Financial Stability 1/11. Charts

Similar documents
Financial stability 2/11. Charts

Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessement 1/13. Charts

Chart 1.1 Risk premiums 1 on European and US corporate bonds. Basis points. 1 January October 2017

Chart 1.1 Unemployment rate. Percent of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 2008 May 2013

Executive Board Meeting. 21 September 2011

Executive Board meeting. 14 December 2011

Monetary Policy Report 2/12. Charts

Chart 1.1 GDP. Seasonally adjusted volume index Q1= Q Q4 110

Monetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 3/11. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 3/12. Charts

Executive Board meeting

Executive Board meeting

Financial Stability November

Executive Board meeting. 31 October 2012

Outlook for the Norwegian economy

Executive Board meeting

Housing finance in Norway

Monetary Policy Report 1/09

Norges Bank Watch Kyrre Aamdal, DNB Kjell Erik Lommerud, Universitetet i Bergen

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 4 th quarter 2017

Inflation targeting. Governor Svein Gjedrem Gausdal 31 January Mainland GPD and consumer prices Percentage change on previous year

EU Capital Markets Union The Norwegian Angle

Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy

Investor presentation

The economic situation and monetary policy

SpareBank 1 Boligkreditt

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN, 8 MAY 2015

NORGES BANK S SURVEY OF BANK LENDING

OUTLOOK FOR THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN

REPORT. vulnerabilities AND RISKS

RESULTS DNB GROUP FOURTH QUARTER

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2017

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2018

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2018

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2017

Annex I to the ESRB risk dashboard. Methodological Annex. 1. Interlinkages and composite measures of systemic risk. Last update: September 2017

DNB GROUP. Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Madrid June 2014

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 3 rd quarter 2017

Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, London 27 March Jan Erik Back CFO SEB

Six good reasons for choosing DNB in the new banking environment

DnB NOR Norway and beyond

NORWAY 3.22 NORWAY. By Michael H. Cook, Finance Norway I. FRAMEWORK

Monetary Policy Report October

Financial stability report. Vulnerabilities and risks

Overcoming the crisis

Costs and benefits of "leaning against the wind": an illustration

FOURTH QUARTER 2017 AND THE YEAR 2017 JAN ERIK KJERPESETH CEO SPAREBANKEN VEST

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

Q3 RESULTS DNB GROUP THIRD QUARTER Roadshow London, Edinburgh and Dublin

December. Monetary Policy Report. with financial stability assessment

New information since the October 2011 Monetary Policy Report (3/11) 1

Financial Stability 2018:1. Chapter 1 Assessment of the current situation

Third quarter (Unaudited) Skandiabanken Boligkreditt AS

Potential Gains from the Reform Package

Report of the Board of Directors

DnB NOR Group. Bjørn Erik Næss, chief financial officer. Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference, June

Note 2 - IFRS accounting principles

Can performance continue?

Quarterly report. Interim report. First Quarter 2017 NOTES TO THE ACCOUNTS

Covered Bond Programme - Cover Pool Report 30. September 2018 Public Covered Bonds Outstanding:

Boligkreditt 1st Quarterly Report 2018

SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA 3rd quarter 2014

Challenges to the single monetary policy and the ECB s response. Benoît Cœuré Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank

Covered Bond Programme - Cover Pool Report 30. Juni 2018 Public Covered Bonds Outstanding:

Pillar III Gjensidige Bank Holding AS Gjensidige Bank Holding Group

DNB Boligkreditt AS DNB Bank ASA. November 2013

Dynamic Management. The SpareBank 1 group s road to a new corporate governance based on the principles of Beyond Budgeting

Handelsbanken. January March April 2014

High quality growth in Nordic Life and Pensions

RESULTS DNB GROUP SECOND QUARTER 2015 AS OF 10 JULY 2015 INVESTOR MEETINGS ZÜRICH & GENÈVE. Terje Turnes (CRO) Jan Erik Gjerland (IR)

Company presentation. Third quarter October Norway s fastest growing region is our home market

05 April Government bond yields, curve slopes and spreads Swaps and Forwards Credit & money market spreads... 4

The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank

DnB NOR Group. Roar Hoff, Head of Group Risk Analysis. Nordic Bank Seminar, 3 June 2010, Copenhagen

Jan F Qvigstad: Outlook for the Norwegian economy

Current Situation, Outlook, and Challenges

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 4 th quarter 2016

Interim Report 2 nd quarter 2011 Nordea Bank Norge Group

Quarterly report. Interim report Q NOTES TO THE ACCOUNTS 1

Interim Report 2 nd quarter 2015 Nordea Eiendomskreditt AS

Vítor Constâncio ECB Vice-President. Fragmentation and Rebalancing in the euro area

ECB LTRO Dec Greece program

SpareBank 1 SR-Bank. SR-Boligkreditt. Norwegian economy. Appendix

Global Economic Prospects

Handelsbanken January June July 2013

RESULTS DNB GROUP. Rune Bjerke (CEO) Bjørn Erik Næss (CFO)

DNB Bank DNB Boligkreditt. March 2012

1.1. Low yield environment

SpareBank 1 Covered Bond Programme - Investor Report March 2014 Public Covered Bonds Outstanding:

Interim Report January June

Monetary Policy Report September 2017

Svein Gjedrem: On business cycles, monetary policy and property markets

Næringskreditt 2nd Quarterly Report 2015

Inflation Report. July September 2012

Pilar III. Financial information

Quarterly report 2 I 2016

Handelsbanken January September October 2012

Interim report first half 2011

Transcription:

Financial Stability 1/11 Charts

Chapter 1

Chart 1.1 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Per cent. Annual figures. 1. 1 Q1 and 11 Q1 3 1-1 - 3 1-1 - -3 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profit -3 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1. Banks 1) volume of lending and loan losses to various industries in 1. ) In billions of NOK and as a percentage of lending to the respective industries 5,89 Lending volume (left-hand scale) Loan losses (right-hand scale),7 1,,8 3,6, 1,16,13,16, Property management Shipping Primary industries 1) All banks in Norway ) Broken line shows average loan loss in the corporate market 3) Shipping is limited to lending to Norwegian shipping companies Source: Norges Bank 3) Trade Manufacturing,

Chart 1.3 Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratio and equity ratio. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 1987 Q 1 Q 1 1 Equity ratio Tier 1 capital ratio Tier 1 capital ratio without floor ) 1 1 8 8 6 6 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 5 8 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway. Equity ratio prior to 199 is for all banks ) The floor was 95% of Basel I in 7, 9% in 8 and 8% from 9 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Chart 1. Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratio. Per cent. Total assets. In billions of NOK. As at 1 Q 5 New Tier 1 capital ratio requirement 5 Tier 1 capital ratio 15 1 New Tier 1 capital ratio requirement + conservation buffer New Tier 1 capital ratio requirement + conservation buffer + maximum countercyclical buffer 15 1 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 Total assets (logarithmic scale) 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Chart 1.5 Banks 1) total assets and risk-weighted assets. In billion of NOK. End-of-year figures. 1 3 5 3 5 Total assets Floor effect ) Risk-weighted assets without floor 3 5 3 5 1 5 1 5 1 1 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 1 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) The floor was 95% of Basel I in 7, 9% in 8 and 8% from 9 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Chart 1.6 OMF covered bond mortgage companies 1) total assets and riskweighted assets. In billions of NOK. End-of-year figures. 5 1 8 7 6 5 3 1 Total assets ) Floor effect Risk-weighted assets without floor 5 6 7 8 9 1 1) All residential mortgage companies except Handelsbanken Eiendomskreditt NUF. Nordea Eiendomskreditt is only included in 1 ) The floor was 95% of Basel I in 7, 9% in 8 and 8% from 9 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank 8 7 6 5 3 1

Chart 1.7 Capital requirements for Norwegian bank groups 1) using IRB models, by area of risk. Share in per cent. As of 1 Q Operational risk 6, Market risk,8 Transitional rule ) 1, Credit risk 8,7 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, SpareBank 1 SMN, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge and Bank 1 Oslo ) Requirement as IRB banks are not yet permitted to reduce capital to Basel II level Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Chart 1.8 Banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies 1) deposit-to-loan ratio for customers. Per cent. Monthly figures. January 1987 March 11 11 Banks 11 1 Banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 5 8 11 1) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

Chart 1.9 Banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies 1) weighted residual maturity of gross market funding. In years. Quarterly figures. Q1 11 Q1 3,5 Banks 3,5 3,,5 Banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies 3,,5,, 1,5 1,5 1, 1,,5,5,, 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway. Break in series in 9 Q as a result of more closely defined intervals Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.1 Banks 1) stable funding as a percentage of stable funding requirement (NSFR) and liquid assets as a percentage of required liquid assets (LCR). ) Average for group. 11 Q1 15 LCR NSFR 15 1 1 75 75 5 5 5 5 All banks DnB NOR + commercial banks Savings banks Total assets> NOK bn Savings banks Total assets< NOK bn 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway. The broken line shows the requirement under NSFR and LCR (Basel III) ) Norges Bank s estimate Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.11 Banks 1) gross short-term market funding as a percentage of total assets. Per cent. Quarterly figures. Q1 11 Q1 3 5 Foreign currency NOK 3 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1) All banks excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway. The broken line shows the average for the period 11 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.1 Market shares for the five largest banks 1) in Norway based on total assets. Shares in per cent. Quarterly figures. 1987 Q1 11 Q1 5 5 Largest Second largest Third largest Fourth largest Fifth largest 5 5 35 Merger of DnC and Bergen Bank Merger of DnB and Postbanken 35 3 3 5 15 1 5 Merger of DnB and Gjensidige NOR 5 15 1 5 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 9 11 1) All banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.13 Distribution of banks 1) lending to the retail market, corporate market and foreign enterprises ). Shares in per cent. As of 31 December 1 Manufacturing Primary industries 3,1 3, Trade etc. 3,5 Foreign enterprises 6, Shipping, Other industries 3,1 Retail market (mortgages) 38, Services 7,1 Construction 3,8 Property management, 1) All banks in Norway ) Shipping accounts for a large share of lending to foreign enterprises Source: Norges Bank Retail market (other loans) 7,6

Chart 1.1 Share of banks 1) residential mortgage loans transferred to OMF covered bond mortgage companies. Spread across banks ) and share for all banks. Per cent. At year-end 7 1 1 Lowest and highest share Median Share for all banks 1 8 8 6 6 7 8 9 1 1) All banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies in Norway ) Banks with wholly owned or partly owned OMF covered bond mortgage companies and with total assets in excess of NOK 3bn at end-1 Sources: Norges Bank and banks accounting reports

Chart 1.15 Tier 1 capital ratio. Spread across banks and weighted average for all banks. 1) Per cent. At year-end, 6, 8 and 1 5 Lowest and highest value Median bank ) Weighted average 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 6 8 1 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) The bank midway between highest and lowest when banks are arranged in order by Tier 1 capital ratio Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.16 GDP mainland Norway and trading partners. Four-quarter growth. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 7 Q1 11 Q 1) 8 GDP mainland Norway 8 6 GDP trading partners 6 - - - - -6 Mar. 7 Sep. 7 Mar. 8 Sep. 8 Mar. 9 Sep. 9 Mar. 1 Sep. 1 Mar. 11 Sep. 11 1) Projections for 11 Q1 11 Q Sources: Statistics Norway, OECD, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank -6

Chart 1.17 Implied volatility 1) derived from equity options. Per cent. Daily figures. January 1999 11 May 11 1 8 Europe US 1 8 6 6 1999 1 3 5 7 9 11 1) Market participants expectations as to future fluctuations in equity prices. The broken lines show the average for the period 1999 1 Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart 1.18 Commodity prices. The Economist price indices and oil price (Brent Blend). USD. Index, January 3=1. Weekly figures. January 3 May 11 5 35 Food Metals Oil (Brent Blend) 5 35 3 5 15 1 5 3 5 7 9 11 Source: Thomson Reuters 3 5 15 1 5

Chart 1.19 Bank lending surveys in US and euro area. Percentage of banks that have tightened credit standards minus percentage of banks that have eased credit standards. Quarterly figures. 3 Q1 11 Q1 1 Households (euro area) 1 8 Households (US) 8 6 6 - - - - 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Sources: Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) 1

Chart 1. Government bond spreads. Compared with German government bonds. 1-year maturity. Percentage points. Daily figures. 1 January 7 11 May 11 1 1 1 8 Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain Belgium 1 1 1 8 6 6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart 1.1 Indicative risk premiums on 5-year Norwegian corporate bonds, bank bonds and covered bonds. Spreads against swap rates. Percentage points. Weekly figures. July 7 11 May 11 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1,,5, Small banks with high rating DnB NOR Bank Covered bonds Industrials 1) -,5 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1,,5, -,5 1) Banks with total assets between NOK 5bn and 15bn and rated A by DnB NOR Markets Source: DnB NOR Markets

Chart 1. CDS prices. itraxx Senior Financials 1) and Nordic banks. Basis points. Daily figures. 1 January 7 11 May 11 5 itraxx Danske Bank DnB NOR Nordea 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 1) itraxx Senior Financials comprises 5 large European financial institutions Source: Bloomberg

Chart 1.3 Spread between 3-month money market rate and market expectations as to the key rate. 1) Percentage points. 5-day moving average. Daily figures. 5 January 7 11 May 11 3 US Norway Euro area 3 1 1 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 1) Expected key rates are derived from Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS). OIS for Norway estimated by Norges Bank Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 5

Chart 1. Bonds and OMF covered bonds issued by Norwegian banks and mortgage companies. In billions of NOK. Annual figures. 5 1. January April 11 3 Bank bonds - NOK 3 5 Bank bonds - foreign currencies OMF covered bonds - NOK 5 OMF covered bonds - foreign currencies 15 15 1 1 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 1 Jan - Apr 1 Jan - Apr 11 Sources: Stamdata and Bloomberg 6

Chart 1.5 Household debt burden 1) and interest burden ). Per cent. Quarterly figures. 1988 Q1 1 Q 3) 1 1 8 6 Debt burden (right hand scale) Interest burden (left hand scale) 5 15 1 5 1988 199 1996 8 1 1) Debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividend for 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 6 1 ) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 6 1 plus interest expenses 3) Projections for 11 Q1 1 Q Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.6 Share of private households 1) with debt burden of more than 5 per cent by debt burden. Per cent. Annual figures. 1987 8 1 1 1 Above 9 Between 7 and 9 Between 5 and 7 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 1) Excluding self-employed Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.7 Share of private households 1) with debt burden of more than 5 per cent by age. Per cent. Annual figures. 1987 8 1 Over 6 years 1 1 1 6-6 years 31-5 years Under 3 years 1 1 8 8 6 6 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 1) Excluding self-employed Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.8 House prices deflated by disposable income and the CPI. Indices. 1985 = 1. Annual figures. 1985 1 1) 18 16 1 1 1 8 6 Deflated by disposable income Deflated by CPI 1985 1988 1991 199 1997 3 6 9 1) Broken lines show the average for the period 1985 1 Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, Econ Pöyry, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 18 16 1 1 1 8 6

Chart 1.9 Dwelling in square metres a private middle-income household 1) can purchase given that loans are restricted to three times gross income. Square metres. Annual figures. 1987 8 ) 18 18 16 1 1 1 8 6 16 1 1 1 8 6 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 1) Households where the main income earner is between 5 and 65 years ) Price per square metre was NOK 3 3 in 8 Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate agents, ECON Pöyry, Finn.no, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.3 Population growth, rise in number of households and completed dwellings. Annual figures. 1 1) 7 6 Number of completed dwellings Rise in households 7 6 5 Rise in population growth (number) 5 3 3 1 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 1) Estimated rise in number of households Source: Statistics Norway

Chart 1.31 Key ratios for enterprises listed on Oslo Børs. 1) Per cent. Quarterly figures. Q 1 Q 3 5 15 1 5-5 Return on equity (broken line shows the average for the period 1) Operating margin (broken line shows the average for the period 1) -1 Q Q 5 Q 7 Q 8 Q 1 Q 3 5 15 1 5-5 -1 1) Sample consisting of 139 listed non-financial corporations as of 1 Q. Statoil is not included in the sample. Each observation is estimated based on a moving sum for the preceding four quarters. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 33

Chart 1.3 1-month growth in domestic credit (C) and total debt (C3) to nonfinancial corporations. Mainland Norway. Per cent. Monthly figures. January March 11 3 5 C C3 3 5 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11-5 Source: Statistics Norway

Chart 1.33 Debt-servicing capacity 1) for Norwegian private limited companies and the most liquid companies on Oslo Børs. ) Per cent. Quarterly figures for listed companies, annual figures for Norwegian private limited companies. 1 3 1 5 15 1 5 Norwegian private limited companies, broken line shows average for 199 9 (left-hand scale) Listed companies, broken line shows average for 1998 1 (right-hand scale) 8 6 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 1) Calculated as profit before tax, write-offs and write-downs as a percentage of interest-bearing debt for Norwegian private limited companies and as operating profit before write-offs and writedowns over the previous four quarters as a percentage of interest-bearing debt for listed companies ) Public administration and oil and gas production are not included in sample of Norwegian limited companies. Financial companies and Statoil are not included in sample of most liquid listed companies. Source: Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

Chart 1.3 Global deliveries, orders and scrapping of ships. In millions of deadweight tons. Monthly figures. 11 16 1 1 1 8 6 Deliveries (left-hand scale) Scrapping (left-hand scale) Orders (right-hand scale) 7 6 5 3 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 Jan-apr 11 Source: Clarkson Research Service Ltd

1) Transactions over NOK 5m Sources: UNION Gruppen and DnB NOR Næringsmegling Chart 1.35 Sales of commercial property in Norway. 1) In billions of NOK. Annual figures. 3 1 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 1

Chart 1.36 Real rental and selling prices for office premises. 1) Semi-annual figures. Indices. 1986 = 1. June 1986 December 1 1 1 Selling price Rental price 1 1 8 8 6 6 1986 1989 199 1995 1998 1 7 1 1) High-standard offices centrally located in Oslo. Broken lines shows the average over the period 1986 1 Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK and Norges Bank

Box 1.1

Chart 1 Vulnerabilities in the Norwegian banking sector and external sources of risk to the banking sector 1) Funding of banking sector Financial Stability /1 Financial Stability 1/11 Vulnerability in banking sector Structure of banking sector Capital and earnings in banking sector External sources of risk to banking sector Macroeconomic conditions Money and credit markets Households Enterprises 1) A value of, ie. origo, denotes the lowest level of risk or vulnerability. A value of 1 denotes the highest level of risk or vulnerability. Source: Norges Bank

Box 1.

Chart 1 Credit/GDP in Norway. 1) Level and trend ). Per cent. Quarterly data. 1985 Q1 1 Q 5 Credit/GDP 5 Trend 15 15 1 1 5 5 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 9 1) Total credit (C3) for mainland Norway and GDP for mainland Norway as of 1993 Q ) Calculated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with lambda equal to Sources: Statistics Norway, International Monetary Fund and Norges Bank

Chart Credit/GDP in Norway. 1) Measured as gap relative to trend ). Percentage points. Quarterly figures. 1985 Q1 1 Q 3 5 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Suggested thresholds for when the buffer requirement is triggered and when it is at maximum - 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 9 3 5 15 1 5-5 -1-15 - 1) Total credit (C3) for mainland Norway and GDP for mainland Norway as of 1993 Q ) Calculated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with lambda equal to Sources: Statistics Norway, International Monetary Fund and Norges Bank

Chapter

Chart.1 Mainland GDP. Annual volume change. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 1) 6 Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) 6-5 7 9 11 13 1) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

Chart. House prices. Year-on-year rise. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 1) 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) 15 1 5-5 -1-15 - - 5 7 9 11 13 1) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate Agents, ECON Pöyry, Finn.no, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms and Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

Chart.3 Bank lending rate. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 1) 8 8 6 6 Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) 5 7 9 11 13 1) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart. Problem loans as a percentage of gross lending. Per cent. Annual figures. 1 1) 5 Baseline scenario 5 Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) 3 3 1 1 6 8 1 1 1 1) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart.5 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Baseline scenario. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 3 1-1 - -3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Projections for 11 1 for DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 3 1-1 - -3

Chart.6 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Stress scenario 1. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 3 1-1 - -3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Projections for 11 1 for DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 3 1-1 - -3

Chart.7 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Stress scenario. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 3 1-1 - -3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Projections for 11 1 for DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 3 1-1 - -3

Chart.8 Weighted growth in credit to enterprises (C3) and households (C). Year-on year growth 1). Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 15 1 Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) 15 1 5 5-5 5 7 9 11 13 1) Change in stock of loans measured at year-end ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -5

Chart.9 Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratio in stress scenarios. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) Current minimum Tier 1 capital ratio Proposed minimum Tier 1 capital ratio 5 7 9 11 13 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Chart.1 Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratios in stress scenario. Banks are ranked by Tier 1 capital ratio. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 1 1 1 8 6 1 1 1 8 6 Median 3) Highest and lowest value Current minimum Tier 1 capital ratio Proposed minimum Tier 1 capital ratio 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Projections for 11 1 3) Median is defined here as the middle bank in a list where half the banks have a lower Tier 1 capital ratio than the median bank Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Box.1

Chart 1 Banks 1) post-tax profits in baseline scenarios. Percentage of average total assets. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 1,5 1, Historical figures Baseline scenario FS 1/11 Baseline scenario FS /1 Baseline scenario FS 1/1 1,5 1,,5,5, 5 7 9 11 13 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank,

Chart Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Per cent. Annual figures. 7 1 3 1-1 - 3 1-1 - -3 7 8 9 FS /1 1 1 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits ) -3 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Baseline scenario in FS /1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 3 Banks 1) loan losses in baseline scenarios. Percentage of gross lending. Annual figures. 5 1 1,,5 Historical figures Baseline scenario FS 1/11 Baseline scenario FS /1 Baseline scenario FS 1/1 1,,5,, -,5 -,5-1, 5 7 9 11 13 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -1,

Chart Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratios in baseline scenarios. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 Historical figures Baseline scenario FS 1/11 Baseline scenario FS /1 Baseline scenario FS 1/1 Current minimum Tier 1 capital ratio Proposed minimum Tier 1 capital ratio 5 7 9 11 13 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Box.

Table 1: Liquid assets in the LCR Level 1 assets: Cash Central bank reserves Securities issued by sovereigns, central banks and other PSEs assigned a % risk weight under the Basel II Standardised Approach Non-% risk-weighted sovereign or central bank debt securities, with certain restrictions Level assets: Securities issued by sovereigns, central banks and other PSEs assigned a % risk weight under the Basel II Standardised Approach Corporate bonds and covered bonds with a credit rating of at least AA-