By Philippe Guinaudeau June 2008
Content What happened in the world of NPD Toy Markets in the World Top 10 Countries Evaluating the future Summary 2
Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Spain, UK, U.S.A. 3
A complex year! 4
5
Worth $72billion, the World Toy market is constantly growing World Toy Market (billion $) Source: The NPD Group, Inc. Toy Markets in the World 6
Impact of the Exchange Rates All calculations have been made in US$. Exchange rates are as of December for the year. Because the models are based on information tracked on 12 countries, using 6 different currencies, exchange rates vs. USD impact the trends 7
Impact of the Exchange Rate: Summary In 2007 USD, the World Toy Market adds to: 2006 (2007 Exchange rates) 2007 World Toy Market $68.520 $71.963 bn +5.0% In 2006 USD, the World Toy market adds to: 2006 2007 (2006 Exchange rates) World Toy Market $67.030 $70.398 bn +5.0% In current USD, the World Toy market adds to: 2006 (2006 Exchange rates) 2007 (2007 Exchange rates) World Toy Market $67.030 $71.963 bn +7.4% 8
Growing areas are: 5 of the Top 10 gaining countries are in Europe, directly impacted by the exchange rate change in 2007 Among Top loosing countries are Japan (-$204.9 million), USA (-$126.2 million) 9
USA and Europe represent 10% of the kids population for 63% of the consumption in Toys 10
Top 10 countries on Toys remains extremely important, even though more countries contribute to the Toy Market 11
12
European countries filled the Top 10 Countries Rank Country Toy Market % Toy Market to Adults 2007 - billion $ $/Kid Country in World Toy Market Kids (0-14) Population % Kids in Country Population GDP/Capita 2007 - % 2007 - $ 2007 - % 2007 - million 2007 - % 2007 - $ 1 United States $22.2 22% $285 30.8% 60.9 20% $45 845 2 Japan $5.9 15% $287 8.3% 17.6 14% $35 312 3 United Kingdom $4.4 15% $355 6.1% 10.4 17% $45 575 4 France $3.7 11% $276 5.1% 11.8 19% $41 511 5 China $3.4 1% $12 4.7% 270.1 20% $2 461 6 Germany $3.1 16% $224 4.3% 11.5 14% $40 415 7 India $1.9 1% $5 2.6% 359.6 32% $978 8 Canada $1.8 21% $256 2.5% 5.5 17% $43 485 9 Brazil $1.8 3% $35 2.5% 48.2 25% $6 938 10 Spain $1.6 14% $230 2.2% 5.8 14% $32 067 13
14
Kids 0-4 years old is the demographic group expected to grow in the next 4 years 15
As a result, the Toy Market has a bright future World Toy Market (billion $) Source: The NPD Group, Inc. Toy Markets in the World 16
Although USA are down vs. 2007, the NPD markets recorded a good start for the year Poland Belgium* Spain Italy Australia Austria France Portugal Germany UK Switzerland USA -6,0% -2,0% Toy Markets in the NPD World Jan-April'08 vs. Jan-April'07 1,2% 0,6% 0,2% 1,9% 4,8% 7,8% 7,7% 9,4% % Chg in value 20,4% 28,8% *: Jan-March 08 vs. Jan-March 07 Source: NPD PoS Panels 17
Unless another exchange rate crisis, Asia will reach Europe s level in 2008 18
19
Key Facts Worth $72billion, the World Toy market is constantly growing, especially in: Latin/South America & Caribbean, especially Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina and Mexico Europe, through favourable exchange rates (+6.3% at constant exchange rates) as well as in the Russian Federation Asia, through China, India and to a lower extent in Indonesia. Top 10 countries remains extremely important, even though more countries contribute to the Toy Market! In addition: 5 of the Top 10 gaining countries are in Europe, directly impacted by the exchange rate change in 2007 BRIC countries are dynamic Among Top loosing countries are Japan (-$204.9 million), USA (-$126.2 million) Kids 0-4 years old is the demographic group expected to grow in the next 4 years. As a result, and combined with the development of the local economies, the Toy Market is expected to increase by 5.3% in 2008. Asia and Africa are the continent expected to reinforce their contribution to the World Toy Market. It is planned that, Asia should reach Europe s level in 2008 20
4 Key Challenges in the World of NPD 1. Stop the erosion of the consumption for girl recipients (lack of major licenses combined with major declines in core brands like Barbie, Dora, Bratz is deteriorating girls business). 2. Contain the pressure from Video-Games and other electronic products by winning the war in public opinion area. 3. Keep strong visibility in store, as retailer shelf space is getting harder to come by. 4. The ultimate challenge is to sell toys at full price at Christmas while containing the cost of goods. 21
A complete report for each major region and sub-region of the world including the top 50 countries is available at the cost of $US 5,000. You will receive full access to the data plus client service support from the NPD Group. Please contact Philippe Guinaudeau for more information. : +61 4 320 90 295 : philippe_guinaudeau@npd.com