1 = Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index = = 115 15 95 Durable and Semi-durable Indices Nielsen s FMCG Index sa, 3mma Fuel Index, sa Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS) Semi-durable Index sa,3mma Durable Index sa, 3mma = 13 7 Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector %YoY Private Consumption Indicators H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec P %MoM sa Non-durable index 1.4 1.3 1.4.1 2.9 3.1 3.. Semi-durable index 2.8 2.5 3.1 2.6 3.6 1.6 1.6.2 Durable index 8.4 8.4 8.5 1.6 6.8 2.6 5.9 2.2 Service index 5.2 7. 3.5 4.9 2.2-1. 2.5 E.1 E (less) Net tourist -.7 7.1-7.8-1.1-5.5-6..7 2. spending PCI 4.7 4.1 5.2 6. 4.5 2.6 3.3 -.1 Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated 1 15 13 Service Index sa, 3mma Non-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS) = 1 1
2 P = Preliminary Data %YoY 4 3 2 1-1 -2 (%YoY) Apr Farm Income Contribution to Growth: Farm Income Oct H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Nominal farm income P.2 1..4 -.4 1.2-5. 7.5 4.8 Agricultural production P 6.2 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.4-3.2 9.3 5.2 Agricultural price -5.7-8.9-2.1-3. -1.2-1.8-1.6 -.4 Apr ข าวเปล อก อ อย ม นสาปะหล ง ยางพารา ผลไม ปาล มนาม น ปศ ส ตว ก ง อ นๆ รวมส นค าเกษตร Sources: UTCC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT Oct 4.8 Index = 1 Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = ) 7 5 4 Consumer Confidence Index Total Current Next 6 months Real Income Transfer of salary through FI sa, 3mma (Baht/person)* Transfer of salary through FI sa Total Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma Farm Income sa, 3mma Farm Income sa Note : * 1) Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained from the National ITMX and BOT s payment systems data as the value of total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer. 2) Oct figures were estimated by the BOT Average 5 years = 76.2
-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18-19 3 Index sa ( = ) Bn baht 2 15 5-5 Investment in Machinery and Equipment Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Registered for Investment Sources of Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Debt Equity 3MMA Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value. Index sa ( =) 1, m 2 9mma 7, Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 7 % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) Investment in Construction Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec P %MoM sa -3.3.7-7.3-4.3-1.3-14.3-14. E 1.6 E Construction Materials Index 4.5 1.4 7.7 7.9 7.6 1. 4.1 2.5 Real Imports of Capital Goods 3.7 5.2 2.3. 4.5-1. 4. 4.5 Real Domestic Machinery Sales 5.9 6.5 5.4 8.4 2.5-1.7 2.6 E -2.8 E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators 5.7 4.9 6.6 6.3 6.9 11.8 21.6 7.2 PII 3.5 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 -.5 2.1 5.7
Sources: Comptroller General s Department, Fiscal Policy Office 4 Central Government Current Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 1 1 5 4 3 2 1 24.6% avg. FY-18 FY FY Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Central Government Capital Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 19.6% avg. FY-18 FY FY Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht FY FY Fiscal Position (Cash basis) FY FY P Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Revenue 2,354 2,513 758 671 615 28 21 (%YoY) (-2.4) (6.8) (8.7) (8.9) (12.7) (1.9) (8.1) Expenditure 1/ 2,795 2,882 731 6 924 269 294 (%YoY) (2.2) (3.1) (14.) (2.3) (-2.2) (-6.8) (31.1) Budgetary B/L -441-368 28 65-31 -62-84 Non-Budgetary B/L 35-28 53-7 -27-8 -28 Cash B/L (CG) -46-396 81-5 -337-7 -112 Net Financing 489 56 83 212 84 22 14 Treasury B/L 524 633 427 633 3 3 281 Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments
5 H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec P No. of tourists ( ) 38,277 19,482 18,796 9, 9,735 3,846 3,719 %YoY 7.5 12.2 3.1 1.9 4.3 7.7 4.9 %QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - -3.1 3. 5.3-2.5 Index sa ( = ) 35 3 Tourists Classified by Nationality Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 11%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 3%) Europe ex. Russia (share 14%) Russia (share 4%) 25 2 15 5 Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in
6 Dec = 19.5 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 19.1 Bn USD Export Value Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data = 19.4 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 19.1 Bn USD Share P P %YoY P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec (%MoM) Agriculture 7.2.1 3. -2.8 1.3-6.5-12.5-4.2 2.7 Fishery.8-6.5-1.4-1.9-15.4-6.2-4.6-9.2-6. Manufacturing 88.9 8.4 12.8 4.4 6.7 2.1 -.9-4.6 -.8 Agro-manufacturing 12.3 6.3 8.5 4.2 5.8 2.7-1.6-3.6 -.8 Electronics 14.8 5. 12.4-1.5 3.6-6.2-12. -7.1 2.5 Electrical Appliances 5.3 1.7 6.6-3.5-3.4-3.6-5.6-5.8.1 Automotive 15.2 8. 15.3 1.5 6.2-2.9 2. -3.4-1.2 Machinery & Equipment 8.7 6.9 1.3 3.7 4.1 3.2 -.7-2.5 -.8 Petroleum Related 13.1 22. 26.5 18. 19.7 16.4 7.4-8.3-5.7 Total (BOP Basis). 7.7 13.5 2.4 2.6 2.3-1.6-4.7.3 Ex. Gold - 8.5 14. 3.4 5.4 1.4-2. -3.9.8 Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related - 6.7 12.4 1.4 3.5 -.6-3.3-3.3 1.8 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Ex.gold 13 7 Thai Export to Major Destinations Index sa, 3mma ( =) -19 * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods Asian Export Performance Index sa, 3mma ( =) SG Japan* China US EU ASEAN5 ME - 19 ID ex.oil & Gas TH ex.gold MY TW CN KR
7 (%YoY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Share R Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at ) R = Revision P = Preliminary data Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec P Food & Beverages 19.9 4.8 5.6 3.9 1.1 6.6 7. 1.5 Automotives 13.9 1.2 11.7 8.7 6.6 1.8 7.6 8.9 - Passenger Cars 4.8 1.5 1.7 1.4 9.6 11.2 12.7 14.9 - Commercial Vehicles 7.2 1.6 12. 9.1 5.2 13. 6.7 6.5 - Engine 1.3 1. 15.6 4.4 3.3 5.5 1.4 -.9 Petroleum 9.6 5.1 7.8 2.4 1.9 2.8 1.8 1.6 Chemicals 9.2 4.5 6.4 2.7 3.5 1.8.7 -.9 Rubbers & Plastics 8.9-1.. -2. 1.5-5.5-8.3-3. Cement & Construction 5.5 4.6 3.6 5.6 7.6 3.5 -.9.5 IC & Semiconductors 5.5 2.6.8 4.4 7.7 1.2 6. -4. Electrical Appliances 3.8 1.3 -.6 3.2 3.5 2.9 3.3 7.6 Textiles & Apparels 3.5 2.1 -.1 4.3 5. 3.6 6.4-1.1 Hard Disk Drive 3.4 4.1 13.2-5.1 2.1-12.3-23. -11.1 Others 16.7 -.4 1. -1.9-3.4 -.4-1.5-5.4 MPI. 3.7 4.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 1.2.2 Capacity Utilization (Non-SA) - 68.8 7. 67.6 66.8 68.4 67.5 7.5 15 1 5-5 -1 %YoY MPI Classified by Export Share Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production Index sa ( = ) Apr Oct * The latest month was estimated by the BOT Export <3 3<Export< Export > Apr Oct Industrial Electricity Consumption* Quantity of Imported Raw Materials Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
8 Dec = 17.1 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 16.7 Bn USD %YoY Share Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec (%MoM) Consumer 1.3 12.2 16.6 8.2 7.1 9.2 2.2 3.8 2.5 Raw material & Intermediate 56.2 18.8 19.5 18.1 21.3 14.9 2.6 6.5 4.7 o/w Fuel 16.3 4.1 36.9 43. 53.1 34.6 12.5 5.1-6.8 o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Import Value = 19.3 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 18.7 Bn USD 39.9 11.8 14.1 9.6 11.6 7.6-1.4 7. 9.5 Capital 22.8 1. 5.6-3.2-5.9 -.6-6.3-3.3 2.8 Others 1.7 9. 15.1 4.4 35.3-21.5-51.2 118.4 11.9 Total (BOP Basis). 14.3 16.6 12.1 17. 7.5-6.7 4.2 3.8 Ex. Gold - 14.9 17.1 13. 14.2 11.9 2.5 4.5 2.6 Ex. Gold&Fuel - 1.4 13.6 7.4 7.6 7.3.4 4.4 4.6 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. P = Preliminary data Index sa, 3mma ( =) Import Value Index Total imports Raw materials ex. fuel* Capital goods Consumer goods Fuel 4 * Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in others in the accompanying table. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Value Quantity Price
9 Unemployment rate (sa) Employed persons (%YoY) %YoY 3 2 1-1 % Labor Market Indicators Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT Headline inflation contribution H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec 1.1 1.2.9-2 Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT 1. (1.).9 (1.).9 (1.1) Raw food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core (72.56%).27% 1. (1.) 1.1.4 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.1 Underemployment rate.8.8.7.8.6.6 1.2 Thousand persons sa, 3mma 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, %YoY 3 2 1 Rent (19.62%) Food & Beverage (28.17%) Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%) Core inflation contribution Employment Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa) Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS) Thousand persons sa, 3mma 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1,.69%
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 1 Balance of Payments P E Billion USD P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec E Trade Balance 23.6 15.8 7.8 3.4 4.4 2.5.1 Exports (f.o.b.) 253.4 127.5 125.9 63.4 62.5 19.5 19.4 %YoY 7.7 13.5 2.4 2.6 2.3-1.6-4.7 Imports (f.o.b.) 229.8 111.7 118.1. 58.1 17.1 19.3 %YoY 14.3 16.6 12.1 17. 7.5-6.7 4.2 Net Services, Income & Transfers 14.1 9.2 4.9.8 4.1 2.5 2.2 Current Account 37.7 25. 12.7 4.2 8.5 5. 2.3 Capital and Financial Account -22.2-13.8-8.5-4.2-4.3-2..7 Overall Balance 7.3 7.6 -.4.3 -.7 -.2 2.3
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 11 Net Financial Flows Millions of USD P P E H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec E 1. Assets -26,2-11,446-15,456-9,66-6,3-2,998 42 TDI -18,133-1,521-7,611-5,563-2,49-815 -29 - Equity -7,722-3,1-4,532-3,331-1,21-311 -423 Thai Portfolio investment -2,24-43 -1,773-1,358-415 445-974 - Equity security investment -4,696-4,391-34 -282-23 -148-183 - Debt security investment 2,492 3,961-1,469-1,77-392 593-791 Loans -1,217-1,47-17 566-736 -664 742 Other Investments -5,348 553-5,1-2,712-3,1-1,964 663 - Trade credits -2,727-2,791 64-659 723-1 679 2. Liabilities 5,282-1,697 6,979 4,873 2,16 991 3 FDI 12,462 6,986 5,476 3,176 2,3 727 898 - Equity 6,269 2,826 3,443 1,819 1,624 619 421 Foreign Portfolio investment -3,228-6,545 3,318 2,583 735-452 -137 - Equity security investment -7, -4,632-2,468-262 -2,26-124 196 - Debt security investment 3,873-1,913 5,786 2,845 2,94-328 -333 Loans 1,962-783 2,745 439 2,36 2,314-1,562 Other Investments -5,915-1,355-4,5-1,326-3,234-1,598 1,12 - Trade credits -1,911 339-2,25-675 -1,575-1,323 66 Total Financial Flows (1+2) -21,62-13,143-8,477-4,194-4,284-2,7 73
Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg 3-Dec-16 24--17 15-Feb-17 8-Mar-17 29-Mar-17 24-Apr-17 17-May-17 7-Jun-17 28-Jun-17 2--17 11-Aug-17 4-Sep-17 25-Sep-17 17-Oct-17 9-Nov-17 3-Nov-17 25-Dec-17 17--18 7-Feb-18 28-Feb-18 22-Mar-18 17-Apr-18 9-May-18 31-May-18 21-Jun-18 12--18 6-Aug-18 28-Aug-18 18-Sep-18 9-Oct-18 1-Nov-18 22-Nov-18 17-Dec-18 9--19 3--19 21-Feb-19 21 211 212 213 Q18 Q2 Q3 Q4-19 12 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% Exchange Rate Movement end of 19 compared to end of Dec 18 21 Feb 19 compared to end of 18 (Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD) INR TWD VND KRW EUR PHP MYR SGD JPY CNY GBP IDR THB Index ( = ) 13 NEER REER USDTHB THB Appreciation % p.a. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Feb-19 118.6-18 17.8 Feb-19 15.3 Feb (Average data until 21 Feb ) Times 6 5 4 3 2 1 Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD) Reserves/Short-term Debt Latest data 21 Feb E 3.4