Release 1.261 2016/03/11 GWW US WW Grainger Inc February FY16 Sales and Revenue Release -- Europe 2016/03/07 DOKA SW dorma+kaba Holding AG 1H16 Earnings Release 2016/03/08 RWE GR RWE AG FY15 Earnings Release 1.808 2016/03/08 LISN SW Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG FY15 Earnings Release 1595.84 2016/03/08 MRK GR Merck KGaA FY15 Earnings Release 4.87 2016/03/08 AF FP Air France-KLM February FY16 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Report 2016/03/08 GFTU LN Grafton Group PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.405 2016/03/08 PPB ID Paddy Power Betfair PLC FY15 Earnings Release 3.423 2016/03/08 ICA SS ICA Gruppen AB February FY16 Sales and Revenue Release 2016/03/08 CBG LN Close Brothers Group PLC 1H16 Earnings Release 0.567 2016/03/08 VOW GR Volkswagen AG FY15 Earnings Release 20.573 2016/03/08 DLG GR Dialog Semiconductor PLC FY15 Earnings Release 2.751 2016/03/08 SY1 GR Symrise AG FY15 Earnings Release 2.149 2016/03/09 BOKA NA Boskalis Westminster FY15 Earnings Release 3.709 2016/03/09 ADEN VX Adecco SA FY15 Earnings Release 4.633 2016/03/09 DPW GR Deutsche Post AG FY15 Earnings Release 1.42 2016/03/09 EOAN GR E.ON SE FY15 Earnings Release 0.802 2016/03/09 SMDS LN DS Smith PLC 3Q16 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Update 2016/03/09 MMB FP Lagardere SCA FY15 Earnings Release 1.773 2016/03/09 BPOST BB bpost SA FY15 Earnings Release 1.553 2016/03/09 RUI FP Rubis SCA FY15 Earnings Release 3.899 2016/03/09 RTN LN Restaurant Group PLC/The FY15 Earnings Release 0.334 2016/03/09 PRU LN Prudential PLC FY15 Earnings Release 1.099 2016/03/09 CO FP Casino Guichard Perrachon SA FY15 Earnings Release 2.929 2016/03/09 LHA GR Deutsche Lufthansa AG FebruaryFY16 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Figures 2016/03/09 ITX SM Industria de Diseno Textil SA FY16 Earnings Release 0.935 -- 3
2016/03/09 GFS LN G4S PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.146 2016/03/10 SDF GR K+S AG FY15 Earnings Release 2.578 2016/03/10 LIN GR Linde AG FY15 Earnings Release 7.502 2016/03/10 BOSS GR HUGO BOSS AG FY15 Earnings Release 4.731 2016/03/10 HNR1 GR Hannover Rueck SE FY15 Earnings Release 8.478 2016/03/10 MPI LN Michael Page International PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.202 2016/03/10 AM FP Dassault Aviation SA FY15 Earnings Release 48.428 2016/03/10 ILD FP Iliad SA FY15 Earnings Release 6.064 2016/03/10 AMFW LN Amec Foster Wheeler PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.589 2016/03/10 AV/ LN Aviva PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.451 2016/03/10 MRW LN Wm Morrison Supermarkets PLC FY16 Earnings Release 0.093 2016/03/10 CA FP Carrefour SA FY15 Earnings Release 1.618 2016/03/10 RTL LX RTL Group SA FY15 Earnings Release 4.859 2016/03/10 FRA GR Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide February FY16 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results 2016/03/10 SRCG SW Sunrise Communications Group AG FY15 Earnings Release -1.414 2016/03/10 AZM IM Azimut Holding SpA FY15 Earnings Release 1.662 2016/03/10 LEG GR LEG Immobilien AG FY15 Earnings Release 3.646 2016/03/11 FHZN SW Flughafen Zuerich AG FY15 Earnings Release 34.998 2016/03/11 MAN GR MAN SE FY15 Earnings Release -0.095 2016/03/11 OML LN Old Mutual PLC FY15 Earnings Release 0.178 Asia Pacific 2016/03/08 410 HK SOHO China Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 0.167 2016/03/09 1193 HK China Resources Gas Group Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 1.342 2016/03/10 1928 JP Sekisui House Ltd FY16 Earnings Release 142.474 2016/03/10 683 HK Kerry Properties Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 2.449 2016/03/10 941 HK China Mobile Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 5.632 2016/03/11 9681 JP Tokyo Dome Corp FY16 Earnings Release 29.37 2016/03/11 2202 HK China Vanke Co Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 1.624 2016/03/11 1313 HK China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd FY15 Earnings Release 0.281 SA Dividends Ticker Company Name LDT Ex Date Pay Date Type Amount HDC Hudaco Industries 26/02/2016 29/02/2016 07/03/2016 Final ZAc 345 ILU Indluplace Properties 26/02/2016 29/02/2016 07/03/2016 Regular Cash ZAc 22.93067 ITE Italtile 26/02/2016 29/02/2016 07/03/2016 Interim ZAc 14 RES Resilient REIT 26/02/2016 29/02/2016 07/03/2016 Interim ZAc 232.46 WHL Woolworths Holdings 26/02/2016 29/02/2016 07/03/2016 Interim ZAc 133 AWA Arrowhead Properties 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Interim ZAc 20.03 AWB Arrowhead Properties 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Interim ZAc 20.03 ASR Assore 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Interim ZAc 200 BIL BHP Billiton PLC 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/31 Interim USD 0.16 CLH City Lodge Hotels 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Interim ZAc 269 DLA Delta Africa Property Holdings 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Regular Cash USD 0.0167 DSBP Discovery Preference Share 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Regular Cash ZAc 480.06849 EMI Emira Property Fund 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Distribution ZAc 70.34 FFA Fortress Income Fund 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Interim ZAc 64.72 FFB Fortress Income Fund 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Interim ZAc 62.81 GFI Gold Fields 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/14 Final ZAc 21 NEP New Europe Property Investment Plc 2016/03/04 2016/03/07 2016/03/22 Final EUR 0.1717 AIP Adcock Ingram Holdings Lt 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/03/22 Interim ZAc 50 BTI British American Tobacco 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/05/05 Final GBp 104.6 -- 4
COM Comair Ltd 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/03/22 Interim ZAc 5 DRD DRDGOLD Ltd 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/03/22 Regular Cash ZAc 12 DTA Delta EMD Ltd 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/03/22 Final ZAc 100 DSY Discovery Ltd 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/03/22 Interim ZAc 85.5 DST Distell Group Ltd 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/03/22 Interim ZAc 165 TFGP Foschini Group Ltd/The 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/03/22 Regular Cash ZAc 6.5 HPA Hospitality Property Fund 2016/03/11 2016/03/14 2016/03/22 Interim ZAc 76.9955 Other SA Corporate Actions Date Ticker Company Name Event Description Detail 2016/03/07 SMM Sable Metals and Minerals Pay Date Scheme of Arrangement 1 unlisted share per listed share 2016/03/07 DRN Delrand Resources Pay Date Consolidation 1 per 2 2016/03/07 SNU Sentula Mining Pay Date Rights Distribution 100 rights per 100 shares 2016/03/07 ORY Oryx Properties Ex Date Interest Payment ZAR0.775 per linked unit 2016/03/07 SMM Sable Metals and Minerals Suspended Name Change to Middle East Diamond Resources 2016/03/07 SNUN Sentula Mining Offer Opens Call on Rights (Take-up) 1 per 1 @ ZAR0.18 per share 2016/03/07 CRD Central Rand Meeting Date EGM 2016/03/09 SNUN Sentula Mining Response Deadline (Trading In Rights) 2016/03/09 HDC Hudaco Industries Meeting Date AGM 2016/03/10 ING Ingenuity Prop Inv Meeting Date GM Call on Rights (Take-up) 1 per 1 @ ZAR0.18 per share 2016/03/11 SNUN Sentula Mining Last Day To Trade Call on Rights (Take-up) 1 per 1 @ ZAR0.18 per share 2016/03/11 FGLN Finbond Group Election Deadline Date (08h00 SA Time) 2016/03/11 FGLN Finbond Group Market Deadline Date (13h00 SA Time) 2016/03/11 SYC Sycom Property Fund Meeting Date GM Call on Rights (Take-up) 1 per 1 @ ZAR3.34 per share Call on Rights (Take-up) 1 per 1 @ ZAR3.34 per share Disclaimer: The valuations, calculations, prices, opinions and all other information (the information ) contained in this document is issued by FNB Securities (Pty) Ltd (Reg no: 1996/011732/07) ( FNB Securities ) - a part of the FirstRand Group. An Authorised user of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and Financial Services Provider (FSP182). Whilst all care has been taken in the provision of the information in this document, this information is provided without liability to us, our affiliates or any officers or employees of ours. The information expressed in this document is done in good faith and is not intended to constitute any form of advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice. Some of the information may have been provided or sourced from third parties and we do not in any way guarantee its accuracy or correctness. At all times we will endeavour to ensure that information obtained from any third party is accurate and reliable. FNB Securities and its affiliates disclaims and assumes no liability for any loss or damage (direct, indirect or consequential) that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein. Investment in shares may cause exposure to certain risks, including market risk, and may therefore not be suitable for all clients. Please contact your relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. FNB Securities and its affiliates disclaims and assumes no liability for any loss or damage (direct, indirect or consequential) that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein without seeking professional advice. All rights in the FTSE/JSE Africa Index Series vest in the JSE and in FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) jointly. FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group of Companies ( LSE ). JSE is a trade mark of the JSE.