The Implications of the UK s EU Membership Referendum for the Travel Industry EyeforTravel has collated economic, polling and projection data to build a picture of what a referendum means for the UK and European travel markets across all possible scenarios.
The Implications of the UK s EU Membership Referendum for the Travel Industry Disclaimer The information and opinions in this report were prepared by EyeforTravel Ltd and its partners. EyeforTravel Ltd has no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. EyeforTravel Ltd makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In no event shall EyeforTravel Ltd and its partners be liable for any damages, losses, expenses, loss of data, loss of opportunity or profit caused by the use of the material or contents of this report. Author Alex Hadwick EyeforTravel Head of Research No part of this document may be distributed, resold, copied or adapted without EyeforTravel s prior written permission. EyeforTravel Ltd 2015 REFERENDUM FOR THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY 1
INTRODUCTION Introduction The Conservative majority victory in the May 2015 General Election now places a referendum on Britain s membership of the EU right at the forefront of the political agenda. If pre-election plans are carried forward, then the referendum will be held by the end of 2017 at minimum. Whilst most analysts believe that a decision to leave the EU is unlikely, it surely must be entertained, particularly as most pollsters were proven dramatically wrong in respect of the result of the election itself. Just as importantly, the run-up to the referendum promises to bring uncertainty and economic implications of its own. The EU membership debate within the UK is controversial and the sides are widely split. While many believe substantive benefits lie outside the EU, others claim that such a choice would lead to ruin. There is clearly considerable doubt surrounding the economic effects of withdrawal, or indeed what kind of agreement might be reached with the EU afterwards. However, the most likely implications of the referendum taking place are depressed demand and investment in the build-up and, in the event of a break, continued negative pressures on the UK economy that will likely overwhelm any other positive developments. Indeed, for the tourism and leisure sectors the possibilities are far more severe, given their international component. This whitepaper will evaluate the potential effects of a referendum and a vote to leave the EU, both for the British and EU travel and tourism economies. REFERENDUM FOR THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY 2
CONTENTS Contents List of Figures & Tables 4 Key Takeaways 5 The Value of EU Membership.................................6 Inbound Tourism to the UK.............................. 6 Outbound Tourism to the EU..............................6 Economic Outlook: Pre-Referendum............................. 11 Economic Outlook: Post Referendum............................. 12 The UK Votes to Leave................................ 12 The UK Votes to Stay 14 Probable Outcomes of a Referendum............................. 15 Conclusion....................................... 17 References....................................... 18 REFERENDUM FOR THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY 3
LIST OF FIGURES & TABLES List of Figures Figure 1: Top 25 Markets by Volume of Visits (2013).........................7 Figure 2: Top 10 Markets by Spend on UK Visits (2013)....................... 8 Figure 3: Outbound Visits of UK Citizens (2013) 9 Figure 4: Possible Scenarios of a Brexit for Outbound UK Travel.................... 13 Figure 5: If there was a referendum on Britain s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?... 15 List of Tables Table 1: Top 25 Markets by Volume of Visits (2013).........................7 Table 2: Top 10 Markets by Spend on UK Visits (2013)........................9 Table 3: Outbound Visits of UK Citizens (2013).......................... 10 REFERENDUM FOR THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY 4