ECONOMIC NEWS and create jobs in May #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS GRAPH ff created 14,9 new jobs in May. Job growth in and has been comparable for the past two years, despite the differences in getting here ff At 6% a record not seen since 1976 all eyes are on the unemployment rate. We should temper our enthusiasm, however, considering that the drop compared to one month earlier is.6%, identical to the April decline in, which recorded a.7% uptick in May. ff also saw its employment rise by 19,9 new jobs last month. ff The unemployment rate in rose from 5.8% to %. May = 1 13. 12.5 12. 11.5 11. 1.5 1. 99.5 99. 217 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies COMMENTS In May, the gains recorded in were mostly in full-time jobs (+29,8), to the detriment of part-time jobs (-14,9). The transportation and warehousing sectors (+9,6), professional, scientific and technical services (+6,8), healthcare and social assistance (+6,5) stand out. Is this improvement in the labour market a reflection of the favourable turn in s position in recent months? The high level of confidence in households and SMEs, higher retail sales and the faster pace in the residential sector are all signs of a booming economy. With regard to the marked drop in the unemployment rate, we may be next in line for a short-term correction similar to what experienced. The 19,9 new workers in is good news, especially compared to the tally of previous months (: -11,2 and April: -1,6). Statistics reported gains for both full-time (+1,) and part-time jobs (+9,7). The wholesale sector and retail sectors posted the largest advance (+31,9), followed by professional, scientific and technical services (+18,8) and manufacturing (+14,1). That small business confidence in is still high is worth noting. Looking back to May, we note that the labour market has evolved differently in than in, but both are comparable in terms of advances (graphic). Job growth in and has reached 2.4% for the past two years. IMPLICATIONS Will the economies in and continue to rack up job gains in the next few quarters? The signs are more positive than negative at the moment. That said, advances may be curtailed by a less favourable economic backdrop due to a slowdown in commercial trade (rising protectionism) or a shortage of workers. Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist Desjardins, Economic Studies: 418-835-245 or 1 866-835-8444, ext. 556245 desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright 217, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.
Labour market reference tables TABLE 1 Variation by sector May 217 Prof., scientific and technical services Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Wholesale and retail trade 25,9 25,3 17,1 15,2 49,7 32,9 4,2 74,3 Transportation and warehousing Prof., scientific and technical services Health care and social assistance Accommodation and food services 9,6 6,8 6,5 6,3 Wholesale and retail trade Prof., scientific and technical services Manufacturing Health care and social assistance 31,9 18,8 14,1 11,9 GAINING SECTORS Finance, insurance, real estate Information, culture and recreation Public administration Agriculture -17,4-15,8-12,3-3,5 38,1-2, 25,9-15,8 15,6 9,2-9,1-2,4 Wholesale and retail trade Information, culture and recreation Business services Finance, insurance, real estate -7,9-2,6 19,3 14,4-12, 19,6 39,9 42,5 23,9 41,9 Finance, insurance, real estate Business services Public administration Information, culture and recreation -19,5-12, -9,1-8,3-9,7-1,6 7,4-22, LOSING SECTORS Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" TABLE 2 By sector NUMBER OF JOBS May 217 3 months Dec. (%) 18,365,7 4,25, 7,86,9 54,5 14,9 19,9 77,1 13,5 7,1 14,7 5,8 4,5 316,8 83,3 86, 2. 1.2 Public sector employees 3,75,8 916,2 1,333,2 9,2 11,2 8 31,7 9,4 13,4 32,6-5,3 12,9 76,5 27,7 17,1 2.1 3.1 1.3 Private sector employees 11,885,6 2,742,7 4,65,8 59,4 11,8 28,6 22,6 4-26,6 71,7 14,5 7,2 213,4 65,2 48, 2.4 1. 2,774,4 546, 1,12,8-14, -8,3-9,6 22,9 3,6 2,2 36,4-3,5 2,3 27, -9,6 2,8 1. -1.7 1.9 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Self-employed Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 2
TABLE 3 Recent trends SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA EMPLOYMENT LABOUR FORCE RATE (%) Numbers 3 months Numbers * Part. Empl. Unempl. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 217 Feb. 217 217 April 217 May 217 18,48,9 18,6,2 18,34,3 18,69,8 18,134,4 18,181,3 18,178,9 18,225, 18,273,3 18,288,6 18,38, 18,311,2 18,365,7 13,4 11,3-25,9 35,5 64,6 46,9-2,4 46,1 48,3 15,3 19,4 3,2 54,5 48,4 28,6-1,2 2,9 74,2 147, 19,1 9,6 92, 19,7 83, 37,9 77,1 13,3 19,3 65,3 84,3 153,1 165, 197,1 229, 276,1 288,1 276,4 275,7 316,8 19,394,1 19,384,3 19,382,4 19,433,3 19,495,2 19,546,3 19,55,1 19,566,6 19,597,7 19,574,7 19,621,7 19,576,2 19,654,6-17,5-9,8-1,9 5,9 61,9 51,1-41,2 61,5 31,1-23, 47, -45,5 78,4 65.6 6 6 65.6 65.7 65.9 65.7 65.8 65.9 65.8 65.9 65.6 65.8 61.1 61.1 6.9 61. 61.1 61.3 61.2 61.3 61.4 61.4 61.5 61.4 61.5 May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 217 Feb. 217 217 April 217 May 217 4,121,7 4,111,6 4,113,7 4,138,7 4,17,9 4,176,3 4,18,9 4,199,2 4,22,6 4,191,5 4,193,9 4,19,1 4,25, 19,6-1,1 2,1 25, 32,2 5,4 4,6 18,3 3,4-11,1 2,4 14,9 13,2 14,3 11,6 17, 59,3 62,6 42,2 28,3 26,3 1,6-5,3-12,5 13,5 15,8 33, 9,6 4, 69,8 78,5 87,6 9,8 97,1 83, 96,6 88, 83,3 4,433,2 4,418,3 4,424,1 4,451,7 4,478,2 4,476,7 4,456,6 4,493,3 4,482,1 4,478,2 4,479,4 4,484,6 4,472,2 1,4-14,9 5,8 27,6 26,5-1,5-2,1 36,7-11,2-3,9 1,2 5,2-12,4 64.4 64.2 64.2 64.5 64.5 65.1 64.6 59.9 59.7 59.7 6. 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.7 May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 217 Feb. 217 217 April 217 May 217 7,,9 7,5,7 6,968,4 6,983,7 7,2,6 7,28,1 7,4, 7,46,4 7,75,2 7,79,8 7,68,6 7,67, 7,86,9 2,5 4,8-37,3 15,3 18,9 25,5 11,9 6,4 28,8 4,6-11,2-1,6 19,9 28,6 23,4-12, -17,2-3,1 59,7 56,3 43,8 47,1 39,8 22,2-8,2 7,1 77,3 64,2 2,4 36,5 85,1 88,2 17,3 83,6 9,1 17,5 86,3 86,6 86, 7,491,8 7,48, 7,45, 7,486, 7,492,5 7,59,2 7,58, 7,525,6 7,559,9 7,549, 7,551,2 7,54,4 7,576,5-8,5-11,8-3, 36, 6,5 16,7-1,2 17,6 34,3-1,9 2,2-46,8 72,1 65.1 65. 64.6 65.1 65. 64.5 65. 6.9 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 61. 61. 6.7 5.8 Part.: Participation; Empl.: Employment; Unempl.: Unemployment; * Variation over a month. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 3
TABLE 4 Other labour market indicators LAST PUBLICATION PREVIOUS DATA SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Month Level - -3 months -6 months - Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1,12.72 29.9 1,11.78 29.9 1,112.49 3.2 1,89.36 3.2 1,94.11 3.4 Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1,19.31 3.1 1,24.16 3.2 1,39.79 3.3 1,4.79 3.2 1,37.88 3. Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1,149.92 29.7 1,143.95 29.8 1,143.5 3.3 1,111.48 3.2 1,117 3.4 Source: Statistics 's "Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours" TABLE 5 Annual data ANNUAL AVERAGES 211 212 213 214 Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 17,221, 256,7 1.5 7.5 17,438, 217, 1.3 7.3 17,691,1 253,1 1.5 7.1 17,82,2 111,1.6 17,946,6 144,4.8 18,79,9 133,3.7 Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 3,975,6 37,7 1. 4,5,9 3,3.8 7.7 4,6,8 54,9 1.4 7.6 4,59,7-1,1. 7.7 4,97, 37,3.9 7.6 4,133,1 36,1.9 7.1 Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 6,658,4 12,6 6,72,6 44,2.7 6,823,4 12,8 7.6 6,877,9 54,5.8 7.3 6,923,2 45,3.7 6,999,6 76,4 1.1 Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 4
CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO QUEBEC ONTARIO Unemployment Rate Level of employment 4,25 4,1 3,95 3,8 3,65 In % 7,1 1 6,95 9 6,8 8 6,65 7 6,5 6 6,35 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 217 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 217 (left) (right) Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Participation Rate Employment Rate In % In % 68 64 63 67 62 66 61 6 65 59 64 58 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 217 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 217 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies UNITED STATES CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA Employment Index Evolution of employment February 21 = 1 125 125 1 75 5 25-25 -5-75 -1-125 12 115 11 15 1 95 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 217 United States 212 213 214 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies QUEBEC ONTARIO Evolution of employment Evolution of employment 4 217 217 5 3 25 2 1-25 -1-5 -2-75 -3-4 -1 212 213 214 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies 217 212 213 214 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies 5
TABLE 6 By province May 217 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia PREVIOUS MONTHS ACTUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES EMPLOYMENT April 217 217 Feb. 217 3 months 6 months Since 1 year 18,365,7 18,311,2 18,38, 18,288,6 18,328,3 18,295,3 18,22,558 18,48,9 54,5 3,2 19,4 15,3 25,7 31,133 26,4 316,8 * 225,7 227,4 225,5 225,5 226,2 226,75 229,525 238,1-1,7 14.8 1,9 14. 14.9 14.2 67 14.6-383 14.5-1,33 14. -12,4-5.2* 75, 73,5 72,7 73, 73,733 73,167 72,283 71,6 1,5 1. 8 1.3-3 1.1 3 1. 667 1.1 583 1.1 283 1.5 3,4 4.7* 45,2 45, 45,5 445,9 45,233 449,633 447,7 445,2 2-5 4,6 8.6-6,8 8.1 1,433 35 8.2 417 8.1 5, 1.1* 352,3 351,6 353,6 351,9 352,5 352,7 353,242 349,2 7-2, 8.7 1,7 8.9 133 8.5-35 8.8 258 9.1 3,1.9* 4,25, 4,19,1 4,193,9 4,191,5 4,196,333 4,197,5 4,172,867 4,121,7 14,9 2,4-11,1 4,5 4,17 6,942 83,3 2.* 7,86,9 7,67, 7,68,6 7,79,8 7,74,167 7,7,65 7,37,7 7,,9 19,9-1,6 5.8-11,2 4,6 2,367 7,817 7,167 86, 1.2* 642,7 64, 64,5 637,7 641,67 638,33 635,917 635,7 2,7 5.3-5 5.4 2,8 3,4 5.8 1,667 5.4 1,8 5.7 583 7, 1.1* 57,3 568,2 57,4 575,5 569,633 57,17 569,458 568,7 2,1-2,2-5,1 8, -1,733 217 133 1,6.3* 2,291,1 2,289, 2,289,3 2,268,9 2,289,8 2,278,883 2,268,942 2,25,4 2,1 7.8-3 2,4 1,3 7,4 8. 4,9 3,392 4,7 * 2,466,6 2,454,3 2,443, 2,438,8 2,454,633 2,438,383 2,414,9 2,367,4 12,3 5.6 11,3 4,2 5.4 19,4 5.1 9,267 12,2 8,267 5.7 99,2 4.2* Unempl.: Unemployement; * Variation in employment over a year. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 6