Bank Austria Economics & Market Analysis Austria Austrian Economy February http://economicresearch-e.bankaustria.at
Austrian Economy Author: Walter Pudschedl Imprint Published by UniCredit Bank Austria AG Schottengasse -8 Vienna Telephone + ()-97 Fax + ()- E-Mail: econresearch.austria@unicreditgroup.at As of February Bank Austria page
Austrian Economy Revision ) Revision ) Revision ) Revision ) GDP (real, in %)...8 Inflation (CPI in %).9.. ) Revision since the last report of December The Austrian economy grew by. per cent in GDP growth of only.8 per cent expected in We believe the economic downturn in Austria bottomed out in the fourth quarter of, with GDP growth declining slightly, by. per cent. The economy will pick up only very slowly in the course of. We expect moderate growth of.8 per cent in, following a dynamic upturn of. per cent in as a whole. Inflation falls to. per cent in December further decline likely due to commodity price trends Retail sales down by a real per cent in the general climate remains unfavourable Labour market impacted by weaker economic activity unemployment will rise in, with employment growing more slowly In December, inflation eased to. per cent year-on-year as a result of a slower rise in fuel and household energy prices. This trend will continue in the next few months. Inflation will decline to. per cent in from an average. per cent in. Retail sales rose by a nominal. per cent from January to December ; adjusted for inflation, this corresponds to negative growth of. per cent. The prospects for are not particularly favourable in light of a weaker economic outlook, the deterioration in the labour market and the forthcoming austerity measures. The rise in unemployment continued into, while growth in employment is losing momentum. This trend will continue in the first half of the current year, at least, and unemployment will increase slightly, to.9 per cent (or. per cent). Upward trend in industry moderate growth in Weak export momentum at year-end rise in trade deficit In, the budget deficit amounted to. per cent of GDP, and public debt amounted to 7. per cent of GDP austerity measures in the offing The current Bank Austria Purchasing Managers Index shows that Austria s industrial sector has overcome the short period of recession as of the beginning of. The growth outlook for is moderate, given the weaker global environment. We currently expect industrial output to rise by about per cent in real terms. The slowdown in economic growth is reflected in the export data now available for November. Austrian exports reached record levels in, but the trade deficit nonetheless widened markedly. Business outlook surveys and the situation regarding incoming orders suggest that the turnaround took place at the turn of the year. Export growth will nevertheless remain moderate in. Preliminary estimates put the budget deficit for at about EUR bn or. per cent of GDP, which is much lower than the original target figure. The rise in public debt also remained below budget thanks to the more favourable budget developments, reaching about EUR 7 bn or 7. per cent of GDP at the end of. The package of measures adopted by the government to reduce (structural) new debt to.9 per cent of GDP by involves consolidation requirements of EUR 9. bn (or EUR 7 bn in structural terms). As the package is relatively moderate, the negative impact on the Austrian economy will remain negligible. Bank Austria page February
Austrian Economy Austrian Economy Austrian Economic Forecast forecast 8 9 Real change in % GDP. -.8...8. Private consumption.8 -...8.8. Public consumption.. -....7 Gross fixed capital formation*).7-8....8. Investments in plant and machinery -.7-9.7. 8... Investments in construction. -7. -.9... Exports. -. 8...9. Imports. -.8 8.... CPI (change in %)...9... HCPI (change in %)...7... Current account (in EUR bn).8 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. Current account (in % of GDP).9.7.... Employment in s**) 8 7 7 change in %.7 -..8.9..7 Unemployment rate (nat. def.).9 7..9.7.9.8 Unemployment rate (EU def.).8.8.... Unemployed (annual average in,) General gov. balance (in % of GDP) -.9 -. -. -. -.9 -. Public-sector debt (in % of GDP).8 9. 7.8 7. 7. 7. Nominal GDP (in euro bn) 8 7 8 *) excluding changes in inventory **) excluding persons drawing maternity benefits, military service and training Bank Austria Bank Austria
Austrian Economy - Forecast GDP (real) Inflation (CPI) forecast.7.7.7.....7...9.9.8 - - - - -.8 - - - 7 8 9 / / / / / / / /7 /8 /9 / / / / Wesentliche Rahmenbedingungen estimate forecast forecast 8 9 (Real change in %) GDP.. -.8...8. Eurozone GDP growth.8... Private consumption..8 -...8.8. Public consumption.9.. -....7 US GDP growth..7.. Gross fixed capital formation..7-8....8. UniCredit MIB Investments in plant and machinery -. -.7-9.7. 8... Investments in construction.. -7. -.9... Exports.. -. 8...9. Imports 9.8. -.8 8.... (yearly average) CPI (change in %)....9... HCPI (change in % )....7... USD per euro..9.9 n.a. forecast Employment (change in %)*).. -...8..7 Crude oil (USD per brl)* 8 9 Unemployment rate (nat. def.) 7..9 7..9.7.9.8 Unemployment rate (EU def.).9.8.8.... -y gov. bonds... n.a. General gov. balance (in % of GDP) -. -.9 -. -. -. -.9 -. -months money.8.9.7 n.a. Public sector debt (in % of GDP).7.8 9. 7.8 7. 7. 7. UniCredit MIB, Thomson Reuters * Futures *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes February
Austrian Economy - Data 8 9 IV I II III IV / / / 7/ 8/ 9/ / / / / Bank Austria Business Indicator. -.7...8.9.....9.... -. -. -.. GDP growth (prev. quarter, annualised). -.8......8 -. Industrial confidence Eurozone -8-9 - - -7 - - -7-7 -7-7 Germany -7-8 - -7 - - - France -9-8 -9 - - - -9 - -8-8 -9 - -7 Italy -8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Netherlands - - - - - - - - - - - -7 - - Spain -8 - - - -9-9 - - -7 - - - - - - - -7-9 - Bank Austria Industrial confidence Eurozone -.9 -. -. -. - - - - - - -9 - - - - - Bank Austria Purchase Manager s Index 7...8...9. 9.9 8. 7....8. 8.7 8. 7. 9..8 Backlog of work 7 8 9 8 9 8 New export orders 8 8 8 8 9 9 Output expectations 7 9 7 8 8 7 8 7 9 9 Industrial confidence Austria -7-9 - - - -9 - - - -8 - - - - Industrial output change against previous year. -. 7. 9.. 9.... 8. 7.7. 7...9. change against previous month (saisonal adjusted). -.7...9 -.8 -.. Foreign trade Exports (change against previous year in %). -.. 9..8. 8.....8..9 9... Exports (chg. against prev. month, s.a. in %, m mov. av.). -...7.9 -. -..7 Imports (change against previous year in %).7-8.. 9.8.9.....9..9 8. 8...7 Imports (chg. against prev. month, s.a. in %, m mov. av.). -.... -. -.. Ex-Im (m cum., euro bn) -. -.8 -. -. -.8 -. -7.. -. -. -. -. -7. -7. -7. -7.7 Construction Confidence indicator - - -.7-8. - - -9 - -7 - -9 - - -7 - -8-7 February
Austrian Economy - Data 8 9 IV I II III IV / / / 7/ 8/ 9/ / / / / Retail trade Confidence indicator -. -..8. 9. 9.8 7. -. -. 7.8. 7.7..9 -. -.7 -. -.8-8.8 Retail trade nom. (change against previous year in %).... 8. -.8...... -..9...9.7 Retail trade nom. (change against previous year in %, mav.).......8.. Retail trade real (change against previous year in %)... -..7 -. -. -.... -. -.9. -. -. -.9 -. Retail trade real (chg. against prev. month in %, s.a., mav.)... -...... Automobile trade nom. (change against prev. year in %). -.. 8..9 8.. 7.. -.. 7..7 8..7 Tourism Overnight stay (change against previous year in %)...7.7.7...8 -. -.. -..... Labour market Employment*) (change against previous year in %).7 -..8.9...9..9.7...9..9..9.9.9 Employment (s.a., change against previous month in %) Unemployed (change against previous year in ) -. 8. -9. -. -. -. -8...8 -. -.7 -.8 -.9.8. 8.9 9.. 8. Unemployment rate (in %, s.a.).8.7......7....9.7.7.9... Prices CPI (change against previous year in %)...9...9............ HCPI (Change against previous year in %)...8....7.8..7.7.7.8.7.9.8.8. Prices of raw materials (change against prev. year in %). -.. 9... 8...8.8 9. 8. 8. 8..8.8. 8. 7.8 Crude oil (change against previous year in %). -. 8..9. 9.7.8.8. 8.......9... Financial market M Euribor...8.........9....8.8.. -year government bonds..9........9....8..9.7.9. USD per euro...............8.7...9 Total loans (change against previous year in %, eop) 7. -.7 -....8....8....7. Consumption loans (change against prev. year in %, eop)......8....8 7..7... *) excluding maternity/paternity leave, military service and training programmes February
Austrian Economy - Graphs GDP and industrial production GDP (yoy in %, real; left scale) Industrial production (yoy in %; m avg.; right scale) Industrial and consumer confidence Industrial confidence Consumer confidence - - - 7 8 9 Austria's exports and imports - - - - - - - - - - - - 7 8 9 Bank Austria Business Indicator Imports (yoy in %; m avg.) Exports (yoy in %; m avg.) - - - - - - 7 8 9 GDP (yoy in %, real) Bank Austria Business Indicator - - Economics - and Market Analysis 7 8 9 - - - February
Austrian Economy - Graphs Unemployed Unemployed (yoy in,; right scale) Unemployment rate (in %; seasonally adjusted; left scale) 8 - - 7 8 9 Employment Employed (excl. matern./patern. leave) - left scale yoy in % excl. matern./patern. leave, military serv. and train. progr. - right scale - 9-8 - 7 8 9 Inflation rate HCPI (yoy in %) CPI (yoy in %) - - 7 8 9 Retail trade Retail trade (yoy in %; real; m avg.; left scale) Confidence indicator (right scale) 8 - - - -8 7 8 9 8 - - -8 - February
Money market Euro area (in %) -M money (in %) -M-Euribor Repo Marginal lending facility Deposit facility 7 8 9 Euribor USD Libor 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 -M money (in %) UK Schweiz Japan UK Japan Japan Switzerland Schweiz 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 Financial forecasts 7// in m in 9m Euro-m money market... Forwards.8.9 Euro-y German bonds.9.. Euro-y Austrian bonds.9.. US$-m money market.8.. Forward.. US-y treasuries... CHF/Euro... Forwards.. US$/Euro...8 Forwards..7 Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Bank Austria; Forecast: UniCredit Research February
Long-term interest rates -Y Government bonds (yield in %) -Y Government bonds (yield in %). US Treasury Germany... UK Switzerland Japan............... 7 8 9.. 7 8 9. -Y Goverment bonds (yield in %) Interest rate differential Austria - Germany Austria..... 7 8 9.....8.... -. -. 7 8 9 February
Equity market USA - Euro area Germany - Euro area Dow-Jones (left scale) Euro-Stoxx (right scale) 8 7 8 9 DAX (left scale) Euro-Stoxx (right scale) 9 8 7 7 8 9 UK - Japan Austria - Euro area FTSE (left scale) NIKKEI (right scale) 7 7 8 9 ATX (left scale) Euro Stoxx (right scale) 7 8 9 8 February
Exchange rates USD per Euro........9.8 7 8 9........9.8 SFR per Euro.7...... 7 8 9.7...... Yen per Euro GBP per Euro 7 9 8 7 8 9 7 9 8..9.9.8.8.7.7... 7 8 9..9.9.8.8.7.7... February
Austrian Economy - Selected indicators Forecast 7 8 9 Change against prev. year in % GDP (real).7.7. -.8...8. Industrial output (real) 7.7..9 -. 7. 7... Gross fixed capital formation (real)...7-8....8. CPI (yearly average).....9... Unemployment rate (yearly average).8..8.8.... General gov. balance (in % of GDP) -. -.9 -.9 -. -. -. -.9 -. GDP (nom., Euro bn) 9. 7. 8.7 7.8 8.. 9.7. Per capita GDP (in euro),,,9,8,8,77, 7,97 in EUR mn Merchandise exports **),7,8 7, 9,79 9,9, 9,8 7,7 Merchandise imports **),, 9,8 97,7,, 7,9,88 Current account balance **) 7,8 9,,77 7,87 8, 7,7 7, 7, Current account balance (in % of GDP) **).8..9.7.... Foreign direct investment (inflow, net) **),,7,8,7,99,,, Gross foreign debt (end of period) 88,8,9 98,7 7,7 8, 9,,, Gross foreign debt (in % of GDP) 88. 98.7. 9..9 98. 9.8 9. Import cover (in months) *) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. EUR/USD (yearly average)..7.7.9..9.9 n.a. *) not useful for Austria as a member of the eurozone **) numbers are still forecasts Source: Bank Austria, OeNB, Wifo, UniCredit Research February
Austrian Economy Austrian Economy We invite you to visit the economic analyses on Bank Austria s website: www.bankaustria.at under "Analyses & Research" in the section "Economic Research" or directly at http://economicresearch-e.bankaustria.at If you would like to receive information on our most recent publications by e-mail, please subscribe to the newsletter Bank Austria EconomicNews on the website. If you have further questions, please send us an e-mail to econresearch.austria@unicreditgroup.at Disclaimer of liability The opinions of the authors do not necessarily reflect those of Bank Austria and those of the companies which have engaged the services of the authors. The information contained in this publication is not to be interpreted as an offer or invitation for the sale or purchase of securities of any kind. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed in this publication at any time without prior notification. Bank Austria