Company Research 30 Oct 2013 Tse Sui Luen(417.HK) Room for improvement From a low base, Tse Sui Luen (TSL) reported a strong 55% growth in net profit to HK$47.6m for the interim ended 31 st August 2013. The company s double-digit SSSG still underperformed its peers due to product mix geared towards in-house designed jewelry products. To cater for local demand and to raise SSSG, the company plans to transform some of its mainland stores to sell 24-karat gold products and strengthen its brand and service. The stock is trading at a historical PE of 11x and dividend yield of 2.1% in FY13. Net profit jumped 55% from a low base. For the interim ended 31 st August 2013, TSL reported HK$2,129m in revenue and HK$47.6m in net profit (or 23 HK cents per share), up 28.3% and 55.1%, respectively. The strong performance was mainly driven by strong sales of 24-karat gold products. Interim dividend was raised 120% from 1 HK cents per share last year to 2.2 HK cents for FY1H14. SSSG lagged behind its peers. In FY1H14, TSL saw double-digit overall SSSG, which underperformed its peers such as Luk Fook (590.HK) that achieved SSSG of 83% in HK/Macau and 117% in Mainland for 2Q13, and 30% in HK/Macau and 70% in Mainland for 3Q13. We think it was mainly due to difference in product mix: TSL is more or selling in-house designed jewelry products while Luk Fook has more than 55% of its total revenue from selling gold products. Transforming mainland stores for selling gold products. As at 31 August 2013, the company opened 2 new stores in Hong Kong and Macau and 10 outlets in Mainland raising the total number of outlets to 219. In FY2H14, it plans to open 2 more stores in Hong Kong and transforms at least 10 stores in Mainland to sell 24-karat gold products catering for domestic demand. Improving brand image/service for end-user market. We think designed jewelry products are mainly for end-users. As a result, TSL will continue to enhance its brand image and service quality. The company s marketing-team has received the Distinguished Marketing Leadership Award from Hong Kong Retail Management Association, and its staffs have also been awarded the 2013 Outstanding QTS Merchant Service Staff Award from the Hong Kong Tourism Board. Analyst Stephy Wang SFC CE No.:AYC366 00852-2899 3123 stephy.wong@guosen.com.hk Performance 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: Bloomberg Key Data Non-rated Jewelry Sector 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0 0.00 2012/10/30 2013/10/30 HKI 417.HK Price(HK$) 3.80 Shares Outstanding (m) 210 Market Cap. (HK$ m) 798 Free float (%) 27.28% Average Daily Turnover HK$0.465m, 52 Week Range 4.71/3.4 Controlling Shareholder: Partner Logistics Limited (72.72%) BVPS (HK$) 4.70 Debt ratio (%) 15.7% Financial Summary Year to Feb. 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue (HK$ m) 1,959 2,018 2,518 3,359 3,563 Operating Profit (HK$ m) 164 203 217 245 144 Reported Profit (HK$ m) 105 122 176 162 72 Underlying Profit (HK$ m) 105 122 176 162 72 Underlying EPS (HK$) 0.50 0.58 0.84 0.77 0.34 DPS (HK$) 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.08 BVPS (HK$) 2.78 3.43 4.43 4.46 4.70 P/E (x) 7.56 6.55 4.54 4.92 11.07 Dividend Yield (%) 1.3% 2.6% 3.9% 4.0% 2.1% P/B (x) 1.37 1.11 0.86 0.85 0.81 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1
公司报告 非凡增长, 黄金演绎 继上个月周生生公布了抢眼的 2013 中报后, 谢瑞麟也公布了截止 2013 年 8 月 31 日止的中期业绩, 销售额和净利润均录得强劲增长, 分别按年增长 28.3% 和 55% 至 21.29 亿港元和 4,760 万港元 然而上半财年仅双位数的同店销售增长率仍然逊于同业, 主要由于谢瑞麟以珠宝产品为主, 因此购金热潮对公司销售额的拉动相对六福 (590.HK) 和周大福 (1929.HK) 较弱 公司下半财年计划增加内地店铺的黄金产品来满足当地需求, 同时进一步加大品牌文化宣传, 保持优质的服务质素 目前的股价相对于 2013 财年的市盈率为 11 倍, 股息率为 2.1% 净利润同比增长 55%. 截止 2013 年 8 月 31 日, 谢瑞麟的 2014 上半财年收入和纯利分别同比增长 28.3% 和 55% 至 21.29 亿港元和 4,760 万港元, 每股收益 23 港仙 中期股息由去年同期的每股 1 港仙大幅提升 120% 至每股 2.2 港仙 同店销售数据逊于同业. 上半财年双位数的总体同店销售增长率明显落后于同业, 比如六福 (590.HK) 于 2013 年第二季度在港澳地区和大陆地区的同店销售增长率分别高达 83% 和 117%, 第三季度也分别达 30% 和 70% 我们认为主要原因在于产品结构的差异, 谢瑞麟以珠宝产品为主, 而六福的黄金产品占比超过 55% 内地门店转型销售足金产品. 公司于回顾期内净增 10 间门店, 其中香港和澳门分别新增了 1 间门店, 目前门店总数为 219 间 下半财年, 公司将于香港增设 2 间新店, 分别位于尖沙咀中港城和屯门的 V city, 且计划将超过 10 间的内地门店转为销售足金产品来满足当地需求 继续加强品牌文化宣传. 尽管国内送礼市场的需求减弱, 但我们认为珠宝产品更多用于个人需求, 公司的品牌打造计划也在持续进行中, 非凡工艺, 潮流演绎 的品牌文化也更加的深入人心 公司的品牌宣传活动荣获了香港零售管理协会颁发的 2013 年度十大杰出市场策划奖, 事务董事被评为 杰出市场策划人 ; 此外, 集团的员工也获得了香港旅游发展局颁发的 2013 杰出优质商户员工服务奖 称号 分析师 王奕旻证监会中央编号 :.:AYC366 00852-2899 3123 stephy.wong@guosen.com.hk 股价表现 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 资料来源 : 彭博 股票数据 未评级 珠宝行业 0 0.00 2012/10/30 2013/10/30 HKI 417.HK 收盘价 ( 港元 $) 3.80 流通股本 ( 百万 ) 210 总市值 ( 港元亿 ) 798 流通率 (%) 27.28% 日均成交额 HK$0.465m 52 周最高 / 最低 4.71/3.4 主要控股股东 Partner Logistics Limited (72.72%)) 每股净资产 ( 港元 $) 4.70 负债率 (%) 15.7% 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 盈利预测 截至 28/2 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 营业额 ( 港元百万 ) 1,959 2,018 2,518 3,359 3,563 经营盈利 ( 港元百万 ) 164 203 217 245 144 账面盈利 ( 港元百万 ) 105 122 176 162 72 实际盈利 ( 港元百万 ) 105 122 176 162 72 每股实际盈利 ( 港元 ) 0.50 0.58 0.84 0.77 0.34 每股股息 ( 港元 ) 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.08 每股账面价值 ( 港元 ) 2.78 3.43 4.43 4.46 4.70 市盈率 (x) 7.56 6.55 4.54 4.92 11.07 股息率 (%) 1.3% 2.6% 3.9% 4.0% 2.1% 市净率 (x) 1.37 1.11 0.86 0.85 0.81 资料来源 :
Financial Summary Profit & Loss (HK$ m) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Financial Ratios 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A PRC (Including HK and Macao) 1,928 1,995 2,494 3,326 3,529 Revenue growth (%) 2.2% 3.0% 24.8% 33.4% 6.1% Rest of the world 31 23 24 33 34 Operating profit growth (%) -1.8% 23.3% 7.0% 13.0% -41.4% Reported profit growth (%) 5.6% 16.2% 44.7% -7.8% -55.5% Underlying profit growth (%) 5.6% 16.2% 44.7% -7.8% -55.5% Revenue 1,959 2,018 2,518 3,359 3,563 Underlying EPS growth (%) 4.7% 15.3% 44.4% -7.8% -55.5% Cost of sales (921) (953) (1,225) (1,750) (1,895) Dividend growth (%) 66.7% 100.0% 47.0% 3.4% -47.4% Gross profit 1,039 1,065 1,293 1,609 1,668 Dividend payout (%) 9.9% 17.2% 17.6% 19.7% 23.3% Other net income 37 10 6 15 8 Gross profit margin (%) 53.0% 52.8% 51.3% 47.9% 46.8% SG&A expenses (911) (872) (1,082) (1,379) (1,532) Operating profit margin (%) 8.4% 10.1% 8.6% 7.3% 4.0% Operating profit 164 203 217 245 144 Underlying profit margin (%) 5.3% 6.0% 7.0% 4.8% 2.0% Finance costs (7) (4) (6) (9) (44) ROE (%) 18.1% 16.9% 18.9% 17.3% 7.3% Write back of tax surcharge 0 0 19 0 0 ROA (%) 8.6% 8.3% 10.0% 7.7% 3.3% Gain on disposal of land and buildings 2 0 0 0 0 Net debt/equity (%) 87.5% 77.8% 76.7% 112.4% 103.8% Profit before taxation 160 199 231 236 100 Net debt/total assets (%) 41.8% 38.4% 40.4% 50.3% 46.2% Taxation (35) (52) (30) (55) (28) Current ratio (%) 179.8% 184.6% 201.8% 172.3% 217.3% Non-controlling interests 20 25 24 19 (0) Interest cover (x) 15.8 41.6 30.7 20.9 6.1 Net profit 105 122 176 162 72 Dividend cover (x) 10.1 5.8 5.7 5.1 4.3 Balance Sheet HK$ m) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Cash Flows (HK$ m) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Fixed assets 135 119 125 138 131 Operating profit 160 199 231 236 100 Associates & JCE 0 0 0 0 0 Depreciation & amortization 47 43 42 55 55 Others 27 23 20 45 57 Interest income (0) (1) (1) (0) (0) Non-current assets 162 141 144 183 188 Others 10 (4) (23) 6 43 Inventories 761 955 1,268 1,593 1,585 Change in working capital (33) (111) (267) (255) (97) Debtors & prepayments 0 0 0 0 0 Tax paid (55) (60) (64) (47) (75) Bank deposits & cash 105 158 104 58 186 Operating activities 128 67 (82) (6) 26 Others 185 204 253 261 262 Purchase of non-current assets (45) (27) (44) (61) (41) Current assets 1,050 1,317 1,625 1,912 2,032 Disposal of non-current assets 4 0 0 0 0 Bank & other borrowings 112 150 214 437 374 Associates & JCE (net) 0 0 0 0 0 Trade & payables 393 501 554 633 556 Interest received 0 1 1 0 0 Taxation 79 62 37 40 5 Purchase of Intangibles 0 0 0 0 (0) Current liabilities 584 713 805 1,110 935 Investing activities (40) (26) (43) (61) (41) Bank & other borrowings 20 0 0 0 0 New loans raised 0 40 44 30 10 Others 30 24 31 47 297 Repayment of loans (19) (20) (13) (18) (57) Non-current liabilities 49 24 31 47 297 Dividends paid (6) (11) (23) (31) (28) Net assets 579 721 932 938 989 Others (22) (0) 26 21 219 Share capital 52 53 53 53 53 Financing activities (47) 9 35 2 144 Premium & reserves 459 575 759 886 936 Inc/(dec) in cash 41 50 (90) (65) 129 Shareholders' funds 511 627 812 938 989 Cash at beginning of year 53 105 158 104 58 Non-controlling interests 68 93 121 0 (0) Foreign exchange effect 11 3 36 19 (2) Total equity 579 721 932 938 989 Cash at end of year 105 158 104 58 186 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 3
Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 4
信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上 利益披露声明 报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何 财务权益 本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包 括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇 员 免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个 别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报 告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 5