Quarterly Report FINDEP Market Performer 12M FWD Price Target P$3.5 Price 3.85 12M Price Range 2.70 / 5.18 Shares Outstanding (Mill) 715.9 Market Cap (Mill) 2756.2 Float 36.6% Total Debt (Mill) 6,562 Stockholder Equity 4,037 Total Loan Portfolio 7,014 2015 12M 2016e 2017e Revenues 4,849 4,748 4,628 4,824 Financial Margin 4,232 4,125 3,995 4,118 Net Profit 209 203 198 267 NPL 6.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% EPS 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.37 P/E 13.2 13.5 14.0 10.3 P/BV 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 ROAE 5.8% 5.3% 5.0% 6.2% Lilian Ochoa lochoa@gbm.com.mx +52(81) 8152 4000 ext. 4014 Jorge Benítez jjbenitez@gbm.com.mx +52(81) 8152 4000 ext. 4015 Ongoing contraction in profitability Despite the success of FINDEP s strategy focused on prioritizing asset quality over growth, the company has failed in value creation. The company has been reducing its provisioning demands due to a continuous asset quality improvement; however, it has not been able to create enough operating income from its performing loans to start expanding its profitability levels. Moreover, although FINDEP s strategy aims to turn it into a more conservative company, we believe operating risks are increasing, as funding costs will tend to rise, and we are still concerned about whether the company could start to expand its loan portfolio without compromising asset quality. As a result, we are introducing our 12M FWD price target of P$3.5 with a Market Performer recommendation. Concerns increased behind higher funding cost. FINDEP s topline dynamics remain restricted by the company s strategy, driving interest income to a 4.9% YOY drop its fourth consecutive quarter with yearly contractions as the total loan portfolio rose barely 0.6% YOY, combined with a less profitable asset mix, which turned into lower active rates. Additionally, higher funding costs and interest-bearing liabilities have started to add pressure on the company. Thus, net interest income decreased 6.1% YOY to P$982.3 million. FINDEP s conservative stance ended up benefiting asset quality. The consolidated cost of credit risk (-570 bps to 16.3%) benefited from the 21.6% YOY drop in past due loans, due to the weak credit origination with a greater asset quality. Indeed, FINDEP managed to reduce the adjusted NPL ratio by 120 bps sequentially to 10.0% considering write-offs. Lower reserve requirements and controlled expenses led bottom line to a 3.8% YOY expansion. The latter more than offset the weaker credit origination and higher funding cost, coupled with less non-interest income (-13.2% YOY). However, the company failed to improve profitability, posting a 200bp YOY contraction in ROAE to 5.0%. P/BV 12M PRICE PERFORMANCE VS. IPC P/E FWD 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 07/15 09/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 03/16 05/16 07/16 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0% -40.0% 07/15 09/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 03/16 05/16 07/16 16.0x 15.0x 14.0x 13.0x 12.0x 11.0x 10.0x 9.0x 07/15 08/15 09/15 10/15 11/15 12/15 01/16 02/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 FINDEP IPC GBM Grupo Bursatil Mexicano, S.A. de C.V., Casa de Bolsa ( GBM ), and its affiliates, may carryout and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should not consider this report as a single factor in making their investment decisions. These materials do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any trading strategy.
Estimates vs. Official Results GBM's Official estimates * results ** Interest Income -1.3% -4.8% Interest Expenses 0.1% 3.8% Financial Margin -1.5% -6.1% Provisions for loan losses -18.4% -23.3% Non-interest income -20.4% -13.2% Non-interest expenses 0.0% -1.5% NetIncome 15.4% 3.8% 12M EPS 0.29 0.28 ROAE 5.5% 5.3% NPL ratio 6.1% 5.7% Portfolio 0.7% 0.5% Coverage ratio 100.0% 100.0% Source: * GBM; **BMV; Estimates variation -Figures in P$ Million 2016 2017 2018 Previous New Previous New Previous New MXN YOY% MXN YOY% MXN YOY% MXN YOY% MXN YOY% MXN YOY% Interest Income 4,929 1.7% 4,628-4.6% 5,163 4.8% 4,824 4.2% 5,415 4.9% 5,085 5.4% Net Interest Income 4,290 1.4% 3,995-5.6% 4,494 4.8% 4,118 3.1% 4,728 5.2% 4,313 4.7% Provisions for loan losses 1,305-9.9% 1,196-17.5% 1,399 7.2% 1,208 1.0% 1,524 9.0% 1,243 2.9% Non-interest income 666-17.1% 727-9.5% 735 10.4% 762 4.8% 797 8.3% 825 8.2% Non-interest expenses 3,242-1.9% 3,235-2.1% 3,330 2.7% 3,280 1.4% 3,406 2.3% 3,407 3.9% Net Income 279 33.5% 198-5.5% 340 22.0% 267 35.2% 404 18.6% 333 24.6% Weaker credit origination and higher funding cost led us to adjust our estimates. We are adjusting our financial margin expectations for 2016 and onwards, mainly affected by the weaker than expected credit origination during the quarter with a less profitable mix, combined with the higher funding cost resulting from Banxico s recent monetary policy. We should mention that NII adjustment should be partially offset by lower provisions for loan losses, as the company s focus on asset quality is easing provisioning requirements. Moving on, we are expecting a deterioration in efficiency levels, as the controlled operating expenses resulting from the weaker operating activity should be more than compensated by the financial margin explained above and lower net fees and commissions. We believe FINDEP could be running against the clock. FINDEP has been enforcing its new strategy focused on prioritizing asset quality over growth. However, even though the company has been reducing its provisioning demands, it has not managed to create enough operating income from its performing loans to start expanding its profitability once again. Also, we believe FINDEP has not yet absorbed the full effect of higher funding sources, which will start to hamper net margin dynamics, dragging down net income. Hence, although FINDEP s strategy aims to turn it into a more conservative company, we believe operating risks are increasing, as funding costs will tend to rise, and we are still concerned about whether the company could start to expand its loan portfolio without compromising asset quality. As a result, after considering a tough operating scenario, we are introducing our 12M FWD price target of P$3.5 with a Market Performer recommendation, waiting for more certainty on the loan book dynamics. Moving on to 2Q16 results Concerns increased behind higher funding cost. It is known that FINDEP s top-line dynamics are restricted by the company s strategy focused on prioritizing quality over growth. Indeed, interest income declined 4.9% YOY summing its fourth consecutive quarter with yearly contractions as the company has been reducing its credit origination, in addition to a less risky asset mix, which led to a lower active rate from 69.1% in 2Q15 to 65.6%. On the funding side, FINDEP benefited in the past from low interest rates in the market, which partially supported net
margins. However, a restrictive monetary policy held by the central bank and higher interest-bearing liabilities (+4.6%) have started to add pressure on the company, leading to a 3.8% YOY expansion in interest expenses. As a result, consolidated net interest income decreased 6.1% YOY to P$982.3 million. Financial margin Figures in thousands of nominal pesos Interest Income 1,198,701 1,224,563 1,220,337 1,162,324 1,140,607-1.9% -4.8% Interest Expenditure 152,511 154,025 153,285 156,962 158,292 0.8% 3.8% Financial Margin 1,046,190 1,070,538 1,067,052 1,005,362 982,315-2.3% -6.1% Source: Company data. More restrictive credit origination policies in order to control asset quality led to mild loan portfolio growth of 0.5% YOY. However, we should mention that since 4Q15, the company s total loan portfolio includes other loans, which for 2Q16 amounted to P$108.9 million from a loan granted to Siempre Creciendo, in exchange for the collection rights to part of its payroll portfolio. Excluding this loan, total loan portfolio contracted by 1.0% YOY. Going into each business units details: The positives AEF (+6.6% YOY) and AFI (57.8% YOY) maintained their dynamics, together representing 33.3% of the consolidated loan portfolio vs. a 27.7% share in 2Q15. We should mention that AEF s operations benefited from both markets, as the formal segment increased 5.4% YOY and the informal 8.1% YOY. Advantageous comparable effect from P$108.9 million loans granted to Siempre Creciendo in 4Q15 in exchange for the collection rights to part of its payroll portfolio, for which the company expects to collect over P$180.0 million through 2021. This loan represented 1.6% of the company s loan portfolio. The FINSOL business division continues its recovery trend with a 9.8% YOY expansion. The Brazilian operations were the most dynamic as they expanded 15.2% YOY, not leaving FINSOL Mexico behind as it showed a 6.6% increase YOY. On the negative side Independencia s formal sector declined 14.3% YOY, totally affected by the 21.2% YOY decline of what was originally its core business, CrediInmediato, more than offsetting the 27.2% YOY expansion in the payroll product, which has become the growth driver of Independencia s operations. Independencia continued to step out of the informal segment, which ended up translating into a sluggish 18.9% contraction in the informal sector loan portfolio. Specifically, the CrediConstruye product was the most affected as it fell 49.3% YOY, while CrediMama and Credi Popular declined 24.8 and 18.4%, in the same order. Number of Clients by Product Type Formal Sector Loans 499,693 499,012 483,045 467,165 453,081-3.0% -9.3% CrediInmediato 499,693 499,012 483,045 467,165 453,081-3.0% -9.3% Informal Sector Loans 211,162 205,905 198,040 188,969 184,130-2.6% -12.8% CrediPopular 196,171 191,617 184,572 176,203 171,856-2.5% -12.4% CrediMama 12,455 12,062 11,437 10,865 10,467-3.7% -16.0% CrediConstruye 2,536 2,226 2,031 1,901 1,807-4.9% -28.7% Finsol Loans 176,308 177,118 177,574 171,782 171,063-0.4% -3.0% Finsol Mexico 110,973 110,270 111,685 106,292 106,859 0.5% -3.7% Finsol Brazil 65,335 66,848 65,889 65,490 64,204-2.0% -1.7% AEF 159,243 161,811 161,881 158,225 162,057 2.4% 1.8% AFI 11,862 13,030 14,162 14,611 15,570 6.6% 31.3% Total Number of Clients 1,058,268 1,056,876 1,034,702 1,000,752 985,901-1.5% -6.8%
Total Loan Portfolio by Product Type Figures in millions of nominal pesos Formal Sector Loans 3,064 3,090 2,877 2,725 2,626-3.6% -14.3% CrediInmediato 3,064 3,090 2,877 2,725 2,626-3.6% -14.3% Informal Sector Loans 801 769 721 664 650-2.1% -18.9% CrediPopular 751 722 678 625 613-1.9% -18.3% CrediMama 46 44 40 37 35-6.0% -24.7% CrediConstruye 4 3 3 2 2-17.4% -50.0% Finsol Loan Portfolio 1,175 1,141 1,200 1,193 1,289 8.1% 9.8% Finsol Mexico 746 767 799 771 796 3.3% 6.6% Finsol Brazil 428 374 401 423 493 16.8% 15.2% AEF 1,398 1,439 1,456 1,450 1,489 2.7% 6.6% AFI 539 644 734 737 851 15.4% 57.8% Others 128 120 109-9.4% NA Total Loan Portfolio 6,976 7,083 7,116 6,889 7,014 1.8% 0.5% Source: Company data Lower past due loans eased provisioning requirements. FINDEP s provisions for loan losses declined 23.3% YOY, entirely attributed to the 21.6% YOY contraction in non-performing loans as the company continued with its 100% coverage policy. This effect could be caused by the normal credit cycle, as the company significantly reduced credit originations and has shown an asset quality improvement. Financial Margin after Provisions Figures in thousands of nominal pesos Financial Margin 1,046,190 1,070,538 1,067,052 1,005,362 982,315-2.3% -6.1% Provisions for Loan Losses 373,739 345,996 394,923 292,325 286,535-2.0% -23.3% Financial Margin after Prov. 672,450 724,542 672,128 713,037 695,780-2.4% 3.5% Source: Company data FINDEP s conservative stance ended up benefiting asset quality. The NPL ratio moved from 6.0% in 1Q16 to 5.7%, aided by the 2.2% QOQ expansion in performing loans and the 3.9% sequential drop in past due loans, which in turn resulted from a more cautious credit origination and greater asset quality. Indeed, FINDEP s credit quality is reflected in the 120bp QOQ contraction of the adjusted NPL ratio considering write-offs to 10.0%, in addition to the 570bp YOY decline of the annualized cost of credit risk to 16.3%. Going into the NPL detail: Independencia s NPL ratio improved 70 bps to 7.2%, which we believe could benefit from a larger share of the payroll product as it has lower risks of default. FINSOL s NPL ratio deteriorated 30 bps QOQ, affected by the Brazilian market. FINSOL s NPL ratio increased 30 bps sequentially to 3.9%, strongly affected by the 100bp QOQ deterioration of the FINSOL Brazil unit to 4.1% due to the challenging economic environment, in our view, more than offsetting the 10bp sequential improvement within the Mexican operations to 3.8%. Lastly, AEF s and AFI s NPL ratio showed mixed results. AEF s NPL ratio increased 20 bps to 5.4%, while AFI moved from 2.5% in 1Q16 to 2.0%.
Non performing loan ratio Portfolio Breakdown by Sector 14.0% 12.2% 12.1% 12.4% 12.0% 10.0% 11.2% 10.0% Informal Sector Loans 38% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7% 6.0% 5.7% Formal Sector Loans 62% 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Source: Company data NLP Ratio NPL & Charge off Source: Company data Better asset quality and controlled operating expenses supported net income. Bottom line posted a slight 3.8% YOY increase to P$40.2 million, totally attributable to lower provisions for loan losses and a 1.5% YOY contraction in non-interest expenses given the company s efficiency initiatives to optimize operations, including a 9.5% YOY contraction in its employee base. The latter more than offset the weak credit origination, higher funding cost, and the lower net fees and commissions (-14.5% YOY). As a result, the efficiency ratio deteriorated from 65.9% in 2Q15 to 70.1%. Going into the subsidiaries details: For the fifth consecutive quarter, Independencia showed net losses. During the quarter, its core subsidiary suffered from lower net interest income mainly due to a 12.4% YOY contraction in total loan portfolio, with a less profitable mix and higher funding cost. Moreover, the company faced lower net commissions and fees, which ended up translating into an P$8.5 million net loss for the quarter. However, we should mention that in a YOY comparison, Independencia posted a net income improvement due to lower provisions for loan losses. FINSOL s bottom line decreased 42.9% YOY to P$8.0 million, affected by higher non-interest expenses in both subsidiaries, Mexico and Brazil. In our view, the credit origination recovery seen during the quarter went hand in hand with higher operating expenses. AEF s net income stood at P$35.8 million (-18.7% YOY), mainly affected by higher provisions for loan losses and operating expenses. Meanwhile, AFI posted a net income of P$4.9 million compared to the P$2.8 million net profit shown in 2Q15, due to a strong loan portfolio expansion, which led to a 68.0% YOY expansion in NII. Profitability indicators continued to lose ground. FINDEP summed its sixth consecutive quarter with yearly contractions in profitability due to lower margins and net commissions, which in turn resulted from weaker credit activity from the company. Thus, ROAE dropped 200 bps to 5.0%, while ROAA moved from 2.2% in 2Q15 to 1.7%. Profitability Indicators Figures in thousands of nominal pesos Net Income 38,693 63,365 46,879 53,044 40,160-24.3% 3.8% ROAE 7.4% 6.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.3% -3.7-205.7 ROAA 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% -2.7-56.1 BV 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.6 P/BV 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 EPS 12M 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.28 0.28 Source: Company data, net income with banking accounting principles. Note: P/BV ratio uses the share price at the end of the quarter, and today s price for 2Q16.
Residual income model Figures in millions of nominal pesos Equity value 2,756.2 Beta 1.6 RF** 6.2% Equity premium 5.0% Cost of equity 14.2% **10y Treasury+ Country Risk g 3.0% *** Perpetual growth 3.0% 0.50 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.500 3.500 3Q-4Q16e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e Terminal value Net income 104.3 267.0 332.7 395.7 448.8 4,025.5 R&D add back 40.4 82.0 85.2 88.7 96.1 861.5 Residual Income -121.0-236.9-205.9-186.4-173.0-1,551.6 PV RI -129.3-221.8-168.9-133.9-173.0-976.4 g Equity* 4,036.8 Theoretical value 2,233.6 Theoretical value per share 3.1 Implied P/E 12M FWDe Valuation Figures in millions of nominal pesos Target P/E P/E target 9.1x Implied tangible P/BV 12M FWDe Valuation Target P/BV PBV target 1.3x Theoretical mkt cap 2,154.0 Theoretical price per share 3.0 Theoretical mkt cap 3,492.9 Theoretical price per share 4.9 Average price target 3.5 Upside -8.3%
GBM Estimates - Figures in MXN Millions Financials (P$ Mill) 2015 TTM 2016e 2017e 2018e Operating Data 2015 TTM 2016e 2017e 2018e P&L AUM (P$Billion) 12 12 11 12 12 Interest Income 4,849 4,748 4,628 4,824 5,085 Branches 549 566 572 580 588 Var (%) -1.1% -3.7% -4.6% 4.2% 5.4% Clients (Thousand) 1,035 986 995 1,012 1,038 Net Interest Income 4,232 4,125 3,995 4,118 4,313 Financial Margin 87.3% 86.9% 86.3% 85.4% 84.8% Valuation 2015 TTM 2016e 2017e 2018e Provisions for loan losses 1,449 1,320 1,196 1,208 1,243 EPS 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.37 0.46 Var (%) 5.3% -10.7% -17.5% 1.0% 2.9% BV per share 5.25 5.64 5.78 6.16 6.62 Non-interest income 804 730 727 762 825 P/E 13.2x 13.5x 14.0x 10.3x 8.3x Non-interest expenses 3,304 3,256 3,235 3,280 3,407 P/B 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x Var (%) 0.4% -1.8% -2.1% 1.4% 3.9% Efficiency ratio 65.6% 67.1% 68.5% 67.2% 66.3% Return 2015 TTM 2016e 2017e 2018e Taxes 74 76 94 126 157 ROA 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% 2.7% Net Profit 209 203 198 267 333 ROE 5.6% 5.0% 4.8% 6.1% 7.0% Var (%) -34.3% -19.6% -5.5% 35.2% 24.6% ROE Adjusted 7.6% 7.4% 7.2% 9.7% 12.1% Net Mg. 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 5.5% 6.5% NIM 52.1% 49.2% 47.4% 46.5% 46.2% Balance Sheet Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cash and Equivalents 1,489 1,771 1,681 1,776 1,874 Buyback Yield 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% Total Loan Portfolio 7,116 7,014 7,164 7,519 7,931 Performing loans 6,636 6,618 6,755 7,089 7,459 Funding sources 2015 TTM 2016e 2017e 2018e Past due loans 480 396 409 430 472 Deposits to total loans 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x Allowance for loan losses -480-396 -409-430 -472 Interbank debt to loans 0.8x 0.9x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x Total Assets 11,819 12,125 11,315 11,743 12,211 Equity to total loans 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.6x 0.6x Deposits 0 0 0 0 0 Total Liabilities 8,062 8,088 7,173 7,335 7,470 Asset Quality 2015 TTM 2016e 2017e 2018e Equity 3,757 4,037 4,141 4,408 4,741 NPL ratio 6.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.9% Write-offs 5.7% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% Capitalization Structure Coverage ratio 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Basic Capital 2,818 3,028 3,106 3,306 3,556 Reserves to total loans 6.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.9% Complementary Capital - - - - - Risk Weighted Assets 8,605 8,785 8,845 9,295 9,805 Capitalization 2015 TTM 2016e 2017e 2018e Credit Risk Assets 7,116 7,014 7,164 7,519 7,931 Tier I Ratio 32.7% 34.5% 35.1% 35.6% 36.3% Mkt and Oper. RA 1,489 1,771 1,681 1,776 1,874 Tier II Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Capitalization Ratio 32.7% 34.5% 35.1% 35.6% 36.3%
Investment Risks In addition to the risks related to macroeconomic aspects, we believe the most relevant risk in the Mexican market is: during the last couple of years, there has been a significant flow of global funds into the Mexican market in search of new investment opportunities. There is no guarantee that, going forward, these flows will remain at current levels. Some other risks pertaining to Financiera Independencia include, but are not limited to: 1) Changes in government policy which might or might not affect the microfinance industry; 2) Interest Rate Fluctuations; 3) Competition incentives; 4) Possible increase in the nonperforming loans ratio; 5) Failures in the information system. 23/07/2015 4.80 M arket Performer 5.0 4.5 22/10/2015 4.30 M arket Performer 18/02/2016 3.80 M arket Performer 21/07/2016 3.50 M arket Performer 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Price Price Target Important Disclosures: The analyst or analysts involved in the creation of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal opinions and that they have not and will not receive direct or indirect compensation for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report. This report has been prepared by GBM and is subject to change without notice. GBM and employees shall have no obligation to update or amend any information contained herein. This report is for informational purposes only, based upon publicly available information, which we believed is reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. GBM makes no express or implied representations or warranties that such information is accurate or complete and, therefore, GBM and employees shall not in any way be liable for related claims. This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any trading strategy. The information and analyses contained herein are not intended as tax, legal, or investment advice and may not be suitable for your specific circumstances. Each investor shall make their own determination of the suitability of an investment of any securities referred to herein and should consult their own tax, legal, investment, or other advisors, to determine such suitability. This report may discuss numerous securities, some of which may not be qualified for sale in certain countries or states therein and may therefore not be offered to investors in such countries or states. This report or any portion hereof may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold or distributed without the written consent of GBM.