Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q3 2012

Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q3 2012 Published in November 2012 1

Contents Summary of Quarter 3 2012 and economic outlook: Global. United Kingdom. Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland. 1. Gross output estimates. 5 Economic growth forecast for Northern Ireland. GDP United Kingdom. 2. Labour market. 6 Employment. Vacancies. Labour market inactivity. Unemployment Redundancies. 3. Inflation. 10 Consumer price indices. Inflation forecast. 4. Housing market. 12 Northern Ireland. United Kingdom. Republic of Ireland. 5. Households and consumers. 14 Households resources. Consumer Confidence. New vehicle registrations. 6. Business environment. 16 NI Index of services and Index of Production Company liquidations. BoE Agents Summary of Business Conditions. 7. Exchange rates and interest rates. 19 Exchange rates: / and /$. Interest rates. Report by Angela McGowan and Giacomo Fresi. 1 1

Summary of Quarter 3 2012 and economic outlook: Global: After significant uncertainty during the summer months policy makers finally delivered a significant policy solution to the escalating sovereign debt crisis. In Europe, the ECB agreed to a credible liquidity backstop by way of unlimited bond buying for indebted countries and the German Constitutional Court ruled in favour of the ESM. Nonetheless the impact of heightened uncertainty during Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 took its toll on business confidence and investment levels and the lagging impact will most certainly be felt in Europe and the UK in Quarter 4. Since Quarter 3 global leading indicators have continued to show signs of improvement, as Global PMI and new orders increased further confirming the positive trend in the global economy. The US and China were the main forces behind the rise, as national PMIs increased and expectations were positive. Emerging Markets in general look better as PMIs in Russia and Brazil also rose nicely. The European economies, are lagging behind, and remain stuck at a relatively low point. OECD s global leading indicator is still declining but not as steeply as in previous months. Overall we believe that the upturn in leading indicators will continue in the coming months and that Europe will start to follow the trend set by China and the US, albeit from very low levels. United Kingdom: The latest GDP data suggests that the UK economy has emerged from recession with quarter on quarter growth of 1.0% reported in Q3. Whilst this is encouraging, the recent rebound is largely stemming from a rebound after the Jubilee Holiday during Q2 which disrupted economic activity. In addition, the effect of the Olympics while positive, will not be sustained going forward. The picture in leading indicators is cloudier, with a recent fall in service PMI from 52.2 to 50.6 surprising on the downside. Unemployment fell to 7.6 percent in Quarter 3 and inflation fell back too providing some support for households, however uncertainty remains high. The IMF has raised some questions about the merits of an austerity led approach to recovery and more and more academics are now speaking out in favour of providing some stimulus to ignite growth. For now the UK Chancellor is sticking to Plan A with little sign of a shift in fiscal policy. Northern Ireland The NI economy has struggled to keep pace with the UK and until Q2 2012 had not enjoyed any net job creation, marking the region out as the weakest labour market in the UK. It seems more likely that the jobs market will continue to contract as beleaguered consumers, a government in cuts mode and business uncertainty provide a far from favourable mix. The cash rich large corporates which are aiding the UK are sadly too few in number in NI to arrest job declines elsewhere. While NI did receive a boost this year from many tourist events such as the opening of the Titanic Building and the Irish Open, the benefits did not match the UK s Olympic effect. The claimant count level has continued to climb in Quarter 3 and may in coming months be exacerbated by the reforms to the welfare system. However, on a more positive note the latest housing surveys for Northern Ireland are indicating that the local housing market appears to be showing signs of stabilisation and local consumer confidence levels have improved. 2 2

Republic of Ireland: Following growth in real GDP of 1.4 per cent last year, the rate of expansion in the Irish economy is projected to moderate this year to about 0.5 per cent. However, the Central Bank of Ireland has forecast growth levels to reach about 1.7 per cent next year as the external environment improves. The outlook for the domestic side of the Irish economy however remains less positive as the unemployment rate at 14.8 percent holds back confidence and domestic demand. The Department of Finance in the RoI has forecast that unemployment will stay as high as 13 percent until 2015 at the earliest. GNP is forecast to expand by a mere 0.7 per cent in 2013 and domestic demand is not expected to stabilise until next year. Angela McGowan Chief Economist Nov 2012 3 3

Economic Summary Annual Growth (GDP) Northern Ireland GVA growth UK annual GDP growth TABLE 1 2010 2011 1.1% 0.5 Latest Quarter 3 data (2012) - 0.2% (Oxford forecast) 1.2% 1.5 +1% (Q3 2012) 2013 Annual Forecast 0.9 1.5 RoI annual GDP growth -0.425 +0.7 0.0 qoq (Q2 2012) 1.7 NI Employment rate 818,100 (annual average) 810,600 (annual average) 804,000 67.4% (July - Sept 12) 805,000 (annual average) NI Unemployment UK ILO Unemployment RoI Unemployment ILO rate [Annual Average] 7.2% 7.3% Claimant count Annual Ave Annual ILO rate 7.8 8.0 Annual Ave ILO rate UK Inflation [CPI Annual Average (y/y change) RoI Inflation Annual Average UK Interest Rate Bank of England official rate Annual Average RoI / ECB Interest Rate Annual Average 67,000 7.6% (July-Sept 12) 6.4% 6.75% 7.0% 7.9 (Sept 12) 13.6 14.4 14.9 (Sept 12) 3.3% 4.5% 2.7 (Oct 12) -0.9 2.1 1.9 (Sept12) 0.5% 0.5% 1% 1.25% 7.8% (annual average) 64,100 (Oct 12) 7.4% 0.5% (Oct 12) 0.75% (Oct12) 7.9 14.6 2.1 2.0 0.5% 0.75% 4 4

1. Gross output estimates GDP United Kingdom Provisional data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the UK economy grew by 1.0% in the Quarter 3 2012, following a contraction of 0.4% in the previous quarter. The latest Oxford Economics / Northern Bank, Sectoral Forecast report estimates that the annual growth rate for the UK economy during 2012 is approximately 0.2 percent and in 2013 the UK is estimated to grow at 1.5 percent respectively. Economic Growth forecast for Northern Ireland The Northern Bank/Oxford Economics Quarterly Sectoral Forecast report (November 2012) estimates that the local economy experienced a contraction of 0.2 percent during Quarter 3 and has probably contracted by 1 percent over the course of the entire year (2012). The local economy is expected to grow by 0.9 percent during 2013. [see Figure 1]. Figure 1. Oxford Economics estimates and forecast of GVA growth in Northern Ireland and UK. (2008-2014). GVA growth (%) 4.0 NI 2.0 UK 0.0 % -2.0 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014-4.0-6.0-8.0 N.B.: Data for Northern Ireland output are available in the form of GVA (Gross value added), where GDP = GVA + Taxes Subsides on products (the latter two items are available only at a national level). 2. Labour market Employment The latest Monthly Labour Market Report from the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA) shows that the number of people in employment in Northern 5 5

Ireland during the three-month period July to September 2012 was estimated to be 804,000, equal to 67.4% of people aged 16-64. This represented an increase of 8,000 over the quarter and 5,000 over the year. The Northern Ireland employment rate (67.4%) remained lower than the UK average (71.2%) and is the lowest rate among the twelve UK regions. Sectoral employment data (published in November) for the March to June 2012 period showed that a further increase of 1,290 people were reported to be working in the Services sector and the local manufacturing sector employed 620 more people over the quarter. The Construction sector lost a further 90 jobs in the same period. [see Figure 2]. During March to June the private sector saw an increase of 2,710 jobs and the public sector decreased by 620 jobs. Over the year to June the public sector contracted with a decrease of 3,320 jobs while the private sector saw an expansion of 1,010 jobs. Figure 2. Employee jobs in Northern Ireland: Annual and quarterly changes by industry. (June 2012). Source: DFP/ NISRA 2012 Vacancies The level of unfilled vacancies reported to the Department of Enterprise Trade and Investment (DETI in the period ending 7 th September 2012 was 7,838, an increase of 28 per cent relative to the same period last year, when vacancies stood at 6,102. The number of unfilled vacancies available to jobseekers at this time was 3,429. 6 6

Labour Market Inactivity The seasonally adjusted number of economically inactive persons (who are of working age) in Northern Ireland in the period July-September 2012 was estimated at 312,000. The Department of Finance and Personnel noted that 39 percent were male (122,000) and 61 percent were female (190,000). The working-age economic inactivity rate for Northern Ireland stood at 26.9%, in the period July-September, this was significantly higher than the UK average (22.6%) and the highest of the twelve UK regions. Unemployment Claimant Count (September 2012) The Department of Finance and Personnel has reported that the seasonally adjusted claimant count in NI increased by 600 over the month of October 2012, it now stands at 64,100. The local claimant count rate was 7.0% of the workforce up 0.4 percentage points over the year, representing an increase of 3,600 people. [see Table 2]. In October the UK claimant count level rose by 10,100 from September 2012 and now sits at 1.58 million. The UK claimant count rate in September stood at 4.8%, unchanged from October one year earlier. Table 2. Claimant count in Northern Ireland and UK Level Monthly Annual change Rate % change Oct-12 (level) (level) Oct-12 Oct-11 Northern Ireland 64,100 +600 +3,600 7.0% 6.6% UK 1.58 million +10,100-10,900 4.8% 4.8% Source: ONS Figure 3. :Claimant count rate in Northern Ireland and UK (Jan 2010 to Oct 2012). Source: DFP and ONS Labour Market Statistics, various issues 7 7

ILO Quarterly Unemployment Rate (July-Sept 2012) The International Labour Organisation (ILO) seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Northern Ireland was 7.6% in the three-month period July to September 2012. This was unchanged over the quarter but up 0.4 percentage points over the year. [see Table 3]. The Northern Ireland ILO unemployment level was estimated to be 67,000 in July to September 2012, this was up 1,000 over the quarter and up 4,000 over the year. The ILO unemployment rate for the UK was higher at 7.8% in the same period. The number of jobseekers at the national level fell by 49,000 since Quarter 2 and was down 110,00 since one year ago. In Quarter 3 the number of unemployed in the UK was 2.51 million. Table 3. Unemployment (ILO rate) in Northern Ireland and UK Level July- Sept 2012 Quarterly change Annual change Rate % (level) (level) July- Sept July-Sept 2012 2011 Northern Ireland 67,000 +1,000 +4,000 7.6% 7.2% UK 2.51 million -49,000-110,000 7.8% 8.2% See Figure 4 below for the long-term trend in quarterly unemployment rates for both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole. Figure 4. Historical unemployment in Northern Ireland and UK (July-Sept rates 1996-2012) Source: DFP / NISRA 2012 8 8

Figure 5 below shows the Northern Ireland and UK monthly ILO unemployment levels from 2008 onwards. Current levels remain below levels in the Eurozone and the Republic of Ireland. Figure 5. ILO Unemployment in Northern Ireland, UK compared to international comparators. (Jan 2009 - September 2012). 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2009 Jan Mar International Unemployment rates (%) 2008 to Aug 2012 May Jul Sep Nov 2010 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2011 Jan March May July Sept Nov 2012 Jan March May July UK Northern Ireland ROI US EU 17 Source: Central Statistics Office RoI, ONS UK, DFPNI, Bureau of Labour Market Statistics US and Eurostat (various issues). Redundancies The Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETI) was notified of 106 confirmed redundancies in the month of September, compared with 62 in the same month one year earlier. Quarter 3 saw the Department being notified of 468 confirmed redundancies, which was a fall of 28.5 percent from the previous quarter, when the total stood at655. (See Table 4) There have been a total of 1,736 confirmed redundancies from January 2012 to September 2012, an increase of 34% for the same period in the previous year 1,296). When examined at the District Council level, the majority of confirmed redundancies during 2012 occurred in the Belfast District Council area (715), Armagh (133) and Ballymena (113). 9 9

Table 4 below shows a breakdown of redundancies by industrial sector during Q3 2012 compared with Q3 2011. Table 4. Redundancies in Northern Ireland. Industrial sector Q3 2012 Q3 2011 number % number % Manufacturing 63 13.4 27 5.9 Electricity, Gas, Air Conditioning supply 3 0.6 6 1.7 Water supply, sewerage, waste management Construction 4 0.8 10 2.8 Wholesale and Retail Trade 166 35.4 19 7.1 Transport 89 19 30 7.9 Hospitality (Accommodation and Food service) Information and Communication 30 6.4 28 7.9 Financials and Insurance 19 4 19 5.4 Real Estate activities 22 6.2 Professional, scientific and technical activities 21 5.9 Administrative and support service activities 17 3.6 56 15.9 Public Administration 16.5 Education 77 117 33.1 Health and Social Work 2 Total 468 100 353 100% 3. Inflation Consumer price index In Quarter 3 2012 UK inflation levels remained marginally above the Bank of England s target averaging 2.4% y/y, with the September figure sitting at +2.2% [see Figure 6]. This compares to the average inflation rate of 4.7 percent in Quarter 3 2011. The RPI and RPIX indices (the latter excludes mortgage interest payments) both averaged 2.9 % in Q3 2012 - down from the Q3 average of 5.3 one year earlier. 10 10

Figure 6. 6 CPI inflation % year on year, (Jan 2010 - Sept 2012) 5 4 3 2 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 CPI RPI RPIX (RPI excluding Mortgage Interest Payments) May-11 June-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Source: ONS (Sept 2012) Figure 7 presents an international comparison of year on year rates of inflation since 2008. 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0-6.0-7.0 International inflation: UK, Ireland, Euroarea and United States, Jan 2008 to Sept 2012 Sept July May March Jan-12 Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan-11 Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan-10 Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan-09 Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan-08 UK (CPI) Republic of Ireland (CPI) Euro area (17 countries) United States (CPI) Source: ONS UK, Eurostat, CSO Ireland, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (various issues) Inflation forecast According to the Bank of England s Inflation Report published in November 2012, The near-term outlook for inflation was higher than was anticipated in the August report, due to this year s rise in university fees. However, further out the risks to inflation around the 2 per cent target are judged to be broadly balanced. [see Figure 8]. 11 11

Figure 8. Bank of England inflation projections. (up to 2015). N.B.: BoE projections are made under the assumption of that the Bank Rate moves in line with market rates and the asset purchase programme remains steady at 200 billion. 4. Housing market Northern Ireland The University of Ulster Index examined house prices in Northern Ireland during Quarter 3 on the basis of a sample of 958 open market transactions (compared with 931 in Q2 2012). The results for the latest quarter show that the average house price in Northern Ireland had moved to 138,966 (from 139,633 in the previous quarter). The latest price represents a fall of 0.5 percent since Quarter 2 2012, and a similar fall of 0.5 percent from the same period one year earlier. The Halifax House Price Index presents a particularly upbeat picture for Q3 in Northern Ireland with prices reported to be up 18.8% over the quarter and up 13.8% over the year. The contrast in survey findings could be attributed to sample size, but overall as Figure 9 below demonstrates, the long-term trend is similar. 12 12

Figure 9. Northern Ireland House Price Indices. (Q1 2003 - Q2 2012). Source: University of Ulster / Halifax House Price Index NI Residential Property Price Index: The Department of Finance and Personnel published its most recent Property Price Index on 21 November 2012. The latest report shows that local house prices continue to fall but at a much slower rate. In between Q2 (April - June) 2012 and Q3 (July - September) 2012 residential property prices fell by 1 per cent. In addition the number of housing transactions was up 11.7 percent over the quarter and up 7 percent from the same period one year earlier. (See Figure 10). The DFP Index also shows that prices of residential property sold today are now just under half of their peak value (a 55% fall). 13 13

Figure 10: NI Number of Verified Residential Property Sales 2005-2012 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: DFP (2012) Residential House Price Index United Kingdom According to the Halifax house price index, house prices at the national level fell by 0.5 percent in the three months to September. At 159,486 house prices had fallen by 0.4% in September. This was the third consecutive monthly fall. The average UK house price in the three months to September was 1.2% lower than in the same period a year earlier. Republic of Ireland The latest National Residential Property Price Index published by the Central Statistics Office in September 2012, shows that residential property prices in the RoI rose by 0.5 percent in the month of August. However over the year to August residential property prices at a national level fell by 11.8%. House prices in Dublin were 56% lower in August than at their highest level in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are 63% lower than they were in February 2007. Residential property prices in Dublin are 57% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. The fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at 46%. Overall, the national index is 50% lower than its highest level in 2007. 14 14

5. Households and consumers Households resources According to figures from the Office of National Statistics (published on October 15th Real Household Disposable Income rose by 1.6% during Quarter 2 2012 to its highest level since Q4 2010. [see Figure 11 below]. The household saving ratio was 6.7 per cent in quarter 2, compared with 6.0 per cent in the previous quarter. The long-term average for the savings ratio is around 5 percent. Figure 11 9 UK Household Savings Ratio as a proportion(%) of Disposable Income, Q1 2000 to Q2 2012 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 201 201 201 201 201 Source: ONS 2012 Consumer Confidence Northern Bank s Consumer Confidence index continued to improve in September and moved to its highest level for nearly two years. The index which looks at the financial position of local households and their expectations for the year ahead, rose to 111 in the third quarter of this year, from 108 in quarter 2 2012. Various aspects of the consumer confidence index saw improvement with Household finances compared to 12 months ago in particular showing the greatest progress. Expectations for spending also marginally improved from very low levels and saw a five per cent increase in the number of respondents who said that they planned to spend more on big-ticket items. 15 15

Figure 12. Northern Bank Consumer Confidence Index for Northern Ireland. (Sep 2008 - Sept 2012). N.B.: The Northern Bank Consumer Confidence Index is compiled by surveying around 1,000 people in five key areas in Northern Ireland. UK Consumer Confidence: According to the GfK survey, consumer confidence levels also improved marginally in the UK in September 2012 -with the overall index score increasing one point to -28. However, confidence has been reported to have dipped again in the GfK October survey, with the UK sentiment index moving to its lowest level for six months. New Vehicle Registrations Data on new vehicle registrations in Northern Ireland were published by the Department of Regional Development in October. The new figures for Quarter-2 2012 show that 16,171 new vehicles were registered the lowest level for this quarter for ten years. In the same quarter new car sales amounted to 12,073 down by 0.7 percent from the same period last year and down 28 percent on the ten-year average for Quarter 2 (around 16,740). 16 16

Figure 13: New car registrations and all newly purchased vehicle registrations Northern Ireland. (Quarter 2 period 2001 2012). in Northern Ireland : New Vehicle and New Car Registrations, Quarter 2 2001 to Quarter 2 2012 29000 27000 25000 23000 21000 19000 17000 15000 13000 11000 Q2 2001 Q2 2002 Q2 2003 Q2 2004 Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 New Car Registrations All Vehicle Registrations Source: DRDNI, October 2012 6. Business Environment NI Index of Services Q2 2012 (+0.6%) The Q2 Index of Services (which draws on a sample of 1900 companies) released by DFP on October 17 th, shows that local output levels in the private service sector fell by - 1.0% over the quarter (provisional data). This is the sixth quarter-on-quarter decrease in NI in the last eight quarters. Over the quarter, all of the subsectors contributed to the decrease in the index, with the Business services and finance sector falling by 1.5%; the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service activities sector decreased by 1.0%; the Transport, storage, information & communication sector decreased by 2.5% and the Other services sector fell by 0.3%. The index remained some 16.6% below the peak recorded in Q3 2006, whilst the UK index increased by 5.1% in the same time period. 17 17

Source: DFP, October 2012 NI Index of Production Q2 (-5.0%) The DETI Index of Production, (published on 17 October 2012) for the second quarter of 2012 shows output levels in Northern Ireland decreased by 5.0% compared to Quarter 1. This compares with a marginal decrease (-0.7%) for the UK as a whole over the same period. This quarter s decrease in production in NI is the third fall in output over the last eight quarters. The NI index remains some 12.9% below the peak (recorded in Q2 2008), whilst the UK Index is reported to have fallen by 11.2% in the same period. Source: DFP (October 2012) 18 18

Company liquidations Q3 Data from the Insolvency Service of the Department of Enterprise Trade and Investment (DETI) show a total of 95 company liquidations in Northern Ireland in Quarter-3 2012. This is down 20 percent from 119 company liquidations in Quarter 2. Compulsory liquidations decreased marginally in Quarter-3 (from 73 to 60) over the quarter and voluntary liquidations also fell (from 46 to 35). In terms of total liquidations, the figure for Quarter 3, although was up 15.8% compared with the same period one year earlier. [see Figure 16) Figure 16: Company liquidations Northern Ireland. (Quarterly data from 2002 to Q3 2012). 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Compulsory and Voluntary Liquidations, Northern Ireland. Q1 2002 to Q3 2012 Compulsory Liquidations Voluntary Liquidations Bank of England: Agents Summary of Business Conditions. The Bank of England released its Agents summary of business conditions in November 2012. The latest survey revealed the following points: Growth in demand for consumer goods had picked up very modestly. Gradual growth in spending on consumer services had continued. (There were also suggestions that sales of some higher-ticket items, such as furniture, had begun to revive as households replaced their existing durables). Prospects for growth in business investment remained very modest. Export growth had slowed further, with weakness in demand reported to have spread further within the euro area. Demand for business services had continued to grow at a slow pace. 19 19

Manufacturing output was becoming more affected by weakening international trade prospects. The Funding for Lending Scheme appeared likely to have a more immediate impact on the availability of residential mortgage lending than on business lending. Exchange rates and interest rates Quarter 3 Exchange rates: / and /$ Sterling has been broadly stable since the middle of 2012. While strains within the euro area contributed to some appreciation of sterling during Quarter 2. Since then the perceived lessening of euro risks after the ECB September announcement around unlimited bondbuying have helped to support the euro. Overall, developments in the euro area have contributed to sterling appreciating by around 8 percent from its trough in the summer of 2011. Figure 17. Exchange rates: GBP/EUR and GBP/USD. (Quarter-3 2012). 1.65 1.6 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 Source: OANDA Sterling against Euro and Dollar Q3 2012 07/01/2012 07/05/2012 07/09/2012 07/13/2012 07/17/2012 07/21/2012 07/25/2012 07/29/2012 08/02/2012 08/06/2012 08/10/2012 08/14/2012 08/18/2012 08/22/2012 08/26/2012 08/30/2012 09/03/2012 09/07/2012 09/11/2012 09/15/2012 09/19/2012 09/23/2012 09/27/2012 GBP:Eur GBP: $ Interest rates. The Bank of England Rate is maintained at 0.5% since March 2009 and it is expected to remain at this level until mid 2015. The 3-month LIBOR interbank rate (at which banks borrow funds from each other) averaged 0.78% throughout Quarter-3. 20 20

References. Bank of England Agents summary of business conditions November 2012. Bank of England Data from the database Interest & exchange rates. Bank of England Inflation Report November 2012. Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S.A.) CPI Detailed Report - Data for September 2012. Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S.A.) The employment situation September 2012. CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) Seasonally Adjusted Standardised Unemployment Rates as available on the website. CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) Table Consumer price index by month. CSU (Central Survey Unit) NISRA Northern Ireland Construction Bulletin latest release. DFP -NI Monthly Labour Market Report - Sept 2012 and previous releases. DFP NI Residential House Price Index, November 2012 DETI-NI Northern Ireland Index of Production - November 2012. DETI-NI Northern Ireland Index of Services (experimental) Quarter 2 2012 DRD-NI (Department for Regional Development) Northern Ireland Road and Rail Transport Statistics (Oct 2012) and various releases from 2001 onwards. Eurostat Table HICP All index. GFK/Nop Consumer Confidence Barometer - latest releases. Halifax Historical house price data as available on the website. Halifax House Price Index Sept 2012. Nationwide House Price Index : new releases and database. Northern Bank Consumer Confidence Sept 2012 Oanda (Forex Trading and Exchange Rates Services) Historical exchange rates database as available on the website. ONS Consumer Price Indices Statistical Bulletin Oct 2012. ONS Gross domestic product preliminary estimate Quarter 3 2012, Nov 2012 ONS Data from the Claimant Count statistics, as available on the ONS website. ONS Data from the Labour Force Survey as available on the ONS website. ONS Data from Time Series Data - UK Economic Accounts database. ONS Data from Time Series Data - Consumer Price Indices database. The Insolvency Service Insolvency Statistics, in particular the table Insolvencies in Northern Ireland. University of Ulster Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index - for Q2 2012 and previous releases. 21 21

22

Danske Bank is a trading name of Northern Bank Limited and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in Northern Ireland R568 Registered Office: Donegall Square West, Belfast, BT1 6JS Northern Bank Limited is a member of the Danske Bank Group. www.danskebank.co.uk Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q3 2012 This is the opinion of Danske Bank, on occasion based upon research conducted Danske Bank at the is a time trading and name obtained of Northern from sources Bank Limited. believed Registered to be reliable. in Northern This Ireland may be R568. subject Registered to change Office: without Donegall notice Square and is not West, a personal Belfast BT1 recommendation. 6JS. Northern Bank Limited is a member of the Danske Bank Group. www.danskebank.co.uk 2012.11 2012.11 23