MONTHLY BULLETIN - N August 1 DEBT GENERAL DATA... 1 PRIMARY MARKET... SECONDARY MARKET... THE FRENCH ECONOMY... 6 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS... 7 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING... 8 http://www.aft.gouv.fr Bloomberg TRESOR <Go> - Reuters TRESOR - Pages Bridge Menu 1 78 Available in French and English Publication manager: Philippe Mills Editor: Agence France Trésor DEBT GENERAL DATA French government long- and medium-term negotiable debt on July 1, 1 nominal value of each line, 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 16 17 18 19 BTAN OAT linked Auction indicative calendar 6 Non-resident holdings of French government negotiable debt securities as a % of negotiable debt outstanding 7 68 66 6 6 6 8 6 8 8, 8,7 8,7 9/7** 1/7** 11/7** 61, 6, 61,6 6, 6,1 6,9 6,9 66, 67,9 69, 1/7** /8** 6/8** 9/8** 1/8** /9** 6/9** 9/9** 1/9** /1* Source: Banque de France (*) figures revised quarterly (**) figures revised annually BTF BTAN / index linked OAT OAT August 1 auction date 9 16 - - settlement date 1 19 6 sept. - - September 1 auction date 6 1 7-16 settlement date 9 16-1 7 anticipated or delayed auctions (bank holidays, etc.) Monthly bulletin N August 1
PRIMARY MARKET 18 16 1 1 1 8 6 Long- and medium-term financing over the year on July 1, 1 realized medium-term realized long-term Cumulative total on July 1, 1 : 16 billion Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. OATs and BTANs issues and cumulative total on July 1, 1 1 1 BTAN,7% 1/1 OAT % /1 BTAN,% 7/1 BTAN,7% 9/1 OAT,7% 1/1 BTAN,7% 1/1 OAT % /1 BTAN,% 7/1 BTAN,% 1/1 BTAN % 7/1 BTAN,% 1/1 BTAN % 7/1 OAT i 1,6% 7/1 OAT % 1/1 OAT % 1/16 OAT,7% /17 OATi 1% 7/17 OAT % /18 OAT,% 1/18 OATi 1,% 7/19 OAT,7% 1/19 OAT,% / OAT i,% 7/ OAT,7% /1 OAT i 1,1% 7/ OATi,1% 7/ OAT,% 1/ OAT 6% 1/ OAT,% /6 OAT,% /9 OAT,7% 1/ OAT,7% / OAT i 1,8% 7/ OAT,% /1 OAT % /6 * nominal value issued before 1 issued in 1 OATs and BTANs: indicative repayment schedule on July 1, 1 interest redemption 1 1 8/1 9/1 1/1 11/1 1/1 1/11 /11 /11 /11 /11 6/11 7/11 Source : Agence France Trésor Monthly bulletin N August 1
m OAT and BTAN auctions July 1 OAT 8 years OAT 1 years OAT 16 years BTAN years OAT years BTAN years OATi 9 years OAT i 1 years 1//18 // //6 9//1 //1 1/7/1 7//19 7//,%,%,%,7%,%,% 1,% 1,1% Auction date 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 Settlement date 7/6/1 7/6/1 7/6/1 7//1 7//1 7//1 7//1 7//1 Amount announced < 6, --- 7, > < 7, ---- 8, > < 1, ---- 1,8 > Bid amount, 7,8,9 6,6,9 6,6 1,,1 Amount served 1,,17,9, 1,,,6 1,1 of which: NCTs before auction,,,,,,,, NCTs after auction,11,9,9,1,6 1,99,, Total issued amount 1,1,11,69,76 1,8,19,6 1,1 Bid-to-cover ratio,1,1 1,,18, 1,6,8 1,9 Weighted average price 11,9% 1,86% 99,7% 99,% 17,71% 1,11% 1,77% 96,% Yield to maturity,76%,%,%,97% 1,1% 1,98%,98% 1,% Indexation coefficient* - - - - - - 1,16 1,16 * as of the settlement date m BTF auctions July 1 BTF BTF BTF BTF BTF BTF BTF 1 month month month month 6 month 9 month 1 year Auction date 7//1 7//1 7//1 Settlement date 7/8/1 7/8/1 7/8/1 Maturity 9//1 1//1 6//11 Total issued amount, 1,, Weighted average rate,9%,17%,% Auction date 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 Settlement date 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 Maturity 1/1/1 1//1 6//11 Total issued amount, 1,1,1 Weighted average rate,16%,7%,61% Auction date 7/19/1 7/19/1 7/19/1 Settlement date 7//1 7//1 7//1 Maturity 9/16/1 1/1/1 1/7/11 Total issued amount 1,8,,6 Weighted average rate,1%,%,61% Auction date 7/6/1 7/6/1 7/6/1 7/6/1 Settlement date 7/9/1 7/9/1 7/9/1 7/9/1 Maturity 1/7/1 1/8/1 1/7/11 7/8/11 Total issued amount 1,7,69 1,8,77 Weighted average rate,96%,66%,7%,69% Monthly bulletin N August 1
SECONDARY MARKET French government yield curve quote at end of the month, in % structure in % OAT ownership by type of holder first quarter 1 1 non-resident investors french insurance companies 1 18 6 french credit institutions UCITS (french money funds) 1 yr yrs 1 years years years years 7/9 6/1 7/1 others (french) Source: Bloomberg Source: Banque de France Breakeven inflation daily quotes in %.8.. 1.9 1.6 1. 1..7..1 8/1/8 1/1/8 /1/9 8/1/9 1/1/9 /1/1 8/1/1 France 1 years (1) Euro zone 1 years () France years () Euro zone years () (1) difference between the yield of the OAT.7% April 17 and the yield of the OATi 1% July 17 () difference between the yield of the OAT.% April 19 and the yield of the OAT i.% July () difference between the yield of the OAT.% April 9 and the yield of the OATi.% July 9 () difference between the yield of the OAT.7% October and the yield of the OAT i.1% July Source: Bloomberg Negotiable government debt and swaps end end end end end end end end of June end of July 6 7 8 9 1 1 Negotiable government debt outstanding 788 8 877 877 91 1,17 1,18 1,8 1,19 OAT 1 9 61 61 681 719 781 79 BTAN 168 18 189 198 1 BTF 19 97 9 66 79 18 1 7 Swaps outstanding 61 61 8 18 17 Average maturity of the negotiable debt before swaps years 6 years 6 years 7 years 7 years 6 years 6 years 6 years 7 years 97 days 79 days 67 days days 1 days 9 days 6 days days 1 days after swaps years 6 years 6 years 7 years 7 years 6 years 6 years 6 years 7 years days days 8 days 16 days 9 days 76 days days 6 days days Monthly bulletin N August 1
Turnover on the most liquid OATs and the most liquid BTANs daily average () Primary dealers, monthly fixed-rate repo transactions 1 1 OAT BTAN 7/9 8/9 9/9 1/9 11/9 1/9 1/1 /1 /1 /1 /1 6/1 7/1 7 6 6 1 1 1- days -11 days 1- days > days 6/8 8/8 1/8 1/8 /9 /9 6/9 8/9 1/9 1/9 /1 /1 6/1 Source: Euroclear France Source: primary dealers Primary dealers, repo outstanding at end of month 6 1 1 6/8 8/8 1/8 1/8 /9 /9 6/9 8/9 1/9 1/9 /1 /1 6/1 fixed-rate repos floating-rate repos others Source: primary dealers Stripping and reassembly activity stripping reassembly strips outstanding (right-hand scale) 6 1 6 7 8 9 1 See tab on page 9 for more details on stripped bonds Source: Euroclear France Monthly bulletin N August 1
THE FRENCH ECONOMY Macro-economic forecast Real growth rate as a % 9 1 11 French GDP -,6 1,, Household consumption,6 1,,6 Business investment -8,,6 6, Exports -1,,7,8 Imports -1,7,6, Consumer prices,1 1, 1, (on an annual average basis) Recent economic indicators Industrial output*, year-on-year.7% 6/1 Household consumption*, year-on-year -1.9% 6/1 Unemployment rate (ILO) 9.9% /1 Consumer prices, year-on-year all items 1.7% 7/1 all items excluding tobacco 1.6% 7/1 Trade balance, fob-fob, sa -.8 EUR bn 6/1 " " -. EUR bn /1 Current account balance, sa -.7 EUR bn 6/1 " " -. EUR bn /1 1-year constant maturity rate (TEC1).99% 7//1 -month interest rate (Euribor).896% 7//1 EUR / USD 1.8 7//1 EUR / JPY 11.6 7//1 Source: Ministry of the Economy, Industry and Employment *manufactured goods Source: Insee; Ministry of the Economy, Industry and Employment; Banque de France Gross domestic product at chain-linked previous year prices Variation in % Euro exchange rate Daily quotes... 1. 1... -. -1. -1. -. -. -. -. quarterly (left-hand scale) year on year (right-hand scale) 1 6 7 8 9 1 1-1 - - - 1.6 1.6 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.1 1.1 1. 1. 1/1/7 /1/8 Euro/dollar (left-hand scale) Euro/y en (right-hand scale) 6/1/8 9/1/8 1/1/8 /1/9 6/1/9 9/1/9 1/1/9 /1/1 6/1/1 18 17 17 16 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 Source: Insee, quarterly national accounts Source: European Central Bank Government budget monthly position end of June level 8 9 8 9 1 General budget balance -6,99-19,91-17, -9,6-7, revenue 91,1 7, 16,1 117, 11,66 expenditure 8,11 67,1 17,6 176,8 189, Balance of special Treasury accounts,7-8,1-1, -,1-1, General budget outturn -6,7-18, -,78-8, -61,67 Source: Ministry of the Budget, Public Accounts and State Reform for more information: http://www.budget.gouv.fr/ Public finance: general government deficit and debt As a % of GDP 9. 8. 7. 6..... 1. deficit (left-hand scale) 7. 6.9 1. 8.8.1 66. 6.9 6.9.1.6 1.9. debt (right-hand scale) 87. 8, 86, 87. 78,1 8, 7, 67, 6.7 6.8.7. 6 7 8 9 1 6,,6, 11 1 1 88. 8. 8. 76. 7. 68. 6. 6. 6.. 8. Source: according to Maastricht Treaty, Insee and Ministry of the Economy, Industry and Employment Monthly bulletin N August 1 6
Timetable for the release of French economic indicators 6 Foreign trade in June 8 Central government budget: statement at end of June 1 Industrial output in June 11 Balance of payments in June 1 Consumer prices: provisional index for July 1 Quarterly national accounts: first results Q-1 1 Payroll employment: provisional results Q-1 Job seekers in July 7 Industrial investments: July survey August 1 September 1 Harmonized index of consumer prices Eurozone (Eurostat) Index for July: August 16 Index for August: September 1 8 Central government budget: statement at end of July 9 Payroll employment: final results Q-1 1 Industrial output in July 1 Balance of payments in July 1 Consumer prices: index for August Industrial trends: monthly survey for September Quarterly national accounts: final results Q-1 Job seekers in August 8 Household consumption of manufactured goods in July/August INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Consumer price index General government debt in 9 Year-on-year % change As a % of GDP 6. 189. 1-1 Japan U.K. - USA euro zone France - 6/8 1/8 6/9 1/9 6/1 17. 1. 1. 1. 7.... 11.8 78.7 8.9 68.1 78.1 7. U.K. France Germany Italy euro zone USA Japan Source: statistical institutes Source: Eurostat, OECD Monthly bulletin N August 1 7
FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING - DETTE NEGOCIABLE DE L ETAT OAT au 1 juillet 1 / fungible Treasury bonds at July 1, 1 En euros CODE ISIN Euroclear France Libellé de l'emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Coefficient d'indexation / indexation coefficient Valeur nominale/ face value démembré / stripped CODE ISIN Euroclear France Libellé de l'emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Coefficient d'indexation / indexation coefficient Valeur nominale/ face value démembré / stripped Échéance 1 1 9 618 FR187 OAT,% octobre 1 1 9 618 97 8 Échéance 11 86 FR771 OAT 6,% avril 11 18 98 71 8 69 9 FR197 OATi 1,6% juillet 11 1 71 98 (1) 1,1196 1 8 FR18787 OAT % octobre 11 1 6 886 16 9 Échéance 1 6 791 1 8 FR1888 OAT % avril 1 76 11 8 18 FR1881 OAT i % juillet 1 17 1 6 96 (1) 1,1798 1 9 FR18869 OAT,7% octobre 1 1 69 1 9 67 FR778 OAT 8,% 6 décembre 1 8 697 9 Échéance 1 6 6 16 FR188989 OAT % avril 1 18 879 76 FR1889 OATi,% juillet 1 17 87 18 767 (1) 1,1719 1 717 88 71 FR1111 OAT % octobre 1 9 77 679 1 88 Échéance 1 8 988 7 FR161 OAT % avril 1 7 7 6 FR111 OAT % octobre 1 18 6 971 99 1 Échéance 1 6 799 8 1 FR116 OAT,% avril 1 19 88 1 89 FR11 OAT i 1,6% juillet 1 1 71 18 1 (1) 1,11881 1 FR11681 OAT % octobre 1 9 69 89 Échéance 16 9 FR1887 OAT,% avril 16 87 FR18761 OAT % octobre 16 81 Échéance 17 6 9 9 6 FR111 OAT,7% avril 17 7 1 6 FR1176 OATi 1% juillet 17 1 8 9 6 (1) 1,7967 19 FR11717 OAT,% octobre 17 18 1 1 Échéance 18 1 6 FR1698 OAT % avril 18 FR16777 OAT,% octobre 18 19 11 Échéance 19 6 6 7 FR18911 OAT,% avril 19 8 11 6 FR18 OATi 1,% juillet 19 89 8 9 (1) 1,16 818 FR791 OAT 8,% octobre 19 8 8 9 89 86 1 FR1776161 OAT,7% octobre 19 1 666 1 FR79 OAT cap. 9,8% 1 décembre 19 18 7 61 () 6 69 1 (1) Encours OAT indexées = valeur nominale x coefficient d'indexation / indexed bonds outstanding = face value x indexation coefficient () y compris intérêts capitalisés au 1/1/9 / including coupons capitalized at 1/1/9 ; non offerte à la souscription / not open to subscription () valeur actualisée au 8//9 / actualized value at /8/9 ; non offerte à la souscription / not open to subscription OATi : OAT indexée sur l'indice français des prix à la consommation (hors tabac) / OAT indexed on the French consumer price index (excluding tobacco) OAT i : OAT indexée sur l'indice des prix à la consommation harmonisé de la zone euro (hors tabac) / OAT indexed on the eurozone harmonized index of consumer price (excluding tobacco) Échéance 7 9 6 FR1818 OAT,% avril FR19 OAT i,% juillet 86 6 (1) 1,117 19 97 Échéance 1 9 677 FR119997 OAT,7% avril 1 9 677 6 6 7 Échéance 7 FR71 OAT 8,% avril 1 99 99 8 9 FR189976 OAT i 1,1% juillet 8 6 (1) 1,198 Échéance 6 61 88 FR718 OAT 8,% avril 1 66 19 9 6 86 6 FR1891 OATi,1% juillet 8 18 98 (1) 1,666 8 1 FR16698 OAT,% octobre 1 176 1 Échéance 1 86 98 118 FR711 OAT 6% octobre 1 86 98 118 6 9 Échéance 6 69 FR19169 OAT,% avril 6 69 Échéance 8 17 9 96 FR716 OAT zéro coupon 8 mars 8 17 9 96 () 6 6 Échéance 9 8 8 79 FR7118 OAT,% avril 9 19 6 88 8 1 9 FR1861 OATi,% juillet 9 8 89 7 1 (1) 1,19 7 1 1 Échéance 1 1 66 87 FR188799 OAT i,1% juillet 1 88 7 (1) 1,168 9 69 FR1876 OAT,7% octobre 1 6 8 9 99 Échéance 17 88 FR176 OAT,7% avril 17 88 6 186 Échéance 8 889 FR1711 OAT % octobre 8 889 7 Échéance 7 1 81 6 FR1767 OAT i 1,8% juillet 7 1 81 6 (1) 1,719 6 81 Échéance 1 11 968 FR17719 OAT,% avril 1 11 968 7 Échéance 1 96 FR117197 OAT % avril 1 96 679 17 Échéance 6 FR18796 OAT % avril 6 71 Total OAT / total fungible Treasury bonds 79 7 9 96 Encours démembré /stripped outstanding 8 19 6 En % des lignes démembrables As a % of strippable bonds 6, % Durée de vie moyenne Average maturity 1 ans et 9 jours 1 years and 9 days Monthly bulletin N August 1 8
BTAN au 1 juillet 1 Treasury notes at July 1, 1 BTF au 1 juillet 1 Treasury bills at July 1, 1 En euros En euros CODE ISIN Emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Échéance 1 9 97 FR1187776 BTAN,7% 1 septembre 1 9 97 Échéance 11 16 1 FR1886 BTAN % 1 janvier 11 18 7 1 FR18879 BTAN,% 1 juillet 11 18 8 1 FR116819 BTAN 1,% 1 septembre 11 16 Échéance 1 1 FR199786 BTAN,7% 1 janvier 1 19 68 FR11979186 BTAN,% 1 juillet 1 1 16 FR11817 BTAN,7% septembre 1 9 88 Échéance 1 867 FR118766 BTAN,7% 1 janvier 1 19 1 FR11688 BTAN,% 1 juillet 1 16 Échéance 1 8 FR11611978 BTAN,% 1 janvier 1 78 FR1168 BTAN % 1 juillet 1 18 7 Échéance 1 9 8 FR117866 BTAN,% 1 janvier 1 7 FR118618 BTAN % 1 juillet 1 9 1 (1) Encours BTAN indexés = valeur nominale x coefficient d'indexation / indexed bonds outstanding = face value x indexation coefficient Échéance / Maturity Encours / Outstanding BTF août 1 9 16 BTF 1 août 1 7 7 BTF 19 août 1 8 9 BTF 6 août 1 8 66 BTF septembre 1 8 1 BTF 9 septembre 1 6 11 BTF 16 septembre 1 1 7 BTF septembre 1 9 17 BTF septembre 1 9 96 BTF 7 octobre 1 9 716 BTF 1 octobre 1 9 8 BTF 1 octobre 1 8 1 BTF 8 octobre 1 69 BTF novembre 1 7 8 BTF 18 novembre 1 8 BTF décembre 1 8 6 BTF 16 décembre 1 9 67 BTF décembre 1 1 BTF 1 janvier 11 8 799 BTF 7 janvier 11 67 BTF 1 février 11 9 66 BTF 1 mars 11 8 BTF 7 avril 11 7 6 BTF mai 11 7 78 BTF 1 juin 11 67 BTF juin 11 BTF 8 juillet 11 77 Total BTAN / total Treasury notes 1 76 1 Total BTF / total Treasury bills 87 Durée de vie moyenne des BTAN ans et 1 jours Durée de vie moyenne des BTF 11 jours Average maturity of BTANs years and 1 days Average maturity of BTFs 11 days Dette négociable de l Etat au 1 juillet 1 / French government negotiable debt at July 1, 1 Encours total / total outstanding 1 19 7 1 9 néant / void Durée de vie moyenne 7 ans et 1 jours Average maturity 7 years and 1 days Réserve de titres de la Caisse de la dette publique au 1 juillet 1 / Securities held in reserve by Caisse de la dette publique at July 1, 1 Monthly bulletin N August 1 9