Asda Income Tracker Report: January 2012 Released: February 2013 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324 2850 w www.cebr.com Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Contents Asda Income Tracker Introduction 02 Update note 03 Headlines 04 Constructing the Income Tracker 05 Dashboard 06 Income Tracker trends 07 Cost of living 09 Labour market 11 Contact 12 Data charts & tables 13 Method notes 17 Disclaimer 20 1 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Introduction Asda Income Tracker Although our latest figures show a small but welcome improvement in monthly spending power, there remains a big difference between what people have in their pockets and what they are confident in spending. Families are continuing to look at ways to cut their spend and make their budgets go further. Nearly half of mums, for instance, are only part filling their cars with petrol, while many shoppers in our stores have told me that they are having to budget more than ever before. With 40% of Asda mums predicting that their quality of life and spending power may never return to pre-recession levels, it is crucial that the retail industry takes action and invests in keeping the cost of essentials down. Andy Clarke Asda President and CEO 2 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
. Methodology update January 2013 Headlines The January 2013 edition of the Income Tracker report and its back history is based on an updated base dataset and method. In order to keep the Income Tracker model relevant and up to date with the latest data on how household finances are faring, we have implemented the following changes to the way the income tracker is calculated: Use the results of the most up to date ONS Living Costs and Food Survey figures on household spending (the 2012 edition, which gives data on 2011), which updates the base data on essential spending and hence the relative weights of different goods and services Using the latest data on family incomes from the Living Costs and Food Survey, we have been able to better model the effects of changes to income tax on the average household. As you ll appreciate this makes the latest vintage of Income Tracker data not directly comparable with previous versions but the time series now available is as up to date as possible with the latest detailed data on household expenditure and income. Please see page 17 for further detail. The below table gives you an idea of the impact of these changes. The new model shows a higher year on year increase than would have been reported using the old model in January, a change from a 2 year on year increase to a 5 year on year increase. This is partly due to stronger employment data continuing to emerge (labour market data are released two months in arrears to inflation data) but also reflects the changing basket of purchases and the way gross and disposable incomes are computed from the latest ONS data. However, the big picture is that the annual change in the income tracker is down from larger annual increases seen in the second half of 2012 but annual gains are still occurring due to the rise in employment, with employment reaching a new record high and the continuing effects of the increase in personal income tax allowances. A detailed briefing on the revisions is available on request. Year on year changes in the Old version ( ) (with New version ( ) income tracker revised labour market data) Dec 2012 +1 +5 Jan 2013 +2 +5 3 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Headlines Asda Income Tracker Headlines The average UK household had 158 a week of discretionary income in January 2013, up by 5 on the same month a year before but remaining 3 below the level in January 2011. Inflation on the cost of essential spending items stood broadly unchanged at 2.9 per cent in January. Housing costs, including rent, home fuels and mortgage interest payments continue to push up the cost of living. Employment gains over the last year have helped to boost total household income growth as employment rose by 584,000 over the 12 months to December 2012. However, an uncertain economic outlook continues to hold back wage increases; average earnings grew year on year in the three months to December by just 1.3 per cent, the slowest rate in two and a half years. It is encouraging to see an annual increase in household discretionary incomes. However, it is clear that a cautious outlook remains for family finances and annual growth on the Income Tracker may slow later in the year. Further public sector job losses are planned for 2013 and wage growth remains very low. In addition, inflation is likely to remain elevated, pushed up over the coming months by rises in the cost of housing and transport. The recent rise in oil prices is likely to put upward pressure on the cost of petrol in the coming months. Asda family spending power was up by 5 year on year (a 3.4% annual increase) Rob Harbron Economist, Cebr 4 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Constructing the Asda Income Tracker Model Total household income 702 per week - e.g.. national insurance contributions, income tax Taxes = Net income 580 per week e.g.. wages, investment income, pensions, social security, self employment earnings 122 per week i.e. take home pay Net income 580 per week - e.g.. food, clothing, housing costs, bills, transport, communication costs, health, children s schooling, house maintenance and repair Cost of living = Average family spending power 158 per week i.e. take home pay 422 per week eg. holidays, cinema, theatre, eating out, toys, sports, savings, jewellery, national lottery and other gambling payments, computer software and games 5 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Asda Income Tracker Dashboard: January Dashboard Indicator Regular earnings growth* (Dec) Employment growth* (Dec) Unemployment rate** (Dec) Net income Mortgage costs Food Vehicle fuels Housing & utilities Essential item inflation Family spending power Annual percentage change 1.3% (excl. bonuses) 2.0% (+584,000 employment on year) 7.8% (-0.6 % points on year) 3.4% 4.5% 4.2% -0.8% 3.6% 2.9% 3.4% Latest trend KEY IMPROVEMENT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DETERIORATION * three months to month stated **unemployment rate for three months to month stated 6 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Strong employment growth helps to boost discretionary incomes Income Tracker Trends The Asda Income Tracker was 5 a week higher in January 2013 than a year before Household discretionary incomes excluding bonuses showed a further year-on-year increase in January. Annual growth in discretionary incomes is being supported by gains in employment despite the economy (as measured by GDP) failing to grow in 2012. There was a net annual gain in employment of 584,000 in the three months to December 2012. However, family incomes remain under pressure; with pay growth exceptionally low, discretionary incomes are still some 3 a week lower than in the same month two years ago. Rapid increases in the cost of living continue to weigh down on further gains to discretionary incomes. Once the effect of bonus payments are included, discretionary incomes rose by 6 year on year in January. Year-on-year change in Asda income tracker, 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 - 10-15 - 20 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 7 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
However, rapid cost of living inflation holds back spending power Income Tracker Trends The Asda Income Tracker was 5 a week higher in January 2013 than a year before The average UK household had 158 a week in January 2013, up from 153 in the same month a year before. Net household incomes increased year on year by 3.4 per cent, boosted by the 2.0 per cent annual gain to employment, the April 2012 benefit uprating and the increase in the income tax free personal allowance. However, this still remains well below annual increases of closer to 5 per cent in the run up to the financial crisis. Inflation on essential items continued to eat up take home pay in January, with the price of essentials rising by 2.9 per cent. Contributions to annual change in the Income Tracker (excluding bonuses), January 2013 Net Income Essential spending Income Tracker - 20-15 - 10-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 8 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Cost of non-discretionary items continues to rise faster than overall inflation Cost of living Inflation on essential items such as housing, transport and food stood at 2.9 per cent in January 2013 Inflation on the headline consumer price index stood on hold for the third consecutive month in January, at 2.7 per cent, remaining notably ahead of the Bank of England s target rate of 2.0 per cent. However, inflation on the cost of essential items such as rent, utilities, mortgage payments, transport and food continued at a faster pace, standing overall at 2.9 per cent in January. Growth in the cost of living is not expected to slow significantly in 2013, as the prices of regulated items such as utilities, rail fares and university tuition fees continue to add up to one percentage point to the headline rate. Inflation on the consumer price index and essential item inflation, annual change to January 2013 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% The retail price index (RPI) measure of inflation stood at 3.3 per cent in January, up from 3.1 per cent in December. CPI Essential items 9 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Housing costs continue to put pressure on family budgets Cost of living The main factors putting pressure on family discretionary income in January were: Housing costs continued to add 0.5 percentage points to consumer price inflation in January, with strong increases in both rents and home fuel bills. Food price inflation continued to climb to reach 4.2 per cent in January, its highest rate since April 2012. Shortages of vegetable stocks in the UK have led to more being sourced from Europe, pushing up costs. Mortgage interest payments continued to rapidly rise year on year, by 4.5 per cent in the year to January, well above the average of 2.7 per cent for 2011 and 2012. One factor easing the pressure on household incomes in January was petrol and diesel prices, which fell back year on year by 0.8%. However, rising oil prices have led to significant price gains at the pump in more recent weeks, so this effect is likely to be short-lived. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Inflation of selected goods, annual change to January 2013 10 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Employment rise in 2012 boosts incomes but average pay growth weak Labour Market Earnings growth slows despite strong net job creation 10% UK unemployment rate (LHS), per cent and 3-month annual growth in regular pay (RHS), per cent 5.0% The total level of employment in the UK continued to climb to record new highs during the three months to December, with a 584,000 rise in employment compared to the previous year despite zero growth in the level of GDP in 2012 compared with 2011. The majority of the increase in employment came from full-time work only 190,000 of the rise was part-time work. 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% The unemployment rate stood at 7.8 per cent in the three months to December down from 8.4% a year ago. 3% 2% 1.5% 1.0% However, reflecting the weak growth in the economy, average earnings rose year on year by just 1.3 per cent in the three months to December, the slowest rate since June 2010. 1% 0% Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 0.5% 0.0% Unemployment rate Earnings growth 11 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Data and Method Appendix Please find attached method notes and the tabulated date. Asda produces a monthly income tracker report with a more comprehensive report every quarter. For further information please contact: Bee Hessell PR Manager Email Bee.Hessell@Asda.co.uk Tel 0113 826 3448 12 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013 2012
Monthly Asda Income Tracker Figure 1: Asda Income Tracker and year-on-year change (excluding bonuses) 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 Asda Income Tracker tables 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Asda Income Tracker (LHS) Asda Income Tracker annual % change (RHS) 13 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Monthly Asda Income Tracker Figure 2: Comparison of year-on-year change in Asda Income Tracker including and excluding bonuses 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 - 10-15 - 20 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Asda Income Tracker tables May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Asda Income Tracker including Bonuses Asda Income Tracker excluding Bonuses 14 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Monthly Asda Income Tracker Asda Income Tracker tables Figure 3: Twelve-month moving average of Income Tracker (excl. bonuses) level 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 15 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Monthly Asda Income Tracker Asda Income Tracker tables Table 1: Average UK household Income Tracker, per week, current prices, excluding bonuses Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker January 2009 159 January 2010 165 January 2011 161 January 2012 153 January 2013 158 February 2009 157 February 2010 164 February 2011 159 February 2012 152 March 2009 159 March 2010 164 March 2011 159 March 2012 152 April 2009 163 April 2010 162 April 2011 155 April 2012 155 May 2009 162 May 2010 162 May 2011 155 May 2012 158 June 2009 163 June 2010 162 June 2011 155 June 2012 160 July 2009 164 July 2010 163 July 2011 155 July 2012 161 August 2009 163 August 2010 163 August 2011 153 August 2012 160 September 2009 163 September 2010 164 September 2011 151 September 2012 159 October 2009 164 October 2010 164 October 2011 152 October 2012 157 November 2009 164 November 2010 163 November 2011 152 November 2012 157 December 2009 163 December 2010 160 December 2011 151 December 2012 155 2009 Average 162 2010 Average 163 2011 Average 155 2012 Average 157 16 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Method update Method notes From February 2013, the income tracker has been updated in two important ways: 1) From February 2013, the base spending and gross income data from which the Asda income tracker is derived has been updated. Detailed data on family expenditure and income come from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Living Costs and Food Survey 2012 Edition, which covers household expenditure and income in 2011. This makes the latest vintage of income tracker data not directly comparable with previous versions but the time series now available (as in the previous page) is as up to date as possible with the latest detailed data on household expenditure. 2) The method for calculating tax payments and hence net income has been improved Using the latest data on family incomes from the Living Costs and Food Survey, we have been able to better model the effects of changes to income tax on the average household. 17 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013 2012
Method The Asda income tracker is calculated from the following equations: Method notes Total household income minus taxes equals net income Net income minus basic spend equals Asda income tracker Total household income for the United Kingdom is derived from the Living Costs and Food Survey 2011 (released December 2012). This is updated on a monthly basis using official statistics on average earnings, unemployment, social security payments, interest rates and pension income. Earnings data from the Office for National Statistics that is released in the month of the report refers to the previous month. We forecast earnings data for the month of the report. Taxes are subtracted from total household income to estimate the actual amount that can be spent on goods and services, i.e. net income or disposable income. The average amount of tax paid is calculated using the latest version of the Living Costs and Food Survey. This is updated on a monthly basis using Office for National Statistics data and Cebr modelling. 18 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Method Method notes These components are based on official statistics and Cebr calculations. Net income is calculated by deducting our tax estimate from our total household income estimate. Basic spend (cost of living) figures are updated using monthly consumer price data and the trend growth rate in the volume of essential goods and services purchased over the most recent ten year period. A full list of items constituting basic (or essential ) spending was created in collaboration between Asda and Cebr when the income tracker concept was originally formed in 2008. This list is available on request. The Asda income tracker is a measure of discretionary income, reflecting the amount remaining after the average UK household has had taxes subtracted from their income and bought essential items such as: groceries, electricity, gas, transport costs and mortgage interest payments or rent. The income tracker measures the amount left over to spend on discretionary purchases such as leisure and recreation goods and services. 19 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013
Disclaimer Disclaimer This report was produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), an independent economics and business research consultancy established in 1993 providing forecasts and advice to City institutions, government departments, local authorities and numerous blue-chip companies throughout Europe. The main contributors to this report are Cebr economists Rob Harbron and Charles Davis. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this report, the authors and Cebr will not be liable for any loss or damages incurred through the use of this report. London, February 2013 20 Centre for Economics and Business Research 2013