- US LEI & CEI - 11 1 Figure. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (=, ratio scale) 11 1 Leading Economic Indicators recovering rapidly. Coincident Economic Indicators recovering slowly. 9 9 9 9 7 Leading Economic Indicators Coincident Economic Indicators 7 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 Source: Conference Board. 1 1 Figure. LABOR FORCE vs. EMPLOYMENT (millions, sa) 1 1 Employment may be starting to rebound. 1 1 1 1 11 Labor Force Household Employment Payroll Employment 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
7 - US Unemployment Indicators - Figure. 7 Jobless claims falling. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa, four-week moving average) 71 7 7 77 79 1 7 9 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. /9 1 Figure 7. 1 Unemployment rates may be peaking. 1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (percent, sa) Unemployment Rate Plus Underemployment Rate* (solid line) 1 U- Rate** (dotted line) Civilian Unemployment Rate (thin line) 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * Total number of people working part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force. ** Unemployed plus marginally attached Page 9 / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
Productivity remains on solid uptrend. - US Productivity & Real Compensation - 19 1 1 1 1 1 9 Figure. PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES (199=, ratio scale) Nonfarm Business Nonfinancial Corporations Manufacturing Q1 19 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 1 7 9 71 7 7 77 79 1 7 9 91 9 9 97 99 1 7 9 11 1 Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 9. REAL COMPENSATION PER WORKER & PRODUCTIVITY 1 Productivity is the main driver of real compensation per worker. Real Pre-Tax Compensation Per Payroll Employee* (thousand dollars, -month average, sa) Nonfarm Productivity (199=) 1 1 9 Real Wages & Salaries Per Payroll Employee (thousand dollars, -month average, sa) 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 * Three-month average of wages & salaries plus supplements to wages & salaries divided by personal consumption expenditures deflator divided by payroll employment. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
7 Figure 9. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES - US Consumer Spending - Total 7 1-1 - - 199 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 1-1 - - 1 1 - - Durables Nondurables - - -1 1-1 - 199 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 Services 199 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -1 1-1 - Page 1 / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
- US Auto & Home Sales - Figure 91. RETAIL UNIT AUTO SALES (million units, saar) Auto sales recovering. 1 Total* 1 1 1 Domestic Cars + Domestic Light Trucks Industrial Production: Motor Vehicle Assemblies (Autos & Light Trucks) Imports 1 7 9 11 * Includes domestic cars, light trucks, and imports. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. The -ma in housing starts leads real residential investment by months, and suggests steep declines in investment last quarter and again this quarter. 1 1 1 Figure 9. HOUSING STARTS vs REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT IN GDP Housing Starts (thousand units, saar, -ma pushed ahead months) Real Residential Investment (billion dollars, saar) 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Q1 Jul 7 Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
- US Consumer Debt & Savings - Figure 9. CONSUMER CREDIT & PERSONAL SAVING Consumers are saving more, borrowing less. Personal Saving (-month sum) Mar Consumer Credit Outstanding (-month change) - Mar - - 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis. - 7% of household debt is mortgages. 7 7 7 Figure 9. HOUSEHOLD MORTGAGE DEBT (as a percent of total liabilities) Q 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
Figure 9. REAL ESTATE (trillion dollars, nsa) - US Real Estate - During Q-9, household real estate was worth $1. trillion, with equity of $. trillion and mortgage debt of $. trillion. Owners equity was.1% of total real estate value. 7 Owners Equity in Household Real Estate Home Mortgages* OWNERS EQUITY (as a percent of household real estate) 7 Q 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 Q * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Figure 9. HOME PRICES Home prices may be near rock bottom. 1 Median Existing Home Price (thousand dollars, -month average) S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (Q1-=) Q1 1 S&P/Case-Shiller Metros Home Price Index (Jan =) FHFA House Price Index (Q1-19=) Q 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 Source: National Association of Realtors, Macro Markets and Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
. 7.... Figure 97. - US Household Assets - ASSETS & NET WORTH OF HOUSEHOLDS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Q. 7.... Household assets and net worth rose to $. trillion and $. trillion, respectively, during Q-9. 7.. 19. 7.. 19... Assets Net Worth 1. 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. 1. 1. Figure 9. ASSETS OF HOUSEHOLDS (trillion dollars) 1. 1. US households have a diversified portfolio of assets... 9. 7. Corporate Equities: Directly Held Owners Equity in Household Real Estate Equity in Noncorporate Business Mutual Fund Shares Pension Fund Reserves Q.. 9. 7....... 1. 1... -1. 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9-1. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
- US Mutual Funds - Figure 99. EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS* (-month net inflows, billion dollars) SECTOR - - 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 - GROWTH & INCOME GLOBAL & INTERNATIONAL - - - 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 - GROWTH EMERGING MARKETS 1-97 9 99 1 7 9 11 97 9 99 1 7 9 11-1 AGGRESSIVE GROWTH REGIONAL 1 - - 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 - - -1 - * Net sales (including reinvested dividends) less redemptions plus the net result of fund switches. Source: Investment Company Institute. Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
- Equity & Bond Funds - 1 Figure. RETAIL MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (billion dollars) -month change 1-month change - 199-19 1 7 9 - - BOND MUTUAL FUNDS* (billion dollars) -month sum 1-month change 1 7 9 - EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS* (billion dollars) -month sum 1-month change - - 1 7 9 - - Page 7 / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
Growth rates of real capital spending and profits are highly correlated. 1 Figure 1. - US Capital Spending - S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & REAL CAPITAL SPENDING / 1 - - - -1 - - S&P Forward Earnings* (weekly) Real Capital Spending** - -1 - - - - - - 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 - - * -week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 199, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. ** Nonresidential fixed investment including producers durable equipment, software and structures. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Thomson Financial. Figure. REAL CAPITAL SPENDING ON PRODUCERS DURABLE EQUIPMENT & SOFTWARE Low-tech and high-tech capital spending growth likely to recover as profits do the same. 1 Q1 1 - - - - -1-1 - - - - Real Equipment & Software Total High-Tech* Low-Tech 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 - - - - * Includes computers and peripheral equipment, software, and communications equipment purchased by businesses. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
9 - - - - Figure. PRICE DIFFUSION INDEXES: PHILADELPHIA REGION VS NATIONAL ISM Prices-Paid Philadephia Fed s Current Prices-Paid - US Pricing - 199 199 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Outlook Survey. 9 - - - - PRICE DIFFUSION INDEXES: PHILADELPHIA REGION Current Prices-Paid Current Prices-Received - - - - - 1 - - -1 - - - 199 199 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Outlook Survey. NFIB SURVEY (sa) Net Percent Raising Average Selling Prices Net Percent Planning to Raise Average Selling Prices 199 199 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 7 9 11 Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). - 1 - - -1 - - - Page 9 / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
1 Figure. - US Inflation - IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS 1 The GDP measure of inflation rose.% y/y during the first quarter of. Prices fell 1.9% for nonfinancial corporations over the latest four-quarter period. GDP Nonfinancial Corporate Business Q1-7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure. GDP PRICE DEFLATORS In GDP, goods fell 1.%, while services prices rose 1.7% y/y during Q1- Services Goods Q1 - - - 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 - Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
- US Inflation - 7 Figure. CONSUMER PRICES 7 Core CPI rose 1.%, while the PCED inflation rate rose 1.% over the past months. The CPI covers just urban workers, while the PCED covers all consumers. Consumer Prices Excluding Food & Energy PCED* CPI 1 1 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 * Personal consumption expenditures deflator food & beverages. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 7. NONFARM HOURLY COMPENSATION vs. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX Hourly compensation includes pay tied to profits unlike ECI. Nonfarm Hourly Compensation Employment Cost Index: Private Industry Q1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 71 / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
11 9 Figure. - US Inflation - AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS vs. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Average Hourly Earnings Civilian Unemployment Rate 11 9 7 7 Weaker labor markets tend to depress wage inflation, which tend to lower rent inflation. 1 7. 7. 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 9. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS vs. TENANT-OCCUPIED RENT 1 7. 7...... Average Hourly Earnings CPI: Tenant-Occupied Rent............... 1. 1. 1. 1... 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11.. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
- Government Social Benefits - Figure 1. US GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS TO PERSONS* As a percent of: US government social benefits to persons at record high relative to earned income. Compensation of Employees Wages & Salaries 1 1 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 * Included in personal income. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure 111. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS ON SOCIAL SECURITY PLUS MEDICARE/ POPULATION & OVER (-month sum, thousand dollars) Federal Social Security and Medicare outlays per senior citizen rose to $, based on -month sum. Social Security & Medicare Outlays Per Senior Citizen 1 1 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and US Treasury Department. Page 7 / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.
Figure 1. POPULATION & OVER (percent) - Demographics - Dependency ratio will increase significantly in coming years as Baby Boomers turn +. 1 As a Percent of: Total Population* Labor Force Payroll Employment 1 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 9 11 1 * Civilian noninstitutional populuation. Source: US Department Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Figure 11. AGE WAVE & BOND YIELD 1 Interesting correlation between Age Wave and bond yield. 11 9 7 Age Wave* Ten-Year Treasury Yield** 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 * Percent of labor force 1- years old. ** Five-year moving average of ten-year government bond yield. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 7 / June 7, / Strategist s Handbook www.