Why do projects go wrong? 为什么项目会出错呢? 项目 实际资本 100 万美元 实际完工时间成本超支进度超支取得成效 W Mackenzie & N Cusworth, 2016 2 China Mining 2018
Why did it go wrong? 为什么会出错? Project 项目 Category 类别 3 phase study process 3 阶段 Study scope complete 研究范围 Scope Frozen at Go Ahead 项目执行中 Permitted at Go Ahead 项目执行中 研究过程 完成情况 冻结范围 的许可 RGP5 Good 好 Degrussa Good 好 Tropicana Good 好 Kevitsa Not Too Bad 不太坏 FMG Stage 1 Not Too Bad 不太坏 E&G Not So Good 不太好 Karara Ugly 难看 Rocklands Ugly 难看 Kaunisvaara Ugly 难看 Minas Rio Ugly 难看 Sino Iron Ugly 难看 3 China Mining 2018 W Mackenzie & N Cusworth, 2016
And what about the confidence of Chinese studies? 那么, 中国研究的可信度如何呢? 1. Total available resource / reserve included 331, 332 and 333 可用资源量 / 储量总量包括 331, 332 和 333 2. Resources were estimated in 2D 资源量是用 2D 来估算的 3. Mining loss and dilution are 5% and 8% respectively 采矿损失率和贫化率分别为 5% 和 8% 4. The borehole spacing for detailed exploration is too great to define the small orebodies. Therefore exploration during capital construction and operation must be well developed. 用于详细勘探的钻孔间距太大, 无法定义小型矿体 因此, 在基建和运营期间必须进行充分勘探 5. The processability of the ore is similar with. The reserve of gold mine is deeper and is different from adjacent mines. It is necessary to undertake metallurgical testing processing tests in the future. 某矿石的可加工性与某某相似 某金矿的储量更深, 与邻近的矿山不同 未来有必要进行冶金试验和加工试验 4 China Mining 2018
And what about the confidence of Chinese studies? (2) 那么, 中国研究的可信度如何呢?(2) 6. Recommend evaluating paste vs filtered tailings deposition 建议评估膏体尾矿与过滤尾矿矿床 7. Since the orebodies of is deep, the possibility of geological disastrous occurrence such as rock burst, caving, landslide might increase. Therefore the geological study and protection must be reinforced in future work. 由于某矿体很深, 地质灾害 ( 如岩爆 崩落 滑坡等 ) 发生的可能性可能会增加 因此, 未来必须加强地质研究和保护工作 8. Total construction investment for this project is RMB 2.5 billion 该项目总建设投资为 25.0 亿人民币 a. Norm indices: shaft sinking & drifting and tailings will be prepared based on the Engineering Construction Budget Norm for Gold Industry which is issued by China Gold Association (2008); Building and erecting adopt 2010 Local Estimate Norm for Construction Engineering; 规范指数 : 根据中国黄金协会颁布的 黄金行业工程建设预算规范 (2008) 安排井巷工程和尾矿 ; 建设和安装工作采用 2010 年 建筑工程当地估算规范 5 China Mining 2018
Geological models may imply we know everything 地质模型或许暗示我们知道所有的东西 6 China Mining 2018
however we actually analyse only ~0.0001% of the deposit... 然而我们其实只分析了矿床的 ~0.0001% 7 China Mining 2018
and our understanding can change as we collect data.... 我们的理解会随我们收集数据的状况而发生变化 8 China Mining 2018
Having a structured study process is important 采用结构化的研究过程是很重要... 确定它可能是什么确定它应该是什么确定它将会是什么项目交付提取价值回报社区 W Mackenzie & N Cusworth, 2007 Increasing quantity of information & confidence in the project 增加项目的信息量和信心 Get approval from investors, lenders and government 获得投资者 贷款机构和政府的批准 Learn & improve Update with new technology 学习和改进 ; 使用新技术进行更新 9 China Mining 2018
so we improve our confidence through more detailed analysis...... 所以, 我们通过更详细的分析来提高我们的信心 Scope item Resource Confidence & Geologic Controls 资源可靠性和地质控制 Pit slopes 露天矿边坡 Ore Sampling and Test Work 矿石取样和测试工作 Operating costs 运营成本 Capital costs 资本成本 Scoping Study 概略研究 Inferred 推断的 Assumed 基于假定 Bottle roll 滚瓶试验 Analogue 类比 Database 数据库 Prefeasibility Study 预可行性研究 Indicated & Inferred 控制的和推断的 Based on interpretation 基于解释 Laboratory tests 实验室测试 1 st principles 第一原则 Database; Analogues 数据库 ; 类似物 Feasibility Study 可行性研究 Measured & Indicated (Inferred is upside) 探明的和控制的 ( 推断的是优势 ) Based on oriented core 基于定向岩心 Possibly pilot plant 可能是试验工厂 Quotations & 1 st principles 报价和第一原则 Quotations 报价 Operation 运作 Confirmed by grade control and production 由品位控制和生产确认 Based on face mapping 基于工作面填图 Confirmed by production 由生产确认 Confirmed by production 由生产确认 Too Late! 太迟了 10 China Mining 2018
or put another way, the amount of work done at each stage varies... 或换一种方式, 每个阶段所做的工作是变化的 定义程度 Most effort has been on defining the resource 研究阶段的定义程度 地质采矿项目执行 Here the effort is on designing the mine & verifying assumptions Cost of data collection (% of final capex) W Mackenzie & N Cusworth, 2007 2-5% 2-4% 1-3% Cost of studies (% of final capex) 0.2% - 0.5% 0.5-1.0% 1.5-2.5% 15-20% 11 China Mining 2018
... and will depend on the specific areas of sensitivity for each project. 这取决于每个项目的特定方面的敏感性 Amount of effort 努力程度 Less 少 More 多 Geological Continuity 地质连续性 Mining method 采矿方法 Good 好 Open Pit bulk 露采 大量的 Open Pit selective 露采 选择性的 Underground bulk mining 井下大量开采 Poor Underground narrow vein 井下窄脉开采 Ground conditions 第压情况 Good 好 Weak 弱 Water management 水管理 None 无 Plenty 许多 Processing flowsheet 加工流程 Simple 简单 Complex 复杂 Climatic issues 气象问题 Benign 良性 Challenging 挑战 Environmental & Social issues 环境和社会问题 Infrastructure 基础设施 Project Economics 项目的经济性 Minor 较小 Good or not material 好或非实质性的 Low opex, High IRR 低资本支出, 高内部收益率 12 China Mining 2018 Significant 显著 Remote 遥远 Marginal 临界
The platform for all studies is the geological model 所有研究的平台是地质模型 Tonnes / section 吨数 / 剖面 Average grade 平均品位 Tonnes / block 吨数 / 块体 Grade / block 品位 / 块体 Metallurgical data 冶金数据 Enables other software: 使其它软件 Pit Optimisation 矿坑优化 Scheduling 排产 Geotechnics 岩土 13 China Mining 2018
to which we add geotechnical, hydrogeological and metallurgical data 对那些, 我们加上岩土 水文和冶金的数据 14 China Mining 2018
so we can use powerful tools to extract more information from the data & evaluate options and detail 这样我们可以利用强大的工具从数据中提取更多的信息, 评估选项和细化... Model of Dom Est Fortuna Norte Americana Norte Americana Central Americana 1 Zaragosa Fortuna Sur Estanques Blancos Balmaceda Mesabi Americana Sur 15 China Mining 2018
but it is important to have a team who know the consequences of making inappropriate decisions.... 但拥有一个能够了解不当决定所带来后果的团队也很重要 The team should 这个团队应该 be led by individuals with relevant operational and design experience to understand practical constraints and possibilities 由拥有相关运营和设计经验的个人来领导, 以了解现实的约束和可能性 have an internal review process 拥有内部评审过程 This way, the designers can determine which areas are more or less critical, and set priorities for studies to verify the design parameters 这样, 设计者可以决定那个方面是多或是少的关键, 然后为研究设置优先, 从而证实设计参数 16 China Mining 2018
Due Diligence audits for financing 融资尽职调查 Banks and Stock Exchanges usually require review of projects by an independent consultant for any fund raising 银行和证券交易所通常会要求独立顾问对融资进行项目审查 The review will audit project documentation to verify study has been completed properly. 审查将审核项目文件, 以验证研究是否已正确完成 Common problems 常见问题 Incomplete audit trail linking resource estimate, mine plan and cashflow projections 连接资源估算 矿山计划和现金流预测的审计线索不完整 Inadequate understanding of geological controls & continuity 对地质控制和完整性的理解不够充分 Inadequate study effort with too many assumptions remaining 研究工作不充分, 存在太多假设 Metallurgical testing not representative 冶金试验不具代表性 Optimistic parameters 参过于乐观 17 China Mining 2018
Due Diligence audits for financing (2) 融资尽职调查 If study is broadly acceptable but needs specific issues resolved before financing can be approved, lending can be agreed if specific work done 如果研究得到广泛接受, 但需要解决某些具体问题才能获得融资, 则 Defined as Conditions Precedent 定义为先决条件 Debtors typically expect repayment within 3-5 years 债务人通常希望在 3-5 年内还款 Debt repayment takes precedent ahead of shareholders 优先于股东 If repayments are not made in time, bank may take control of asset and sell at a price to recover debt. Shareholders may lose all investment Equity investors expect attractive rate of return, no negative surprises and upside potential 股票投资者期望获得有吸引力的回报率, 并且没有负面意外和上升潜能 Over promising and under-delivering damages reputation 过高的承诺和过低的兑付将损害声誉 18 China Mining 2018
Summary 总结 Building a mine costs a lot of money 建设一座矿山的成本可能在 1 亿到 100 亿美元之间 We make decisions based on analysing ~0.0001% of the orebody 我们做出的决定是基于分析了 ~0.0001% 的矿体 A structured study process led by skilled people saves money 由技能人员领导的机构化的研究过程可以省钱 But getting it wrong 但是如果弄错了的话...( 代价会更大 ) 19 China Mining 2018
Get it right first time, don t take short-cuts. 所以, 第一次最好做对, 不要走捷径 20 China Mining 2018
Thank you 21 China Mining 2018
Scoping Study: What Could the project be? 概略研究 : 项目可能是什么样的? Often done to help verify project has potential to be economic and worth further investment. 通常用于帮助验证项目是否具有经济潜力, 是否值得进一步投资 Also helps define what additional data & studies are needed 也有助于定义需要哪些额外的数据和研究 Do we understand the geology well enough to select a mining method & develop realistic plans? 我们是否足够了解地质情况以选择采矿方法并制定切合实际的计划? Is it likely we can add mineable resources by drilling deeper or along strike? 我们是否可以通过深部钻探或沿走向来增加可采资源量? Is the processing likely to be simple or complex? 矿物加工可能是简单的还是复杂的? What are likely to be the key issues we need to solve? 哪些是我们可能需要解决的关键问题? 22 China Mining 2018
Scoping Study: What Could the project be? (2) 概略研究 : 项目可能是什么样的? Also used to check for Fatal Flaws 还可用于检查致命缺陷 Insufficient mineable material for infrastructure requirements 可采物料不足以满足基础设施要求 Lack of space for waste facilities 废弃设施空间不足 There can be several Scoping Studies in a project life 一个项目生命周期中可能存在几个概略研究 Also used to evaluate options for operating mines 也可用于生产矿山的选项评估 Typical cost: 典型成本 : Data collection: ~2-5% of project capex 数据收集 : 约占项目资本支出的 2-5% Study costs: 0.2-0.5% project capex (Rupprecht 2004) 研究费用 : 占项目资本支出的 0.2-0.5%(Rupprecht 2004) 23 China Mining 2018
Prefeasibility Study: What Should it be? 预可行性研究 : 它应该是什么? Follows extensive period of data collection 数据收集需要跟踪较长的时间 Infill drilling to provide significant portion of Indicated Resources 加密钻探以显著提供控制的资源量 Geotechnical and Hydrogeological studies 岩土工程和水文地质研究 Metallurgical studies 冶金研究 Preliminary environmental studies Principal objective: to evaluate options and select best option for the Feasibility Study 主要目标是评估选项并为可行性研究选择最佳选项 Also enables Ore Reserves to be reported, 还有助于报告矿石储量 Defines any outstanding data and studies required, and 定义所需的任何未尽数据和研究 Can be used to attract investors 可用来吸引投资者 24 China Mining 2018
Prefeasibility Study: What Should it be? (2) 预可行性研究 : 它应该是什么? The main features of the prefeasibility study are; 预可行性研究的主要特点是 : Mine design based on Measured and Indicated resources 矿山设计基于探明的和控制的资源量 Preliminary studies completed on geotechnical, environmental, and infrastructure requirements. 完成了岩土工程 环境和基础设施要求的初步研究 Bench scale metallurgical tests and preliminary process design completed. 完成了实验室规模的冶金试验和初步工艺设计 Cost estimates based on factored or comparative prices. Study accuracy 15% to 25%. 成本估算基于要素价格或比较价格 研究精度为 15% 至 25% Typical cost: 典型成本 : Data collection: ~2-4% of project capex Study costs: 0.5-1.0% project capex (Rupprecht 2004) 数据收集 : 约占项目资本支出的 2-4% 研究费用 : 占项目资本支出的 0.5-1.0%(Rupprecht 2004) If a light PFS is done for fund raising, the option studies must be done prior to the Feasibility Study starting 如果为筹集资金而进行 小型 预可行性研究, 则必须在可行性研究开始之前进行选项研究 25 China Mining 2018
Feasibility Study: What Will it be? 可行性研究 : 它将会是什么? This is intended to be the final step before approval by the relevant government authorities and for raising finance. 这是在获得相关政府部门批准和融资之前的最后一步 Detailed engineering aims to put flesh on the bones, but the project skeleton should not change 详细的工程旨在将骨架细化, 但项目骨架不应该改变 Details which can be deferred until later include: 可以推迟到以后的细节包括 : Factors which do not materially change the nature of the project 不会实质改变项目性质的因素 Minor details which can be accommodated within the project structure 可容纳在项目结构中的次要细节 Replaces any remaining assumptions with facts & analysis 用事实和分析代替所有余下的假设 Measured Resources for at least initial 3 years Quotes for key equipment and construction Studies verify key assumptions 26 China Mining 2018
Feasibility Study: What Will it be? (2) 可行性研究 : 它将会是什么? Risks should be considered & mitigations included 应考虑的风险及缓解措施包括 This is expensive 1.5-2.5% of total project capex (Rupprecht 2004) 这很昂贵 占总项目资本支出的 1.5-2.5%(Rupprecht 2004) Reworking the project details because of a new option adds cost & time 因新选项而重新设计项目详细会增加成本和时间 Is likely to be audited to secure financing 很可能会通过审计来获得融资 Needs to have a clear audit trail to provide proof & confidence 需要有明确的审计线索, 以提供证据和信心 27 China Mining 2018