FOCUS XXX Company Update XX XXXXX 213 FOCUS Ciputra Development Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Liliana S Bambang +6221 5296 9465 liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat +6221 5296 9415 rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Sector : Property NEUTRAL Current Price Rp1,475 Price Target Rp1,35 (-8.5%) Prev. PT:Rp88 52-wk range Rp1,54 - Rp8 Stock Data Bloomberg Code CTRA IJ Mkt.Cap (Rp bn/us$ mn) 22,37 / 1,795 Issued Shares (mn) 15,166 Avg. Daily T/O (Rp bn/us$ mn) 2.2/1.6 Major shareholder Pt Sang Pelopor 3.6% Credit Suisse, Singapore 8.1% Public 61.3% EPS consensus Mansek Cons Diff 214F 76.1 78.2 (2.7) 215F 94.7 95. (.4) 216F 12.6 17.9 (4.9) Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) 32.9 18. 68.6 Relative to JCI (%) 28.6 13.5 5.2 Moving target? CTRA accomplished marketing sales of Rp8.6tn for FY14F, a slight decline compared to last year s target of Rpp8.9tn. Further details yet to be released for FY15F marketing sales, but the company is looking for 1-15% marketing sales growth. We maintain our Neutral recommendation for CTRA. Looking for 1-15% growth. Last year, CTRA accomplished marketing sales of Rp8.6tn, after revision. In FY14, around 8% of CTRA s marketing sales are contributed from Java projects versus 6% in FY13. Weakness of sales on outside of Java, in our view is due to commodities, slightly weak realization of budget spending, and a more aggressive tax investigation on property purchase. Official target is yet to be released, but CTRA is aiming for 1-15% marketing sales growth for FY15F. Can they meet this year s target? CTRA plans to release its FY15F marketing sales target in early February. We would look for breakdown between Java and outside of Java. We would start worrying on this year s target if there is a chunk of marketing sales which is focused on outside of Java Island. We are more confident on property demand in Java Island compared to outside of Java. We are also worried on CTRP s marketing sales target. Despite the strong accomplishment of Ciputra Puri (booking Rp828bn, triple the initial target of Rp276bn), we are not too confident on property demand for Ciputra World Jakarta. CTRP plans to issue Sing dollar bond. To fund its project capex for next year (which is estimated to be around Rp3tn), CTRP plans to issue around 2mn of Sing dollar bond. Based on recent bond issuance, CTRP could get a rate between 4.5-5.5%. Our number currently has not priced in the bond issuance. Maintain our Neutral recommendation. At this juncture, we maintain our Neutral recommendation with new PT of Rp1,35 (based on 4% discount to NAV). We attached lower discount to NAV compared to peers of 5%, as we favor its JV & JO structure, which allows the company to expand without incurring much landbanking capex. Our PT implies FY16F P/E of 14.5x. FINANCIAL SUMMARY EBITDA 955 1,553 1,912 2,297 2,483 Net Profit 59 977 1,155 1,436 1,557 Fully-diluted EPS (Rp) 39 64 76 95 13 Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) 81.6 65.6 18.2 24.4 8.4 P/E Ratio (x) 37.9 22.9 19.4 15.6 14.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 25.1 16.1 14.1 11.5 1.4 P/B Ratio (x) 4. 3.5 3. 2.6 2.3 Dividend Yield (%).8.9.9 1. 1.3 ROAE (%) 11. 16.3 16.8 18.1 17. Source: Company (212-213), Mandiri Sekuritas (214-216) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 6
FIGURE 1. SALES BREAKDOWN FY15F Shopping Mall 7% Hotel 2% Other Recurring 7% CTRA - At a Glance FIGURE 2. GROSS PROFIT BREAKDOWN FY15F Shopping Mall 1% Other Recurring Hotel 8% 3% Apartment 13% Landed 7% Apartment 14% Landed 65% FIGURE 3. MARKETING SALES GROWTH FORECAST Rp bn 12, FIGURE 4. MARKETING SALES BREAKDOWN, 215F 1, 8, 7,239 8,941 8,555 9,62 CTRP (CWJ) 17% 6, 4, 2, 3,564 CTRS 21% CTRA 62% - 211A 212A 213A 214A 215F FIGURE 5. EPS GROWTH TREND FIGURE 6. LEVERAGE TREND (Rp) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 (%) 12 1 8 6 4 2 (2) (%) 1 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (x) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 EPS EPS Growth [RHS] Net Debt/Equity (NDE) Interest Cover [RHS] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 6
FIGURE 7. CTRA NAV BREAKDOWN Ciputra Surya Sub Total NAV 16,41 Effectiv e ow nership of Ciputra Dev elopment 62.7% Net Asset Value (Ciputra Dev elopment) 1,284 Citra Garden City Jakarta Commercial Size (ha) 68 29 98 Dev eloped Land Equiv alent (ha) 41 18 59 Av erage Selling Price (Rp/sqm) 12,, 2,, Indicativ e Value (Rp B) 5,84 2,899 7,983 Citra Raya Tangerang Commercial - Size (ha) 469 24 672 Dev eloped Land Equiv alent (ha) 281 122 43 Av erage Selling Price (Rp/sqm) 1,912,5 4,, Indicativ e Value (Rp B) 4,376 3,541 7,917 Citra Indah Jonggol Commercial - Size (ha) 159 68 227 Dev eloped Land Equiv alent (ha) 95 41 136 Av erage Selling Price (Rp/sqm) 1,12, 1,5, Indicativ e Value (Rp B) 534 398 932 Price Indicative % % CTRA NAV of Ciputra Property Size (ha) (Rp/Sqm) % Sold value (Rp B) ownership ownership Ciputra World Jakarta Lot 3-5 5.5 45,, 75% 619 87.75% 51.89% 282 Ciputra World Jakarta Lot 6 1.4 45,, - 63 99.71% 51.89% 326 Ciputra World Jakarta Lot 11 3. 45,, - 1,35 99.84% 51.89% 699 Ex tension Ciputra World 1.4 25,, 35 99.84% 51.89% 181 Rosew ood tanah Bali 36. 4,, 1,44 6.% 51.89% 448 Rosew ood tanah Bali 44. 4,, 1,76 6.% 51.89% 548 Puri 7.2 15,, 1,8 55.% 51.89% 38 Sub Total CTRP 99 2,793 Cash & ST Inv estment 3,18 Debt (2,5) Adv ance from customers (4,497) Net Asset Value Indicative value (Rp B) % ownership Operating Assets 3,99 51.89% 2,28 JV assets 5,833 Total NAV 33,881 NAV per share 2,234 Discount 4% PT 1,34 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 6
FIGURE 8. CTRS NAV BREAKDOWN Gross landbank (ha) Net landbank (ha) ASP (Rp mn/sqm) Net ASP (Rp mn/sqm) NAV (Rp bn) Citraland Surabaya 228 137 96 9. 6.7 6,416 Commercial 41 13. 9.9 4,63 Citraland Utara 2 12 84 4.5 3.1 2,64 Commercial 36 6. 4.3 1,548 Citraharmoni Sidoarjo 28 17 12 2.7 1.7 192 Commercial 5 3. 1.9 94 Citragarden Sidoarjo 3 2 1 3.3 2.1 27 Commercial 1 4. 2.7 15 JO projects value 942 Total NAV of property development 15,92 Total NAV of investment properties 499 NAV 16,41 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 6
Ciputra Development Profit & Loss Revenue 3,323 5,77 7,26 8,94 8,529 Gross Profit 1,667 2,546 3,253 3,745 3,997 Oper. Profit 955 1,553 1,912 2,297 2,483 EBITDA 955 1,553 1,912 2,297 2,483 Net Interest 47 53 (58) (57) (57) Interest Expense (55) (117) (131) (126) (126) Interest Income 12 17 72 69 69 Forex Losses/Gains 8 48 Net Other 21 56 39 39 44 Pre-Tax Profit 1,3 1,79 1,893 2,279 2,471 Income Tax (18) (296) (41) (47) (496) Others Minority Interests (26) (437) (328) (374) (418) Net Profit 59 977 1,155 1,436 1,557 Cash Flow Operating Profit 955 1,553 1,912 2,297 2,483 Net Interest 47 53 (58) (57) (57) Depr & Amort Other expenses/income 21 56 39 39 39 Other Gain / Loss (225) Tax (18) (296) (41) (47) (496) Chg in Working Capital 1,11 2,9 (2,75) 65 242 Other Oper. Cash Flow (213) (1,56) 2,188 23 9 Oper. Cash Flow 1,56 3,29 965 2,437 2,225 Capital Expenditure (1,826) (3,657) (2,324) (1,292) (913) FCF (OPCF after Capex) (321) (448) (1,358) 1,146 1,313 Other Investing CF 223 95 CF From Investing (1,63) (3,561) (2,324) (1,292) (913) Net Chg in Debts 669 1,257 272 Equity Funds Raised (32) (2) Dividend (171) (195) (195) (231) (287) Other Financing CF CF From Financing 466 1,6 77 (231) (287) Non-Recur. Inc (Exp) 8 48 Extraord. Inc(Exp) Net Change in Cash 376 755 (1,282) 915 1,25 Cash at beginning 2,371 2,747 3,475 2,193 3,18 Cash at End 2,747 3,52 2,193 3,18 4,133 Valuation YE Dec 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F Balance Sheet Cash & ST Investment 2,747 3,475 2,193 3,18 4,133 Acct. Receivable 581 723 536 68 647 Inventory 3,31 4,892 8,367 9,471 9,933 Others 566 4 586 674 711 Current Assets 7,24 9,13 11,681 13,862 15,423 Investments Fixed Assets 4,42 5,331 3,942 3,874 4,53 Others 3,4 5,654 3,949 4,245 4,54 Total Assets 15,24 2,115 19,572 21,981 24,16 Curr. Liabilities 238 1,2 436 52 529 Acct. Payable 199 1,134 348 4 422 ST Borrowings Others 39 66 88 12 17 Long-Term Liabilities Long-Term Payable 1,471 2,728 3, 3, 3, Others 4,834 6,421 5,83 5,847 6,168 Total Liabilities 6,543 1,349 8,52 9,35 9,697 Shareholder s Equity 8,481 9,766 11,53 12,631 14,319 Key Ratios YE Dec 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F Growth (% YoY) Sales 52.5 52.8 38.4 15.2 5.4 EBIT 91.1 62.7 23.1 2.1 8.1 EBITDA 91.1 62.7 23.1 2.1 8.1 Net Profit 81.6 65.6 18.2 24.4 8.4 Profitability (%) Gross Profit Margin 5.2 5.2 46.3 46.3 46.9 Oper. Margin 28.7 3.6 27.2 28.4 29.1 EBITDA Margin 28.7 3.6 27.2 28.4 29.1 Net Margin 17.7 19.2 16.4 17.7 18.3 ROAA 4.4 5.6 5.8 6.9 6.8 ROAE 11. 16.3 16.8 18.1 17. Leverage Net Debt / Equity (%) (15.) (7.6) 7.3 (.9) (7.9) EBITDA/Gross Int. (x) 17.4 13.3 14.6 18.2 19.7 Per Share Data (Rp) EPS 39 64 76 95 13 CFPS 99 212 64 161 147 BVPS 369 421 484 563 647 DPS 11.3 12.9 12.9 15.2 18.9 PER (x) 37.9 22.9 19.4 15.6 14.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 25.1 16.1 14.1 11.5 1.4 P/BV (x) 4. 3.5 3. 2.6 2.3 P/CF (x) 14.9 7. 23.2 9.2 1.1 Dividend Yield (%).8.9.9 1. 1.3 Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 5 of 6
Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36-38, Jakarta 1219, Indonesia General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Equity Research), +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9542 Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9617 Handoko Wijoyo Construction, Toll Road handoko.wijoyo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9418 Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9553 Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry herman.koeswanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9569 Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9465 Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9682 Matthew Wibowo Retail matthew.wibowo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9549 Rizky Hidayat Property, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9415 Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9546 Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9572 Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 946 Aditya Sastrawinata Research Assistant aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9543 Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9544 Yudha Gautama Research Assistant yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id +62 21 5296 9623 INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375 RETAIL SALES Ridwan Pranata Head Retail Equities ridwan.pranata@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9514 Boy Triyono Jakarta Branch boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9436 Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading Branch yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 45845355 Hendra Riady Mangga Dua Branch hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id +6221 623 2333 Umar Abdullah Pondok Indah Branch umar.abdullah@mandirisek.co.id +6221 759184 Indra Mas ari Bandung Branch indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id +6222 426-588 Yuri Ariadi Pontianak Branch yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id +62561 582292 Ruwie Medan Branch ruwie@mandirisek.co.id +6261 457 1116 INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (1% or higher), Neutral (-1% to1%) and Sell (-1% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275711. ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.