Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018
Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook. Nonetheless, global-wide improving economies could lead to tightening monetary from central banks, following Fed s gradual rate hikes. As a result, Converging monetary policies could further strengthen other currencies against the US dollar amid backdrops of global economic recovery. In December, Thai economy continued to expand, driven by all engines of growth except public investment. Private consumption expanded mainly from durable consumption and services, while private investment remained tepid, though gradually improved especially in equipment investment. 2017 exports expanded at 9.9% thanks to global trade recovery and rising oil prices, which amounted to 236 bn USD. For 2018, we expect exports to grow by 4.8% corresponding to a recovery of major trading partners economies and an increase in oil price. Although lower expected growth than previous year, the export value is still high, around 20.7 bn USD a month. Exports to all major markets, especially China, CLMV and USA are expected to keep edging up more than 6%. Potential top performers are Electronics/ Computer & parts, Steel, Chemical, and Rubber. -1-
Executive Summary 2017 MPI grew by +1.6%yoy, supported by export-oriented products and we expect that MPI will expand by 1.5-2.0% in 2018 from increase in export and recovery in domestic market. 2017, number of foreign tourists were recorded 35.38 mill (+9%yoy) and generated 1.82 trillion baht (+12%yoy). Top source markets were China 28%, ASEAN 26%, Europe 18% and East Asia 13%. Growth was driven from more new direct flight routes, regional and global economic recovery. For 2018, we expect the number of visitors to continue expanding at rate 5.7%yoy (total of 37 Mill visitors) and 11% in growth of receipts (total of 2 Trillion Baht). January inflation rate was 0.7%. Price increase was from higher energy prices, though weighed down by drop in fresh food prices. 2018 Inflation is expected to increase to 1.4% due to rise in energy price and domestic demand recovery. 4Q2017 GDP was 4.0% making average 2017 GDP to be 3.9%. The main drivers remained exports of goods and services, while domestic demand gradually but continually expanded. For 2018, all economic components are expected to perform well leading to 2018 GDP growth of 4.2%. -2-
Executive Summary Year-to-date, Thai baht appreciated against the USD by almost 3.8% due to weak US dollar, strong current account surplus (from exports of goods and services) and fund flows into overall Asian markets. Nonetheless, recent global equities rout due to fear of faster-than-expected tightening from the Fed (more than 3 hikes) spook volatility across asset classes. Hence, in near term, FX volatility is expected to be moderate to high and FX trading ranges could be wider compared to last year. Should the Fed remain firm on 3-hike stance, volatility could be subsided. Nonetheless, for 2018, Thai baht could reach 31.5 THB/USD by the end of 2018 and could test 30 THB/USD mark, depending on how strong the fund inflow will be. -3-
Global Economy
Synchronized Global Recovery Boost Global Trade US EU GDP Growth (% YoY) +2.5 +2.1 Unemployment (%) 9.3 4.0 9.6 8.6 Pre-Crisis Global Trade Value Trillion 30 USD 20 8.6 3 Months forecast JP +6.6 4.3 4.0 10 32 25 32 26 9 Months Actual JP +1.4 09 18F 5.1 2.9 09 18F 0 '08 '09 '16 '17 Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, IMF, World Bank and TMB Analytics -5-
But! Stronger Growth Will Eventually Lead To Global Monetary Policy Tightening Central Banks Balance Sheet Trillion USD 15 13 11 9 Fed s balance sheet expansion caused acceleration in Thai market liquidity BOJ s Balance Sheet Future balance sheet reductions will decelerate Thai market liquidity Trillion THB 3 2 7 5 3 1 Thai Market Liquidity ECB s Balance Sheet Fed s Balance Sheet '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 1 0 Source: Bloomberg, Fed, BoJ, ECB and TMB Analytics -6-
Why? No More CB s Money Via QE in 2019 FED Short-term rate: Fed Fund Dovish Hawkish 1H/2018 2H/2018 1H/2019 1 Rate Hike 2 Rate Hike 1 Rate Hike $ -20 bn $ -30 bn $ -40 bn $ -50 bn $ -50 bn B/S run-off ECB Short-term rate: Refin Rate Dovish Hawkish 0 Rate Hike 0 Rate Hike 0 Rate Hike Start QE Tapering *we expect 1 st hike in 2019 EUR 30 bn EUR 15 bn EUR 15 bn BOJ 0 Rate Hike 0 Rate Hike 0 Rate Hike Short-term rate: PR-Balances Dovish Hawkish Source: Bloomberg, Fed, BoJ, ECB, CEIC Bloomberg and and TMB Analytics JPY 80 Trillion / year JPY 80 Trillion / year JPY 40 Trillion / year -7-
Tightening Monetary Policy Will Increasing Cost of Funds, Both in Baht and Dollar USD Rates Thai Government Bond Yield %year end 3 UST 10-Year 2.40 3.05 2.33 %year end 4 10Y Bond Yield 3.10 2 3 10-Year 2.32 1 1-Month Libor 1.56 2 2-Year 1.46 1.85 0 13H2 14H2 15H2 16H2 17H2 18H2 1 13H2 14H2 15H2 16H2 17H2 18H2 Source: Bloomberg, CEIC and TMB Analytics -8-
What s About 2018? More Demands for Thai Baht Q1-Q3/2017 FDI 9% Foreign net buy 13% EEC, BOI attract more investment Increasing EPS growth of listed firms 2018 Outlook Inflow Net Export Services 32% Continual expansion of Thai tourism Surplus Net Export Goods 18% No More Robust Trade Surplus Outflow Outflow Deficit TDI 15% Thai net buy 13% Growing economy lures more investments from Thai firms Brightening outlook of Foreign Investment Fund Industry Inflow Source: Bank of Thailand, CEIC and TMB Analytics -9-
Even with 3 Fed Hikes? No Worry! Domestic Fundamentals Lessen External Impacts 35.50 35.00 34.50 34.00 33.50 33.00 32.50 32.00 31.50 31.00 30.50 Trump started presidency term Sell USD Theme GDP Source: Bloomberg and TMB Analytics Fed hiked policy rate by 25bps Macron won French election Fading EU political risk ECB s unintentionally signal QE tapering? Strong THB Factors Robust Thai economy Geopolitical Risks USDTHB 2017 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 VS ECB finally tapered QE and extended QE until Sep 2018 1 Fed Hikes in December 2017 & Tightening dollar liquidity TARIFF Renewed EU Political Rout? Another market sell-off 32.00 Fund inflows from improving economy 18Q1 31.75 18Q2 Weak THB Factors CB s tightening monetary policies Pro-growth Trumponomics* & Trade Protectionism USDTHB 2018 3 Hikes & Robust Thai Economy 3 Fed s rate hikes Continual fund inflows High C/A surplus 31.00 18Q3 31.50 period-end 2018 18Q4-10-
Domestic Economy
Domestic Demand Improved, though Slightly Slowed Down Durable Consumption Surged Private Investment Hovered around Last Year Level %yoy 20 10 0 Index 85 80 75 Services Durable %yoy 5 2 Index 53 50 Private Investment -10 70-20 65 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Cons Confidence (RHS) -1-4 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 47 44 Biz Sentiment (RHS) Farm Income Dropped Mainly from Price Effect %yoy 45 30 15 0-15 -30 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Source: BOT and TMB Analytics Price Quantity Farm Income Private consumption expanded mainly from durable consumption and services, which is consistent with improving overall consumer confidence. Farm income dropped compared to last year mainly from reduction in rubber price which overwhelmed the quantity increase. Private investment slightly expanded mainly from equipment investment in line with better business sentiment index, while construction investment remained contracted. -12-
2018, Thai Industrial Outputs Will Continue to Increase 125 120 Manufacturing Production Index MPI (Export less than 30%) 2017, MPI grew up +1.6%yoy with capacity utilization rate of 61%,supported by export oriented products, an increase outputs in vehicle, auto-part, foods, electronic parts and rubber products. While, a decrease outputs in steel products, fashion product and electric home appliance (air-conditioner). For 2018 industrial outputs outlook, we expect that MPI will expand by 1.5-2.0% as continue to grow in export market and recover in domestic market. 115 110 MPI (Export between 30-60%) 105 100 MPI (Export more than 60%) 95 90 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Source: OIE and TMB Analytics Manufacturing Product Index (%YoY) Seasonal Production 2016 2017 Dec-17 Production Trend (Sep-Dec17) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Manufacturing Product Index (MPI) 1.6 1.6 2.3 Agri. Machinery 5.8-5.0 51.2 Rubber -0.7 12.6 28.9 Healthcare -1.2 5.7 14.1 Autopart -1 7.1 13.0 Vehicle 2.2 1.3 11.9 Petroleum 2.4 5.0 10.6 Consumer Goods 1.1-1.4 10.3 Chemical 0.5 4.1 8.7 Food 2.7 4.2 5.7 Papers & Printing 5.2 2.7 5.4 Furniture and Household Products -17.3-2.8 3.5 Electronic/Computer & Parts 2.7 7.7 1.7 Plastics 4.2-0.7 0.1 Electronic/Electric Home Appliance 15.1-7.1-1.0 Construction Material -0.9-1.9-1.1 Beverage -0.2-0.2-8.1 Fashion Products -2.8-8.6-17.7 Steel 5.3-4.6-23.3 Tabacco -9.2-16.9-28.6 High Production Low Production -13-
Tourism sector remains robust and will continue to 2018 85% 28% CHINA 18% Europe 26% ASEAN 13% East ASIA 35.38 Mill (+9%YOY) visitors were recorded in 2017 2017 international tourism revenue *4 markets generated 81% of receipts. AFRICAS 1% MIDDLE EAST 3% OCEANNIA 4% SOUTH ASIA 4% AMERICAS 6% 11% EAST ASIA* 29% CHINA* 1.82TRN (+12%YOY) 15% ASEAN* 26% EUROPE* Characteristics of main market Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 48 45 58 53 61 70 69 70 Unit : Billion Baht 124 117 150 134 83 164 88 146 Length of Stay : Days 7 6 8 17 Capita Spending : Baht/Day 5.83k 5.28k 6.30k 4.24k 2017, number of foreign tourists were recorded 35.38 mill (+9%yoy) and generated 1.82 trillion baht (+12%yoy). Top source markets were China 28%, ASEAN 26% (Malaysia Laos), Europe 18% (Russia UK) and East Asia 13% (Korea Japan). Thanks to more new direct flight routes, regional and global economic growth, the sector, then, keep growing at a 'robust pace throughout the years and year forward. European were highest-spending per trip as long stay, arrivals were at their peak during Q1 and Q4 of the year. While Chinese have highest capita per day travel spending. 2018, Tourism Sector was projected to continue expanding 5.7% in growth of visitors (to be 37 Mill) and 11% in growth of receipts (to be 2 Trillion Baht). -14-
Thai Export.Continuing Expand in All Major Markets and Products What is 2018 outlook for Thai Export? Markets China +8.0 (2017 +23.7) CLMV +7.5 (2017 +13.1) USA EU Japan +7.0 (2017 +8.3) +5.5 (2017 +7.6) +5.0 (2017 +8.9) ASEAN 5 +3.5 (2017 +6.0) Total +4.8 (2017 +9.9) Continual economic growth supported by fundamental and high technological development Strong economic expansion Strong domestic consumption Recovery in household consumption and business Growth in domestic consumption and industrial production Continual economic and export growth from a raise in oil price Continuing Growth of trading partners Oil Price still affect on export growth Computer & Parts +6.5 (2017 +8.9) +6.5 (2017 +20.9) +6.0 (2017 +17.0) Electricals Appliance Steel Chemical Rubber Food +6.0 (2017 +16.1) +5.0 (2017 +37.9) +5.0 (2017 +6.8) Products Strong consumption supported by digital economy Solid expansion in global manufacturing production and major economies consumption Continued consumption growth from major trading partners Rising demand for tire mfg from China Expect better consumption, especially form EU and USA Sources: Ministry of Commerce and TMB Analytics -15-
Expect Accelerating Public Investment to Drive Growth In 1QFY18, investment spending contracted by 5% due to the delay in new disbursement process According to investment project in pipeline and higher investment budget (THB622billion for central government and THB500billion for state enterprises) for next year, we expect more accelerating investment withdrawal for Y18 to boost the economy and attract private investment. Capital Budget Disbursement Capital Budget Disbursement Rate Billion THB 60 50 2015 2016 2017 14% 1QFY18 Disbursed 40 30 20 70% FY17 Disbursed 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Fiscal Policy Office and TMB Analytics -16-
Policy Rate Normalization is Expected to Begin Later This Year Higher Inflation from Increase in Energy Price %yoy Avg17 = 0.7% Jan18 = 0.7% January inflation rate was 0.7%. Energy price increases were weighed down by tumbling fresh food prices causing January inflation to move slightly lower than last month. Due to expected higher energy prices, We expect inflation rate to be averaged at 1.4% in 2018. Policy Rate is Expected to be Held at 1.50% as Inflation Remains Low % We expect the rate normalization to begin later this year as global interest rate is on an upward trend following 3 fed rate hikes in 2017 and expected other 3 hikes this year. 2 Thai policy rate is forecasted to increase to 2% at the end of 2018. However, there is still concern over recovery of private investment, which can delay Thai rate normalization. Source: MOC, BOT, CEIC and TMB Analytics -17-
THANK YOU Disclaimer This document is issued by TMB Analytics, a division of TMB Bank PCL. All analyses are based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be gathered from reliable sources, TMB makes no guarantee to its accuracy and completeness. TMB may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Opinions or predictions expressed herein reflect the authors views, not that of TMB, as of date of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. TMB shall not be responsible for the use of contents and its implication.