Changes in the Food and Nutrition Services Caseload in North Carolina January 2012 D. F. Duncan, III Jennifer S. Vaughn UNC-CH School of Social Work Chapel Hill, NC January 2012
Executive Summary Participation in North Carolina s Food and Nutrition Services (FNS) program continues to increase. This increase likely is due to continuing poor economic conditions as well as policy changes in July 2010 that expanded eligibility for program benefits. Enrollment rose sharply in April and May 2011 after tornadoes swept through the state in mid-april and 18 counties issued temporary benefits in the wake of the storms. Enrollment spiked again in September 2011 following Hurricane Irene, which came ashore August 27 and caused extensive flooding and damage in the eastern part of the state, prompting 35 counties to offer disaster assistance. Enrollment dropped in October but remains higher than pre-storm levels. In November 2011, 785,442 North Carolina households received FNS benefits totaling just under $204 million. November 2011, five of the state s 100 counties had nearly 1 in 3 residents that is, 30% or more of the population receiving FNS services. In another ten counties, between 25% and 30% of the population participated in the program. In the second half of 2010, the number of households participating in the program grew much more quickly than normal by 2% or more each month before slowing in early 2011. Policy changes that expanded eligibility for the program appear to account for about a quarter of this increase. The number of FNS families with incomes at or above the poverty level has risen each month since July 2010. This trend differs from the trend for families below the poverty level. The number of FNS participant families with incomes below the poverty level dropped in October 2011 following the hurricane-induced spike in September 2011 and remained flat in November. However, the number of participating families at 100 to 130% of FPL, as well as the number of families above 130% of the FPL, rose during both of those months. 2
Changes in the Food and Nutrition Services Caseload in North Carolina: January 2012 This report explores changes in the Food and Nutrition Services (FNS) caseload in North Carolina through November 2011. This analysis is based on data extracted from the Food Stamp Information System (FSIS). These extracts are used to construct and maintain a longitudinal file that tracks the experiences of those individuals who have participated in the FNS program in North Carolina. The analysis explores changes in the number of households participating in the program, changes in the number of case openings, information on households that are participating in the program for the first time, and changes in the number of households participating in the program in each county across the state. Number of participating households. The number of households participating in the FNS program grew by just under 200,000 from 585,473 to 785,442 between November 2009 and November 2011. The size of this increase is notable given that there were only 212,129 households participating in the program in November 2000. The two-year increase between 2009 and 2011 is almost equal to the total number of households participating in the program in 2000. Nearly half of these new households were added in the six months between June and December 2010 following policy changes that expanded eligibility for FNS benefits. Another large increase in participation occurred following a series of tornadoes that swept through the state on April 16, 2011, prompting 18 counties to offer disaster benefits to eligible households affected by the storm; the statewide caseload grew by more than 24,000 between March and May 2011. Participation also spiked in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene, which came ashore August 27 and caused extensive flooding and damage in eastern North Carolina, prompting 35 coastal and inland counties to offer temporary FNS assistance in early September. The statewide caseload grew by nearly 70,000 between August and September 2011. Enrollment dropped in October but remained higher than pre-hurricane levels. There was almost no increase in participation between October and November 2011. Figure One 1 illustrates the changes in the FNS caseload over time. In November 2009, there were 585,473 households in the FNS program. The caseload has grown in all but one of the months since then, but the amount of month-to-month growth has varied significantly. Between November 2009 and January 2010, the overall caseload increased by 16,347 households, an average of just under 8,200 cases each month. Between January and June 2010, the monthly rate of growth was approximately 4,850 households. On July 1, 2010, a new eligibility policy went into effect that expanded categorical eligibility, making households that meet certain requirements eligible to receive FNS benefits. 2 The result of this expansion was immediate. The FNS caseload grew from 626,081 in 1 Supporting data for Figures One through Five are included in the tables at the end of this report. 2 Prior to July 2010, only households where all members received either a Work First cash assistance payment or a Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payment were categorically eligible. On July 1, 2010, categorical eligibility was expanded to include households at or below 200% of the Federal Poverty Level where at least one household member was eligible to receive an available Work First Employment Service. 3
June to 644,699 in July an increase of 18,618 and jumped again in August, when it increased by 21,447 to 666,246. The caseload climbed to 681,534 in September and 709,139 in November 2010. 1 The Number of Households Participating in the Food and Nutrition Services Program in North Carolina 900,000 Figure 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - The expansion of categorical eligibility to add households with income up to 200% of the federal poverty level (FPL) who were eligible for an available Work First employment service appears to have resulted in the addition of 2,400 to 4,600 households each month from July 2010 to November 2010. During that five-month period, these newly eligible households accounted for about 24% of the increase in the size of the overall FNS caseload. The caseload continued to grow after that, but much more slowly. In December 2010, the caseload was 716,699, an increase of only 7,560 over the previous month. Between January and March 2011, the caseload increased by only 12,973, or an average of about 4,300 cases per month. On April 16, 2011, a series of tornadoes struck central and eastern North Carolina, killing 24 and destroying hundreds of homes and businesses. Eighteen counties 3 were declared disaster areas and implemented disaster FNS programs. According to figures announced by the North Carolina Division of Social Services in June, more than $7 million in emergency and supplemental FNS benefits were distributed in the 18 counties affected by the tornadoes. Approximately 11,641 new households (that is, households that had not been receiving FNS at the time of the disaster) received a total of $4,979,000, and more than 29,000 households received supplemental benefits totaling more than $2 million. More than 4,300 households applied for disaster FNS benefits but were denied. 3 The following 18 counties implemented disaster FNS programs following the tornadoes on April 16, 2011: Bertie, Bladen, Craven, Cumberland, Currituck, Greene, Halifax, Harnett, Hertford, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Onslow, Pitt, Robeson, Sampson, Wake, and Wilson. 4
Participation statewide increased dramatically during those months, rising by more than 24,000 households between March and May 2011. The statewide FNS caseload in May 2011 was 753,750. There were less than 1,000 new households in June, but the number of households began to creep up again during the summer months. Then, on August 27, Hurricane Irene struck the eastern third of the state, causing extensive flooding and damage and prompting 35 coastal and inland counties to offer disaster FNS assistance. According to figures released by the state Division of Social Services, more than $37 million in emergency and supplemental FNS benefits were distributed to 121,407 households in the affected counties. 4 That assistance is reflected in the September FNS participation total of 839,658 households. Enrollment dropped in October but remained higher than pre-hurricane levels. There was almost no increase in participation between October and November 2011. Percentage increase in FNS participation over time. These numbers can be better placed in context by examining the percentage increase in FNS participation over time. Figure Two shows this percentage increase from November 2009 through November 2011. In November 2009, the rate of increase was 1.7%. This rate fell over the next few months though there was a slight rebound in January and by February 2010, it had dropped to 0.6%. The rate climbed a bit during the spring months of 2010, and in June 2010 it was a modest 1.2%. With the expansion 12% The Percentage Increase in the Number of Households in the Food and Nutrition Services Program in North Carolina 2Figure 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 4 The following 35 counties implemented disaster FNS assistance following Hurricane Irene: Beaufort, Bertie, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Currituck, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Edgecombe, Gates, Greene, Halifax, Hertford, Hyde, Johnston, Jones, Lenoir, Martin, Nash, New Hanover, Northampton, Onslow, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Pender, Perquimans, Pitt, Tyrrell, Vance, Warren, Washington, Wayne, and Wilson. 5
of categorical eligibility in July 2010, the rate of increase jumped to 3.0% in July and rose to 3.3% in August before it began to fall. In November 2010, the rate was 2.0%, and by January 2011 it had fallen to 0.5% before rising slightly to 0.6% in February and March 2011. The tornadoes in April 2011 caused the rate of increase to jump to 1.2% that month and 2.1% in May. The rate fell to 0.1% in June before rebounding to 0.6% in July and 1.2% in August. In September 2011, the caseload spiked after Hurricane Irene, resulting in a 9.2% rate of increase in FNS participation. Not surprisingly, the following month saw a drop in participation the first decrease since March 2007. In November 2011, the rate of increase was 0.3%. First-time case openings. Case openings are important in understanding changes in the size of the caseload. The caseload in any given month is equal to the caseload from the prior month minus the number of cases that closed plus the number of cases that were opened. Case openings can be divided into cases for families who are new to the program and those who had left the program in an earlier month and are now returning to the program. Figure Three illustrates the percentage of case openings associated with households that are new to the program. Between November 2009 and November 2011, that percentage hovered in the low- to mid-40-percentrange except for a two-month period following a natural disaster. In November 2009, the percentage of these new households was just under 44%, and it rose to 45% in December 2009 and 46% and in January and February 2010. In March 2010, it dropped to 43% and hovered there through June, when it fell to 41%. In July 2010, the number dropped to 40% before rising to 43% in August. In September 2010, 45% of the case openings were households that had never participated in the FNS program before. The percentage of new households continued at that level in October, dipped slighly to 44% in November, and then rebounded in December 2010 to 45%, where it remained through February 2011. In March 2011, the percentage dipped to 43%. 3 The Percentage of Case Openings That Represent Households Entering the Food and Nutrition Services Program For the First Time 100% Figure 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6
Following the April 2011 tornadoes, the percentage of new households jumped to 47% in April 2011 and 55% in May 2011 before falling to 44% in June and 43% in July and August. Following Hurricane Irene, the percentage of new households rose to 81% in September before falling back to 44% in October and 43% in November 2011. Income level of FNS households. Figure Four illustrates the breakdown of households participating in the program from November 2009 through November 2011 by income. Income is divided into three categories: 1) at or below the federal poverty level (FPL) 5 ; 2) between 100% and 130% of the FPL; and 3) more than 130% of the FPL. Generally, households participating in the FNS program must have gross income at or below 130% of the FPL. One exception to this limit is households which are categorically eligible. Another exception involves disabled individuals age 60 and older and their spouses who live with others but are unable to purchase and prepare their own meals. The gross income limit for these households containing a disabled older person is 165% of the FPL. The Breakdown of Participating Households by Poverty Status 900,000 800,000 4Figure 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Families At or Below Poverty Level Families Between Poverty Level and 130% of Poverty Level Families with Income Above 130% of the Poverty Level Even though the number of households participating in the program has increased in recent years, the proportion of participating households with income between 100% and 130% of the FPL remained fairly stable between 6% and 7% of the overall FNS population until July 2010, when it began to rise. This percentage surpassed 10% in December 2010, when 72,938 FNS households had incomes between 100% and 130% of the FPL, out of a total of 716,699. In November 2011, there were 82,902 households with income between 100% and 130% of the FPL, about 10.5% of all FNS households. Similarly, the percentage of households whose income is above 130% of the FPL has increased substantially since categorical eligibility was expanded. 5 The federal poverty level is based on the Federal Poverty Guidelines issued by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) each year. The most recent guidelines can be found at http://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty/index.shtml. 7
In June 2010, only 4,514 households whose income exceeded 130% of the FPL received FNS program benefits. That number increased to 6,922 in July 2010; by September of that year, 15,503 households with income above 130% of the FPL participated in the FNS program. The number of these households grew to 21,757 in November 2010 and to 24,346 in December 2010. Growth slowed during the first five months of 2011, rising by only 1,987 cases during that time, before accelerating again during the summer and autumn months. Between May and November, the caseload grew by an average of 986 cases per month. In November 2011, the number of FNS households with income above 130% was 32,247. Although families with incomes at or above the poverty level still account for a relatively small percentage of the FNS caseload about 15% in November 2011 this population is rising at a faster rate than the overall caseload. This was especially true during the fall months of 2011. In October 2011, the number of FNS participant families with incomes below the poverty level dropped following the hurricane-induced spike in September 2011, and that number remained flat in November. However, the number of participating families at 100 to 130% of FPL, as well as the number of families above 130% of the FPL, rose substantially during both of those months. Amount of FNS benefits distributed. Figure Five indicates the dollar amount of Food and Nutrition Services benefits that were distributed each month between November 2009 and November 2011 in North Carolina. In November 2009, more than $166.7 million in benefits were issued to North Carolina households. Since then, that amount has risen by 22% to just under $203.8 million in November 2011. Distribution totals in August and September 2011 were far higher, mostly in response to Hurricane Irene. More than $220 million in benefits was distributed Figure 5The Amount of Food and Nutrition Services Benefits Issued Each Month $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $0 8
in August; in September, the total was just under $229.4 million. A portion of the August and September totals is replacement benefits to households who were participating in the program when the hurricane struck. Replacement benefits can be issued as the result of a disaster or other household misfortune. The household may receive a replacement issuance of up to the value of one month s allotment. Percentage of county population receiving FNS program benefits. Figure Six illustrates the estimated percentage of each county s population that receives FNS program benefits. This percentage is determined by dividing the number of individuals receiving benefits in November 2011 by the county s population according to the 2010 Census. Population information was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the figure indicates, in three counties, less than 10% of the population participated in the FNS program. In about one in six counties 16 the percentage of the population that participated in the FNS program was between 10% and 15%. In nearly two out of five counties 38 the percentage of the estimated population that participated in the FNS program ranged between 15% and 20%. In 28 counties, the percentage of the population that participated in the FNS program ranged from 20% to 25%. In ten counties, between 25% and 30% of the population participated in the FNS program. In five counties, more than 30% of the population participated in the FNS program. Percentage of County Population Receiving Benefits through the Food and Nutrition Services Program in November 2011 6Figure 9
In Robeson County, for example, where an estimated 35% of the population participated in the FNS program, there were 46,966 individuals receiving benefits in November 2011. The county s population according to the 2010 Census was 134,168. The November participation rate for Vance County was 34%; among its population of 45,422, a total of 15,557 individuals participated in the FNS program that month. Participation rates were 33% in Scotland, Edgecombe, and Halifax counties. Many of the counties where more than 30% of the population participated are among the counties with the highest percentage of poverty in the state. According to 2010 poverty estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program, nearly 32% of the residents of Robeson County were in poverty. Just over 27% of the residents of Scotland County lived in poverty, as did 26% of the residents of Halifax County. In Edgecombe County, almost 25% of the population lived in poverty in 2010. However, several counties with high percentages of poverty had lower rates of FNS participation than their poverty estimates would indicate. For example, nearly 29% of Tyrell County residents live in poverty, according to the SAIPE estimates the second highest percentage in the state, behind only Robeson but only about 22% participate in FNS. Similarly, just under 25% of Watauga County residents live in poverty, but only 8% of that county s residents participate in FNS. Figure Seven shows the 35 counties that implemented emergency FNS assistance following Hurricane Irene on August 27, 2011. Figure 7 Counties that Implemented Emergency FNS Assistance as a Result of Hurricane Irene 10
Summary This report provides a snapshot of North Carolina s FNS caseload in November 2011. Participation in the program continues to grow in the wake of a continued global recession, policy changes that expanded eligibility for benefits, and natural disasters in April and August 2011. In November 2011, more than 785,000 households participated in the program, receiving just under $204 million in benefits. Following the expansion of categorical eligibility in July 2010, there was a noticeable increase in participation. The caseload increased by around 2% each month between July and November 2010; about a quarter of the growth during that period appears to be attributable to households that entered the program as the result of the expanded categorical eligibility. Between December 2010 and March 2011, the caseload continued to rise but at a much slower rate. The caseload increased substantially in April and May 2011 following a series of tornadoes that swept through the state April 16. These numbers leveled off during the summer months but rose again in August and September in the wake of Hurricane Irene, which caused widespread damage in the eastern part of the state. FNS participation fell in October but remained higher than pre-hurricane levels, and stayed steady in November. In five counties, more than 30% of the population, based on the 2010 U.S. Census, participated in the FNS program in November 2011. In another ten counties, between 25% and 30% of the population received FNS benefits. This research is funded through a contract with the North Carolina Division of Social Services. The views expressed are those of the authors. Any errors are due to the interpretation of the analysis of the data are the authors alone. Additional information on participation in the Food and Nutrition Services Program at the state or county level is available through the Management Assistance for Child Welfare, Work First, and Food and Nutrition Services website, http://ssw.unc.edu/ma/. This report was designed by Rea Gibson of the UNC-CH School of Social Work. 11
1Number of Households Participating in FNS Program in North Carolina Table Figure 1 Nov-09 585,473 Dec-09 592,359 Jan-10 601,820 Feb-10 605,251 Mar-10 609,307 Apr-10 613,473 May-10 618,767 Jun-10 626,081 Jul-10 644,699 Aug-10 666,246 Sep-10 681,534 Oct-10 695,353 Nov-10 709,139 Dec-10 716,699 Jan-11 720,438 Feb-11 724,950 Mar-11 729,692 Apr-11 738,216 May-11 753,754 Jun-11 754,703 Jul-11 759,649 Aug-11 768,695 Sep-11 839,658 Oct-11 782,904 Nov-11 785,442 Percentage Increase in Number of FNS Households in North Carolina Nov-09 1.7% Dec-09 1.2% Jan-10 1.6% Feb-10 0.6% Mar-10 0.7% Apr-10 0.7% May-10 0.9% Jun-10 1.2% Jul-10 3.0% Aug-10 3.3% Sep-10 2.3% Oct-10 2.0% Nov-10 2.0% Dec-10 1.1% Jan-11 0.5% Feb-11 0.6% Mar-11 0.7% Apr-11 1.2% May-11 2.1% Jun-11 0.1% Jul-11 0.7% Aug-11 1.2% Sep-11 9.2% Oct-11-6.8% Nov-11 0.3% 2 Table Figure 2 Table 3 Figure 3 Percentage of Case Openings Entering FNS Program for the First Time Nov-09 43.7% Aug-10 43.3% May-11 55.4% Dec-09 44.7% Sep-10 45.3% Jun-11 43.5% Jan-10 45.7% Oct-10 45.0% Jul-11 43.2% Feb-10 45.8% Nov-10 43.9% Aug-11 43.9% Mar-10 42.8% Dec-10 45.0% Sep-11 81.1% Apr-10 43.2% Jan-11 45.4% Oct-11 43.7% May-10 42.8% Feb-11 44.9% Nov-11 42.9% Jun-10 41.1% Mar-11 43.1% Jul-10 40.4% Apr-11 47.0% 12
Table 4 Figure 4 Breakdown of Participating Households by Poverty Status Families At or Below Poverty Level Number of Cases Families Between Poverty Level and 130% of Poverty Level Families with Income Above 130% of Poverty Level Unable to Determine Nov-09 545,931 35,843 3,615 84 Dec-09 552,089 36,540 3,636 94 Jan-10 560,428 37,565 3,715 112 Feb-10 562,484 38,847 3,837 83 Mar-10 565,322 39,822 4,039 124 Apr-10 568,923 40,324 4,127 99 May-10 573,792 40,746 4,168 61 Jun-10 579,999 41,484 4,514 84 Jul-10 590,724 46,985 6,922 68 Aug-10 600,791 53,821 11,568 66 Sep-10 606,134 59,841 15,503 56 Oct-10 612,009 64,810 18,484 50 Nov-10 617,969 69,373 21,757 40 Dec-10 619,376 72,938 24,346 39 Jan-11 622,660 73,186 24,550 42 Feb-11 628,440 71,998 24,461 51 Mar-11 631,999 72,411 25,220 62 Apr-11 639,615 72,744 25,697 160 May-11 653,126 73,807 26,333 488 Jun-11 652,247 74,914 27,486 56 Jul-11 656,451 75,430 27,704 64 Aug-11 662,622 77,234 28,762 77 Sep-11 729,156 79,178 29,632 1,692 Oct-11 670,018 81,598 31,242 46 Nov-11 670,248 82,902 32,247 45 Table 5 Figure 5 Amount of FNS Benefits Distributed Each Month Nov-09 $ 166,771,418 Dec-09 $ 168,425,663 Jan-10 $ 169,184,358 Feb-10 $ 170,690,214 Mar-10 $ 170,907,939 Apr-10 $ 171,903,952 May-10 $ 173,339,215 Jun-10 $ 175,164,992 Jul-10 $ 178,873,554 Aug-10 $ 183,466,233 Sep-10 $ 185,103,634 Oct-10 $ 187,071,928 Nov-10 $ 189,660,179 Dec-10 $ 190,105,501 Jan-11 $ 188,794,386 Feb-11 $ 190,571,529 Mar-11 $ 190,939,526 Apr-11 $ 198,415,373 May-11 $ 199,554,381 Jun-11 $ 198,187,709 Jul-11 $ 199,323,861 Aug-11 $ 220,058,366 Sep-11 $ 229,357,413 Oct-11 $ 203,609,094 Nov-11 $ 203,783,231 13