Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah League of Cities and Towns June 18, 2018
Utah Economic Conditions
CA 0.6% OR 1.4% WA 1.7% NV 2.0% Utah Population 3 rd Fastest Growing in U.S. ID 2.2% UT 1.9% AZ 1.6% AK -0.2% MT 1.1% WY -1.0% CO 1.4% NM 0.1% Percent Change: 2016 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.0% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.4% KS 0.3% 0.2% OK 0.2% MN 0.9% IA 0.5% MO 0.4% AR 0.5% WI 0.4% LA 0.0% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.3% IN 0.5% TN 1.0% AL 0.3% OH 0.3% KY 0.4% WV -0.7% VT 0.0% PA 0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.3% GA 1.1% VA 0.7% FL 1.6% NH 0.6% NY 0.1% ME 0.4% DC 1.4% CT 0.0% DE 1.0% MD 0.5% MA 0.5% RI 0.2% NJ 0.4% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI -0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Utah Counties Growth Outpacing Nation Percent Change: 2016 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 0.7% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 900,000 600,000 300,000 0 3,101,833 22,587 34,886 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0-10,000-20,000 Components of Population Change 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Sources: U.S. Census Bureau e = estimate, f = forecast
Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2016 to 2017 State Average = 1.9% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Greater Wasatch Population Growth Rates By City 2015 to 2016 State Average = 1.8% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Salt Lake County Population Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Utah County Population Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Davis County Population Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Weber County Population Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Washington County Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Cache County Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Utah has the Fastest Employment Growth Percent Change in Employment for States: May 2017 to May 2018 U.S. Rate = 1.7% UT Rate = 3.4% NH 1.9% MA 1.6% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% HI 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Total Employment at New Highs 1,600 1,500 Gain of 339,700 jobs from low in 2010 Thousands of Employees 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 Loss of 92,000 jobs from 2007-2010 800 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand Total Nonfarm Employment
Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: May 2017 to May 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -3.5% Total: 3.5% 0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 2.9% 3.1% 4.5% 4.4% 3.6% 4.0% 7.6% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: May 2017 to May 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction -300 7,400 Manufacturing 3,700 Trade, Trans., Utilities 12,400 Information Financial Activity 100 2,600 Total: 51,900 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 9,100 Ed. & Health Serv. 7,000 Leisure & Hospitality Other Services 200 5,700 Government 4,000-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,00013,00015,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Changes and Differences Between US and Utah Economies Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BEA National and Product Account Data
Changes in Utah s Tax base Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah office of Legislative Research and General counsel data
Utah Employment Change Rates By County May 2017 to May 2018 State Rate = 3.4% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Has the 11 th Lowest Unemployment Rate May 2018 U.S. Rate = 3.8%; UT = 3.0% VT 3.4% NH 4.4% MA 3.8% CT NJ 3.9% 2.7% RI 3.5% MD 2.6% DC 5.7% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Unemployment Rates By County April 2018 State Rate = 3.1% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Personal Income Growth 3 rd Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Personal Income : 2016-2017 U.S. = 3.1%, UT = 4.4% ID = 4.7% VT 3.4% NH 4.4% MA 3.8% CT NJ 3.9% 2.7% RI 3.5% MD 2.6% DE 2.5% DC 5.7% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Poverty Rate 7 th Lowest in the Nation CA 14.3% WA 11.3% OR 13.3% NV 13.8% AK 9.9% ID 14.4% UT 10.1% AZ 16.3% 2016 U.S. Rate = 14.0%, Utah Rate = 10.1% MT 13.3% WY 11.3% HI 9.3% CO 11.0% NM 19.8% ND 10.6% SD 13.3% NE 11.4% KS 12.1% TX 15.6% OK 16.3% MN 9.9% IA 11.8% MO 14.0% AR 17.1% WI 11.8% LA 20.1% IL 13.0% MS 20.8% 18.1% + MI 15.0% IN 14.1% TN 15.8% AL 17.1% 15.1% to 18.0% 12.1% to 15.0% 10.1% to 12.0% 10.0% or less OH 14.6% KY 18.5% WV 17.8% VT 11.9% PA 12.9% VA 11.0% NC 15.4% SC 15.3% GA 16.0% FL 14.6% NH 7.2% NY 14.6% ME 12.5% DC 18.6% CT 9.8% DE 11.6% MD 9.6% MA 10.4% RI 12.8% NJ 10.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Community Survey 1-year estimate
Strong Consumer Sentiment 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Jul-12 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: 110.7 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group
Year-over-year percent change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Utah Inflation Hits Highest-Level Recorded Jul-2011 Oct-2011 Jan-2012 Apr-2012 Jul-2012 Oct-2012 Jan-2013 Apr-2013 Jul-2013 Oct-2013 Jan-2014 Apr-2014 Jul-2014 Oct-2014 Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Jan-2016 Apr-2016 Jul-2016 Oct-2016 Jan-2017 Apr-2017 Jul-2017 Utah 5.0% US 2.8% Oct-2017 Jan-2018 Apr-2018 United States CPI: +2.8% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +5.0% Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
$275,000 $255,000 $235,000 $215,000 $195,000 $175,000 $155,000 $135,000 $115,000 $95,000 1996 Utah home values continue to rise 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Utah Dec. 2017 $262,200 2015 2016 U.S. Dec. 2017 $206,300 2017 United States Utah Source: Zillow Research
Household Creation Surpasses Housing Units Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Population Projections and Ivory Boyer Construction Database
Home Prices Increasing Faster Than Wages Source: Wall Street Journal
Source: Wall Street Journal Multigenerational Households on the Rise
Utah Economic Indicators 2016-2019f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
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