South Baldwin County, Alabama (Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bon Secour, Elberta, and Foley) Are You Diversified? By: Henry B. Burdg Director, Auburn Technical Assistance Center (ATAC), Auburn University September 6, 2010 It is generally understood that a diversified economy is less sensitive to the up and down variations in any one particular industry as the risk is spread across a number of industries. WikiAnswers states, a diversified economy is one that is based on more than one thing; it's based on manufacturing, agriculture, trade, etc. rather than just one of those things. Recent economic fallout from the BP oil spill coupled with the deep down cycle of the U.S./World economy have citizens and leaders of the Gulf Coast looking for strategies to stem the near term crisis and minimize potential for these impacts to occur again in the longer term. The Alabama Gulf Coast region, known as South Baldwin County, is one of the most impacted areas. For the longer term, one approach is to make sure the area s industry is structurally diversified. Fans of Jim Cramer, host of CNBC s Mad Money, know Jim is always preaching the virtues of a diversified investment portfolio and weekly runs a show segment where viewers share their investment decisions asking Jim, Am I Diversified? So in a similar vein, South Baldwin County Are You Diversified? With structural diversification, even if some of the industry sectors are distressed other stronger industry sectors can sustain or grow the economy. If there are many industry sectors present and in balanced proportions, then there is a potential for employment in some sectors to compensate for employment loss in other sectors. The general position is that the more diversified an economy becomes, the more resistant it becomes to external events and developments. For the Gulf Coast seems to be the epicenter of the Perfect 100 Year Storm; the global economic recession and the BP oil spill that eliminated the summer tourism and fishing season. Add the cyclical nature of the beach tourism economy you have the makings of a record bad economic year. There is no quick fix but taking a glimpse at the structural makeup of the regional economy to gather factual data will help community leaders make informed decisions about the future. Some measures of estimated economic diversity for South Baldwin County depend on the difference in industrial structure between South Baldwin County and Alabama as a whole, some of the major differences between the two economies are discussed below. For this analysis, the South Baldwin Economic study area is made up of the five zip code areas in South Baldwin County. See Figure 1, Zip Map South Baldwin Economic Study Area. In total, there are some 1,734 business establishments with 19,813 paid employees generating $530.7 million in annual payroll. The various sub economies are Figure 1 Zip Map South Baldwin Economic Study Area unique in themselves but in total is a fair Henry B. Burdg, Auburn Technical Assistance Center (ATAC) 2010 Auburn University Page 1
representation of life in South Baldwin County; however one could argue that the economies of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are much different than the economies of Foley, Elberta, and Bon Secour. That is a topic for future analyses however a data table has been included in the appendix with specific information for each zip area as well as Alabama and the United States. Summary information for each zip area is shown in Table 1, South Baldwin Economic Study Area. Table 1 South Baldwin Economic Study Area Zip Central City Establishments Paid Employees Annual Payroll 36535 Foley 789 10,413 $286,118,000 36542 Gulf Shores 449 4,930 $126,266,000 36561 Orange Beach 356 3,368 $87,285,000 36530 Elberta 111 707 $19,542,000 36511 Bon Secour 29 395 $11,515,000 Total 1,734 19,813 $530,726,000 Source U. S. Census Bureau, 2008 Zip Code Business Patterns Establishment and employment data for the five zip code areas were compiled from the 2008 County Business Patterns published by the U. S. Census Bureau as Zip Code Business Patterns. Zip Code Business Patterns cover most of the country's economic activity. The series excludes data on selfemployed individuals, employees of private households, railroad employees, agricultural production employees, and most government employees. For information on businesses with no paid employees, refer to U. S. Census Bureau s Nonemployer Statistics. Nonemployer Statistics is an annual series of information about businesses without paid employees that are subject to federal income tax. Most nonemployers are self employed individuals operating very small unincorporated businesses, which may or may not be the owner's principal source of income. These firms are excluded from most other business statistics. Nonemployers account for a majority of all business establishments, but average less than 4 percent of all sales or receipts. Data is provided at the county level but not at the zip code level so this data has not been included in this analysis. This analysis is taking a snapshot in time, March 2008, the most current data available. Business establishments are classified using the 2 digit NAICS (North American Industry Classification) system. Employment for each industry segment is shown as percent of total employment for both the South Baldwin County study area and Alabama. See Table 2. The data show the industry sectors with the most employment for South Baldwin County are Retail Trade 26.08%, Accommodation and Food Service 19.74%, Health Care and Social Assistance 9.09%, and Construction 7.80%. The industry sectors with the most employment for Alabama are Manufacturing 16.26%, Retail Trade 14.22%, Health Care and Social Assistance 13.96%, and Accommodation and Food Services 9.31%. The comparison provides further insights into differences in the industrial structure between the two economies. In terms of shares in total employment, the Retail Trade (44) and Accommodation and Food Services (72) sectors were much larger in South Baldwin County than Alabama, while the Manufacturing (31) sector was relatively much larger in Alabama than in South Baldwin County. These relative differences in sector employment are calculated for each sector and listed in Table 2 as Gap. Negative gap numbers occur when the relative sector employment in the Alabama economy is larger than the Henry B. Burdg, Auburn Technical Assistance Center (ATAC) 2010 Auburn University Page 2
Table 2 South Baldwin Economic Study Area Industry Sector Employment Analysis South NAICS Industry Sector Alabama Baldwin Gap County 11 Forestry, fishing, hunting, and Agriculture Support 0.38% 0.05% 0.33% 21 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 0.45% 0.12% 0.33% 22 Utilities 0.87% 0.17% 0.70% 23 Construction 6.56% 7.80% +1.24% 31 Manufacturing 16.26% 3.49% 12.77% 42 Wholesale trade 4.65% 1.83% 2.82% 44 Retail trade 14.22% 26.08% +11.86% 48 Transportation and warehousing 3.49% 1.01% 2.48% 51 Information 2.24% 2.30% +0.06% 52 Finance and insurance 4.28% 3.65% 0.63% 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 1.58% 5.08% +3.50% 54 Professional, scientific and technical services 5.58% 3.48% 2.10% 55 Management of companies and enterprises 1.06% 0.25% 0.81% 56 Administrative & support & Waste Mgt. & Remediation Srvs. 7.72% 5.70% 2.02% 61 Educational services 1.61% 1.34% 0.27% 62 Health care and social assistance 13.96% 9.09% 4.87% 71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.05% 3.17% +2.12% 72 Accommodation and food services 9.31% 19.74% +10.43% 81 Other services (except public administration) 4.73% 3.57% 1.16% 99 Industries not classified 0.01% 0.07% +0.06% Total 100.00% 100.00% 0% Percent 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Percent Employment within Industry Sector Alabama vs. South Baldwin County (2008) 11 21 22 23 31 42 44 48 51 52 53 54 55 56 61 62 71 72 81 99 Industry Sector Alabama South Baldwin County Figure 2 Industrial Sector Employment Comparison Henry B. Burdg, Auburn Technical Assistance Center (ATAC) 2010 Auburn University Page 3
relative sector employment in the South Baldwin County economy. A graphical representation of the industrial sector employment comparison is shown in Figure 2. So back to the Jim Cramer question, Am I diversified? The data show employment in South Baldwin County in all 20 NAICS industry sectors. When you take into account that the sectors of retail trade, real estate and rental, arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services are all tightly linked to the cyclical beach tourism season (some 54% of employment) you see that a lot of the economic eggs are in one basket. The big structural economic sector gap occurs in manufacturing followed by health care. So the answer is South Baldwin County is not diversified as of March 2008. The goal of this analysis was to look at a set of facts. This analysis does not look at the historical transition of the South Baldwin economy, the changes in the economy from the past to current or the planned changes that are already underway for the future. This analysis is also not a criticism for or against anyone s leadership, any community s economic condition or any planned development strategies. The analysis is intended to aid those in leadership by having data from which to make decisions. Henry B. Burdg, Auburn Technical Assistance Center (ATAC) 2010 Auburn University Page 4
(A) NAICS (B) Industry Sector Appendix Data Table Percent Employment by Industry Sector (C) Foley (D) Gulf Shores (E) Orange Beach (F) Elberta (G) Bon Secour (H) Foley + Bon Secour + Elberta (I) Gulf Shores + Orange Beach (J) United States (K) Alabama (L) South Baldwin County 11 Forestry, fishing, hunting, and Agriculture Support 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.00% 0.14% 0.38% 0.05% 21 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.00% 0.52% 0.45% 0.12% 22 Utilities 0.00% 0.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 0.53% 0.87% 0.17% 23 Construction 6.28% 9.99% 7.62% 19.26% 16.92% 7.45% 9.06% 5.83% 6.56% 7.80% 31 Manufacturing 5.16% 0.97% 1.23% 10.48% 35.82% 6.56% 1.07% 10.83% 16.26% 3.49% 42 Wholesale trade 2.13% 1.01% 1.40% 6.80% 32.84% 3.49% 1.17% 5.10% 4.65% 1.83% 44 Retail trade 30.71% 22.55% 23.01% 13.74% 2.49% 28.68% 22.74% 12.92% 14.22% 26.08% 48 Transportation and warehousing 0.65% 1.33% 1.40% 2.55% 1.49% 0.80% 1.36% 3.67% 3.49% 1.01% 51 Information 2.59% 3.20% 0.73% 0.28% 0.00% 2.36% 2.23% 2.84% 2.24% 2.30% 52 Finance and insurance 3.71% 2.99% 4.67% 4.67% 0.50% 3.66% 3.66% 5.39% 4.28% 3.65% 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 1.44% 8.98% 11.68% 0.57% 0.00% 1.34% 10.05% 1.82% 1.58% 5.08% 54 Professional, scientific and technical services 3.77% 3.51% 2.98% 3.40% 0.50% 3.63% 3.30% 6.64% 5.58% 3.48% 55 Management of companies and enterprises 0.02% 0.00% 1.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.55% 2.39% 1.06% 0.25% 56 Administrative & support & Waste Mgt. & Remediation Srvs. 6.55% 5.13% 2.69% 15.30% 4.23% 7.01% 4.16% 8.46% 7.72% 5.70% 61 Educational services 0.90% 0.71% 3.97% 0.57% 0.00% 0.85% 2.00% 2.60% 1.61% 1.34% 62 Health care and social assistance 15.45% 2.36% 1.55% 7.08% 0.00% 14.40% 2.04% 14.24% 13.96% 9.09% 71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.49% 7.15% 2.72% 2.41% 0.50% 1.51% 5.40% 1.71% 1.05% 3.17% 72 Accommodation and food services 16.21% 24.06% 29.09% 5.52% 3.73% 15.12% 26.05% 9.86% 9.31% 19.74% 81 Other services (except public administration) 2.44% 5.38% 3.86% 7.37% 1.00% 2.70% 4.78% 4.51% 4.73% 3.57% 99 Industries not classified 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.07% Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Source: U. S. Census Bureau, 2008 Zip Code Business Patterns Henry B. Burdg, Auburn Technical Assistance Center (ATAC) 2010 Auburn University Page 5