Week ending: August 3, library DEC 2 6 1973 The monetary base, the prime determinant of the money stock, has increased at a more rapid rate since the beginning of June than during the first five months of. From the four weeks ended June 1,, to the four weeks ended July 27,, the monetary base Increased at a 10.1 percent annual rate. During the first five months of, the base increased at only a 6.9 percent annual rate. The recent increased growth of the base is attributable to an increased growth of adjusted Federal Reserve credit (page 3), the major component of the base. Adjusted Federal Reserve credit has increased at a 12.4 percent annual rate since the beginning of June, after increasing at a slower 7.2 percent rate during the first five months of the year. The major component of adjusted Federal Reserve credit is Federal Reserve holdings of securities, which is determined by the Federal Reserve's open market operations. By increasing its holdings of securities, the Federal Reserve increases bank reserves and currency in circulation (which comprise the monetary base). Over extended periods, the growth rates of the base and the narrowlydefined money stock (Ml) tend to be close. Over shorter time periods, the growth rates can vary because of changing portfolio decisions of the public and banks, but increases or decreases in the growth rate of the base still tend to change the growth rate of Ml in the same direction. The recent increase in the growth rate of the base has coincided with an increased growth rate of Ml. Ml has increased at a 12.1 percent rate since early June, after increasing at a 6.1 percent rate during the first five months of the year. Prepared by Released: August 5, 79 77
MILLIONS MONETARY BASE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK 138 136 134 132 130 128 126 124 2 16 SO 14 28 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 OCT NOV LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGi UST 3, 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 9 23 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 JAN FEB THE MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS), ADJUSTED FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY, THE MAJOR SOURCES OF THE MONETARY BASE ARE FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT AND THE GOLD STOCK. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DE SCRIPTION OF THE SOURCES AND USES OF THE MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE AS REPRINT NO. 31 FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 8/4/76 11/3/76 1/5/77 2/2/77 3/2/77 4/6/77 5/4/77 6/1/77 1/ 5/77 7. 1 2/ 2/77 7.0 5.8 3/ 2/77 7.0 6. 1 7.0 4/ 6/77 7.3 6.8 7.7 8.2 5/ 4/77 7.5 7.2 8. 1 8.5 9. 1 6/ 1/77 7.0 6.5 6.9 7.0 6.9 5.6 7/ 6/77 7.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.2 6.2 8/ 3/77 7.6 7.4 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.2 7.8 10.5 2
MULTIPLIER ^ ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT 2/ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO 2.8 RATIO 2.8 MULTIPLIER MI IP. 22 2.419 2.413 2.428 2.420 2.440 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JULY 27, 124 122 120 1 118 I 16 1 r~ 124 COMIPOUNDED ANNUAL RA1[ES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS END INC ~ UST 3, FROM THE FOUR WEEKS END INC9l. MAY APR. _ MAR. FEB. NOV. _ 1, 4, 6, 2. 2, 3. 4, 122 120 12.9 9.7 10.0 9.9 9.2 7 R 7.9 1 18 1 16 AD. USTED :EDER/ L RES ERVE CF EDIT 114 114 112 112 /V. 110 N/ <\ FV 1!377 108 V 106. 29 114,37 3 JUL. 6 115 10 7 13 114 63 B 20 115 74 7 27 1 15 09 *. 3 116* 47 2 111 I I 11 1 111 _LLI 1 LI 1 2 16 3 n 14 9 R 1 1 9 JUL OCT SEP 111 11 1 1 NOV DEC 1 1 1 JAN 1 1 1 111 1 FEB MAR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i_1_1 APR 4 18 MAY 110 MILLIO NS 108 106 [±±ul 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 JUL LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: UST 3, V RATIO OF MONEY STOCK CMl 1 / MONETARY BASE. ^ FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT CONSISTS OF FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDINGS OF SFCtlRlTlF^ * tsmammt I J.ic.AT rasa skb 3
4 MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS CM2) BILLIONS 785.8 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 790 E 785 780 1 775 770 = 765 760 3 755 750 3 745 740 735 730 2 16 30 M 28 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 9 23 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 13 OCT NOV JAN FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JULY 27, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. 720 3 715 710 3 705 700 695 0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/28/76 10/27/76 12/29/76 1Z26/77 3/2/77 3/30/77 4/27/77 5/25/77 12/29/76 12.2 1Z26/77 12. 1 12.3 3/ 2/77 11.2 10.6 8.9 3/30/77 10.9 10.3 8.9 7.5 4/27/77 11.4 11.2 10.5 10.1 12.4 5/25/77 10.8 10.2 9.3 8.7 9.6 10.0 6/29/77 10.5 9.9 9.0 8.5 9. 1 9.2 6.3 7/27/77 11.1 10.8 10.3 10.0 10.9 11.4 10.0 12.6
BILLIONS 322.4 322.4 324.3 329.0 327.5 MONEY STOCK (Ml ) SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 335 330 325 320 315 310 305 300 2 16 30 H 28 11 25 S 22 6 20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 9 23 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 OCT NOV JAN FEB APR MAY LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JULY 27, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. THE MONEY STOCK CONSISTS OF DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY AND COIN HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC. TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: MONEY STOCK (Ml ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/28/76 10/27/76 12/29/76 1/26/77 3/2/77 3/30/77 4/27/77 5/25/77 12/29/76 5.7 1/26/77 6. 1 5. 1 3/ 2/77 4.9 3.4 3.2 3/30/77 5.0 3.8 3.9 1.9 4/27/77 6.8 6.7 8.4 8.3 14.5 5/25/77 6.3 5.9 6.9 6.5 9.7 11.9 6/29/77 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.7 7.8 8.5 2.2 7/27/77 7.0 7.0 8. 1 8.0 10.2 11.4 7.7 10.9
YI ELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 10.0 PERCENT T 10.0 [ 9.5 9.5 9.0 CORPORATE Aaa BONOS 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 PRIME BANK LOAN RATE 6.0 TTTT MUNICIPAL BONDS asie COMMERCIAL PAPER 5.5 5.0 90 DAY CD'SaaeK 4.5 4.0 4 IS Z 16 30 13 zr 10 Z4 8 ZZ 5 19 3 17 31 14 ZB II ZS 11 Z5 8 ZZ JUL NOV DEC SEP OCT JAN FEB MAR APR 6 ZO 3 17 1 15 Z9 1Z Z6 MAY JUL LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: UST 5, E 3 10 17 24 JULY 1 8 15 22 29. 5 * 12 19 26 6 90 DAY CD' S 36168 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 46 MONTH PRIME BANKERS ACCEPTANCES CORPORATE Am BONDS MUNICIPAL BONDS XX 5.53 5.46 5.42 5.39 5.40 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.43 5.65 5.53 5.51 5.50 5.48 5.44 5.43 5.41 5.40 5.42 5.60 5.42 5.42 5.41 5.39 5.35 5.38 5.41 5.44 5.49 5.69 8.00 7.98 7.94 7.94 7.91 7.93 7.94 7.94 7.96 8.00 5.72 5.65 5.55 5.61 5.61 5.63 5.64 5.62 5.62 N. A. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. mt BOND BUYER S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS. THURSDAY DATA. mm SEVENDAY AVERAGES OF SECONDARY MARKET RATES FOR THE WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.9 RELEASE. N.A. NOT AVAILABLE
SELECTED INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT PERCENT 8.0 7.5 35 YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES 7.0 6.5 6.0 DISCOUNT RATE 5.5 \ FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 5.0 4,5 THREEMONTH TREASURY BILL MARKET YIELD 4.0 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 SEP 14 28 11 JAN 25 11 23 FEB MAR 8 22 6 20 3 17 MAY 1 15 29 12 26 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: UST 5, E 3 10 17 24 JULY 1 8 15 22 29. 5 X 12 19 26 FEDERAL FUNDS lok 3MONTH TREASURY BILLS 1YEAR TREASURY BILL 35 YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES LONGTERM TREASURY SECURITIES 5.36 5.31 5.37 5.43 5.43 5.35 5.34 5.36 5.45 5.80 5.03 5.06 5.01 5.01 4.97 5.12 5. 16 5.21 5.27 5.36 5.42 5.43 5.40 5.41 5.39 5.46 5.51 5.60 5.70 5.82 6.71 6.68 6.56 6.54 6.49 6.60 6.62 6.69 6.77 6.88 7.52 7.48 7.41 7.41 7.38 7.43 7.43 7.46 7.49 7.53 X AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. 308 SEVENDAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.9 RELEASE. RATES ON LONGTERM TREASURY SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BACK OF ST LOUIS TREASURY BILL YIELDS ON DISCOUNT BASIS. ncocnvc w si. luuis.
NET TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS 451.6 452.2 456.4 456.8 458.2 460 455 450 445 440 435 430 425 420 415 410 405 400 395 390 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 ir 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 9 23 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 OCT NOV JAN FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JULY 27, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. * NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS: SAVINGS DEPOSITS, TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF #100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: NET TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/28/76 10/27/76 12/29/76 1/26/77 3/2/77 3/30/77 4/27/77 12/29/76 17.3 1Z26/77 16.9 18.0 3/ 2/77 16.0 16.2 13. 1 3/30/77 15.5 15.3 12.6 1 1.6 4/27/77 15.0 14.6 12. 1 1 1.3 1 1.0 5/25/77 14.2 13.5 11.1 10.2 9.7 8.7 6/29/77 13.9 13.2 11.1 10.5 10. 1 9.7 9.3 7/27/77 14.2 13.6 1 1.9 1 1.5 11.4 11.4 11.6 8
DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED billions 238.2 237.8 240.7 239.5 242.3 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 9 23 OCT NOV JAN FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JULY 27, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. 6 20 4 18 APR MAY 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/28/76 10/27/76 12/29/76 1/26/77 3/2/77 3/30/77 4/27/77 5/25/77 12/29/76 5.0 1/26/77 5.4 4.2 3/ 2/77 3.9 1.9 1.3 3/30/77 4.0 2.4 2.3 0.2 4/27/77 6.2 6.0 7.9 7.8 15.8 5/25/77 5.5 5.0 6. 1 5.6 9.9 12.6 6/29/77 5. 1 4.5 5.2 4.7 7.4 8.3 0.5 7/27/77 6.5 6.4 7.6 7.5 10.4 11.9 7.3 11.2 9
76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 _ / CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS WEDNESDAY FIGURES NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 76 _ LI 1 1 1 1 1 2 16 3C M JJ.I 1. LLL _L.I 1 11 21 8 77 A 90 JUL SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JULY 27. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.6 RELEASE. n ir JLJ.l LI 1...1 1 1 LLLL 1 1 1 1 1 1 _LL 1 L 1 1 1 LLL1 JUL WEEKLYAREPORTl!NGCCOt!wERCULSBANKSePOSIT 'SSUED IN DEN0MINATIONS OF #100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE / g 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT NOT SEAS. ADJ. CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT SEAS. ADJ. E 1 62.3 62.9 8 62.6 63.2 15 62.8 63.7 22 62.9 64.0 29 63.7 64.8 JULY 6 63. 1 64.0 13 62.4 62.8 20 62.4 62.4 27 62.7 62.3. 3 10 17 24 31 10
BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION MILLIONS OF DOLLARS e 2,0 1311 MILL QN$_. 29 3. 2!6 30 M 28 U 25 JUL 8 22 6 20 SEP OCT 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 NOV DEC JAN 9 23 FEB 9 23 6 20 MAR APR 4 18 MAY 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 JUL LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: UST 3. BUSINESS LOANS LL10NS OF DOLLARS ( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 124 _ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF ~THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING JULY 27, FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: MILLIONS.?.Z 2 18 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 JAN 9 23 9 23 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JULY 27, PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER E BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11
580 ^,, 560 MEMBER BANK DEPOSI SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQU (CREDIT PROXY ) COtWOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING JULY 27, FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: CREDIT CREDIT PROXY PROXY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TS IREMENTS =3 580 CREDIT PROXY ADJUSTED 1/ CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS CREDIT CREDIT PROXY PROXY ADJUSTED 555.9 545.6 551.3 559.9 550.9 559.5 I I I I i III 2 1 8 30 M 28 I 25 8 22 8 20 3 17 I IS 29 12 28 9 23 9 23 8 20 4 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 OCT NOV JAN FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JULY 27, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.9 RELEASE. " CERTA INF0THER'N0NDEP0l(TTi0URCK?'C'AL ^ EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF 12