China A-share strategy: What to do while awaiting a tailwind

Similar documents
Potential asset restructuring of Sinopharm subsidiary

1H11 earnings to triple yoy; we expect further re-rating. Buy

Hong Kong Banks: Rising funding divergence as rates rise

Lenovo announces agreement to acquire IBM s x86 server business

Apr premium: Still weak life FYP; P&C slightly below expectation

Enel details synergies with Endesa potential upside to estimates

Slower-than-expected sales growth; stabilizing margins; Neutral

Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852)

GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co

Weigao sold remaining 50% interest in JWMS to Biosensors

In line with expectations; steady NT growth, financing LT capacity

Russia gas supply favors gas utilities in the long term

The Private Sector Financial Balance As a Predictor of Financial Crises

Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Affordable Care Act

FX Swaps and Forwards

In line with expectations: Still waiting for a margin recovery

Channels and technology in focus; takeaways from China LED Day

Coal prices: April NDRC benchmark prices show further weakness

Buy. Coolpad Group Ltd (L) Coolpad and JD.com make strategic cooperation agreement; CL-Buy ACTION. Return Potential: 23% Equity Research

Targeted RRR cut: Small liquidity ease; more loosening needed

Credit crunch is near-term bearish, long-term bullish. David Greely Goldman Sachs & Co

Jeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co

China: Automobiles. Data Update: Introducing 2015 EPS estimates. Equity Research. Changes and Implications

In line with expectations; peak MUs delivery in 2014E; Neutral

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Issues for investors

Slack and Monetary Policy

Property investment and new starts growth weak in Jan-Feb 2014

Ping An shares pledged or used as collateral by CP Group

Italy: Banks. Fine tuning estimates ahead of 3Q10 results. Positive trend in NII and margins near term

MIIT issues TD-LTE licenses to three operators, as expected

The Lasting Effects of Uncertainty

Economic Outlook Too Much of a Good Thing

Data Update: Updating for 3Q16 sales - Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen

Why is the market so excited about Intel being a foundry for Apple?

Below expectations; yields still pressured, cost control is key

Long-term erosion of underlying rents offset by acquisitions; Sell

Coal: Potential resumption of production control likely a non-event

Global Themes and Risks

Shenhua Reuters: 1088.HK, Bloomberg: 1088 HK; YCM Reuters: 1171.HK, Bloomberg: 1171 HK

PICC P&C to acquire a 24.7% stake in PICC Health

Americas: Transportation. 3Q Preview: Low earnings expectations; remain defensive for now. Equity Research

View from the market Jahangir Aziz

Roaring Louder (23 24 June)

Meeting with management continue to buy ahead of NT catalysts

Revisiting Staples P/E under China s new normal growth outlook

Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20)

Americas: Managed Care. 10 years of health reform. We have a published a new 10-year industry model

What do Chow Sang Sang/Hengdeli results tell us about HK retail?

Above expectations: Balancing act to attain higher recurring income

Down to Neutral following outperformance

Wireless telecoms: The end of growth?

Europe Telecom Services

Contextualizing the potential impact of natural catastrophes

Realization of tariff cuts should help lift stock overhang; positive

Above expectations: better margin at GL; resilient perf. elsewhere

Rmb is back in the hot seat

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva

SINA Corporation (L) Lower Weibo value, target price on revised methodology; still Neutral COMPANY UPDATE. Neutral. Equity Research.

China: Automobiles Autoshow: Smaller luxury, expanding middle, rising local brands. Equity Research

Trailing PE Forward PE Hold 6 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 3.5% 5-Year Return: 21.4%

Solid longer-term growth outlook; coverage view to Attractive

SH-HK Connect (Part 3): The quant perspective

1Q16 retail sales point to softer core brand momentum

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva

Still positive post outperformance; 12m PT to 96, remain Buy

Jim O Neill Managing Director Head of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

All you need to know about the Golden Cross

Jun-06. Jul-06. May-06. JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)(Formerly known as J.P. Morgan Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.)

Measuring the TBTF effect on bond pricing: Supplemental data

Last week's rating: C Marketperform Percentile Ranking: 53 Data as of 07/06/2018

Trailing PE Forward PE Hold 5 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -1.8% 5-Year Return: -29.5%

52-Week High Trailing PE Week Low Forward PE Hold 14 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 27.3% 5-Year Return: 44.

52-Week High Trailing PE Week Low Forward PE Buy 17 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 33.6% 5-Year Return: 36.

52-Week High Trailing PE Week Low Forward PE Hold 14 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 39.6% 5-Year Return: 34.

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Quick Read: Weather Likely Weighed Upon Sales a Bit

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

Europe Energy: Oil - Refining

EARNINGS OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK. EXHIBIT 1: EUROPE EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS) BY SECTOR % change (y/y) Cons. Disc. Care

52-Week High Trailing PE Week Low Forward PE Hold 13 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -13.7% 5-Year Return: 52.

Trailing PE 8.9. Forward PE 8.0. Hold 7 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -17.0% 5-Year Return: -13.9%

52-Week High Trailing PE Week Low Forward PE -- NA 0 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -1.8% 5-Year Return: 3.6%

Trailing PE Forward PE Buy 3 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -35.3% 5-Year Return: 339.3%

Downgrading to Sell as structural issues begin to weigh on growth

Trailing PE 7.1. Forward PE 8.5. Hold 7 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 30.2% 5-Year Return: 70.0%

Luk Fook (590 HK) Hold (downgraded) Target price: HK$ HFY18 results beat, but downgrade from Accumulate to Hold on rich valuation

Trailing PE Forward PE -- Hold 1 Analyst. 1-Year Return: 8.6% 5-Year Return: 66.9%

Market Bulletin. China: Still sneezing hard. January 20, 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief

52-Week High Trailing PE Week Low Forward PE Buy 8 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 1.1% 5-Year Return: 73.1%

Philip Morris International Inc.

Trailing PE 4.8. Forward PE 8.6. Buy 2 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -10.6% 5-Year Return: 61.4%

Strong Buy 4 Analysts

Trailing PE Forward PE Buy 2 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -39.7% 5-Year Return: --

52-Week High Trailing PE Week Low Forward PE Hold 14 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 8.7% 5-Year Return: 43.

Trailing PE Forward PE 8.5. Buy 5 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -39.3% 5-Year Return: -91.2%

Developing Domestic Capital Markets to Finance Innovation Capacity in China and India

Trailing PE 9.2. Forward PE 8.5. Hold 15 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -10.8% 5-Year Return: 20.4%

A snapshot of the life of an applied economist

Trailing PE Forward PE Buy 27 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -16.3% 5-Year Return: 22.0%

52-Week High Trailing PE Week Low Forward PE 8.6. Buy 9 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -1.2% 5-Year Return: 21.1%

Trailing PE Forward PE Buy 2 Analysts. 1-Year Return: -25.2% 5-Year Return: -22.0%

Transcription:

Strategy A-share strategy: What to do while awaiting a tailwind Equity Research Liquidity improvement supports A-share rebound The A-share market has rebounded by 8.2% ytd, supported by easing global macro risks and improving domestic liquidity conditions. We revisit and fine-tune our sector preferences and recommend a list of small-mid cap growth stocks with appealing risk/reward profiles. Upgrade IT & Electronic components/shipping to neutral The A-shares ytd sector performance has seen a reversal in 2H211, with the high-beta sectors leading this ytd move. Based on improving sector fundamentals and less demanding valuations, we upgrade the IT & Electronic components and Shipping sectors from underweight to neutral. Overall, we maintain our preference for a mixture of low valuation domestic cyclicals (coal, securities) and consumption stocks (health care, auto, retailing, home appliances). We dislike telecom/utilities (unfavorable valuation), steel/chemical (weak sector fundamentals). Recommend a list of small-mid cap growth stocks Given market downside risk appears to have eased since 4Q211, we look for growth opportunities within the small-mid caps segment, following their underperformance in the past several months. We screen for a list of small-mid cap growth stocks (Exhibit 13), mostly from consumer-related sectors. Their valuations have turned more supportive vs. several months ago, while fundamentals still appear reasonably stable. We are less cautious towards small-mid caps Hanfeng Wang, Ph.D, CFA +86(1)6627-3318 hanfeng.wang@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Helen Zhu +852-2978-48 helen.zhu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +852-2978-1328 timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ben Bei +852-2978-122 ben.bei@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chenjie Liu +86(1)6627-3324 chenjie.liu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited 47 (X) SME Composite 12-m fpe / CSI1 12-m fpe (RHS) SME Composite fpe (X) 3.5 CSI1 fpe 42 3. 37 2.5 32 2. 27 1.5 22 1. 17 12 16.1X.5 7 26-5 26-11 27-5 27-11 28-5 28-11 29-5 29-11 21-5 21-11 211-5 211-11. Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-us affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. This report is intended for distribution to GS institutional clients only. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research

Fine-tuning sector views, recommending a list of small-mid cap growth stocks The A-share market has rallied by 8.2% ytd supported by easing global macro risks and improving domestic liquidity conditions. While we largely maintain our market views (see Liquidity should be improved further (January 4), and Fund flow should turn gradually more favorable (February 3)), we adjust our sector preferences and recommend a list of growth stocks based on recent fundamental developments and stock valuation changes. Key actions suggested are: 1) Upgrade the IT & Electronic components and Shipping sectors from underweight (UW) to neutral, based on improving sector fundamentals and undemanding valuation; 2) Looking for growth opportunities among select A-share small-mid cap growth stocks (mainly consumer-related names). Our sector preferences: How have our views changed? Our sector preferences ytd have been a mixture of low valuation domestic cyclicals (coal, securities) and consumption stocks (health care, auto, retailing, home appliances). This was to provide a balance between capturing potential market upside (on inexpensive valuations) and also protecting from any market downside (from continued macro uncertainties, especially pertaining to the property sector). We were underweight on telecom, utilities, shipping, and IT & electronic components in our October 25, 211 report (: 212 A- share Outlook: Growth slower, policy friendlier, and Liquidity should be loosened further, January 4, 212). In Exhibit 1, we show the ytd A-share performance by sector and note that sector performances have generally reversed from that in 2H211. Low valuation cyclical sectors with higher betas, which had underperformed significantly in 2H211, have outperformed ytd whereas relatively higher valuation and defensive sectors lagged, reflecting rising risk appetite amid a global equity market rally and improving domestic liquidity conditions. Consequently, the coal and securities sectors (overweight) have been among the top performing sectors as market interest in these high-beta sectors rose vs. in 4Q211, while the performance of the auto sector (overweight) was in-line with that of the market. The health care and retail sectors (overweight) underperformed with a positive sector return of around 5%. The telecom and utilities sectors (underweight) were among those that saw the most downside, while some other sectors, such as shipping and IT & Electronics (underweight) and banks, insurance, property (neutral), also underperformed ytd but by a lesser magnitude. We fine-tune our sector preference in this note based on recent developments in sector fundamentals and valuations, but we largely maintain our preference for a combination of low valuation domestic cyclicals (coal, securities) and consumption stocks (such as health care, auto, retailing, home appliances) all rated overweight. We still dislike the telecom/utilities because of unfavorable valuations (22.6X 212E P/E for the telecom sector, and 21X 212E P/E for the utilities sector), and the steel/chemical sectors because of weak fundamentals (please see the note by GS sector analyst, Sentiment very weak; 2Q demand rebound likely smaller magnitude, February 14, 212) all rated underweight. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2

Upgrade IT & Electronic components/shipping to neutral We make some sector preference adjustments based on recent market developments and changes in sector fundamentals. Specifically, we move the IT & Electronic components and Shipping sectors from underweight to neutral, while keeping our other sector weightings unchanged. Upgrade IT & Electronic components from underweight to neutral We had downgraded this sector to underweight (UW) in our 212 annual outlook (Growth slower, policy friendlier, October 25, 211), as our sector analysts had believed fundamentals (i.e., downcycle, earnings growth) had not reached a bottom yet, with valuations still high compared with the market amid an overall unfavorable tight liquidity environment. Recent developments that led to our change in view on the sector include: 1) Bottoming out of sector fundamentals appears to be in sight. Our GS tech team s inventory analysis suggests the sector fundamentals are approaching a trough, with inventory dollars at their lowest since 21. And they expect wafer shipments to rebound in March (Exhibit 2). (please see TSMC (233.TW): First take: end of correction confirmed; higher structural profitability, January18, Taking profits after recovery underway; TSMC off CL but still Buy, February 1, Inventory database update; ADI and Marvell earnings previews, February 21, 212). 2) Sector valuation has come down to a more sustainable level vs. several months ago. The sector is currently trading at 15.7X 12m forward P/E, close to the historical trough level we saw in late 28 (Exhibit 3, Exhibit 6). 3) Liquidity has been improving gradually, as suggested by the declining market rates (yield on the commercial discount bills has declined to 5.8% from around 1% in 4Q211), which we think should help to alleviate the tight liquidity situation faced by many small-mid cap tech companies. Despite these positive developments, we are not turning bullish towards the sector at the moment as our GS tech team thinks the slope of potential recovery is uncertain, although they believe sector fundamentals are approaching a trough. Upgrade Shipping from underweight to neutral We downgraded the sector in April 211, but we now believe there are signs of a turnaround in the sector: 1) Global macro risks appear to have eased during recent months, especially after the introduction of the ECB s liquidity provision to the EU banks, and better than expected macro momentum globally since late last year as suggested by our GLI index (Exhibit 4) as well as the BDI index bouncing back from recent lows (Exhibit 5). In our view, these signs suggest macro risks from the EU s debt woes and weak DM growth are easing, at least temporarily, which should be supportive to the Shipping sector one of the global cyclical sectors sensitive to changes in global macro momentum. 2) Seemingly less risk of a hard landing scenario in. This has been one of the major risks that have weighed on the shipping sector in 2H211, but recent data (such as the January PMI data) suggest market concerns over s hard landing may have been overdone. 3) Sector valuation is not demanding, in terms of P/B. Currently, the sector is trading at 1.4X 212E P/B, the lowest level since late 28 (Exhibit 8). That said, we are not turning bullish on the sector either, as the shipping sector s excess supply remains an overhang, and our sector analysts continue to see increase in idling and delays in newbuild deliveries (see Containership: Valuations reflect normalized returns, February 13). Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3

Screening for a list of small-mid cap growth stocks Small-mid caps have underperformed large caps (SME composite index vs. CSI3) by around 1% since 4Q211. We had been cautious towards small-mid caps in the A-share market due to their relatively high valuation and consensus earnings downgrade risks, especially given the tight liquidity conditions then (see : 212 A-share Outlook: Growth slower, policy friendlier, October 25, 211). However, given the easing in macro risks (e.g., ECB s liquidity provisions), less demanding valuations, and less tradable-sharereduction pressure in the coming several months (Exhibit 9), we think investors interests in those small-mid caps with good fundamentals and undemanding valuations should rise. We turned less cautious towards the small-mid caps in our note on February 2 (see Fund flow should gradually turn more favorable) as we see less downside risk after its significant underperformance since 4Q211. We suggested bottom-up stock selection within the small-mid caps segment. 1) Valuations for small-mid caps have come down to a more sustainable level vs. several months ago. The SME composite index is trading at 16.1X 12m forward P/E (based on WIND consensus earnings), which is the lowest level since late 28. The valuation premium over large caps (CSI1 index) has also shrank substantially since 4Q21 as the SME composite index (small caps) significantly underperformed the CSI1 index (large caps) (see cover exhibit). 2) Earnings downgrade risks remain, but likely already largely priced in. WIND consensus still expects 2%/37% earnings growth for the SME composite index in 211E/212E, but we don t think the market has factored in such a high growth expectation given that the SME valuation is only slightly above the historical trough level in late 28. That said, we are not turning bullish on the entire small-mid cap segment, as we think uncertainties (such as how the demand will evolve going forward) for the property and FAI-related small-mid caps sectors still remain. Given the non-consumer related sectors relatively high weighting in the SME composite index (around 47%, Exhibit 11), we believe their performance may continue to weigh on the overall performance of the SME index. We suggest focusing on those stocks/sectors with relatively stable growth and undemanding valuations, most of which are from the consumer-related sectors (health care, consumer discretionary, IT & electronic components, etc). Historically, consumerrelated sectors have generally delivered higher and less volatile average earnings growth of 3.4% vs. 19.4% for non-consumer related ones (during year 25-21, see Exhibit 1). The valuation of consumer-related sectors has come down to around 18X 12-m forward P/E (Exhibit 12) vs. historical average of 24X, due to the sell-off in small-mid caps in 4Q211, which we think is not demanding against the backdrop of historical average earnings growth of around 3% (implying PEG of only.6). Note that our preference for consumer-related growth stocks is consistent with our overall sector preference for a mixture of consumption and low valuation domestic cylicals (coal and securities), even though our favored consumption sectors generally have a relatively higher weighting in small-mid caps and our preferred cyclical sectors tend to have a low representation in small-mid caps (Exhibit 11). Screening for medium-long term outperformance candidates. Given that small-mid cap stocks differ significantly in terms of corporate governance, industry position, growth potential and valuation, we suggest using bottom-up stock selection to identify potential medium-long term outperformance candidates. We re-run our small-mid cap screen for a list of our preferred A-share small-mid caps using the following criteria (Exhibit 13): Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4

1) Covered by our GS/Gao Hua A-share sector analysts; 2) A leader within its own sub-sector and a market cap of between Rmb5 bn-rmb35 bn. 3) Has a positive rating from our sector analyst ; 4) Earnings CAGR for the next two years expected to be higher than the earnings growth we expect for large cap CSI3 index (above 2%, based on GS/GH estimates); 5) Valuation less than 3X 212E P/E (based on GS/GH estimates), which we think is generally the high-end of the acceptable valuation range for growth stocks for local A- share investors. Results of our screen include a number of stocks from consumer discretionary (Huayu Auto, CITS, BesTV New Media, Jinjiang Hotel, Huangshan Tourism), healthcare (WH Humanwell, Yuyue) and IT-related sectors (Fiberhome, BJ Ultrapower), which are mostly of the consumer related theme. The above list of stocks has underperformed the CSI3 by 8.4 ppt since 4Q211 (Exhibit 14). According to our sector analysts estimates, these stocks could see average earnings growth of 35% in 212E, while currently trading at 21X 212E P/E (Exhibit 13). Exhibit 1: A-share sector performance ytd: A reversal of the sector performance in 2H211 CSI3 Return by sector (212YTD) % Non-ferrous metal & Others Securities& Others Transportation Infratructure Capital Goods Coal Construction Materials & Others Chemical Construction&Other Industrial Services Media Textile&Apparel SHSZ3 Auto&parts Consumer Durables Steel Insurance IT&equipment/components Shipping&Other transportation Airlines Banks Property Oil,gas& petrochemical Retailing Hotel &tourism&others Health Care Utilities Food&beverage Telecom -5.5 1.1 12.1 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 8.9 8.8 8.3 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.4 6.9 6. 5.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.7 4.1 3.2 19.9-1 -5 5 1 15 2 25 Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5

Exhibit 2: Our GS tech team believes the fundamentals for IT hardware could be reaching a bottom Exhibit 3: The IT & equip/components sector s valuation has come down to a more sustainable level, in our view (K 8" equivalent wafers, ') 5,6 5,2 4,8 4,4 4, 3,6 3,2 2,8 2,4 2, 1,6 1,2 8 4 We expect shipment to rebound in March 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q3 2Q3 3Q3 4Q3 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 4Q4 1Q5 2Q5 3Q5 4Q5 1Q6 2Q6 3Q6 4Q6 1Q7 2Q7 3Q7 4Q7 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11E 1Q12E 2Q12E 3Q12E 4Q12E 8 IT&equipment/components 3.5 (X) Relative valuation to CSI3 Index (RHS) (X) 7 3. 6 5 2.5 15.7X 4 2. 3 2 1.5 1 1. 7-1 8-1 9-1 1-1 11-1 12-1 Source: Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Exhibit 4: GS GLI (momentum) index suggests the global macro momentum continues to improve Exhibit 5: BDI index is bouncing back from the recent historical low 12 11 (%) (%) 2. 1.5 4,5 4, Baltic Dry Index 1 1..5 3,5 3, 99. 2,5 98 -.5 2, 97 96 OECD leading indicator_euro OECD leading indicator_us OECD leading indicator_japan GLI (Momentum, RHS) -1. -1.5-2. 1,5 1, 5 95-2.5 24-1 26-1 28-1 21-1 212-1 21-1 21-7 211-1 211-7 212-1 Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6

Exhibit 6: WIND consensus earnings for IT & electronic components seems to have stabilized Exhibit 7: WIND consensus earnings for shipping sector have been cut substantially since mid-211 IT sector earnings forecast based on Wind consensus for 29 IT sector earnings forecast based on Wind consensus for 21 IT sector earnings forecast based on Wind consensus for 211 IT sector earnings forecast based on Wind consensus for 212 2 Rmb bn 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research Rmb bn 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Shipping sector earnings forecast based on Wind consensus for 29 Shipping sector earnings forecast based on Wind consensus for 21 Shipping sector earnings forecast based on Wind consensus for 211 Shipping sector earnings forecast based on Wind consensus for 212-5 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research Exhibit 8: Shipping sector is trading at 1.4X 212E P/B, the lowest level since late 28 8 7 (X) Shipping&Other transportation 12-m forward PB Relative valuation to CSI3 Index (RHS) (X) 2. 1.8 6 5 1.6 4 1.4 3 2 1 (1.4X) 1.2 1..8 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7

Exhibit 9: Value of shares becoming tradable should be less in SME and GEM than in the past several months Exhibit 1: Small-mid caps: Consumer-related sectors delivered higher and less volatile earnings growth 3 25 (RMB bn) Share value turning floatable ex SME & GEM A-share value turning floatable in SME &GEM 6 5 (%) SME_Consumer related_earning growth SME_ex. Consumer related_earning growth 4 2 3 15 2 1 1 5-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12-2 26 27 28 29 21 3Q211 211E* *Based on WIND consensus Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Exhibit 11: Non-consumer related sectors as shown by the unhighlighted sectors account for around 47% of the SME index s weighting Exhibit 12: Valuation of consumer-related sectors within the SME composite index has declined substantially Sector Sector weighting CSI3 Index SME Comp Index IT&equipment/components 2.3 16. Capital Goods 1.3 15.6 Food&beverage 7.1 9.2 Chemical 2.4 8.9 Health Care 4.3 8.2 Textile&Apparel.3 6.4 Construction&Other Industrial Services 3. 5.3 Consumer Durables 2.2 4.7 Retailing 2.1 4.2 Non-ferrous metal & Others 7. 4.1 Construction Materials & Others 1.5 3.1 Property 4.4 2.2 Auto&parts 2.4 2. Oil,gas& petrochemical 2.4 1.7 Banks 21.4 1.6 Coal 6.3 1.3 Steel 2.5 1.3 Hotel &tourism&others.8 1.1 Securities& Others 5.8.6 Household & Personal Products..5 Utilities 2.5.4 Media.4.4 Telecom 1..4 Transportation Infratructure.4.3 Airlines.8.3 Shipping&Other transportation 1.9.2 Insurance 4.7. Weightings of consumer related sectors 52.7 Grey indicates consumer-related sectors Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research 12-m forward PE of the consumer related sectors in SME composite Historical average 12-m forward PE Earnings growth of the consumer related sectors in SME composite 5 (RHS) 1 (%) (X) 45 8 4 6 35 4 3 2 25 2-2 15 1-4 5-6 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8

Exhibit 13: A list of our preferred small-mid cap growth stocks within the GS/GH A-share coverage universe Ticker Name Sector Rating Price (Rmb, 212-2-2) Market cap (US$mn) 212E EPS growth (%) P/E CY 212 (X) P/E CY 213 (X) 6741 CH Huayu Automotive Systems Industrials Buy 1.24 4,259 21.2 8.5 8. 61888 CH International Travel Service Consumer Discretionary Buy* 26.57 3,62 46.8 2.6 15.7 6498 CH Fiberhome Telecom Tech Information Technology Buy 28.68 1,929 32.4 2.9 16.5 6754 CH Shanghai Jinjiang International Consumer Discretionary Buy 17.33 1,662 25. 23.9 19.9 6637 CH BesTV New Media Consumer Discretionary Buy 15.4 1,584 48.6 27.7 19.9 679 CH Wuhan Humanwell Health Care Buy 18.1 1,43 37.4 23.2 18.2 2223 CH Jiangsu Yuyue Health Care Buy* 19.6 1,26 44.9 25.2 18.9 32 CH Beijing Ultrapower Information Technology Buy 2.62 1,187 34.5 17.3 13.8 654 CH Huangshan Tourism Consumer Discretionary Buy 15.67 1,15 24.1 17.1 13.5 Average 35. 2.5 16. Note: * Conviction Buy,stock price as of Feb 2, 212 For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Note: The ability to trade this basket will depend upon market conditions, including liquidity and borrow constraints at the time of trade. Source: Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Exhibit 14: Our list of small-mid cap stocks has underperformed the CSI3 by 8.4 pp since 4Q211 11 CSI3 Index (211-9-1=1) Performance of Small-mid cap stock list (equallyweighted) 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 Note: Results presented should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9

Disclosure Appendix Reg AC We, Hanfeng Wang, Ph.D, CFA, Helen Zhu, Timothy Moe, CFA, Ben Bei and Chenjie Liu, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry). Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Company-specific regulatory disclosures Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 3% 55% 15% 47% 42% 34% As of January 16, 212, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,593 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1

and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/comanaged public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman, Sachs & Co. and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711/NYSE Rules 472 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking business, in Australia. This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Instruction 483 is available at http://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 16 of CVM Instruction 483, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text. Canada: Goldman, Sachs & Co. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited; Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 19862165W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 23/126/EC is available at http://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrument and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau (Registration No. 69), and is a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) and Financial Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ). Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 1%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11

months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 6 797 897); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Banco Múltiplo S.A.; in Canada by Goldman, Sachs & Co. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman, Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 19862165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman Sachs AG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany. General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman, Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (http://www.sipc.org). Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. The analysts named in this report may have from time to time discussed with our clients, including Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders, or may discuss in this report, trading strategies that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts' fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. In producing research reports, members of the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to http://36.gs.com. Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 2 West Street, New York, NY 1282. 212 Goldman Sachs. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 12