Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 8, 219
U.S. Gross Domestic Product 6. Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) $2, 5. 4. 3. $19, $18, $17, $16, % 2. $15, 1.. -1. $14, $13, $12, $11, -2. 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $1, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 212 Dollars ) 217 +2.2% 218 +2.9%
(s) 4, Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year 2, Mar = +2.5M -2, -4, -6, -8, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 7 US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month 5 3 1 Mar = +196k -1-3 -5-7 -9 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
US Payroll Jobs 4 35 3 25 2 Month-to-Month Change (s) Total (Millions) 155 15 145 14 218-219 2.5M Mar +196K 15 1 5 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 135 13 125 Since 21 +21M
Ranked by Size in 218 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wholesale Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector -36-3 4 Mar 218 Mar 219 83 11 92 16 (s) 179 29-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 246 Total = 2,537, 435 545 534
Ranked by Size in 218 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wholesale Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector -12-6 -2-2 Feb 219 Mar 219 7 11 1 (s) 14 16 16 33 37 Total = +196k 7-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Unemployment Rate % 1. 8. Mar 3.8 6. 4. 2.. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Unemployment 15. U-6 UR LFPR 1. 5.. 214 215 216 217 218 219 64 62 Mar 7.3% Mar 3.8% Mar 63% Mar18 to Mar19 U-6 -.6% UR -.2% 6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average Mar 3: 22K Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 5 Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average 45 4 35 Mar 3: 22K 3 25 2 Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Weekly Earnings U.S., Total Private, Across all Industries Average Weekly Earnings 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Real Average Weekly Earnings (1982-1984 dollars) Mar 18 Mar 19 Avg Hourly Wages +3.2% Mar 18 Mar19 Avg Weekly Earnings +3.2% Feb 18 Feb 19 Real Avg Weekly Earnings +1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Labor Productivity Nonfarm business, seasonally adjusted 7 6 5 4 QOTYC Index 12 1 8 3 6 2 1 4 2-1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Base year (1) = 212
Consumer Confidence 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Current Situation March 219 Cur. = 16.6 Exp. = 99.8 (1985 = 1) Expectations
Annual Consumer Prices 21-218 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. -1. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Interest Rates 21-218 % 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 3-Yr 1-Yr Treas Fed Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
1-yr./1-yr. yield spread Percentage points 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Source: FRB Dallas Only false signal '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '8 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '1 '4 '7
1-yr./1-yr. yield spread 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 -.5 Source: U.S. Treasury, Yield Curve for Treasury Nominal Coupon Issues (TNC yield curve), which is derived from Treasury nominal notes and bonds
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales Feb 18 - Feb 19-1.8% Feb 18 - Feb 19.6% 4k (s) 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: U.S. Census (New)(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), National Association of Realtors (Existing)
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays 6 5 4 3 2 3.1 3.8 3.5 3 2.2 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.5 1-1 -.3-2 -1.6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
4 2 1.9 % 2.6 U.S. GDP 27 218 (Annual % Change) 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 % -.1-2 -2.5-4 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
The Washington Economy
Population Change Elements of Population Change Washington MSA 12, +2.% +1.7% +1.5% +1.1% +1.% +1.% +1.1% 1, 8, 6, 23,864 6,843 3,143 37,183 39,715 39,358 41,48 45,41 45,66 44,76 4, 2, 49,16 49,169 47,79 48,651 47,832 44,882 42,616-2, -4, Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase -23,29-31,483-31,492-21,543 21-211 211-212 212-213 213-214 214-215 215-216 216-217 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V217
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 (s) 15 Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA 1 5-5 -1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job Change - Washington MSA s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s 11 3,4 9 7 5 3 1-1 3,3 3,2 3,1 3, 2,9 Feb 18- Feb 19 +2.7 K -3 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2,8 February-19 Total: 3,29 K
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 (s) 4 Annual Job Change MOTYC District of Columbia 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job Change District of Columbia s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s 25 82 2 15 1 5 8 78 76 74 72 7 Feb 18- Feb 19 +2.7 K -5 68 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 February-19 Total: 791 K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 (s) 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban Maryland Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job Change Suburban MD s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s 3 1,4 25 2 15 1 5 1,2 1, 98 96 94 92 9 Feb 18- Feb 19-3,3-5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 88 February-19 Total: 1, K
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia (s) 8 6 4 2-2 -4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job Change Northern VA s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s 5 1,55 4 3 2 1-1 1,5 1,45 1,4 1,35 1,3 Feb 18- Feb 19 +18.5K -2 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1,25 February - 19 Total: 1,484 K
Employment Composition by Sector February 219 Washington MSA Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Federal Government State & Local Government Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activites Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 11.% 1.5% 1.1% 8.% 6.3% 4.7% 4.7% 13.5% 23.3% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25%
(Ranked by Size in 218) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector February 218 February 219 Washington MSA -9. -4.8 -.9 -.2-1.1 -.5.5.8 2.8 2.4 3.3 (s) Total = 2,7 13.5 13.9-15 -1-5 5 1 15 2 25 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 218) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector January 219 February 219 Washington MSA (s) Total = 13,7-5.5-1.8-1.6 -.7 -.3..5.1.6 2.8 2.4 4.1 13.1-1 -5 5 1 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 25 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA 78 2 15 76 74 1 5-5 -1-15 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 72 7 68 66 64 Feb 18- Feb 19 +13.5K MOTYC Total Jobs
(s) 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Month Over the Year Change Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs. Admin. & Waste Mgt. -15 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Federal Government Washington MSA -2 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 39 385 38 375 37 365 36 355 35 345 Feb 18- Feb 19-9 MOTYC Total Jobs February-19 Total: 363K
$ Billions 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA 198-218 (Fiscal Years) 82.4 TOTAL = $1,471.1 Billion 79.9 76.3 82.6 77.6 71.2 75. 69.1 71.1 Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
(Ranked by Size in 218) Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Leisure & Hosp. Other Services State & Local Govt Financial Retail Trade Information Construction Transp. & Util. Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector February 218 February 219 District of Columbia -1.9 -.9 -.4 -.5 -.3.1.1...9 (s) Total 2,7 1.2 1.4 3. -3-2 -1 1 2 3 4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 218) Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Leisure & Hosp. Other Services State & Local Govt Financial Retail Trade Information Construction Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector January 219 February 219 District of Columbia -.4 -.3......2.3.4.6 (s) Total 4,2 1.1 2.3-1. -.5..5 1. 1.5 2. 2.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 218) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Construction Other Services Financial Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Transp. & Util. Information -2.7 Job Change by Sector February 21 February 219 Suburban Maryland -2. -1.3-1.1-1. -.9 (s) Total: -3,3..1.5.4 1.2 1.4 2.1-3 -2-1 1 2 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 218) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Construction Other Services Financial Manufacturing Wholesale_Trade Transp. & Util. Information -2.1 Job Change by Sector January 219 February 219 Suburban Maryland -.8 -.1 -.1 -.3.2.1...1.6 2.3 (s) Total: 7,4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7.5
(Ranked by Size in 218) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector February 218 February 219 Northern Virginia -4.2-1.8 -.8 -.9 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Total 18,5 8.4.9 1.2.5.7 1.1-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 2. 4.3 7.1
(Ranked by Size in 218) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector January 219 February 219 Northern Virginia -2.6 -.3 -.7 -.3 -.6 -.6.....1 (s) Total: 7 2.7 3. -4-2 2 4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area 12 1 8 6 4 6. DC 4. U.S. 4.1 SMD 3.7 MSA 2.8 NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
(s) 12 1 8 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb. 218 Feb. 219 Washington +2,7 6 4 2-2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb. 218 Feb. 219 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% -1.% Washington +.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6. % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 27 217 (Annual % Change) % 4. 2.. U.S. -2. Washington -4. 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Chained Dollars
% % Economic Outlook (GRP), 27-22 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 216
7 6 5 4 3 2 Employment Change in the Washington MSA (Thousands of Jobs) Annual Totals 27.6 17.2 55.7 59.2 5.9 4.6 34.6 31.8 1 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 218) Average Annual Change 199-216 = 39,8
8 7 Employment Change in the Washington MSA (Thousands of Jobs) Dec-Dec 74.1 6 5 4 3 32.7 53.2 37.8 4.6 34.6 31.8 2 1 6.9 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 218)
Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) Annual Totals 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 D.C. 13.4 5.2 15.9 13.7 7.5 1.6 8.9 8.2 Sub. MD 7.5 9.7 1.6 13.4 12.8 14.1 12. 11. No. VA 9.2.8 29.8 28.9 22.6 15.9 13.7 12.6 REGION 27.6 17.2 55.7 59.2 5.9 4.6 34.6 31.8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 218) NOTE: The sub-state totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change 199-217 = 38,9
Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) (Dec Dec) 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 D.C. 11.8 7. 2.5 5.4 7.7 1.6 8.9 8.2 Sub. MD 4.1 16.5 11.2 17.2-3.9 14.1 12. 11. No. VA -5.7 8.3 44.9 19.8 25.6 15.9 13.7 12.6 REGION 6.9 32.7 74.1 53.2 37.8 4.6 34.6 31.8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 218) NOTE: The sub-state totals do not include Jefferson, WV.
Long commutes diminish quality of life Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 6 or more minutes New York SF-Oakland DC Atlanta Boston Chicago Los Angeles Seattle Philadelphia Houston Miami Dallas United States Phoenix Detroit Minneapolis 5.7% 7.3% 7.1% 14.5% 14.2% 14.1% 13.6% 12.3% 11.8% 11.1% 1.6% 9.4% 9.3% 17.9% 17.5% 22.5% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Source: US Census Bureau, 217 American Community Survey, Table S82
Annual change in Metrorail Average Weekday Passenger Boardings Metrorail ridership is in decline 15.% 1.% 5.% DC Maryland All Metro Alexandria Arlington Fairfax.% -5.% -1.% -15.% 21-11 211-12 212-13 213-14 214-15 215-16* Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)
56
The contributions of foreign-born, non-citizen workers to the Washington region s workforce 59
Source: 216 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files 6
Most Foreign Born, Non-Citizens originate from Latin America El Salvador 23.5% India Guatemala Mexico Honduras 6.2% 6.1% 5.8% 5.6% Ethiopia China Bolivia Philippines Canada Bangladesh 3.1% 3.% 2.9% 2.7% 1.%.7% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Proportion of Total Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Workers Source: US Census Bureau ACS 216, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 61
Source: 216 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files 62
Majority of foreign-born, non-citizen workers have been here 1 years or more 6% 5% Year of Entry, Non Citizen Foreign Born Workers MWCOG Region 48.3% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 22.2% 17.2% 8.4%.2%.5% 1.5% 1.8% before 196 196-1969 197-1979 198-1989 199-1999 2-29 21-214 215 or later Source: US Census Bureau ACS 216, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 63
Percentage of Workers Foreign-born, non-citizen workers are about as likely to have a post-secondary degree as all workers nationwide 35% 3% 29.4% Non-Citizen, Foreign-Born Workers Greater Washington Region Workforce 25% 27.4% 25.8% 2% 2.9% 22.7% 15% 16.% 16.2% 16.% 17.5% 1% 5% 8.2% % Less than High School High school diploma/ged Source: US Census Bureau ACS 216, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Associates degree or Some College Bachelors Degree Graduate or Professional Degree 64
Several occupational groups rely heavily on foreign-born, non-citizen workers Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Workers % of Total Occupation Workforce Occupation Group Construction & extraction 65,94 52.4% Cleaning & maintenence 52,75 48.6% Farming, fishing, & forestry 1,15 38.% Food preparation & serving 43,77 32.6% Production 14,22 28.% Healthcare support 1,3 21.6% Personal care & service 21,16 21.3% Transportation & material moving 22,87 2.7% Life, physical, & social science 1,89 18.1% Installation, maintenance, & repair 9,19 16.6% Sales 33,99 14.1% Computer & mathematical 21,52 1.1% Healthcare practitioners 11,42 8.7% Financial specialists 8,7 8.6% Office & administrative support 27,98 8.6% Source: 216 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files 65
Housing Market Trends
3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 21 219, MSA % Chg Inv Inventory 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Feb -4.1% Source: Bright MLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. - (2.) (4.) (6.) Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2 219, MSA Feb -4.1% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1999 2 21 22 23 Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through February 219 24 25 26 27 28 12-Month Moving Average 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 4,452 Feb 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2, 1,5 1, 5-5 -1, -1,5-2, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Month-Over-Year Change -399 Feb 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3, Washington MSA Building Permits 212-219, 3-Month Moving Avg. 2,5 2, Feb 2,292 1,5 1, 5 Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3, 2,5 2, (s) Inventory and Permits Washington MSA Permits Inventory 4 35 3 25 1,5 2 1, 5 15 1 5 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
8% 6% MOTY Change in Existing Sales and Permits Washington MSA (12 month Moving Average) (s) Permits Existing Home Sales 4% 2% % -2% -4% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $417 K Feb 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Median House Sales Price (s) 7 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 7 Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Arlington 6 5 4 $565K Feb 219 $416 K Feb 219 3 2 1 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Median House Sales Price ($s) 7 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Loudoun County) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Number of Sales ($s) 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Loudoun County) Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 Median Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA -4 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
% 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 3 2 6 6 9 3 4 4 7 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA 8 1 14 6 11 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 4 5 9 8 3 5 2 2 1 2-1 5 1 5 4 2 1-1 1 3 4-2 -3 1-1 2 2 1-1 3 6 7 6 4 5 3 4 2 2 4 6 5 2 3 4 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 5 4-6 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb. = $467K
% 2 15 1 5-5 1 8 8 14-3 -4 4 13 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) District of Columbia 7 14 13 1 8 4 6 2 15 11 5 17 4 5-5 1 11-1 12 11 6 4-1 -6 12 1 7 5 5 1 1-1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219-2 3 1 9 8 6 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis -1-3 -2 5 1 1 4-2 11 2-1 -3 4 11 14 9-1 5 6 9-7 -5 3 2 11-6-6-2 17-1 -4 8 3 7 8-4 1 4 Feb. = $692K
Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Suburban Maryland 2 15 1 % 5-5 -4-2 -1 11 1 5 4 11 9 6 14 4 1111 8 11 12 12 1 6 9 1 5 12 13 5 4 1-2 2 4 4-3 2 1-3 1 1-1-1 3-1 3-4 5-1 5-2 2 4 2-4 7 1 3 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 2 2 2 1-2 7 1 7 5 5 4 4 3 2-1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb. = $381K
Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia % 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 4 2 9 5 7 3 5 5 3 6 1 13 1 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 8 1 2 6 4 5 1 3 1 2 2 4-1 2 4 5 8 4 4 2-1 2 3 2-4 -2 2-1 1 1-1 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 7 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2-6 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb. = $485K
Total Listings Per Sale Sep Each Year 25 2 15 PW PG 1 5 - ARL MONT FFX LDN DC Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total Active Listings Per Sale February Each Year Metro Area 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Detached (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) 2 $8 15 1 5 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1-5 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 February 219 = $644,988, +4.3% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Attached (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) 3 $6 25 2 15 1 5 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1-5 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis February 219 = $472,56, +5.1%
Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Condos (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) 25 $4 2 15 1 5-5 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5-1 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis February 219 = $327,779,.7%
Average Home Sales Price DC- Single Family Detached (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) 6 $1,4 5 $1,2 4 3 $1, 2 $8 1 $6 $4-1 -2 $2-3 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis February 219 = $956,117, -19.3%
Average Home Sales Price DC- Single Family Attached (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) 4 $1, 3 $9 $8 2 $7 1 $6 $5 $4-1 $3 $2-2 $1-3 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis February 219 = $78,811, +16.2%
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) 3 $7 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 Average Home Sales Price DC- Condos 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis February 219 = $512,695, -2.9% $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $
Where are we? We are growing: Some diversification Some catch-up Recent job growth across all wage levels Growth will continue in 217, but at a moderating pace Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World Concentration of Leaders Access to capital High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Education Educated Work Force Advanced Occupational Specializations Challenges Drain the swamp/sequester Further market shifts needed Cost of living/doing business Mobility Access to capital Regional branding / cooperation Globally competitive? Understanding changing nature of jobs Productivity
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